Hier ein Beitrag (mal nicht von Ted Butler, es gibt noch mehr Analysten die seine Sicht der Dinge teilen), der mögliche aufkommende Probleme bei Papier-Silber zeigt.
Beware of a Rule Change for Silver
Dr Richard S. Appel
March 26, 2004
Silver recently broke above the important $6.00 level that should have at a minimum presented some important resistance. The impressive sustained buying frenzy that fired its advance quickly not only catapulted it quickly through that point, but has now placed it in a position to attack far higher price levels. When I began working on this essay several days ago I thought that it would at least require a month or longer to attain the $7.50 price objective. This was the height to which silver earlier soared when Warren Buffet announced that he had purchased a substantial amount of the white metal in early 1998. Now that $7.50 has been surmounted, and barring a correction which should normally attend such an event, the next area of important resistance should be $8.00 followed by my intermediate price target of $10.00. Given the abruptness of silver's current breathtaking advance, it is likely that we will not have long to wait before these targets are approached.
One issue that greatly impresses me is the effect of a recent unified letter campaign to various government officials. These outlined the abuses that have allegedly influenced the free trading silver market. It is believed that a group of bullion banks, brokerage firms and commercial interests have acted for years to suppress the price of silver. Ted Butler who has long championed silver initiated the campaign. He was responsible for the outpouring of thousands of individual letters to important officials such as Elliot Spitzer, New York's Attorney General. Mr. Butler's coaxing, along with that of the Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee (GATA.org) was instrumental in a flurry of letters that appear to have forced the authorities to at minimum look into these allegations. It is amazing that shortly after the campaign was initiated, silver appeared to become freed from the shackles that had prevented its price appreciation for a number of years. The timing was that precise.
If the allegations are true, which I believe is likely, those who have worked to maintain silver at an artificially low price will now be forced to stand aside and allow the market to set its own course. They will do this for fear of government sanctions against their indefensible actions. To me this is truly a great win for "the little guy", the man in the street, all of us! Further, it proves that a number of people working together in search for truth and justice can actually make a difference! My hat is off to Ted Butler and GATA.
It is amazing how powerful the Internet can be if utilized properly. In this instance the availability of instantaneous communications allowed a vast number of individuals from varying countries and from very different walks of life, to successfully connect for a like-minded goal.
If indeed silver has broken away from the restraints that have impeded its advance for the past several years, it is now free to quickly make up for lost time. This will allow it to rise to the $8.00 area, which appears to me to be the white metal's present minimum equilibrium level. However, there are other considerations that must be taken into account in order to determine the extent of silver's remaining thrust if the suppressing forces have indeed been quieted.
I have been long waiting for the build up of silver's fundamentals to propel it sharply higher. Silver has been in a supply deficit for nearly 15 years. During this time the vast majority of available above ground supplies have been consumed.. Further, the various government stockpiles have been all but exhausted. During the early 1970's, the U.S. government maintained a silver inventory of about 3 billion ounces. This has long since been depleted. The U.S. now finds itself in a position where it must compete in the marketplace to acquire needed silver supplies for the production of their various silver collector coins.
The enormous commodity short position against silver has been at an unsustainable level for quite some time. It appeared obvious that the shorts would eventually be forced to cover their positions. Further, given the amount of silver that they owed, a massive short squeeze seemed the likely outcome. The only question has always been one of timing! Now, we appear to be at the thresh-hold of the silver shorts long-awaited day of reckoning.
Given the fact that the above events appear to be coming to a head, the ultimate outcome will be a significant spike in the silver price. This will be needed to attract the sale of a sufficient quantity of silver from the "strong hands", in order to clear the market. I believe that this process has now been set into motion! When the smoke settles, the only question is the needed dollar price that will effect the balance of the white metal's supply and demand.
Given the above, I believe that within the foreseeable future we will be faced with a silver price well in excess of $10.00 an ounce. It is impossible to presently predict whether silver will rocket to $12.00, $15.00, or even $20.00 an ounce because there are too many unknowns. Further, the enormous short position has not been built up by an unwitting public. It has been undertaken by bullion banks, important brokerage firms as well as major commercial interests. In effect, by some of the most powerful, financially sound and shrewdest minds in the financial world. They will not easily go down fighting! There will likely be sharp corrections as negative information regarding silver enters the market. However, in the end, I believe that a year from now we will all look back at today's silver price and wish we had owned more!
By now you see that I have not yet addressed the title of this discussion. I recognize this, but I wanted to first lay some groundwork and give you my perception of the condition and future of the silver market. However, before I properly address my topic, I believe that a recap of history is also important.
During the silver blow-off period which occurred between August, 1979 and January, 1980, silver exploded in price from about $9.00 to $52.50 an ounce. This was the time when the famous Hunt brothers achieved a corner on the silver market. They effectively controlled the majority of the world's available above ground silver supplies. Earlier, they had cautiously and secretively acquired an enormous cache of the white metal. Once having attained their goal they began to bid up silver's price.
Silver had already begun a secular Bull Market prior to the initiation of the Hunt brothers short squeeze. It had been trading in the $4.00 to $5.00 range for a few years prior to its break-out above the $5.00 resistance level in early 1978. It then worked its way higher into the summer of 1979. During the incredible short squeeze that ensued the white metal experienced bouts of multi-up-limit days. When the shorts finally panicked in December, 1979, silver was trading at about $18.00. Subsequently, the white metal moved limit-up for a number of consecutive days. When silver approached $50.00 an ounce most of the shorts were already bankrupt on paper. They were locked in and were unable to extricate themselves from their positions as silver rose day after day without trading.
From various rumors that I read at the time, some of the major shorts were allegedly either officials or had close ties with members of the Commodities Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). If this was true these individuals had the power to change the rules that governed silver futures trading in the United States. When silver vaulted above $50.00 an ounce, the CFTC announced that only liquidating orders would be allowed to be executed on the Exchange.
This forced the longs to sell as the shorts neither desired to cover their positions nor had the capacity to do so. Thus, within a day or so, silver began to collapse in price and went limit down day after day until the first shorts began to cover their positions and bought back the silver that they owed. As I recall, this did not occur until silver had returned to the mid-$30 range. When this happened numerous longs, who had earlier pegged the market correctly and had sizeable profits, were decimated because they had no opportunity to exit their trades until silver was trading about fifteen dollars lower.
I am submitting this information so that those interested in the fate of silver will also have an understanding of the past. I am not presenting this to frighten you but to prepare you for the possible replay of an earlier, real event. Further, I do not believe that we will face such an occurrence in the near term! I say this because it will likely transpire during the latter stages of silver's Bull Market, which I do not foresee for quite some time. However, if silver ultimately achieves a substantial price target that I believe is likely in store for it, many powerful individuals and companies who are short the metal will be severely damaged. And, some of them may be in a position to effect changes in order to extricate themselves from their mistakes.
If this occurs, I hope that readers will not suffer a similar fate as did those who were right about silver at $52.50 an ounce in 1980, but severely suffered due to a damaging rule change. Instead, I hope that you carefully monitor all of your silver related investments and do not expose yourself as did those who were financially destroyed at the whim of those who may have benefited from their destruction. My advise to both benefit from the emerging great silver Bull Market and not expose yourself to the potential of damaging regulation changes, is to buy silver, but buy the physical! I am confident that if you choose this course of action, at the end of the day you will have both slept well and will have prospered.
The above was excerpted from the April 2004 issue of Financial Insights © March 21, 2004.
Dr Richard Appel
Financial Insights
Der Vorteil an physischem Silber ist der, daß es MiIR gehört. Ich kann es leigen lassen so lange ich will, kann es verkaufen wie und wann ich will. Ohne von irgendeiner Bank, deren Zertifikat-Bedingungen, Auslaufterminen oder Liquiditätsproblemen der Papiere abhängig zu sein. Niemand kann die Spielregeln zu meinem Nachteil ändern.
Und bei den absehbaren Lieferengpässen bei Silber, das für weite Teile der Elektronik, Foto- und Rüstungsindustrie (!) unentbehrlich ist, ist mit allem zu rechnen. Auch mit (US-)staatlichen Eingriffen bis hin zur Rationierung und jeglicher Art der Spielregel-Änderung (Home-Security-Law...). Zumal auf der Short-Seite (und damit auf der Verliererseite bei einer Preisexplosion) die GANZ Großen der Kapitalmachacht sitzen.
Also Freunde des Papier-Silbers, vergeßt nicht Euch anzuschnallen.
PS: Dies ist KEIN Weltuntergangs-Szenario und KEINE Verschwörungstheorie. Wir haben genau das bereits erlebt. 1980. Und damals gab es noch kein Silberdefizit...
dank Advance-Bank-Übernahme ...noch)