GOLD : Märkte und Informationen

Ein wunderbarer Artikel von Egon von Greyerz – Matterhorn Asset Management.!!

Eine Fülle von Informationen,Einschätzungen ... und Empfehlungen:

"...With world debt probably increasing by as much as $7.5 trillion in 2009, there will be at least 100 times more paper money created than new gold produced...

A wealth preservation portfolio should contain the following elements:

* Physical gold stored outside the banking system. Gold is likely to reach $1,400-$1,600 in 2009 and much higher in the next few years.
* A much smaller percentage of physical silver, also stored outside the banking system, Silver is considerably more volatile than gold so it is not for the faint hearted. Silver is currently $14.30 and could reach $25-30 in 2009 and considerably higher thereafter.
* Gold and some silver mining stocks in a combination of some of the majors and some junior mining companies. The gearing to price increases in gold and silver is substantial, especially in the juniors which could go up manifold...."

http://matterhornassetmanageme…newsletter/?newsletter=21

Grüsse

Der Artikel geht auch ins Kleinere, aber davon hören und sehen wir genug....

Besonders sehenswert der Langzeitchart seit Beginn des Bullenmarktes:

"...The chart you see below is the entire 21st CENTURY LONG TERM BULL MARKET since it began. It is characterized by a MAIN BLACK CHANNEL that shows gold's price support around $750 and price resistance around $1100. But if you look closer you can see some smaller channel lines that exist within the big black channel. In fact, there are three, the 1999 orange channel, the 2005 green channel and the 2007 purple trend line. Notice how price is just supporting at the green trend line and how the orange and purple lines are in a price area of 850 to 925 at this current time. This is a very important medium term price support area for gold. A breach of the 830 area would suggest that gold's price would return to test the bottom black uptrend channel line at around 750.

Upside potential

Gold has been trading within the green channel parameter lines since 2006, and as long as gold remains above the 925 area, this channel will be intact and prices will be poised to MOVE HIGHER into a MAJOR BREAKOUT above the top black channel line and the major bull market uptrend will resume this fall....."

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1251723600.php

Grüsse

...für Gold, meint Bed Schmitt und verweist auf den massiven Schuldenanstieg der USA.

"... If the quantity of dollars does not expand, the dollar price of Gold should not rise. Now, is this situation a longer term cap on the price of $Gold as it has been for some months? No, and politics is the reason.

"....Recently, the forecast for the U.S. government deficit for the next decade was raised to $9 trillion. That, however, is the rosy scenario! Reality means adding about 50% to that number to get closer to the actual number. Spending is the first tool to which politicians turn when the polls go south. We can expect the Obama Regime and Congress to spend with enthusiasm in the coming year...."

http://news.goldseek.com/NedSchmidt/1251784980.php

Grüsse

Zitat von Henry

Der Goldkurs wird erklärbar
http://www.leap2020.eu/Der-Gol…wird-erklarbar_a3745.html
Gruß Henry

LEAP /GEAB bringt es -- wie so oft -- auf den Punkt,hier :

Zitat

Hierzu ist aber angesichts der Umtriebe der großen internationalen Banken und der unzureichenden Rigorosität der Aufsichtsbehörden der Finanzmärkte während der letzten zwei Jahre wenig Optimismus berechtigt. Die Banken haben sich wie Betrüger benommen und scheinen auch jetzt ihr Geschäftsgebaren nicht sonderlich geändert zu haben; und die Aufsichtsbehörden, insbs. an der Wall street und in der City of London, die die wichtigsten Goldmärkte weltweit sind, waren ihre Komplizen (2).

Wir gehen davon aus, dass in der gegenwärtigen Situation, in der viele großen Banken und Finanzinstitute um ihre Überleben kämpfen müssen, es sehr naiv wäre zu glauben, dass die Aufsichtsbehörden an den Goldmärkten sich lediglich der Durchsetzung der bestehenden Regelungen im Interesse eines fairen und effizienten Marktes widmen würden. Denn das wäre nachteilig für den Dollar,...

Auch beachtenswert die Grafik, viel zu wenig von der Mainstream beachtet (wenn überhaupt ).

Grüsse

Nun; Wenn das Umfrageergebnis des Forums 1310 $ Ende 2009 eintreffen sollte, wäre 1500 $ nicht mehr so arg weit weg:

Umfrage: Wie steht Gold am Jahresende 2009 in Euro ?

Dennoch ambitioniert. Der geniale Martin Armstrong hält ein Ziel von 1350 - 1750 $ in 2010-12 für wahrscheinlich, eher mehr...

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Zitat von ballerina

(.....)
Zu den vielen Prognosen bringe ich noch einmal den Forumsklassiker: wenn die Währung kloppst oder die Banken abtauchen, ist es völlig wurscht, wo der POG steht. Wie soll man einen wahren Wert (Gold) messen mit
Papierwährungen, die nicht mal mehr Papierwert haben ??? Und nochmal von meiner Seite: der POG in Dollar interessiert mich einen feuchten ......., ich bezahle alles in EURO.

Viele Grüße

ballerina

Nichts Neues, hübsche Tänzerin. Da geht es uns hier (fast) allen so.

Nur: Das Goldkartell manipuliert nun mal in $, und so prominent sind wir nicht, daß unsere PROGNOSEN in € weltweit verbreitet werden.

Umfrage: Wie steht Gold am Jahresende 2009 in Euro ?

Eine ganz andere Sache ist, wer die schwächste der großen Währungen ist, und da setze ich seit langem auf den Dollar als solche.

Anders formuliert : Der große Schwächling Dollar wird nach meiner festen Überzeugung gegen den schwachen Euro deutlich nachgeben.

Grüsse
Edel Man

Zitat von auratico

Ob man das einfach so erwarten kann ganz ohne Blick auf die anderen Anlageklassen? Sollte der inzwischen schon von der Mainstreampresse als überzogen empfundene Aktienmarkt einbrechen, würde dies dem Dollar wie gehabt wieder einen spürbaren Boost geben und dem Gold kaum guttun. Für wie lange eine solche interimistische Dollarerholung dann halten könnte, ist eine schwer vorhersehbare Frage.

Bisher jedenfalls hat noch jeder heftige Fall der US-Börsen die Anleger in die Schatzanleihen getrieben - was der US-Regierung nur Recht sein könnte. Danach kann man den Dow ja in bewährter PPT-Manier wieder erneut anschieben und ein YoYo-Muster inszenieren......(.....)

Grüße
auratico

Volle Übereinstimmung, daß die einzelnen Märkte kein Eigenleben führen. Daß das Pendel zwischen Bonds und Aktien hin-und herschwingt, ist fast naturgesetzlich.
Aaber: Wir sprechen über den Dollar und sein Motherland, die USA. US Großanleger und Spekulanten haben kaum eine andere Wahl
Kein gescheiter Nicht - US Großinvestor jedoch dürfte künftig größere Beträge in den größten Schuldner der Weltgeschichte stecken, ja, China ein wenig wegen seiner Geschäfte, aber die $ werden zunehmend flugs in internationale Rohstoffgeschäfte investiert.

Gestern hatte ich die vorzügliche Analyse von Egon von Greyerz – Matterhorn Asset Management hereingestellt bzgl. Gold:

GOLD : Märkte und Informationen

Hier der Auszug über den Dollar und dessen Vasallen,das brit. Pfund:

"....US Dollar UK Pound (and many other currencies) will have major falls

Both the US and UK governments have for years printed their currencies. From 2007 when the current crisis started the printing of dollars and pounds have accelerated. In the case of the US dollar we are looking at trillions of new dollars. So when money is created which has only air behind it and no assets or substance, is this money not worthless? Yes of course it is but because governments and financial institutions worldwide have benefited from a strongish dollar, no one has said that the emperor is naked although everyone knows he is.
Supporting the dollar has also benefited the Chinese who have built up their own industrial base by financing the US deficits and excesses. But the Chinese with over $ 2 trillion in reserves of which as much as 2/3 could be in US dollars have now said in their veiled but very clear language: “The Emperor has no clothes”. The Chinese have now told the US to clean up their act but the Chinese know and the Americans know that their is no chance whatsoever that the US can reduce their deficits and dollar printing.
Therefore the dollar is living on borrowed time and as we outlined in last month’s newsletter “The Dark Years Are Here”, the autumn of 2009 will see a precipitous fall of the dollar. It will be relentless and greater than anyone can imagine. There is always a day of reckoning when the law of supply and demand is out of kilter and that day is now here. The move will be unexpected by many and this will mean that everyone will run for the exit and dump their dollars thus exacerbating the fall.....“

http://matterhornassetmanageme…newsletter/?newsletter=21

Grüsse
Edel Man

Zitat von Edel Man

(.....)
Kein gescheiter Nicht - US Großinvestor jedoch dürfte künftig größere Beträge in den größten Schuldner der Weltgeschichte stecken
(....)
Grüsse
Edel Man

So die Überschrift eines Artikels einer Analyse von Michael Lynch "the Dollar´s Fate"für nytimes.com !! (Fate = Schicksal)
Wie sich die Einschätzungen ähneln !

Kommentar von Sinclair:
"Jede Einschätzung des Dollar als "Safe Haven" verstößt gegen normalen Verstand."

"Summary

Professor of History Kennedy notes debate about the reserve status of the U.S. Dollar. The issue arose at the G-20 meeting in London in April and again in Yekaterinburg two months later when Brazil, Russia, China and India discussed shifting out of the dollar. Italian scholar Antonio Mosconi wrote in " The World Supremacy of the Dollar at the Rendering (1917-2008 )" that the dollar is the currency of the "empire of debt" and as such, is in its last convulsion. This crisis is not like the others.

Analysis

The mainspring of the American commercial and industrial system is broken. If it is not repaired, and soon, the general economy will continue to spiral down into lethargy. This will inevitably lead to political consequences now only dimly foreseen. The town hall demonstrations during the congressional summer recess were subtle indications that Americans are beginning to realize that the functionaries cannot cope with the gathering storm. The eye of this awesome turbulence now looming well above the horizon is the ruined U.S. Treasury. Plans to run the national debt up to $9 billion by 2019 have catastrophic dimensions. With a currency that has no future, the political game cannot long go on. The only exit strategy remaining now is default which the government is reluctant to embrace (to say the least). The current financial philosophy leads to eventual chaos. ....

If the American system continues to drift, as it seems certain to do, then Brazil, Russia, India and China, and others will take whatever steps are necessary to pull their own systems back from the abyss (which they are now clearly doing). From this will emerge an international system of trade with the U.S.A. largely excluded unless gold is used to pay for transactions. When the gold is gone, international transactions cease. None of the above suggests that the world is coming to an end. The Soviet Union, for much of its 70 year tenure was not a world power. Modern Russia is still a work-in-progress. China, only now, is coming into its own. India has unrealized potential. Brazil, with great oil potential promises to be a power for years. The European Union will prosper. Life will go on, even for Americans, but their standards of living will decrease as the dollar fades."

http://jsmineset.com/2009/09/01/in-the-news-today-299/

http://www.glgroup.com/News/Do…anana-republic-42857.html

Grüsse
Edel Man

Gold saisonal haben wir schon öfter diskutiert, Wiederholung schadet aber nicht :

"We’re heading into September next week, so it’s a good time to revisit the historic seasonality of gold and gold stocks.

Over the past four decades, September has been the best time for gold in terms of its month-over-month price appreciation. You can see this on the chart below – in a typical year, the price of gold in September rises 2.5 percent above its August price.

The gold price has risen in 16 of the 20 Septembers since 1989, by far the best success ratio of any month of the year.....

Based on the long-term record, this may represent a good time for investors who want to establish or add to a gold or gold-stock position in advance of seasonal demand growth. The guidance provided by historical patterns may improve the chances for investment success, but of course, there are no guarantees that this September will follow the well-established trend....."

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1251730009.php
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Zitat von GoldmanSachse

Hat noch jemand Goldschmuck oder Zahngold zur Verfügung?

[url]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtRUY_AH458&feature=related[/url]

Humorige Werbung ! "CashForGold" scheint allmählich dort notwendig zu werden....

Grüsse

... meint Mogambo Guru alias Richard Daughty. Den werde ich mal wieder öfter, wie früher, zur Aufmunterung hereinstellen, obgleich -- oder weil -- seine Beiträge bei allem Humor ätzende Kritik verbreiten....

"....She doesn’t make a point of it, but back then, the dollar was still gold, and thanks to the loathsome Federal Reserve creating the money to finance the bubbles of The Roaring Twenties that resulted in the Great Depression, the despicable Supreme Court infamously ruled in 1933 (and upheld by every traitorous Supreme Court case since then) that, contrary to what the Constitution said, the dollar did not have to be made of silver or gold, and that a paper “fiat” currency could be created, without limit, for any reason, even at a mere whim, anytime, day or night, 24/7, including holidays, not realizing that they were the idiots that REALLY destroyed the dollar! Gaahhh!....

But those days are all over now, and the only people who are buying gold, along with silver and oil, are the people who know what happens to an unsound, fiat currency (like the dollar) in the hands of a government composed of a bunch of socialist, commie-think yahoos (like the US Congress) that willingly deficit-spends insane amounts of money thanks to a central bank (like the Federal Reserve) creating it and a population sitting around saying, “Duh! Okay with us!” Hahaha!...."

http://news.goldseek.com/RichardDaughty/1251784920.php

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