GOLD : Märkte und Informationen

Zitat von auratico

Ob man das einfach so erwarten kann ganz ohne Blick auf die anderen Anlageklassen? Sollte der inzwischen schon von der Mainstreampresse als überzogen empfundene Aktienmarkt einbrechen, würde dies dem Dollar wie gehabt wieder einen spürbaren Boost geben und dem Gold kaum guttun. Für wie lange eine solche interimistische Dollarerholung dann halten könnte, ist eine schwer vorhersehbare Frage.

Bisher jedenfalls hat noch jeder heftige Fall der US-Börsen die Anleger in die Schatzanleihen getrieben - was der US-Regierung nur Recht sein könnte. Danach kann man den Dow ja in bewährter PPT-Manier wieder erneut anschieben und ein YoYo-Muster inszenieren......(.....)

Grüße
auratico

Volle Übereinstimmung, daß die einzelnen Märkte kein Eigenleben führen. Daß das Pendel zwischen Bonds und Aktien hin-und herschwingt, ist fast naturgesetzlich.
Aaber: Wir sprechen über den Dollar und sein Motherland, die USA. US Großanleger und Spekulanten haben kaum eine andere Wahl
Kein gescheiter Nicht - US Großinvestor jedoch dürfte künftig größere Beträge in den größten Schuldner der Weltgeschichte stecken, ja, China ein wenig wegen seiner Geschäfte, aber die $ werden zunehmend flugs in internationale Rohstoffgeschäfte investiert.

Gestern hatte ich die vorzügliche Analyse von Egon von Greyerz – Matterhorn Asset Management hereingestellt bzgl. Gold:

GOLD : Märkte und Informationen

Hier der Auszug über den Dollar und dessen Vasallen,das brit. Pfund:

"....US Dollar UK Pound (and many other currencies) will have major falls

Both the US and UK governments have for years printed their currencies. From 2007 when the current crisis started the printing of dollars and pounds have accelerated. In the case of the US dollar we are looking at trillions of new dollars. So when money is created which has only air behind it and no assets or substance, is this money not worthless? Yes of course it is but because governments and financial institutions worldwide have benefited from a strongish dollar, no one has said that the emperor is naked although everyone knows he is.
Supporting the dollar has also benefited the Chinese who have built up their own industrial base by financing the US deficits and excesses. But the Chinese with over $ 2 trillion in reserves of which as much as 2/3 could be in US dollars have now said in their veiled but very clear language: “The Emperor has no clothes”. The Chinese have now told the US to clean up their act but the Chinese know and the Americans know that their is no chance whatsoever that the US can reduce their deficits and dollar printing.
Therefore the dollar is living on borrowed time and as we outlined in last month’s newsletter “The Dark Years Are Here”, the autumn of 2009 will see a precipitous fall of the dollar. It will be relentless and greater than anyone can imagine. There is always a day of reckoning when the law of supply and demand is out of kilter and that day is now here. The move will be unexpected by many and this will mean that everyone will run for the exit and dump their dollars thus exacerbating the fall.....“

http://matterhornassetmanageme…newsletter/?newsletter=21

Grüsse
Edel Man

Zitat von Edel Man

(.....)
Kein gescheiter Nicht - US Großinvestor jedoch dürfte künftig größere Beträge in den größten Schuldner der Weltgeschichte stecken
(....)
Grüsse
Edel Man

So die Überschrift eines Artikels einer Analyse von Michael Lynch "the Dollar´s Fate"für nytimes.com !! (Fate = Schicksal)
Wie sich die Einschätzungen ähneln !

Kommentar von Sinclair:
"Jede Einschätzung des Dollar als "Safe Haven" verstößt gegen normalen Verstand."

"Summary

Professor of History Kennedy notes debate about the reserve status of the U.S. Dollar. The issue arose at the G-20 meeting in London in April and again in Yekaterinburg two months later when Brazil, Russia, China and India discussed shifting out of the dollar. Italian scholar Antonio Mosconi wrote in " The World Supremacy of the Dollar at the Rendering (1917-2008 )" that the dollar is the currency of the "empire of debt" and as such, is in its last convulsion. This crisis is not like the others.

Analysis

The mainspring of the American commercial and industrial system is broken. If it is not repaired, and soon, the general economy will continue to spiral down into lethargy. This will inevitably lead to political consequences now only dimly foreseen. The town hall demonstrations during the congressional summer recess were subtle indications that Americans are beginning to realize that the functionaries cannot cope with the gathering storm. The eye of this awesome turbulence now looming well above the horizon is the ruined U.S. Treasury. Plans to run the national debt up to $9 billion by 2019 have catastrophic dimensions. With a currency that has no future, the political game cannot long go on. The only exit strategy remaining now is default which the government is reluctant to embrace (to say the least). The current financial philosophy leads to eventual chaos. ....

If the American system continues to drift, as it seems certain to do, then Brazil, Russia, India and China, and others will take whatever steps are necessary to pull their own systems back from the abyss (which they are now clearly doing). From this will emerge an international system of trade with the U.S.A. largely excluded unless gold is used to pay for transactions. When the gold is gone, international transactions cease. None of the above suggests that the world is coming to an end. The Soviet Union, for much of its 70 year tenure was not a world power. Modern Russia is still a work-in-progress. China, only now, is coming into its own. India has unrealized potential. Brazil, with great oil potential promises to be a power for years. The European Union will prosper. Life will go on, even for Americans, but their standards of living will decrease as the dollar fades."

http://jsmineset.com/2009/09/01/in-the-news-today-299/

http://www.glgroup.com/News/Do…anana-republic-42857.html

Grüsse
Edel Man

Gold saisonal haben wir schon öfter diskutiert, Wiederholung schadet aber nicht :

"We’re heading into September next week, so it’s a good time to revisit the historic seasonality of gold and gold stocks.

Over the past four decades, September has been the best time for gold in terms of its month-over-month price appreciation. You can see this on the chart below – in a typical year, the price of gold in September rises 2.5 percent above its August price.

The gold price has risen in 16 of the 20 Septembers since 1989, by far the best success ratio of any month of the year.....

Based on the long-term record, this may represent a good time for investors who want to establish or add to a gold or gold-stock position in advance of seasonal demand growth. The guidance provided by historical patterns may improve the chances for investment success, but of course, there are no guarantees that this September will follow the well-established trend....."

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1251730009.php
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Zitat von GoldmanSachse

Hat noch jemand Goldschmuck oder Zahngold zur Verfügung?

[url]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtRUY_AH458&feature=related[/url]

Humorige Werbung ! "CashForGold" scheint allmählich dort notwendig zu werden....

Grüsse

... meint Mogambo Guru alias Richard Daughty. Den werde ich mal wieder öfter, wie früher, zur Aufmunterung hereinstellen, obgleich -- oder weil -- seine Beiträge bei allem Humor ätzende Kritik verbreiten....

"....She doesn’t make a point of it, but back then, the dollar was still gold, and thanks to the loathsome Federal Reserve creating the money to finance the bubbles of The Roaring Twenties that resulted in the Great Depression, the despicable Supreme Court infamously ruled in 1933 (and upheld by every traitorous Supreme Court case since then) that, contrary to what the Constitution said, the dollar did not have to be made of silver or gold, and that a paper “fiat” currency could be created, without limit, for any reason, even at a mere whim, anytime, day or night, 24/7, including holidays, not realizing that they were the idiots that REALLY destroyed the dollar! Gaahhh!....

But those days are all over now, and the only people who are buying gold, along with silver and oil, are the people who know what happens to an unsound, fiat currency (like the dollar) in the hands of a government composed of a bunch of socialist, commie-think yahoos (like the US Congress) that willingly deficit-spends insane amounts of money thanks to a central bank (like the Federal Reserve) creating it and a population sitting around saying, “Duh! Okay with us!” Hahaha!...."

http://news.goldseek.com/RichardDaughty/1251784920.php

.

Zitat von bettelmann

(....)
Sag mal "Edel" wie ist denn das jetzt? Kommt der so heraufbeschworene "Absturz" des "EM" ... so ähnlich wie letztes Jahr, oder war es das dann schon gewesen?
(....)
Gruss auch

bettelmann

Aber wer hat den "Absturz" herbeigeredet?? Doch vor allem Prechterianer-- und die sind momentan etwas ruhig....

Die Frage an mich ist fast überflüssig, denn ich bin wirklich einer der gaaanz wenigen, die
--- Den Ausbruch nach oben seit einiger Zeit erwarten
--- Besonders das große Bild immer wieder berufen, dh. die Langfristentwicklung.

Wer hoch physisch investiert ist, sieht eher das große Bild, Trader die Kurzfristentwicklung.

Kurzum: September /saisonal spricht nichts dagegn, daß wir endlich die 1000 packen.
Wenn wir Pech haben, oder die Cabal gegen uns, dauerts eben was länger,spätesten mit dem Absturz des $ etwa Ende 2009 ist nach oben alles offen.

So meine Einschätzung.

Grüsse
Edel Man

Zitat von wassergeist

ich kenn aber viel wenige ...

gruss wg

btw. es goldsfüchsle is wohl im urlaub.

Hast recht, WG. Ersetze "erwarten" durch "prognostiziere". (häßliches Wort)
Erwarten ist oft doppeldeutig....

goldfüchsle hat sich evtll. in den Elliottwellen verheddert.

.