GOLD : Märkte und Informationen

Edel Man · 28. November 2008

....könnte den Goldpreis höher treiben:

"Based on the assumption that current strong physical gold demand highlights an existing supply deficit, Toronto's Wellington West Capital Markets forecasts that, "if the increased structural deficit in gold supply continues, gold prices should adjust higher."

Wellington metals analysts also advised, "Given the potential change in market fundamentals, we believe it is time investors revisit investing in the junior and intermediate gold producers."

The analysts said their data indicates that a Central Bank Gold Agreement (CBGA) signatory "has become a gold buyer, putting further pressure on the existing supply deficit in the bullion market." In their analysis, Wellington suggests that China is building a strategic gold reserve.

Meanwhile, possible Russian, Ecuadorian and Iranian gold liquidation in the face of internal credit woes "has not fazed the market," the analysts advised.

Analysts Catherine Gignac, Paolo Lostritto, John Miniotis, and Ryan Walker also noted that investment demand for physical gold increased by 179% in the third quarter of this year...."

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb…age33?oid=73950&sn=Detail

Grüsse

Edel Man · 28. November 2008

Starker Anstieg der Goldproduktion in Rußland:

"... The Russian Gold Industrialists Union has said it expects gold output to rise this year by 8 percent overall to 176 tonnes after five years of decline.
Output from mines rose by 10.2 percent to 136.82 tonnes in January-October 2008 from 124.15 tonnes a year ago, a union statement said.

http://www.iii.co.uk/shares/?t…id=7042610&action=article

Grüsse

Edel Man · 28. November 2008

.... und mehr.

Alf Field beobachte ich schon längere Zeit, etwa ab 2003.
Er ist neben Jim Sinclair derjenige, der meine längerfristig positive Ausrichtung auf Gold bestätigt.

Wichtig: Im Gegensatz zu manchen anderen Elliottern ( Gelbe ? ) sieht er bei 700 $ die massive Unterstützung.

Hier in seinem letzten Update geradezu erregende Perspektiven:

"..Assuming that the $699 low on 23 October 2008 turns out to be the actual low point of the correction, and that remains to be proven, then we can conclude that we have seen the low point for Major TWO. That will allow us to update my original “back of the envelope” template to much higher levels, as follows:

Major ONE up from $256 to $1,015 (actually 4 times the $255 low);
Major TWO down from $1015 to $699, say $700 (a decline of 31%);
Major THREE up from $700 to $3,500 (a Fibonacci 5 times the $500 low);
Major FOUR down from $3,500 to $2,500 (a 29% decline);
Major FIVE up from $2,500 to $10,000 (also a 4 fold increase, same as ONE)

http://news.goldseek.com/AlfField/1227596760.php

Grüsse
Edel Man

orezone · 28. November 2008

Siegel hebt langsam ab in seinen Tageskommentaren. Die Vorgänge in Bombay sieht er in Zusammenhang mit Versuchen zur Drückung des Goldpreises. Gold sei ein reines Friedensmetall und leide unter kriegerischen Auseinandersetzungen:

Die Anschläge in Indien, von denen jetzt alle Politiker "überrascht" und "schockiert" sind, sind für uns die Fortsetzung einer logischen Entwicklung. Wir haben im Börsenbrief "Goldmarkt" in den letzten Jahren immer wieder auf die gezielte Destabilisierung Südasiens hingewiesen. Mit dem Einstieg der USA in die atomare Aufrüstung Indiens, die ohne Kontrolle durch die IAEA geschieht, und der Einsetzung einer Regierung mit kriminellem Hintergrund in Pakistan, die von den USA zumindest toleriert wird, hat sich das Potential für einen militärischen Konflikt in der Region erheblich vergrößert. Neben geostrategischen Interessen ist der Konflikt auch aus Sicht des Goldanlegers wichtig. Unter dem Titel "Gold ist ein Metall des Friedens und des Wohlstands" haben wir in unseren Vorträgen seit 2004 regelmäßig darauf hingewiesen, daß der Konflikt zwischen Indien und Pakistan von Interessen, die gegen Gold gerichtet sind angeheizt werden könnte. Bei einer größeren kriegerischen Auseinandersetzung würde vor allem Indien als größter Goldimporteuer der Welt ausfallen. Möglicherweise würde Gold aus Indien bei einem größeren und länger anhaltenden Konflikt wegen der Verarmung der Bevölkerung sogar auf den Weltmarkt gelangen und den Goldpreis drücken. Wir haben immer wieder darauf hingewiesen, daß Gold von Kriegen nicht profitieren kann und daß der Goldpreis nur bei einem Wohlstandswachstum und einer steigenden Nachfrage nachhaltig steigen kann. Die Entwicklung in Indien und China in den letzten Jahren hat diese These bislang bestätigt.

http://www.goldseiten.de/conte…berichte.php?storyid=9021

Salut

Orezone

Edel Man · 28. November 2008

Schöner Artikel über Gold und die "CRIMEX".

"The war over gold and silver rages on, with its center stage as always at the NY COMEX futures exchange, often referred to affectionately as the “CRIMEX”. Myself and other metal market observers, most notably Jim Sinclair, Marc Faber, Eric Sprott, and Bill Murphy, have painstakingly watched this horror show play out over the past decade, under the guise of the U.S. “Strong Dollar Policy”, the ultimate oxymoron and falsehood.

We and others have discussed at length the incredibly positive fundamentals for both gold and silver, and by now it should be clear to all that supply for both are PLUMMETING while demand is EXPLODING. And there’s a reason why I’ve capped these words, as I cannot underestimate how powerful these forces have become, and how much strength they gain each day. Aside from the sharp increase in demand, depicted in last week’s World Gold Council quarterly report and by the fact that the Perth Mint, one of the world’s largest, is not accepting any more orders, supply is completely collapsing in nearly all markets.

But, once again, the key to this story is NOT the dollar, NOT other commodities, NOT the credit crisis, and NOT even gold’s supply/demand balance. It is one thing, and one thing alone; the ability of the gold/silver Cartel to surreptitiously (and in many cases illegally) sate the soaring physical demand. Clearly, they are losing the battle of the physical markets, given global shortages, record demand, and record premiums being paid over spot prices......

Anyhow, what makes me think the end of the COMEX is nigh, at least in its role as a price-setting mechanism for global gold and silver prices? Well, nothing is guaranteed, but the December futures contract is the largest of the year, and is set to expire shortly......"

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1228061100.php

Grüsse

Henry · 29. November 2008

Goldfabrik läuft auf Hochtouren:
http://www.tagblatt.ch/aktuell…haft/tb-wi/art149,1216987
Gruß Henry

Edel Man · 29. November 2008

Zitat von orezone

Siegel hebt langsam ab in seinen Tageskommentaren. Die Vorgänge in Bombay sieht er in Zusammenhang mit Versuchen zur Drückung des Goldpreises. Gold sei ein reines Friedensmetall und leide unter kriegerischen Auseinandersetzungen:

Die Anschläge in Indien, von denen jetzt alle Politiker "überrascht" und "schockiert" sind, sind für uns die Fortsetzung einer logischen Entwicklung. Wir haben im Börsenbrief "Goldmarkt" in den letzten Jahren immer wieder auf die gezielte Destabilisierung Südasiens hingewiesen. Mit dem Einstieg der USA in die atomare Aufrüstung Indiens, die ohne Kontrolle durch die IAEA geschieht, und der Einsetzung einer Regierung mit kriminellem Hintergrund in Pakistan, die von den USA zumindest toleriert wird, hat sich das Potential für einen militärischen Konflikt in der Region erheblich vergrößert. Neben geostrategischen Interessen ist der Konflikt auch aus Sicht des Goldanlegers wichtig. Unter dem Titel "Gold ist ein Metall des Friedens und des Wohlstands" haben wir in unseren Vorträgen seit 2004 regelmäßig darauf hingewiesen, daß der Konflikt zwischen Indien und Pakistan von Interessen, die gegen Gold gerichtet sind angeheizt werden könnte. Bei einer größeren kriegerischen Auseinandersetzung würde vor allem Indien als größter Goldimporteuer der Welt ausfallen. (....)
Salut

Orezone

Alles anzeigen

Bei allem Respekt vor der im Allgemeinen guten und informativen Arbeit von Siegel : Er vertritt hier eine mE. sehr hinterfragenswerte Theorie.
Der Cabal und ihren Verbündeten ist ja einiges zuzutrauen, aber diese Thesen hier halte ich persönlich für gewagt.
Nunja, er spricht diesbezüglich im Konjunktiv, aber offensichtlich lange und überzeugt.

Grüsse

Edel Man · 29. November 2008

Immer wieder interessant: Gold hat noch einen weiten Weg vor sich.
Hier ein Chart 1970 - 2008 des guten Dan Norcini in jsmineset.com :

Grüsse

Rostu · 29. November 2008

Da sieht man mal, daß Gold von den 80ern bis Anfang des neuen Jahrtausends keine besonders kluge Anlage war.

Edel Man · 29. November 2008

Zitat von Rostu

Da sieht man mal, daß Gold von den 80ern bis Anfang des neuen Jahrtausends keine besonders kluge Anlage war.

Tja, wer suchet, der findet!

Wer aber bereits Anfang der 70er Jahre mit dem Goldaufbau begann, sieht schon anders aus.
Ganz davon abgesehen bei späteren Käufen.

Was erwähnenswert ist: Dieser Chart ist US - bezogen, in DM oder Euro sähe dies etwas anders aus.

Grüsse

Edel Man · 29. November 2008

Dieser Chart, gelegegentlich herausgekramt, zeigt die erheblichen Preisschwankungen über längere Zeiträume.

Bachtlich hier das Verhalten in Krisen; steht auch zur These von M.Siegel -- obenstehen erörtert-- in gewissem Widerspruch.

Grüsse

sakura · 29. November 2008

Zitat von Rostu

Da sieht man mal, daß Gold von den 80ern bis Anfang des neuen Jahrtausends keine besonders kluge Anlage war.

In den 90ern in Russland hätte man das vermutlich anders gesehen. Eigentlich gibt es weltweit wenige langfristig sichere Regionen bzw Währungen.

Edel Man · 29. November 2008

Vergleich verschiedener Indices und Rohstoffgruppen;Interessante Tabellen..... :

"Within smashed up markets, optimists sometimes try to bet on when the bottom is touched, thus enabling (in theory, always) for good timing of investment inflows, or speculative cash, for the optimum returns game. Right now, it's safe to say that there's little consensus on anything in global or domestic markets, beyond perhaps general agreement that markets as such are crazy, directionless and impossible to call.

However, a survey of the global equities scene shows up that listed gold stocks can easily lay claim to have achieved the most impressive "bounce" from - what may yet to be shown to be - the bottom......

...Seen on this basis, materials stocks, accompanied by bank stocks, are currently leading global markets up from - what is yet to be shown to be - bottoms. Within the global mining sector, there is little question that gold stocks lead the pack, to reiterate, with a bounce of well above 50% from the bottom, measured on a weighted basis...."

http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb…age33?oid=73781&sn=Detail

Grüsse

sakura · 30. November 2008

Zitat von privileg

Laut Faber könnte der Boden erreicht sein.

Faber hat aber auch noch anderes zu berichten. Copypasta von Eichi Seite:

Zitat

Aus dem Midas vom 25.11. - Marc Faber auf Bloomberg TV:

Marc Faber Says Economy ‘Imploding,’ Favors Gold (Transcript)
2008-11-25 17:29:31.210 GMT

Nov. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Marc Faber, managing director of Marc Faber Ltd. and publisher of the "Gloom, Boom & Doom Report," talks with Bloomberg’s Carol Massar about the outlook for the global economy. Faber, speaking from Zurich, also discusses the outlook for the equity and commodity markets, his investment strategy, and the U.S.
government’s response to the financial crisis, including its rescue of Citigroup Inc. ("Morning Call" is seen weekdays on Bloomberg Television. Source: Bloomberg)

(This is not a legal transcript of the interview. Bloomberg LP cannot guarantee its accuracy.)

CAROL MASSAR, BLOOMBERG NEWS: Let’s get to our first guest this morning. He predicted the stock market crash of 1987. More recently he called for a rally earlier this month. What this, what he expected, joining us with his talks on the market, economy and his investment strategy, Mark Faber, Editor and Publisher of the "Gloom, Boom & Doom Report." He comes to us from Zurich this morning. Mark, good morning. Good to have you back on "Morning Call".

MARC FABER, EDITOR AND PUBLISHER, GLOOM, BOOM & DOOM REPORT:
Yes, good morning. Thank you.

MASSAR: We have had a nice two day rally here, Mark. And when you were last on Bloomberg just a couple of weeks ago, you said that some kind of rally is possible here. Is this the kind of rally you were talking about?

FABER: Yes, I think that the market made an intermediate low a couple of days ago, and that we can have here, rally of - in many shares of 30 percent also in emerging markets, also in commodities. But what it is important to understand, if you go back for 12 months
or a few years, 2001 to 2007 stock markets and asset markets around the world go up and the U.S. dollar goes down.

Then we reach a peak at the end of last year, October/November 2007, and the asset markets collapse and the dollar goes up. And I think in order to get the asset markets up here and to rally international liquidity has to improve. In other words, the dollar will go down.

So investors have to be very careful to be in access (ph) that will actually appreciate in both foreign currency terms and in dollar terms, and if I look around the world, in my opinion, the most precious asset going forward will still be gold.

MASSAR: And you’ve physically - you have been buying physical gold, correct?

FABER: Yes. I only buy physical gold, because I don’t trust derivative products, I don’t trust EPS, and I advise every American to hold his gold outside the United States.

MASSAR: So let me ask you then, Mark, when you see the moves in the commodity markets overall, those commodity prices which have come down dramatically from some of those highs we had over this summer, do you not buy it, do those prices not really represent what’s going on in the market in your view?

FABER: Well, the difference between precious metals and industrial commodities and we will have to talk about the grains in a - afterwards.

The industrial commodities depend very much on global industrial production and capital spending. Industrial production is coming down and capital spending will collapse next year as projects are canceled and as the Middle East slumps. And so the demand for industrial commodities will be low and I don’t expect a strong recovery in prices.

MASSAR: You know the governments around the globe have been doing an awful lot of help kind of get the financial system back into gear. What do you make, though, specifically of the U.S. plans maybe to really help out the consumer more, whether it’s
with auto loans and so on. Does that make sense in your view?

FABER: No, it doesn’t make sense at all, because the problem of the U.S. is overconsumption. And what the U.S. should do is target capital spending, education, R&D, and not to encourage people to consume more. It should encourage people to save more.

And this is the problem of U.S. policymakers and especially of the treasury and the central bank, the Federal Reserve, that they don’t understand really the problem of overconsumption leading to the trade and the current account deficit and eventually the over- indebtedness of the United States.

MASSAR: How do you know - I know you have been a critic, an outspoken critic of TARP. I mean, how do you, though, get around the crisis that we’re currently in? I understand your point and they do certainly make sense. But at this point, things have gotten so bad that how can you not maybe try to channel more money to the consumer to kind of get thing loosened up, if you will, within the financial system?

FABER: Actually, all observers and the economists they think that to do something is the best option. Nobody has asked the question whether to do nothing would be the best option.

And in my opinion, to do nothing would be the best option, to let people like Citigroup go bankrupt, let the shareholders lose everything, let the bondholders and the preference shareholder lose everything, because it will be lost anyway, but the next time it will be lost by the U.S. tax payer.

So it’s better the existing shareholders lose everything. The government could guarantee the depositors and that would help the country, but to kind of support ailing enterprises and companies that have proven to have committed huge errors is like if you have a criminal and you’re supporting rather than to put him in jail.

MASSAR: I got to ask you, though, because you mentioned Citigroup and that was obviously our big story yesterday, have propped up the market. You think it’s obviously a mistake that the government’s helping out Citigroup? Are you saying that eventually whether it’s six months from now, a year from now, that Citigroup will eventually - we will see the downfall of Citigroup, just quickly?

FABER: Well, first of all, if you look back at the subprime lending crisis, a large reason for the subprime lending crisis is the existence of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which were government- sponsored enterprises.

Had they not existed, the system would have adjusted in a different way. So the government supports mortgage lenders, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, now they support the banks. Do you think that the result will be much better?

MASSAR: Mark, we mentioned earlier that you are buying physical gold. My understanding is you are also buying some stocks too around the globe. What specifically?

FABER: Well, I think that the gold mining shares, especially the exploration companies, have been hammered and so a rebound - a very strong rebound could occur there as well.

I also think that corporate bond market, especially lower quality bonds around the world have filled up huge spreads vis-à-vis treasuries, and so the corporate bonds market actually, for my pace, would seem to be more attractive than equities now.I admit that equities can rebound 30 percent, in some cases maybe even 100 percent, if you drop from 100 to 2, it’s very easy to go back to 10 before you go to zero.

MASSAR: Right. Good point. Well then, let’s get back to where we started. Because we talked about this two-day rally. I mean, do you expect to continue to see some rallies in the overall market before the end of the year or have we kind of had it in the last couple of days?

FABER: Well, no, I think we can rally further because worldwide governments are really injecting liquidity through fiscal measures and monetary measures into the system and then everything goes up, but some things go up more than others.

And as I said, I think that precious metals are attractive because every responsible individual in this world must know central banks have become an asylum (ph) for economies that have turned insane and in their insanity, they became money printers. And so you have to be your own central bank; you cannot trust the central banks of our governments any more.

MASSAR: So if you had 20 seconds here, Mark, if you have one investment to buy at this point, would it be go back to physical gold, is that it?

FABER: Well, it depends. Each person has different financial conditions, has different asset allocations, and so forth. But in general, I think you can (inaudible) this rally here in index futures, EPX in physical commodities, precious metals, and so forth.

But at some point in January to March of next year, you have to get out because the global economy is imploding. I am repeating, imploding; and there’s not going to be a recovery despite all the government interventions.

MASSAR: Got to leave it there, Mark. Thank you, as always.

Alles anzeigen

Edel Man · 30. November 2008

Zitat von sakura

Faber hat aber auch noch anderes zu berichten. Copypasta von Eichi Seite:

sakura

Deinen Beitrag habe ich aus einem anderen Thread hierhin kopiert, er paßt zu diesem Sräd voll hinein.
Insbesondere, was die von Dir grün markierten Passagen anbetrifft.

Dem 1. Satz ist eigentlich nichts hinzuzufügen, wenn denn, siehe Satz 2.

Daß Minen derzeit gewaltiges Potential haben und bereits aufholen, ist hier und dort erörtert worden:

Depotstruktur -- Märkte und Edelmetalle im Vergleich.

Aber wie so oft erwähnt, sicher nichts für den Beginn eines Investments in Edelmetallen.
Selbst erfahrene Mitglieder haben eine Aversion erheblichen Ausmasses entwickelt, mehr oder weniger begründet.

Grüsse
Edel Man

cano · 30. November 2008

Während der "offizielle" Goldpreis in den letzten Wochen stark angezogen hat, ist der ebay-Preis annähernd gleich geblieben.

Für einen Krügerrand wurden soeben nur 673 EUR erzielt und der "offizielle" Goldpreis liegt bei 644 EUR.

Bei einem "offiziellen" Goldpreis von 580 EUR lag der Ebaypreis etwa genauso hoch.

Edel Man · 1. Dezember 2008

---Und Silber--
Mal kurz und bündig, aus einer besonderen Sichtweise: "Befürchtung"

Sehr sehenswerte gute Grafik !!

"1) Fear of economic collapse - You will hear this expressed as a fear of deflation, but from a monetary perspective, this is a fear of loss due to insolvency, lower earnings, inability to service debt. This can be caused by over extension of credit, fraud, corruption or a combination of all of the above, which is what we are experiencing now.

2) Fear of fiat currency collapse - You will hear this expressed as hyperinflation. It is a self-reinforcing loss of confidence in the value of fiat currency......

We are being crushed between these two types of fear. There are no sound fiat currencies in which to seek shelter. This is the ultimate setup for gold and silver bullion."

http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1228115040.php

Grüsse

Edel Man · 1. Dezember 2008

.... empfiehlt jedenfalls David Chapman:

"...Right now the focus and fear has been on deflation, but the reality is that ultimately this is inflationary and we have noted that it could imperil the credit rating of the US Treasury. It is also unknown just how much in losses the US taxpayer will have to face. The massive amounts of funds needed for these bailouts could trigger the first trillion dollar budget deficit and the US government crowding out other borrowers for cash. All of this with appropriate lags can only lead to a depreciation of the US dollar and a monetizing of or inflating away of the problem. This is a problem for bond holders....

....The past few weeks has seen a slight momentum shift back to Gold although it clearly has been choppy. A higher low on the ratio was seen on November 20, 2008 once again coinciding with the stock market low. Since then the momentum has shifted slight back to Gold’s favour. We would now not be surprised to see that momentum shift to Gold’s favour and we would definitely own Gold over bonds right now."

http://news.goldseek.com/UnionSecurities/1228116420.php

Grüsse

Edel Man · 1. Dezember 2008

Dollar herauf, Gold herunter; Silber noch deutlicher.

Zudem starker Druck vom Öl her : - 6.3 % !!!
Und von den Aktienmärkten: DAX - 4,9 %; DOW - 4,4 %

Bin da aber nicht sicher, ob das eine Trendwende bei den PM ist, mE.temporär starke Einflüsse.

Grüsse

ageka · 1. Dezember 2008

Meine monatliche slow stochchart ist schoen dreimal kauf verkauf kauf und heute wieder verkauft gedreht
Also den oscillator weisst nicht was gemacht
Tagliche charte war uberkauft so die korrektion ist normal

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