Beiträge von germoney

GOLD AND GOLD STOCKS APPEAR READY TO SOAR

Dr. Richard S. Appel
http://www.financialinsights.org

Much has occurred during the past few months that drew me to the conclusion that gold and gold equities are approaching a period when they will shortly resume their secular Bull Market advances. I have recognized and discussed during this time my belief that the gold price would be under pressure until after the upcoming presidential election. Further, it has been my contention that no effort would be spared to maintain orderly stock, bond and gold markets, in order to help the incumbent remain in office.

During the past few years I noted some of the strange gold price actions that occurred, the comparisons to which I had not witnessed across my nearly forty years of studying the gold and gold equities markets. Importantly, some of these unusual occurrences became quite commonplace in the last two months. After considering their consequences I am compelled to believe that sharply higher gold and gold share prices are likely awaiting us just around the corner.

It is my conviction that our leaders desire to control an orderly gold price rise as its secular Bull Market unfolds. They are not so much concerned if gold moves higher, but how its advances play out. They realize that gold will advance as a result of their actions, but they desire to prevent the public from recognizing that fact for as long as possible.

For new readers, the reason that politicians shun gold is because it acts as a barometer, whose price action announces how a government is handling their country's fiscal and monetary affairs. When a nation is acting prudently, their monetary unit is stable on world markets, as are their domestic prices. Under such conditions, the gold price tends to find a level from which it does not greatly deviate.

When most countries maintained a gold standard, the last vestige of which ended in 1971, the noble metal acted to limit a government's propensity towards excessive monetary creation. Our leaders could only issue dollars if they had sufficient gold with which to redeem them. This forced those in power to live within their means. They could not spend more than they acquired through taxation. However, when a nation state acts irresponsibly and overspends their tax receipts creating fiscal deficits, it drives its balance of payments into negative territory, and both their currency's worth on world markets and its local purchasing power falls. During such times gold senses that the currency is destined to decline, and will rise in anticipation of that event. This is the real reason that gold, despite all of the negative rhetoric that abounds, has been plodding higher in price. Do not forget it has already risen 65% since it posted its 2001 bottom, with neither the awareness nor participation of the general public.

Since the birth of civilization gold has been coveted by man. It was one of the first forms of money and once recognized for its eternal value, has been used by virtually all civilizations as their primary form of money. If we were able to go back in time for sixty or more years, you would find that it was the prime, universal item used as money. The reason that it achieved this lofty state, and maintained it for several millennia, was due to the fact that its use forced politicians to be honest regarding their issuance of paper money substitutes. Each time a country deviated from exclusively using gold and issued paper currency in its stead, their leaders began to debase their money at an escalating pace. In all cases, this did not end until the banknotes finally became worthless or nearly so. The only question was how long it took. This is the reason behind the old French adage that, "even the poorest French peasant hides gold under his mattress". It was the result of the repeated currency changes that France's citizens were forced to endure. These were due to their government's destruction of each new currency that they issued, to replace the earlier ones that they had inflated to near worthlessness.

I digressed, again. A number of unusual events have repeatedly occurred in the gold market for at least the past few years. These go against all of my experience following the gold market, as well as the laws of probability. First, gold has rarely traded higher than $6 on any given day. Each time that it begins a session sharply higher or trades to this level above its previous closing price, a substantial amount of selling has appeared. Bill Murphy (Gold Antitrust Action Committee, GATA.org) was the first person to note these incredible recurring incidents. I sensed that something was wrong for quite some time prior to his observation, but it was his bringing my attention to it that first stopped me in my tracks.

He rightly pointed out that this action has helped prevent drawing undue attention to gold after it began its tortuous, rising, bullish path in 2001. Second, often when the great metal was either leaving a base or when it suddenly shot higher, it would meet a wall of selling. The last several days are a good example. Gold, after trading just over $6 above the prior day's close last Friday, was not only stopped dead in its tracks, but it moved sideways on Monday, only to be whacked on the following day when it gapped down $6, before posting a $7 loss. In the old days, when gold exhibited an explosive breakout or a sharp run-up, the momentum typically followed through for at least several days before a setback occurred. Now, almost like clockwork whenever gold trades strongly higher selling mounts, and the wind is immediately taken out of its sails.

Still another repetitive telltale trading pattern has been in force. This time it involves the action of the HUI, the Amex Gold Bugs Index. In the past the HUI and its precursor the XAU, the Philadelphia Gold & Silver Index, often reversed direction prior to the yellow metal at major turning points, during extended gold advances or declines. Gold and the major producers normally move in tandem. However, the past two or more years have seen the HUI reverse course on any given day while gold was moving strongly higher. With few exceptions, the following day gold was hit for a substantial and often a prolonged string of losing sessions. Some observers have commented that this action might be the result of information leaking of a forthcoming attack on gold. Whatever the reason, it has often signaled an impending downdraft in gold's price.

I am bringing these extraordinary events to your attention because the regularity of these strange and recurring anomalies have greatly increased during the past few months. I believe that the reason for this condition is the fact that buyers of the yellow metal have become more aggressive, and thus the need to overwhelm these gold positive forces has similarly risen. This, in order to prevent a near-term, sharply higher price.

I realize that many readers are quite skeptical of my above claims and statements. I am not asking you to believe me! However, I suggest for your own sake, that you keep an open mind and try to more closely follow the daily price movements of gold and the HUI. It will be easy enough to draw your own conclusions. But again, you must be open-minded and try to believe what you see and ignore all of the negative gold rhetoric that fills the airways. If I am correct, you will have sufficient time as gold's great secular Bull Market unfolds, to confirm or refute my observations. This will allow you to determine for yourself if either the cited abnormal events are a coincidence, or if official actions or statements occur at times when gold is soaring, and are used to control its further advance.

In any event, I believe that anyone interested in the gold complex should closely focus on the trading relationship between gold and the HUI. Further, you should use caution whenever a deviation from the norm such as I have described presents itself.

If you invest in gold I believe that it is imperative for you to attempt to get a "feel" for the gold market. You should at least follow the daily closing prices of gold and the HUI and compare them with earlier ones. I believe that this is best done in real terms, not in percentages. For example, if gold posts consecutive closes of $420, $416, $418, $416.50, $417 and $415.50 you can sense that it is trending downward, albeit it slightly. However, if you work in percentage terms you have no reference point from which to judge its underlying direction. All that you know is that it was down 1%, up 0.5%, down 0.4%, up 0.2% etc. You will lose all sense of its trend. If you use this method in following all of your markets I believe that you will develop a better grasp of their primary trends.

An advance in gold is the determining factor that will influence the price movements of both the major producers and the junior exploration companies. I believe that we are on the cusp of a substantial increase in gold's price which will drive it to test the $500 level. I do not know if the precious metal can muster sufficient buying power to propel it to a new high prior to the election. However, once the need to strenuously restrain its advance no longer exists, I feel that it will break free of its shackles and surprise most onlookers with a burst of strength.

I suspect that November will be attended with a new Bull Market high. However, precise timing was never my forte, and we may have longer to wait. Yet, given what appears to be a far greater magnitude of effort necessary to constrain its price, it is likely that it will literally evaporate when the last presidential vote is cast.

My only potential caveat is that a number of gold enthusiasts are predicting a similar scenario. This gives me some pause because I prefer gold breakouts that are anticipated by as few investors as possible. However, I doubt if all of we pundits combined have as much influence as the worldwide audience that gold appears to be finally attracting.

The gold producing companies, as viewed through the action of the HUI, struck their lows in May. I believe that they will join and make new highs along with gold. They have completed their bases and await a breakout to new high levels before they will really roar. The HUI is trading at 227.47 and its Bull Market peak is $258.60. Additionally, it's 50 day moving average just rose above its 200-day average. They are 208.38 and 207.23 respectively. Thus the HUI's moving average study has turned bullish, which is a major plus.

The junior sector is becoming quite interesting to me at present. After sustaining substantial losses during the springtime they bottomed around July. From their lows, most companies moved higher and many of them developed defined upward trends. It appears to me that most of the better companies have cleaned up their markets; they have absorbed all of the cheap stock sold by the weak holders. This being said, I believe that they too are poised to move sharply higher along with gold. I will discuss my ideas on this topic more fully in the Resource Market section.

October 21, 2004

Napoleon III
Don Stott
I know, let me put the words in your mouth: "Stott, you've really gone off the deep end now." Oh yeah? Well, my friend, the problems of France, and Emperor Napoleon III…and the silver market, are so obviously pertinent, and probably unknown by most, that I think you'd better keep on reading!

Several things had a serious effect on France, beginning about 1850. First of all, the gold discovery in California in 1849, plus discoveries in Australia and Siberia, made gold far more plentiful than silver in a lot of places, and especially in France. World gold production between the years 1850 and 1875 exceeded production of the previous 350 years. By a law passed in 1803, France had an official gold-silver ratio of 15.5 to 1, so silver was necessary. French coinage was silver.

In 1832, Belgium acquired independence from Holland. In 1854, Belgium ceased producing silver coins, and depended on the French mint for silver. It was cheaper than minting its own coins. In 1854, the French minted fewer silver coins than at any time since the Revolution in 1795. Silver was hoarded and speculated upon by the masses. It was indeed scarce. Belgium's silver imports from France jumped from 6 million francs in 1850, to 78 million in 1859. Switzerland was having the same problems in obtaining silver for its coinage.

Gold was literally everywhere, it seemed, and those nations who had a silver based monetary system, as did France and others, suffered from a severe shortage of silver. Realizing that, the citizens hoarded silver, so little was available for coinage. It seemed as though everyone was dealing with, and paying with gold. There was so much gold, that its price went down, and so little silver, that its price went up. Simple economics. France desperately needed silver.

Then, along comes the War of Northern Aggression, improperly called the "Civil War." France's most important industry was textiles, and the North's blockade in 1861, stopped cotton shipments from America, which France depended upon. It was a disaster, to put it mildly. By 1863, France had 223,336 unemployed, affecting the lives of approximately 670,000 persons. Napoleon was enraged over the French dependence on the US for its cotton, and went to India for cotton. Indian cotton had a shorter staple, many impurities, and resulted in a yarn that caused threads to break more easily. Reluctantly, France went to India, but India demanded payment in…guess what… silver! America had accepted gold. India absolutely refused to export its cotton unless it was paid for in silver. Mean time, many small mills had gone bankrupt, and the larger ones were in deep financial difficulty.

Get the picture? France, as well as others, were in a desperate need of silver, and huge amounts of gold were on the market because of recent discoveries. No one had any silver…except Mexico…and everyone wanted it. Most of it was in Sonora, on the northwest corner of Mexico. Sonora was, and still is, a sort of desolate, parched, uninhabited place, with its main city being Hermosillo. Actually, Mexico's borders receded drastically when the US acquired about half of Mexico by the Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo, signed on Feb 2, 1848. Less than two weeks earlier, gold had been discovered in California, and the adventurers quickly descended on Sonora, thinking it would be rich in gold also. California was then part of the US, whereas Sonora was still a Mexican possession. Officials in Sonora were worried about the sudden influx. Sonora was enormously rich in silver. So much so, that it was supplying three fourths of the world's supply. Solid ingots weighing thousands of pounds were found in Sonora. Mexico's wealth of silver, and France's and other's dearth, could easily restore the world's balance between gold and silver.

In the 1850's, Sonora had several difficulties. The Apaches raided regularly, and the defeat in the recent war with the US, left them broke and battered. Many Sonorans, ironically, ignored the huge silver wealth in their own land, and were lured by California gold. Their two greatest threats, the Indians and Americans, were ignored by Mexico City, and little help was sent. Charles de Pindray and 88 Frenchmen left California for Sonora on November 21, 1851, aboard the Cumberland, and soon landed at Guaymas, Mexico. They attempted to make a deal with the Mexicans to obtain much needed silver, but were rebuffed by the officials. The Indians were also harassing them, and hope was lost. Pindray was mysteriously shot on June 5th, 1852, possibly self-inflicted by his failure to obtain the silver.

A second expedition was launched in 1852 by Pierre Charles de Saint-Amant. He, and 80 men left San Francisco, but that also failed. A third group in 1852 was led by Raousset-Boulbon, but he did it diplomatically, rather than attempting force. He went to Mexico City, not Sonora, and obtained political, financial, and diplomatic backing, plus a concession from the President Mariano Aristra for the silver mines of Arizona, located on the northern border of Sonora. It got really complex from then on, with Switzerland getting in on the action, but basically nothing resulted, and Aristra resigned the presidency in January of 1853. Santa Anna took over.

Antonio Lopez de Santa Anna took office in March 1853. In December 1853, the Gadsden Treaty allotted even more Mexican Territory to the United States. Now about Santa Anna. He was illegitimate, a womanizer, mean, and in general not a very nice guy…a euphemism. Mexico had allowed Americans to settle into the Texas territory to populate it. They figured it was just a dry plain with no mineral wealth, and no hope of ever going anywhere. So, thousands of Americans from Arkansas, Tennessee, and other places decided to move to the Mexican Territory of Texas, where they obtained land for two cents an acre. Among them was Sam Houston, a former Congressman, Governor, and depressed man. His wife had left him, and he had sunk into alcoholism and depression. Santa Anna decided that he wanted the immigrants to pay taxes to Mexico, and be subservient to Mexico. He was afraid that he was losing Texas, since it had been largely populated with US immigrants. He was! The Texians, (what they called themselves), said "Hell no," and the Alamo was fought over it. The Texians lost that one, but at the battle of San Jacinto, they won, even though they were outnumbered four to one. Santa Anna had his men ready for the fight, and the Texians didn't show up. He told his men to take a nap and relax. Santa Anna went into his tent with a gal, who was a secret friend of the Texians, who later became known as "The Yellow Rose of Texas." She seduced Santa Anna, and when the Texians came, he had his pants down, and there was no one to lead his forces. They lost, and the Republic of Texas was born. Santa Anna cancelled the silver deal with France.

Napoleon III did everything in his power to obtain Mexican Silver, and he succeeded, but not in the way he wanted. He never got to own the mines or colonize Sonora, despite numerous efforts, sending representatives, threatening force, being diplomatic, or a dozen other attempts. While he was trying though, silver was indeed flowing from Mexico to France. The catastrophic shortage of silver in Europe, and especially France had been abated somewhat. In 1863, wising up, Mexico prohibited the export of all silver.

This succinctly points out how important gold and silver are, because they are real, honest MONEY. A hundred and fifty years ago, Just about all currencies were backed by gold and silver, and silver was the accepted coinage around the world. Daily purchases and transactions were done with silver coins, and gold was in various treasuries to back the currencies. Everyone had real gold and silver coins, which were, and still are, MONEY in the truest sense of the word. It was an accepted fact of life, and no one questioned the sense of it. Inflationary times weren't part of anyone's vocabulary, other than in war times, when un-backed paper currencies were attempted, and always failed. France was desperate for silver, just to carry on normal transactions between citizens. The Indians were smart enough to demand silver for their cotton, and any nation without gold and silver, was in a terrible fix. How times have changed! Today, true money is shunned by the majority, and worthless pieces of paper with engravings on them, are accepted as valuable and as money. They are neither, and as time progresses and the presses continue rolling out trillions of notes, more and more will realize the fallacy of it all, and wish they had taken their surplus and placed it in gold and silver.

Today, as was true under Napoleon III, there is a shortage of silver. We are using twice what is being produced. The world is also consuming twice the gold that is being produced. How long before it becomes a general realization that the true monies are the way to save, making them cost ever more in paper currencies? I say not long, and when prices of gold and silver skyrocket in FRN's, that will be an indication. Protect yourself.

October 22, 2004

Don Stott has been a precious metals broker since 1977, has written five books, hundreds of columns, and his web site is http://www.coloradogold.com

Germony

RE: Englisch - Deutsch für Märkte, Börsen....

vielen Dank,

geht ächt gut runter.

Ich kam auf die Idee, als ich im Forum immer mal wieder sah,
dass nicht wenige Teilnehmer Probleme mit den hineingestellten
englischen Texten hatten und zu Übersetzungen aufforderten.

Ich sehe aber insofern keinen Sinn, meine Zeit mit Übersetzungen
zu verbringen, da es diejenigen welche dann von den Übersetzungen
abhängig sind, weiter in dieser Abhängigkeit belässt.

Ich gebe lieber eine Start-Möglichkeit für die Hilfe zur Selbsthilfe,
um deren Unabhängigkeit zu fördern.

Passt auch besser zu Gold- und Silber-Fans. Schliesslich ist
es zumeist die Unabhängigkeit im Denken und der Wille zur
Selbsthilfe welche uns hierher geführt hat.

Gruss

Germoney

Gold versus Rand Chart (von Rodin, http://www.contrarianthinker.com/

Teil 1 (A-M)
A

accident insurance (Versicherungen) => Unfallversicherung
accounting year, fiscal year => Geschäftsjahr
accrued interest => Stückzinsen
accumulate (to) => thesaurieren, sammeln
acquisition costs (Versicherungen) => Abschlusskosten




after-market (Börse) => nach Ende des offiz. Handels




aim of the fund => Anlageziel des Fonds




annual premium (Versicherungen) => Jahresprämien
annual report => Rechenschaftbericht, jährl.
annual turnover => Jahresumsatz
antitrust authority => Kartellbehörde




APEC => Asiatisch-Pazifisches Wirtschaftskooperations-Forum
appraised drills (Öl) => Bewertungsbohrungen




ask => Briefkurs, zu dem Nachfrage besteht
assessment for tax => Steuerveranlagung
asset disposals => Verkäufe von Aktiva (Töchter, Beteiligungen)
asset inflation => Inflation der Vermögenswerte
asset management => Vermögensverwaltung
assets => bei Banken: Bilanzsumme, sonst : Aktiva
assets under management => Volumen der verwalteten Vermögenswerte




at par (Anleihen) => zu pari (100%)




audit certificate => Bestätigungsvermerk, Prüfung, Wirtschaftsprüfung
audit of the annual report => Prüfung des Jahresabschlusses
auditor => Prüfer, Wirtschaftsprüfer
auditor's fee => Kosten für die Jahresprüfung




average costs => Durchschnittskosten
average price => Durchschnittskurs
average yield => Durchschnittsrendite
average yield of the securities portfolio => Verzinsung ( durchschnittl., des Wertpapiervermögens)

B

backlog => Auftragsbestand
bad loans => notleidende Kredite
balance sheet => Bilanz
baltic sea => Ostsee, NICHT Baltische See
bank bonds => Bank-Schuldverschreibungen
bank deposits => Bankguthaben
banking supervisory authority => Bankaufsichtsbehörde
bargain hunting (Börse) => kursgünstige Anschaffungen
base rate => Basiszinssatz, Konsumentenkredite




bear market => Börsenabschwung, Baisse
bearer bond => Inhaber-Schuldverschreibung
bearer instruments => Inhaberpapiere
benchmark index (Börse) => führender Index, Leitindex
benign neglect => wohlwollende Vernachlässigung




bid => Geldkurs, zu diesem kurs liegen Verkaufsangebote vor
bid-to-cover ratio (Wertpapier-Verkauf) => Verhältnis Gebote/Zuteilungen
BIS, Bank for International Settlement => BIZ , Bank für Internationalen Zahlungsausgleich, Basel




Board of Directors => Verwaltungsrat
Board of Managing Directors => Geschäftsführung
BoCda, Bank of Canada => Kanad. Zentralbank
BOE, Bank of England => engl. Zentralbank
BOJ, Bank of Japan => japan. Zentralbank
bond, debenture => Anleihen, Obligationen, Schuldverschreibungen
.. muni bond, municipal bond => Kommunal-Anleihen, -Obligation
.. corporate bonds => Firmen-Anleihen, - Schuldverschreibungen
.. utility bonds => Anleihen von Versorgungsunternehmen (Energie, Wasser)
.. convertible bonds => Wandel-Schuldverschreibungen
.. federal bonds => US-Bundesanleihen
.. government bonds => Staatsanleihen
.. mortgage bonds => Pfandbriefe
bond funds => Renten-, Anleihen-Fonds
bond issue => Anleiheemission
bond market => Anleihemarkt, Rentenmarkt
bond yield => Anleihen-, Renten-Rendite
book profit => Buchgewinn
book squaring (Börse) => Glattstellung der Positionen
book-to-bill ratio (Konjunktur) => Verhältnis Auftragseingang/Auslieferung
borrowing => Kreditaufnahme




broker => Makler (Wertpapiere)
brokerage => Maklergebühren
brokerage income (Banken, Wertpapierhandel) => Provisionseinnahmen




building permits (Konjunktur) => Baugenehmigungen
bull market => Börsenaufschwung, Hausse
buy-out-order => Abfindungsangebot (z.B. an freie Aktionäre bei Firmen-Übernahmen)

C

calculation => Berechnung, Kalkulation
calculation of the issue price => Berechnung des Ausgabepreises
capacity utilization (Konjunktur, Bilanz) => Kapazitätsauslastung
capital gains tax => Kapitalertragssteuer
capital goods (Bilanz) => Investitionsgüter
capital growth => Kapitalzuwachs
capital market => Kapitalmarkt
capital spending => Investitionen
capital surplus (Bilanz) => Kapital-Rücklage
cash => bar
cash call => Kapital-Erhöhung
cash distribution (Bilanz) => Barausschüttung




CCS - continuing costs for supply (ÖL) => laufende Kosten (Öl-Firmen)




central parity rate => Leitkurs




Chairman => Vorsitzender
Chairman of the Board of Managing Directors => Vorstandsvorsitzender
chart buying (Börse) => chart-technisch orientierte Anschaffungen
churn (Bilanz, Handel) => Wechselrate/Fluktuation der Kunden




circulation (Wertpapiere) => Umlauf, sich im Umlauf befindende ...
civil engineering (Konjunktur) => Hoch- und Tiefbau




claims (Versicherungen) => Schadensansprüche
claims percentage (Versicherungen) => Schadensquote
closed -end-fund => geschlossener Fonds




coil steel (Produktion) => Bandstahl
commercial production (Öl, Gas) => kommerzielle Förderung
commission (Handel) => Provision, Kommission
commission for encashment of coupons => Einlösungskosten für Kupons, Ertragsscheine
composite insurance companies (Versicherungen) => Universal-Versicherer
construction spending (Konjunktur) => Bauausgaben, Bauinvestitionen
consumer => Verbraucher
consumer confidence => Verbraucher-Vertrauen
consumer electronics => Unterhaltungselektronik
consumer price index , CPI => Verbraucherpreis-Index (allg. Inflation auf Konsumentenebene)
consumer spending, expenditures, consumption expenditures (Konjunktur) => Verbraucher-Ausgaben
conversion rate => Umrechnungskurs, Konversionskurs
convertible bonds => Wandel-Schuldverschreibungen
core inflation => Kerninflation ( ohne Obst/Gemüse, Energie)
corporate news => Unternehmensmeldungen
corporate tax => Körperschaftssteuer
coupon => Kupon, Kuponbogen, Ertragsschein
coupon date => Kupon-Termin
coupon sheet => Kuponbogen
covering (Börse) => Deckungskäufe




CPI - Consumer Price Index => Verbraucherpreis-Index (allg. Inflation auf Verbraucherebene)




crawling peg (Währungen) => gleitende Parität, Gleitparität
credit loss => Kreditverlust




CS - Credit Suisse => Schweizerische Kreditanstalt
CSFB - Credit Suisse First Boston

currency => Währung
current account (Konjunktur) => Leistungsbilanz
custody, to take into custody => Verwahrung, in Verwahrung nehmen
custodian fees, custody fee => Depot-Gebühren
custody business => Depotverwaltung
custody charges => Kosten der Depotverwaltung/Wertpapierverwahrung




cyclicals (Börse) => zyklische Werte

D

deadline => Fristablauf
deferred income tax (Bilanz, US) => latente Steuern
demonination => Stückelung, Anteilsstückelung
depositary bank => Depotbank
depreciation and amortization (Bilanz, US) => Abschreibungen und Wertberichtigungen




direct investment => Direktanlage
discount rate => Diskontsatz
distribution (Bilanz) => Ausschüttung
distribution coupon => Kupon, Ertragsschein
diversification in sectors => Streuung nach Bereichen, Geschäfts-Sektoren
dividend => Dividende




DOE, Department of Energy (US) => Energiebehörde, Energieministerium
domestic bond => Inlandsanleihe
domestic income (Bilanz) => inländische Einkünfte
door-to-door sale => Haustürverkauf
double-witching (Börse) => zweifacher Verfallstermin, (kleiner Hexensabbat)
downstream (Öl) => Verarbeitung und Vermarktung
downtick rule (Börse NY) 0> Handelsbeschränkung bei DJIA-Plus von 50 Punkten
DOT, Department of Transportation (GB) => Verkehrsbehörde, Verkehrsministerium




due dilligence => Wirtschafts- und Finanzprüfung, Wertanalyse
durable goods orders (Konjubktur) => Auftragseingang für langfristige Wirtschaftsgüter

E

earnings (extraordinary) => ausserordentlicher Ertrag
earnings (ordinary) => ordeltlicher, gewöhnlicher Geschäftsertrag




EBIT, EBITDA Earnings before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization =>
operatives Ergebnis vor Zinsen, Steuern, Abschreibungen und Wertberichtigungen auf immaterielle Güter
EBRD, European Bank of Reconstruction and Development, London => Europäische Bank für Wiederaufbau und Entwicklung




economic data => Konjunktur-Daten




emercency rate => Sonder-Lombard (z.B. Belgien)
emerging markets => Schwellen-Länder-Märkte, aufstrebende Staaten




engine => bei KFZ : Motoren, bei Flugzeugen: Triebwerke
engineering (Konjunktur) => Maschinen- und Anlagenbau




EPA, Environmental Protection Agency (US) => US-Umweltbehörde
EPS, Earning per Share => Gewinn pro Aktie




equity income (Bilanz, US) => Beteiligungserträge




exceptional charge (Bilanz) => Sonderaufwand oder ausserordentlicher Aufwand
exchange risks => Währungsrisiken
existing home sales (Konjuktur, US) => Verkauf gebrauchter Einfamilienhäuser
expiry (Börse) => Auslauf oder Verfall von Terminkontrakten
extension of the fund => Investitionsgrad des Fonds

F

FAA - Federal Aviation Administration => US-Flugaufsichts-Behörde
factory orders (Konjunktur) => Auftragseingang der Industrie




feasibility study => Machbarkeitsstudie
FED - Federal Reserve => US-Bundesreserve/US-Notenbank
Federal Banking Supervisory Authority => US-Bundesaufsichtsamt für das Kreditwesen
federal bonds => US-Bundesanleihen
fee, charge => Gebühr




fibre optic => Glasfaser
fiscal year => Geschäftsjahr (bei Unternehmen), Fiskaljahr (bei Staatsbezug)
fixed assets => Anlagen
fixed capital formation (Konjunktur) => Ausrüstungsinvestitionen im Bruttoinlandprodukt
fixed income securities, fixed interest bearing securities => festverzinsliche Wertpapiere
fixed-rate medium term notes => Kassenobligation
fixed-term advances rate => Lombard-Äquivalent , z.B. in Italien




flat (Börse) => flau, kaum verändert
floating-rate notes => Anleihen mit variablem Zinssatz

foc- free of charge => kostenlos
FOMC - Federal Open Market Comitee => Offenmarktausschuss der FED
foreign currency adjustments (Bilanz, US) => Währungsausgleichs-Posten
foreign currency translation adjustments (Bilanz) => Währungsausgleichs-Posten
Forex Market , foreign exchange market => Devisenhandel, -markt
fraction of an unit => Anteils-, Stückelungs-Bruchteil
fresh buing (Börse) => Neu-Anschaffungen




FTC - Federal Trade Commision => US-Handelsaufsichts-Ausschuss




fund => Fonds, auch Sonder-Vermögen
fund assets => Fondsvermögen
fund buying/selling (Börse) => fondsbezogene Käufe/Verkäufe
fund management => Fondsverwaltung
fund share redemptions => Mittelabflüsse bei Fonds
fund share sales => Mittelzuflüsse bei Fonds
fund unit => Fondsanteil

G

GAAP - Generally Accepted Accounting Pricipals => US-Bilanzierungsregeln der New York Stock Exchange
gains on sales of assets (Bilanz) => Gewinne aus Anlageverkäufen




GBP - Great Britain Pound => Pfund Sterling Britische Währung (ISO-Kürzel)




GDP - Gross Domestic Product => BIP - Bruttoinlandsprodukt




German Investment Company Act => KAGG - Kapitalanlagengesellschaften-Gesetz
geographical diversification => (Anlage)-Streuung nach geographischen Bereichen




Gilts (Anleihen, GB) => britische Staatsanleihen




GNP - Gross National Product => BSP - Bruttosozialprodukt




goodwill amortization (Bilanz) => Abschreibungen auf den Unternehmenswert
government bond => Staatsanleihe




GRD - Greek Drachme => griechische Währung (ISO-Kürzel)
grace period (Kredite) => Freijahre (zinslose Jahre)
gross distribution (including tax credit) => Gesamtausschüttung (einschl. Steuergutschrift)
gross dividend => Bruttodividende
growth => Wachstum

H

health insurance (Versicherungen) => Krankenversicherung
heavyweights (Börse, Indexe) => stark gewichtete Werte, Index-Schwergewichte
hedge selling => Sicherungsabgaben




historic costs (Öl) => Einstandskosten
HKD - Hongkong Dollar => Hongkong-Währung (ISO-Kürzel)
House of Concillors (Japan) => japan. Oberhaus
House of Representatives (USA/Japan) => US: Repräsentantenhaus, JP: Unterhaus
household aplliance maker => Haushaltsgerätehersteller
household confidence => Verbraucher-Vertrauen
household spending (Konjunktur)=> privater Verbrauch, Konsumenten-Ausgaben
housing starts (US-Konjunktur) => Neubauvorhaben




hydro power plants => Wasserkraftwerke

I

IAEO - International Atomic Energy Organization => Internationale Atomenergie-Organisation, Wien
IAS - International Accounting Standard => Internat. Bilanzierungsregeln




ICANN - Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers => Gremium zur Verwaltung der Internet-Adressen




IEA - International Energy Agency => Internationale Energieagentur, Paris
IEP - Irish Pound => Irisches Pfund (ISO-Kürzel)




ILS - Israelic Schekel => Israelische Währung (ISO-Kürzel)




IMF - International Monetary Fund => IWF - Internationaler Währungsfonds




in lieu of => anstelle, stattdessen
income tax => Einkommenssteuer
income tax return => Einkommenssteuer-Erklärung
income taxes (US-Bilanz) => Ertragssteuern
income, earnings (Bilanz) => Ertrag
indexed bond, indexed loan => Indexanleihe
initial charge (Fonds) => Ausgabeaufschlag
interest coupon => Zinskupon
interest expense (Bilanz) => Zinsaufwendungen
interest income (Bilanz) => Zinserträge
interest rate => Zinssatz
interim dividend => Abschlagsdividende
interim report => Zwischenbericht
.. semi-annual report => Halbjahresbericht, Halbjahresbilanz
international orientation => international Ausrichtung
invest (to, in) => anlegen (in)
investment => Kapitalanlage, Anlage
investment advisory committee => Anlage-Ausschuss
investment company => Kapitalanlagegesellschaft, Investmentgesellschaft
investment fund certificate => Investmentzertificat
investment fund saving => Investmentsparen
investment income => Einkünfte aus Kapitalvermögen
investment policy => Anlagepolitik
investment portfolio => Vermögensaufstellung
investment portfolio management => Vermögensverwaltung
investment restrictions => Anlagegrenzen, - beschränkungen
investment strategy => Anlagestrategie
investments and other assets (Bilanz) => Finanzanlagevermögen
investments in foreign currencies => Währungsanlagen
investor => Kapitalanleger




IPR - intellectual property rights => Urheberrechte
IPO - initial public offering (Aktien) => erstmaliges öffentliches Zeichnungsangebot




IQD - Iraquian Dinar => Irak-Dinar (ISO-Kürzel)




IRS - Internal Revenue Service => US-Steuerbehörde




ISK - Icelandic Krona => Isländische Krone (ISO-Kürzel)
issuances of debt (US-Bilanz) => Aufnahme langfristiger Kredite
issuances of stocks (US-Bilanz) => Aktienausgabe, Aktienemission
issue => Emission
issue price (Aktien, Anleihen) => Ausgabekurs, Emissionskurs
issuer => Emittient




ITL - Italian Lira => Italienische Lira (ISO-Kürzel)

J

JMD - Jamaican Dollar => Jamaika-Dollar (ISO-Kürzel)




jobless claims (US-Konjunktur) => Erstanträge auf Arbeitslosenunterstützung
.. continuing claims => Folgeanträge/Verlängerungsanträge auf Arbeitslosenunterstützung
JOD - Jordanian Dinar => jordanischer Dinar (ISO-Kürzel)
joint stock company (Russland) => Aktiengesellschaft




JPY - Japan Yen => japan. Währung (ISO-Kürzel)

K

key index (Börse) => führender Index, führendes Marktbarometer

L

lackluster (Börse) => lustlos, matt, glanzlos
leading indicators (Konjunktur) => Frühindikatoren




liability insurance (Versicherungen) => Haftpflichtversicherung
like-for-like base => auf vergleichbarer Basis
limit (of investment) => (Anlage-) Grenze
listing (Börse) => Börseneinführung, Notierung




loan loss provisions (Bilanz) => Rückstellungen für Kreditverluste, Risikovorsorge
LOC - Letter of Credit => Kreditverbriefung, Zahlungserklärung (Internat. Zahlungsverkehr)
LOI - Letter of Intend => Absichtserklärung
long-term debt (US-Bilanz) => langfristige Kredite, Verbindlichkeiten
long-term engagement => langfristiges Engagement
long term savings business => Versicherungs-Versorgungsgeschäft (brit. Versicherer)
loss of value => Wertverlust




LUF - Luxembourg Franc => Luxemburgischer Franc (ISO-Kürzel)

M

management fee => Verwaltungsvergütung
management of securities portfolio => Verwaltung von Wertpapieren
Managing Director => Geschäftsführer
manufactured goods (Konjunktur) => Fertigwaren, Insustrieerzeugnisse
manufacturers (Industrie) => Produzenten
market capitalization => Marktkapitalisierung
maturity => Fälligkeit
maturity pattern => Laufzeitenstruktur




Member of the Board of Managing Directors => Vorstandsmitglied
merchandise balance, merchandise trade => Handelsbilanz
mixed unit fond => Mischfonds




MMC - Monopolies and Mergers Commission => (britische) Kartellbehörde




monetary council => Rat für Geldpolitik (z.B. Banque de France)
money market => Geldmarkt
money market securities => Geldmarktpapiere
money supply = Geldmenge
mortgage bank => Hypothekenbank
mortgage bond => Pfandbrief
MOU - memorandum of understanding => Grundsatzvereinbarung




municipal bond => Kommunalanleihe
mutual insurance/assurance => Versicherung auf Gegenseitigkeit
MZM - Money of Zero Maturity => Geldmenge, nur Bar/Sichteinlagen

Ulfur,Ghost_god, extrel, Spieler0815, afm

ihr habt alle in einem gewissen Sinne Recht.

Um jedoch -möglichst allgemeinverständlich - die Grundlage für
eine gemeinsame Basis zu erarbeiten , meine Ansichten/Informationen
dazu:

In allen Rohstoff-Märkten, wo die Ablieferung von den saisonalen
äusseren Bedingungen (Ernte, Wetter,Temperatur) abhängt, überwiegt
in aller Regel die physikalische Lieferung und der physikalische Bezug.

Das trifft in erster Linie auf Commodities wie Weizen, Reis, Orangensaft,
Mais, Gewürze zu. Es handelt sich im wesentlichen um Absicherungs-
geschäfte der Erzeuger und der der Verbraucher aus der Nahrungsmittel-
Weiterverarbeitung. Tatsächlich ist hier der vom Gesamtvolumen rein
finanziell abgewickelte Teil gering, zumeist unter 5%.

Ziemlich gleichartig verhält es sich mit allen Vieh-und Fleisch-Rohstoff-
Geschäften, hier ist der rein finanziell abgewickelte nur unwesentlich höher .

Bei Energie-Produkten ist der rein finanziell abgewickelte Teil saisonal
und marktabhängig. Der Herbst, aber auch volatile Märkte fördern den spekulativen Anteil. Mir ist aber nicht bekannt, das der spekulative
Anteil je oberhalb von 20% des Gesamtmarktes gelegen hätte.

Gleiches gilt für die Basis-Metalle.

Kommt es jedoch zu Gold und Silber, besteht der überwiegende
Anteil aus dem spekulativen Bereich, welcher selbstverständlich
die rein finanzielle Abwicklung bevorzugt.

-*-*-*-

Einmal davon abgesehen, dass ein hoher spekulativer Anteil der
ursprünglichen Idee und Absicht für solchen Handel entgegenlaufen:
- Absicherung der Erzeuger, passable Verkaufspreise vorab zu
sichern.
- Absicherung der Verbraucher /Weiterverarbeiter der Rohstoffe,
günstige/annehmbare Einkaufspreise zu sichern.

Zumeist wird bei den Erzeugern und Verbrauchern auch
nur eine teilweise Absicherung/Versicherung vorgenommen.

Steigt der spekulative Anteil im Markt, führt das naturgemäss
auch zu erhöhter Preis-Volatilität, denn Spekulation liebt
das schnelle Auf und Ab der Preise. Die Absicht der
Erzeuger und Verbraucher, durch die Absicherung möglichst
stabile Preise zu bekommen , wird dadurch unterlaufen.

-*-*-*-

Ab einer gewissen Grösse kann der spekulative Anteil dann
zur Instabilität des Marktes und zur Krise führen.
Dass im Bereich von Gold und Silber das Verhältnis bereits weit
jenseits von Gut und Böse ist, und jederzeit - bedingt durch ein
unerwartetes Ereignis - nicht nur zur Preisexplosion, sondern
sogar zum finanziellen Systemrisiko beitragen kann, muss
ich Butler, GATA etc. uneingeschränkt zustimmen.

Germoney

vom 17.Oktober

Trading HUI Parabolas

http://www.gold-eagle.com/gold_digest_04/hamilton101504.html

Ich habe zwar CDU.TO bereits seit eineinhalb Jahren auf meiner
'zu beobachten ' -Liste, aber substanziell überzeugt es mich nicht
- vielleicht habe ich einfach bereits zuviel durch das Dorf getriebene
Schweine gesehen -

Bei den eher ' speziellen' Minen-Aktien gehe ich raus, wenn ich
gute Nachrichten verbreitet sehe - denn wenn gekauft wird ,
vermeldet es niemand, nur wenn Investierte vekaufen möchten,
dann häufen sich die positiven Nachrichten.

Es ist nicht einfach mit den Investments :

- als ich 1982 im persönlichen Bekannten-Kreis die
Meinung lossliess, , man sollte für ein längerfristiges
Engagement insbesondere Aktien ins Auge fassen, haben
mich die Überzahl der Zuhöhrer angesehen, als ob ich
gerade ein massiv obzönes Angebot offeriert hätte.

- als ich 1997 sagte, ich könne die Internet/New Technology
Hype einfach nicht mehr ertragen, wurde ich als 'Spinner'
abgetan - meine beiden Schwestern gehörten dazu -

- als ich 2001 meinen beiden Schwestern empfahl, sich
in Gold/Silber und entsprechenden Minen-Aktien zu
positionieren, war die Antwort ' ich habe schon soviel
in die Telekom reingesteckt, ich warte erst einmal ab'.

Fazit: Gute Ratschläge werden in der Regel ignoriert.,
denn sie kosten ja nichts - bezahlt wird erst später.

Germoney

2 - 3 $ plus im asian market possible?

Re: Mining Und Venezela:

Hecla Mining hatte vor wenigen Monaten ein paar Probleme mit
der Regierung von Venezuela. Soweit ich weiss, sind die aber inzwischen ausgeräumt.

Newmont Mining hat erst jüngst - vorgeblich eine Differenz um
ökologische Belange - in Indonesien.

Man das politische Umfeld immer im Auge haben.

Die beste Vorgehensweise ist m.E. darauf zu achten, dass nicht ein wesentlicher oder gar überwiegender Anteil der Erträge einer Minengesellschaft in politisch 'problematischen' Ländern erwirtschaftet
werden.

Mit einer Ausnahme, es gibt bereits Differenzen zwischen einer Regierung und einer Minengesellschaft , der Kurs hat nicht unerheblich darunter gelitten, es ist zu ersehen, dass beide im Grunde eine Poker-Partie veranstalten, und man Lust und Nerven hat, ein bisschen mitzupokern.

Germoney

Re: Öl/Gold, Öl/Euro
deine Bemerkung :

Das belegt doch nur die von mir mehrfach gemachte Aussage,
dass sich der Goldpreis in Euro bisher praktisch nicht bewegt hat.
Das tagtägliche Bild: Der Dollar verliert, als Ausgleich steigt der
Goldpreis und umgekehrt. Interessant wird es erst, wenn der Goldpreis
sich vom Dollar abkoppelt, vorher lohnen sich eher Derivate,
Investmentalternativen, etwas Gold zur Absicherung. Das ist nicht
erstaunlich, sondern bekannt und leicht verifizierbar, ging hier
wahrscheinlich in der dominierenden Massenmeinung unter.

Ich stimme dir im wesentlichen zu, wobei ich ergänzend sagen möchte ,
erst wenn die Parallelität Gold <=> Euro bricht, wird es wirklich interessant
. Tatsächlich handle ich seit geraumer Zeit so, ich habe einen festen Teil in
physikalischem Gold und Silber, und habe einen anderen Teil, welcher
in mehrmonatigen Abständen neu gewichtet wird und in einem Gold-Fonds
und Silber-Minen investiert ist, alles was nicht gerade dort ist, wird in einem Geldmarktfonds geparkt.
Die Gewichtung ist zumeist zwischen 30% Gold/Silberminen und 80%
Gold/Silberminen.
(Zur Zeit bin ich seit May aussnahmsweise 100%, schätze aber, dass
ich es irgendwann in den kommenden 2-2 1/2 Monaten auf 70%
reduzieren werde.

Germoney

p.s. Es folg ein Chart, welcher mir persönlich oft sehr geholfen hat.
Gold in Euro :
- unter 3.20 habe ich zugekauft, über 3.40 habe ich anteilmässig verkauft.
(Interessant wird es m.E. wenn das Verhältnis nachhaltig die
3.55 er Grenze nach oben durchbricht..)

Re: Vergleich auch in Schweizer Franken

(Habe Hier den Vergleich für ÖL (WTIC Light Sweet Crude) zu CHF
leider nur von '97 - '04 ... sieht aber der Öl/Euro äusserst ähnlich ,
was auch abzusehen war,)

p.s. In CHF ist der jetzige Kurs bereits über den 2000/01 er Top
ausgebrochen.

WTIC in EURO

Ich habe mir erst kürzlich wieder die Parallelen Gold/öl angeschaut. Es gibt eine aber nur langjährig/indirekt.
Was mir dabei eher zufällig auffiel, als ich mit Vergleichen 'herumspielte" ist
folgendes:

Öl in Gold und Öl in Euros sehen wie Zwillinge aus:

HUI -60min

HUI -daily

Charts von Leuten die in der Vergangenheit oft sehr gute Treffer landeten.

User "Lincoln"

http://stockcharts.com/gallery?$hui

Bullish price objective 266 auf der point&figure chart

User "smsc"

HUI - weekly

Kupfer zeigt schon wie es später bei Gold und Silber werden kann....[SIZE=12]

http://www.mrci.com/pdf/hg.pdf

Germoney

SCHADE,

du wirst uns allen ausserordentlich fehlen.

Anyway, good luck and a metric ton of gold.

Germoney

p.s. vielleicht sieht man sich ja irgendwo wieder,
(gold-eagle oder so).