GOLD : Märkte und Informationen

http://www.safehaven.com/article-12864.htm

March 19, 2009

Central Banks are Buying Gold for their Reserves Now!

by Julian D. W. Phillips

It is clear now that central banks are buying gold for their reserves.
Here is a brief history leading to today and the present position of
central banks as they turn to buying gold.

Massive Gold Sales!

From the early 1980's and for the next 20 years gold was under the
threat of massive sales from the world's central banks. Many
commentators reported that the overhang of gold above the 'open' market
was so great that such sales would eventually lead to central bank
reserves in the developed world having no gold at all. Central Banks
had further worsened the situation by loaning gold to mining companies,
through the bullion banks, allowing them to finance gold production to
a far greater extent than warranted by the price of gold during that
time. This acceleration in the production of gold allowed the gold
price to be pressed down $850 to $275, the point at which Britain, at
the instruction of the current Prime Minister Gordon Brown instructed
that Britain sell the bulk of its gold reserves. From the turn of the
millennium this perspective changed dramatically.

Limitation of gold sales by central Banks!

In 1999, through the establishment of the Washington Agreement, the
signatories announced to the world that it need not fear uncontrolled
sales of gold reserves for the next 5 years. While the U.S. and Japan
were not signatories, they gave tacit agreement to such a limitation.
Since then neither of them have sold gold on the open market. Following
the end of the 'Washington Agreement', a second agreement, called the
Central Bank Gold Agreement, extended the situation for another five
years. This agreement ends on the 26th September this year. Sales were
limited to the sales previously announced by the signatories, with the
exception of Belgium and Spain who made no prior announcement to their
sales. Under the Washington Agreement these were limited to 400 tonnes
a year. Under the second Agreement the sales were limited to 500 tonnes
a year. These limitations have not been met under the second agreement
as sales are below this limit so far.

The halting of Central Bank Gold Sales!

Of great significance has been the actual slowing of gold sales from
European banks, which appear to have lost all appetite for gold sales.

Indeed France was an unwilling seller, but under Presidential
instruction has done so. Italy has had no plans to sell any of its
gold. Germany had the option to sell 600 tonnes but has not taken this
option up. Switzerland took some of this but has ceased selling now. It
would be surprising if the signatories sold more than 150 tonnes of
gold let alone the ceiling amount of 500 tonnes by the 26th of
September this year. And next year, we expect no such sales [the I.M.F.
sales are potential sales that are not part of a central bank gold
selling policy] from central banks.

Central Bank buying of gold for reserves!

Just as the tide turned from damming gold in the monetary system in
1999 it appears we are rapidly approaching another watershed in the
history of gold in the monetary system.

Countries not seen as an important part of the global monetary system
have, in the last few months, turned buyers of gold. Ecuador [28 tonnes
- 920,000 ounces - doubled its reserves from 26.3 tonnes], Venezuela
bought gold [ 240,000 ounces - 7.5 tonnes - taking it up from 356.4
tonnes] , but this is not deemed of great significance.

Russia at last, after talking about it for over one year has begun to
buy gold. It was reported that Russia has bought as much as 90 tonnes
of gold for its reserves, lately [Previously it held 495.9 tonnes].
This is much more significant as it is a large figure in the small gold
'open market'. Prime Minister Putin is reported to have said that
Russia wants to see gold forming 10% of Russia's reserve. The slow
process of getting them up to that level could have begun. Even so
Russia has little influence on global central bank thinking, so such
increase are not thought to directly influence the principles behind
gold as a reserve asset. So as not to minimize such purchases, if
Russia were to keep up this pace of acquisition, it would be able to
buy 360 tonnes a year and have a very significant impact on the gold
price.

But the principles behind gold, as a reserve asset, are affected far
more by the following news. Last week the European Central Bank
reported that one signatory to the Agreement purchased gold [which for
the first time we have seen them do it], because the purchase was not
simply of gold coin [which has happened before - seemingly for good
housekeeping reasons] but simply "of gold". In other words the ranks of
central bank selling in Europe have been broken and one has turned
buyer!

We feel more positive now in our belief that European Central Banks are
unhappy sellers and are inclined to change their views to the buy side.
The very fact that one central bank in Europe has turned buyer confirms
this. There is little doubt in our minds that there are conflicting
views now amongst the heads of the leading European central banks on
gold now.

Major changes taking place in central bank policies on gold!

According to the World Gold Council's new chief Executive Aram
Shishmanian, in the Middle East the new monetary union there intend to
have "gold play a prominent role in Gulf CC economies." He said, "It
may play a role in that basket of currencies on which the GCC common
currency will be pegged". Of course, please bear in mind that the
inclusion of gold in a basket of currencies, would simply be for
valuation purposes and does not, of itself, imply that these central
banks will buy gold for their reserves.

He continued, "Gulf central banks, along with the central banks of
Brazil, Russia, India and China are expected to increase their gold
reserves. Central banks with low reserves of gold are looking to
increasing their reserves. They are trying to analyze what the right
balance should be. They are becoming aggressive. Currently the belief
is that if more than 20% of a central bank's reserves are in gold, it
is overweight, but this perception is changing! The metal is becoming
an assert class in the region and Gulf investors are looking at
long-term investments in gold as a hedge against inflation." We are
certainly not in a position to contradict what he says. After all he
has the resources and contacts to be authoritative on the matter.

However after nearly 30 years of opposition to gold by central banks
ands occasionally governments, it is a remarkable turnaround that tells
us that gold is returning to the monetary arena again! [The gold world
has expected this for so long it feels a bit like seeing an oasis in
the desert.]

If right, expect to see both Russian and Chinese gold production go
straight into those countries reserves and not even reach the open
market. That will account for nearly 600 tonnes of supply disappearing.
Now add to that the halting of sales from European central banks, a
perceived 500 tonnes a year. If this trend continues gold, as an
investment, will be fully rehabilitated.

Institutional demand will follow!

But this is by no means the largest effect that this change of heart
will bring about. The recognition by central banks that gold has a role
in the monetary system will influence investors, both institutional and
individual. Should that happen and say 5% of funds placed in gold by
funds such as Pension funds, then an amount of $920 billion, in the
States alone, could head gold's way. Only a five figure gold price
could accommodate that volume of money in the gold market. Now add to
that the same inclination in the rest of the world. Any such rise in
price will stunt the demand for sure, but be certain that gold is not
simply in a bull market.

If the World Gold Council's CEO is correct, then he will have confirmed
that 2009 and 2010 will be the year that heralds the return of gold to
the global monetary system!

"Gold is always accepted and is the ultimate means of payment and is
perceived to be an element of stability in the currency and in the
ultimate value of the currency and that historically has always been
the reason why governments hold gold."

Zitat von hpsk

gute Idee,

allerdings sind es z.Z. vorrangig Bankenwerte, welche die gesamten Börsen nach oben ziehen. Für mich zu spekulativ.

Aber denkbar ???

Gruß

hpsk

Alles anzeigen

Vorrangig dürfte es das sein, spekulativ. Auf dem penny-Stock-Niveau, auf dem sich manche Bankaktien bewegten, ist doch klar, dass eine Staatliche Garantie, jeglichen Papierschrott loswerden zu können gegen cash, sofort die Kurse befeuern muss. Das ist doch klar. Mit langfristiger Inflationsabsicherung durch Sachwerte hat das nun absolut garnichts zu tun. Das kann schon noch kommen, aber momentan sicher noch nicht. An den Aktienmärkten schieben sich momentan hauptsächlich die Fonds die Aktien hin- und her und es sind Daytrader unterwegs. Langfristige Anleger dürften kaum auf dem Parkett rumlaufen.