Der Verfall des Dollars bringt die Frage mit sich, was mit den anderen Währungen geschehen wird. Schon in mittelfristiger Sicht scheinen Überlegungen wie die untenstehenden aus Indien alles andere als überdreht. Mit großer Wahrscheinlichkeit werden sich neue Währungsblöcke herausbilden - ob noch im Rahmen der bisherigen Öldiplomatie oder bereits in Folge von Kanonenbootdiplomatie, dies wird die Zukunft zeigen. Das Gold spielt hier weiterhin eine Indikatorrolle als "default curency", als Hartwährung ohne Landesgrenzen.
B]The Demise of the Dollar?[/B]
September 21, 2007
Aaman Lamba
The United States Dollar has fallen to its lowest levels in fifteen years against a basket of six currencies. Things are so bleak that the Indian rupee is beginning to look like a viable reserve currency, a 'hard' currency. As a matter of fact, that's not a bad idea, but more on that topic later.
With the world's central bankers, including former Federal Reserve chairmen, trash-talking the US Dollar, it seems as if its days are numbered. With special friends of the United States like the Saudis indicating they might unpeg their currency from the dollar, it seems almost a done deal.
Prognostications
All of the following is speculative and open to dispute, yet one can look at various ways the current global economic crisis might play out....
Gold is already at historically high levels, and any additional economic shock might make it the default standard. ..
The dollar's slide seems irreversible, and beyond a not-too-far point, numerous other currencies emerge as better-yielding zones to park oil and other global revenues. While this is not the place to debunk the already weak myth of a global clash of civilizations, the long term emergence of alternative economic zones is likely.
One could be the Euro/Amero area, initially separated, but merging into a larger Western macro-economic zone. Another might evolve out of the Shanghai Cooperative Organization, with the rouble and yuan embracing each other, after a similar phase of antagonism. A third, as-yet unknown currency bloc could emerge out of the Islamic oil crescent, with the facade of religion and blending with the SCO to be at least as strong as the Euro/Amero zone.That leaves the Indian sub-continent. A global economic shock might make the emergence of a subcontinental Confederacy almost necessary, and the Indian rupee itself becomes a tempting intermediate hard currency at levels of Rs 25/30 to the dollar, IMHO.
Oil diplomacy can easily enough be replaced by gunboat diplomacy, and were the looming war clouds to materialize, it could accelerate events, with each economic zone being forced to take sides in a fight few really want, and leading to factional divisions even between friends.
http://desicritics.org/2007/09/21/043105.php
grüsse
auratico
