Global Economic Collapse

    Housing Slump May Force Fed to Pare Annual U.S. Growth Estimate


    26/02/2007
    The U.S. may be saddled with more sluggish growth than the Federal Reserve expects as the economy struggles to shake off a lingering hangover from the housing bubble.


    ``We're in the midst of a classic boom-bust credit cycle in housing,'' says Andy Laperriere, managing director at International Strategy & Investment Group in Washington. ``And the bust is just beginning.''


    The worst case: Distress already evident in the riskiest part of the mortgage-lending industry turns into a full-scale credit crunch that cripples the housing market and the economy.


    More likely, say forecasters at ISI, UBS AG and Deutsche Bank AG, is an economy stuck at about a 2 percent growth rate in coming quarters, down from 3.4 percent in 2006, as housing demand remains in the doldrums.


    Read
    Bloomberg

    Der Dow hat 100 pkt binnen sekunden verloren. Das sieht nicht gut aus.


    [Blockierte Grafik: http://images.bloomberg.com/r06/homepage/HP_INDU.png]


    Bin ich froh, dass ich vor 3 Wochen verkauft habe. Mich haben alle für verrückt erklärt!


    Nun das!


    Schaut euch die Währungen an ... der Yen steigt binnen Stunden um 1,25% und zwar mit einer fulimanten Dynamik!


    Carry-Trades lässt grüssen. Wetten die Spreads am Anleihenmarkt gehen hoch!

    vergesst den DOW, der wird, wie Ford und GM künstlich gestützt.


    Hier gehts ab:


    http://www.ml-implode.com/


    Nun wisst ihr, wo der Hammer hängt bzw. niedergeht.


    schon wieder drei Pfandbriefemitenten / Hypothekenbanken pleite.


    Was glaubt ihr: worin steckt mehr Geld in Aktien oder in Immobilien?


    oder sagen wir mal so:


    wahrscheinlich werden mehr Häuser als Aktien auf Kredit gekauft...


    Es bröckelt, kracht und bricht bereits. Nur die Fassaden stehen scheinbar unberührt davon. Fragt sich nur: wie lange noch.


    jep :D


    genau so ist es 8)


    das mag im klein,klein richtig sein :rolleyes:


    aber bedenke ein crash wirkt immer deflationär :D

    Schaut euch dieses Blutbad an:


    DAX 6.819,65 -2,96%
    L-Dax 6.689,54 -4,64%
    L&S DAX 6.685,00 -4,73%
    TecDAX 816,54 -6,23%
    L-TECDAX 790,19 -9,11%
    L&S TecDAX 805,00 -7,47%
    Dow 12.351,55 -2,22%
    Nasdaq 100 1.770,46 -3,28%
    Nikkei 225 18.119,92 -0,52%
    DJGTitans 228,70 -2,90%


    Der TechDax läuft auf -10% und die Emerging Markets (Brasil und Mexiko) sind auch schon heftig drauf!


    Der Dow ist schon bei -300 tendenz fallend. Wenn da was gestützt wird, dann nicht sonderlich gut!


    Gold spielt verrückt!


    Schaut euch den Yen an!!!!


    Der steigt .... und zwar konstant und mit viel dynamik ... ich würde sagen .... die Carry Trades lösen sich auf.


    Gerade war im Handelsblatt zu lesen, dass die Blase in China platzen könnte!


    Welche Blase? :D


    Da drehen jetzt beim Zentralkommitee alle durch. Jetzt haben Millionen Chinesen schön ihre Aktien gekauft und der Laden bricht zusammen.


    Bin gespannt wieviel Hedge Fonds hier gerade über die Wupper gehen!

    Zitat

    Original von Eulenspiegel
    greenjg


    Keine bange, wird vom PPT oder den Notenbanken (dürfen ja Aktien kaufen) wieder ausgebügelt.


    Gruß
    Eulenspiegel


    Ist wohl eher unwahrscheinlich dass Greeni morgens die rezession herbeiredet damit nachmittags das PPT intervenieren muss.


    Die jungs werden schon wissen was sie wollen, und das ist offenbar im moment ein kapitaler crash. Da wird noch viel blut fliessen in den nächsten tagen. :D

    Leute schaut euch die Nachrichtensender alle an!


    Oben steht immer: ALERT: Dow Plunges 500 Points!


    Jetzt fängt die Panik erst an.


    Gerade kommen zahlen herein bezüglich Hausverkäufe auf den Markt.


    GESTIEGEN! Und dann macht der Dow einen heftigen Peak nach unten!


    Wir sind erst am anfang!


    Ich fasse es nicht!

    Freddie Mac Toughens Standards For Buying Subprime Mortgages


    Freddie Mac, one of the nation's biggest buyers of subprime mortgages, is announcing dramatically tougher standards for purchasing these loans in the secondary market, according to CNBC's Steve Liesman.


    The standards appear to go beyond existing guidance from federal bank regulators, Liesman said.


    Under the new standards, Freddie Mac will only buy subprime mortgages where the borrower has been qualified at the higher interest rates to which these loans eventually adjust.


    In other words: if the initial rate is 5%, but the loan eventually adjusts to 10%, borrowers must now show the ability to pay the loan at the higher 10% rate for Freddie Mac to buy the loan.


    In an exclusive appearance on CNBC, Richard Syron, Chairman and CEO of Freddie Mac, said he was taking the action now because borrowers have been squeezed by higher interest rates and falling housing prices.


    "At a time when housing prices were going up 5% a year, and it went up 10% in two years, if someone paid 5% to get a mortgage, they were still ahead," said Syron. "But in the last few months, housing prices have softened."


    Iin addition, Freddie Mac will limit the use of low-documentation loans where borrowers cannot verify their income.


    The new standards won't take effect until Sept. 1, 2007 because Freddie Mac wanted a transition period.


    "We don't want people that have things in the pipeline now or may be in a position that they have to refinance in the very short run to be squeezed out of the market," said Syron.


    Freddie Mac has financed about 50 million homes. Syron says the company is developing new, more consumer-friendly subprime products.

    Home-Price Index Slides, With 'No Sign of Bottom'


    The prices of existing U.S. single-family houses extended their slide in most regions in December, trimming annual price gains, according to an index of major metropolitan areas released on Tuesday.


    The composite month-over-month Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller Home Price Index of 10 metropolitan areas declined 0.8% to 222.01, unchanged year-over-year, S&P said on its Web site. The composite month-over-month Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller Home Price Index of 20 metro areas showed a 0.7% drop in December, a 203.07 reading, and a 0.5% year-over-year gain.


    "The slide at this point is a good deal steeper then we saw at the beginning of the decade and we don't see any sign of a bottom," David Blitzer, S&P Index committee chairman, told CNBC. "These are the worst numbers in at least ten years."


    Blitzer also told CNBC that the impact of the subprime mortgage market could further depress home prices: "The damage from the subprime mortgage market probably hasn't shown up in home prices yet," Blitzer said. "That will take a lot of buyers out of the market, and fewer buyers probably means weaker prices and less hope of a turnaround."


    "Annual changes in home prices are either in decline, flat or yielding negative returns across all markets," added Robert J. Shiller, chief economist at MacroMarkets LLC, in a release. "All metro areas are showing smaller annual returns than those reported for November."


    The newly published U.S. National Index, which has historically portrayed less volatile increases and declines, joins the other two composites in the steep decline that began in 2005, falling 0.7% over the quarter and ending the year at just 0.4% annual growth, Shiller added.


    The S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index tracks the value of single-family homes across the country.


    Standard & Poor's last week announced an expansion of its S&P/Case-Shiller U.S. Home Price Indexes to add a quarterly gauge of national home prices.


    U.S. home prices rose 0.4% in the fourth quarter of 2006 compared with the same quarter a year earlier, according to Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller National Index.


    U.S. home prices were down 0.7% in the fourth quarter from the previous quarter, according to Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller National Index.

    Am Besten in der Währung in der er seine Erträge erzielt.


    Alles Andere ist blanker Selbstmord.


    Siehe es so. Der Abschlag entspricht den Preis für den Faktor "Sicherheit".


    Und der kann momentan nicht gross genug sein!


    Ich würde schnell handeln!

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