Aus dem Midas vom 25.11. - Marc Faber auf Bloomberg TV:
Marc Faber Says Economy ‘Imploding,’ Favors Gold (Transcript)
2008-11-25 17:29:31.210 GMT
Nov. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Marc Faber, managing director of Marc Faber Ltd. and publisher of the "Gloom, Boom & Doom Report," talks with Bloomberg’s Carol Massar about the outlook for the global economy. Faber, speaking from Zurich, also discusses the outlook for the equity and commodity markets, his investment strategy, and the U.S.
government’s response to the financial crisis, including its rescue of Citigroup Inc. ("Morning Call" is seen weekdays on Bloomberg Television. Source: Bloomberg)
(This is not a legal transcript of the interview. Bloomberg LP cannot guarantee its accuracy.)
CAROL MASSAR, BLOOMBERG NEWS: Let’s get to our first guest this morning. He predicted the stock market crash of 1987. More recently he called for a rally earlier this month. What this, what he expected, joining us with his talks on the market, economy and his investment strategy, Mark Faber, Editor and Publisher of the "Gloom, Boom & Doom Report." He comes to us from Zurich this morning. Mark, good morning. Good to have you back on "Morning Call".
MARC FABER, EDITOR AND PUBLISHER, GLOOM, BOOM & DOOM REPORT:
Yes, good morning. Thank you.
MASSAR: We have had a nice two day rally here, Mark. And when you were last on Bloomberg just a couple of weeks ago, you said that some kind of rally is possible here. Is this the kind of rally you were talking about?
FABER: Yes, I think that the market made an intermediate low a couple of days ago, and that we can have here, rally of - in many shares of 30 percent also in emerging markets, also in commodities. But what it is important to understand, if you go back for 12 months
or a few years, 2001 to 2007 stock markets and asset markets around the world go up and the U.S. dollar goes down.
Then we reach a peak at the end of last year, October/November 2007, and the asset markets collapse and the dollar goes up. And I think in order to get the asset markets up here and to rally international liquidity has to improve. In other words, the dollar will go down.
So investors have to be very careful to be in access (ph) that will actually appreciate in both foreign currency terms and in dollar terms, and if I look around the world, in my opinion, the most precious asset going forward will still be gold.
MASSAR: And you’ve physically - you have been buying physical gold, correct?
FABER: Yes. I only buy physical gold, because I don’t trust derivative products, I don’t trust EPS, and I advise every American to hold his gold outside the United States.
MASSAR: So let me ask you then, Mark, when you see the moves in the commodity markets overall, those commodity prices which have come down dramatically from some of those highs we had over this summer, do you not buy it, do those prices not really represent what’s going on in the market in your view?
FABER: Well, the difference between precious metals and industrial commodities and we will have to talk about the grains in a - afterwards.
The industrial commodities depend very much on global industrial production and capital spending. Industrial production is coming down and capital spending will collapse next year as projects are canceled and as the Middle East slumps. And so the demand for industrial commodities will be low and I don’t expect a strong recovery in prices.
MASSAR: You know the governments around the globe have been doing an awful lot of help kind of get the financial system back into gear. What do you make, though, specifically of the U.S. plans maybe to really help out the consumer more, whether it’s
with auto loans and so on. Does that make sense in your view?
FABER: No, it doesn’t make sense at all, because the problem of the U.S. is overconsumption. And what the U.S. should do is target capital spending, education, R&D, and not to encourage people to consume more. It should encourage people to save more.
And this is the problem of U.S. policymakers and especially of the treasury and the central bank, the Federal Reserve, that they don’t understand really the problem of overconsumption leading to the trade and the current account deficit and eventually the over- indebtedness of the United States.
MASSAR: How do you know - I know you have been a critic, an outspoken critic of TARP. I mean, how do you, though, get around the crisis that we’re currently in? I understand your point and they do certainly make sense. But at this point, things have gotten so bad that how can you not maybe try to channel more money to the consumer to kind of get thing loosened up, if you will, within the financial system?
FABER: Actually, all observers and the economists they think that to do something is the best option. Nobody has asked the question whether to do nothing would be the best option.
And in my opinion, to do nothing would be the best option, to let people like Citigroup go bankrupt, let the shareholders lose everything, let the bondholders and the preference shareholder lose everything, because it will be lost anyway, but the next time it will be lost by the U.S. tax payer.
So it’s better the existing shareholders lose everything. The government could guarantee the depositors and that would help the country, but to kind of support ailing enterprises and companies that have proven to have committed huge errors is like if you have a criminal and you’re supporting rather than to put him in jail.
MASSAR: I got to ask you, though, because you mentioned Citigroup and that was obviously our big story yesterday, have propped up the market. You think it’s obviously a mistake that the government’s helping out Citigroup? Are you saying that eventually whether it’s six months from now, a year from now, that Citigroup will eventually - we will see the downfall of Citigroup, just quickly?
FABER: Well, first of all, if you look back at the subprime lending crisis, a large reason for the subprime lending crisis is the existence of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which were government- sponsored enterprises.
Had they not existed, the system would have adjusted in a different way. So the government supports mortgage lenders, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, now they support the banks. Do you think that the result will be much better?
MASSAR: Mark, we mentioned earlier that you are buying physical gold. My understanding is you are also buying some stocks too around the globe. What specifically?
FABER: Well, I think that the gold mining shares, especially the exploration companies, have been hammered and so a rebound - a very strong rebound could occur there as well.
I also think that corporate bond market, especially lower quality bonds around the world have filled up huge spreads vis-à-vis treasuries, and so the corporate bonds market actually, for my pace, would seem to be more attractive than equities now.I admit that equities can rebound 30 percent, in some cases maybe even 100 percent, if you drop from 100 to 2, it’s very easy to go back to 10 before you go to zero.
MASSAR: Right. Good point. Well then, let’s get back to where we started. Because we talked about this two-day rally. I mean, do you expect to continue to see some rallies in the overall market before the end of the year or have we kind of had it in the last couple of days?
FABER: Well, no, I think we can rally further because worldwide governments are really injecting liquidity through fiscal measures and monetary measures into the system and then everything goes up, but some things go up more than others.
And as I said, I think that precious metals are attractive because every responsible individual in this world must know central banks have become an asylum (ph) for economies that have turned insane and in their insanity, they became money printers. And so you have to be your own central bank; you cannot trust the central banks of our governments any more.
MASSAR: So if you had 20 seconds here, Mark, if you have one investment to buy at this point, would it be go back to physical gold, is that it?
FABER: Well, it depends. Each person has different financial conditions, has different asset allocations, and so forth. But in general, I think you can (inaudible) this rally here in index futures, EPX in physical commodities, precious metals, and so forth.
But at some point in January to March of next year, you have to get out because the global economy is imploding. I am repeating, imploding; and there’s not going to be a recovery despite all the government interventions.
MASSAR: Got to leave it there, Mark. Thank you, as always.
Tja ich konnte zumindest den heutigen Rücksetzer kaufen 
Jedenfalls geht NGR jetzt schön nach oben und es gibt ganz gute ![[smilie_blume]](https://goldseiten-forum.com/wcf/images/smilies/smilie_blume1.gif "smilie_blume"){kind=small}
. Nur haben mir (nicht nur) seine Kommentare bzw sein Buch ein totes Portfolio erspart. Die Immokrise hat er (wie auch viele andere) recht früh erkannt, den Einbruch der Rohstoffe bzw das Ansteigen des $ auch. Das in den nächsten Monaten noch was folgt sehen die Elliothexer ähnlich. Deren Kursziele zeigen tatsächlich ein "implodieren" an. Interessant deswegen weil Faber nix mit EW am Hut hat und nur Wirtschaftszyklen bzw Fundamentials berücksichtigt und zu gleichen Ergebnissen kommt. Man sollte zumindest vorbereitet sein und nicht zu euphorisch long gehen.
![[smilie_happy]](https://goldseiten-forum.com/wcf/images/smilies/smilie_happy_058.gif "smilie_happy"){kind=small}