Short, Medium, Long Term Gold - Chris Laird
Mid Term......A large drop in commodity prices, combined with slowly deteriorating financial markets will not be bullish for gold. However, if there is a stock market panic, or other financial panic, commodities will drop but gold will be bullish because of flight to safety. So, as I said, one will have to see how the onset of a US recession occurs, and then determine if the ensuing market drops are either orderly-slow, or panicky....
Long term....When the credit bubbles stop showing returns, gold will attempt to immediately reflect the excess money creation that was formerly going into the credit bubbles (real estate is a credit bubble too). This will be very gold bullish.
Also, the ending of the massive world credit bubbles will cause financial deterioration in those economies and that will cause government fiscal deficits to increase greatly. That is going to be very gold bullish.....
We are in for some strange times on the next stock market panics, when they ensue.
I have written for some time about the very very serious problem of lost financial transparency. I call this the 'Black Box phenomenon' that has become the US and Japanese -economic and financial and banking systems, and now even stock markets -with the latest moves by the DHS, and the strange stuff about possibly canceling the COT report. These are only two of the latest manifestations of black boxes being put around our financial world where we have our money invested. Other black boxes are the manipulation of economic statistics. This kind of stuff makes our financial world very opaque, and lack of transparency only prevents people from taking defensive action, but does not prevent actual market collapses....
Short term...Gold short term will find strength in flight to safety- if there are serious market crashes this fall/winter. However, there will be a counter trend for gold in that commodities will tank hard if stock markets crash this year, and that will be gold suppressive. At this point, I am reluctant to say which force will win out in gold, other than to say that, absent a big stock crash, if the US were to slowly fall into a deep recession, dropping commodities will pull gold down some from here. If the US or other major economies were to have fast stock crashes, gold will rocket up from flight to safety.
full story: http://www.321gold.com/editorials/laird/laird090706.html
...also doch einiges Risiko - zumindest für "short term" 