Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

God bless the debt nation No.1 America ...but not Bush !
http://www.alkalizeforhealth.net/Ldebtclock.htm

The Bush Administration sucks, the next President is a Democrat.
Somebody must stop this Wanker who plans WW3.
Oiladdicts come from Texas, soon they get 5 USD per Gallon, than they gone cry loud with their SUV's. :D....end

Washington - A computer hacker stole a file containing the names and social security numbers of 1 500 people working for the energy department's nuclear weapons agency.

Officials told a congressional hearing on Friday that the department's senior managers were informed only two days ago of last September's incident, which was somewhat similar to recent problems at the veterans affairs department.

None of the victims was notified, they said.

The data theft occurred in a computer system at a service centre belonging to the national nuclear security administration in New Mexico.

No more comments Texas Girl, let the pictures speak !

ich sag nix mehr, sonst bumm !

Eldo trollt sich ueber die mit den Wolf heulen -- in Texas ganz besonders.

Houston, we get a blow off ....in personal debts !

PAULSON'S OTHER JOB AS WALL ST. PLUNGE PROTECTOR

June 8, 2006

-- QUICK, somebody tell soon- to-be Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson about the other part of his job: being a member of the Plunge Protection Team.

What is that? It's something that Wall Street is gonna need if the stock market continues to be freaky.

But this is a story that's best told in chronological order.

Back during a stock market crisis in 1989, a guy named Robert Heller - who had just left the Federal Reserve Board - suggested that the government rig the stock market in times of dire emergency.

Yep! He didn't use the word "rig" but that's what he meant.

Proposed as an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal, it's a seminal argument that says when a crisis occurs on Wall Street "instead of flooding the entire economy with liquidity, and thereby increasing the danger of inflation, the Fed could support the stock market directly by buying market averages in the futures market, thus stabilizing the market as a whole."

Had Heller been any other schmoe who writes op-ed pieces for The Journal this would have been long forgotten. But he had served for three years as a governor at the Fed and this proposal had the look of a trial balloon since stocks had just fallen sharply on Oct. 13, 1989, and memories of the 1987 crash were still fresh.

Over the next few years people like me (meaning, those who watch the financial world with a critical eye rather than a blind one) suspected that Heller's plan was indeed in effect. Whenever the stock market was in trouble someone seemed to ride to the rescue.

Often it was a Wall Street firm that seemed more courageous than fiscally responsible. Often it appeared to be Goldman Sachs, which just happens to be where Paulson and former Clinton Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin worked.

Did the U.S. Treasury actually have an allocation of money to carry out what Heller had suggested - that is, throwing fresh investment cash in front of a falling market until it stopped declining? For a while I thought something called the Currency Stabilization Fund - which actually exists at the U.S. Treasury but is meant for currency stability - was the slush fund used for this venture.

I was told by people who claimed to know that this part of the theory wasn't so.

There was no way to prove that these surreptitious government intrusions into the stock market were actually occurring. In fact, just mentioning these possibilities got a person branded as a conspiracy nut.

This country, the critics would say, never interferes with its free capital markets. Sure, there's intervention in the currencies markets. And, yes, the Federal Reserve does manipulate the bond market and interest rates through word and deed.

But never, ever would such action be taken at the core of capitalism - the equity markets, which for better or worse must operate without interference.

That's the way the standoff stayed until 1997 when - at the height of the Last of the Great Bubbles - someone in government decided it wanted the world to know that there was someone actually paying attention in case Wall Street could not handle its own problems.

The Working Group on Financial Markets - affectionately known as the Plunge Protection Team - suddenly came out of the closet.

Today - with the stock market acting skittish again - the future Treasury Secretary should get ready to go to bat for PPTeam as soon as possible.

(Tuesday: How the Plunge Protection Team got exposed and my first-hand run in with the riggers.)

john.crudele@nypost.com

Equity markets were hit by comments from the Federal Reserve Chairman that indicated more interest rate hikes are possible. Ben Bernanke is worried that a slowdown in the US economy may not be sufficient to dampen inflation; hence the necessity to raise interest rates.

The equity markets are under pressure because higher interest rates reduce corporate profits and mean higher yields on debt investments, both bad for stocks. The economy in general suffers since corporations curtail investment spending and consumers take out less debt to finance their spending habits.

A recent report from the Fed showed that household debt increased at an annualized rate of 11.6% during the first quarter, so there is no indication yet that consumers have slowed down their accumulation of debt. Mortgage debt rose by $250 billion in the first quarter and home owners continue to cash out the equity in their homes. Interestingly enough, if we look at M3 data (that we calculate ourselves now since the Fed stopped publishing it) we notice that M3 increased by only $194 billion in the first quarter (less than the increase in mortgage debt) and that since April there has been a decline in M3. Whether this is just a seasonal effect is not clear at this stage, but it does seem that money supply growth has slowed down. I find it very amusing that Bernanke is concerned about rising inflation when M3 has declined by 1.15% in the past month (a monetary deflation).

Going forward, I see US economic growth as anemic at best, (Blutarm)...spilling over into other markets and reducing demand for commodities such as base metals. That’s why I am not bullish on base metals.

It appears that higher interest rates have already started having an effect on the growth in money supply. That could seriously hurt perceived economic growth, especially when cash-out house refinancings abate. Bernanke can of course fix that by “printing money” -- monetizing the US Federal Government’s debt.

Monetizing the debt would increase the money supply and reduce the outstanding debt, keeping interest rates in check at the same time. The risk with debt monetization is that fractional banking can cause a dramatic expansion of money supply and so debt monetization has to be administered carefully.

Further confusion is created by the Fed, on the one hand, calling for higher interest rates, which boost the US dollar exchange rate, and the Treasury on the other hand calling for a lower US dollar exchange rate to combat the growing US trade deficit. You may have noticed how metals prices slumped this week on the back of a rising US dollar fueled by Bernanke’s talk of higher interest rates.

More confusion will come when the dollar starts to fall in the face of rising interest rates
(see: http://www.paulvaneeden.com/displayArticle.php?articleId=101) and that is when gold will truly shine.

When that happens we could very well see the gold price rise while other metals prices fall since gold, unlike the other metals, is not a commodity.

In the meantime we are back to the same environment we were in for most of 2004 and part of 2005 when rising interest rates buoyed the US dollar exchange rate and kept a lid on the gold price.
This time, however, because there was so much hot, speculative money in metals, we are experiencing a correction instead.

I have no idea how long the correction will last or how much the gold price will drop, so for the time being I am sitting on the sidelines.

Paul van Eeden

Ps... And I go on a long holiday. ;)...NOW !
Take care and all the best, Gold and Silberbugs.

Adios, VIVIR ,.... Gold bless and protects you for sure.

Eldo

Zitat

Original von Edel Man
The Fed is as independent as new born child.

Seltsam. Diese Parallelen zur EZB, BB, ... und den hiesigen Politikern.

CENTRAL BANKERS ARE NO LONGER ABLE TO BEHAVE AS IF THEY ARE ON A GOLD STANDARD

By Adrian Douglas

Today I was pondering the relationship between the US dollar and gold. My study led me to produce some graphs which are extremely enlightening which I will share with you. In order to set the stage I want to reference an exchange between Ron Paul and Alan Greenspan before Congress, July 20, 2005. I have reproduced the entire exchange because I think it is critical in understanding the discussion that will follow.

QUOTE

Before the House Financial Affairs Committee, July 20, 2005

RON PAUL: If, indeed, this is your last appearance before our committee, Mr. Greenspan, I would have to say that, in the future, I’m sure I’ll find these hearings a lot less interesting.

But I do have a couple of parting questions for you. Keynes, when he wrote his general theory, made the point that he has tremendous faith in central bank credit creation because it would stimulate productivity.

But along with this, he also recognized that it would push prices and labor costs up. But he saw this as a convenience, not a disadvantage, because he realized that, in the corrective phase of the economic business cycle, that wages had to go down – which people wouldn’t accept, a nominal decrease in wages, but if they were decreased in real terms, it would serve the economic benefit.

Likewise, I think this same principle can be applied to our debt. To me, this system that we have today is a convenient way to default on our debt – to liquidate our debt after the inflationary scheme.

Even you, in the 1960s, described the paper system as a scheme for the confiscation of wealth.

And, in many ways, I think this is exactly what has happened. We have learned to adapt to deficit financing. But in many ways, the total debt is not that bad because it goes down in real terms.

As bad as it is, in real terms, it’s not nearly as high.

But, since we went on a total paper standard in 1971, we have increased our money supply essentially 12-fold. Debt in this country, federal debt, has gone up 19-fold – but that is in nominal dollars, not in real dollars.

So my question is this: Is it not true that the paper system that we work with today is actually a scheme to default on our debt? And is it not true that, for this reason, that’s a good argument for people not – eventually, at some day – wanting to buy Treasury bills because they will be paid back with cheaper dollars?

And, indeed, in our lifetime, we certainly experienced this in the late 1970s – that interest rates had to go up pretty high and that this paper system serves the interests of big government and deficit financing because it’s a sneaky way of paying for it.

At the same time, it hurts the people who are retired and put their money in savings.

And aligned with this question, I would like to ask something to dealing exactly with gold, is that: If paper money – today it seems to be working rather well – but if the paper system doesn’t work, when will the time come? What will the signs be that we should reconsider gold?

Even in 1981, when you came before the Gold Commission, people were frightened about what was happening – and that’s not too many years ago. And you testified that it might not be a bad idea to back our government bonds with gold in order to bring down interest rates.

So what are the conditions that might exist for the central bankers of the world to reconsider gold?

We do know that they haven’t given up on gold. They haven’t gotten rid of their gold. They’re holding it there for some reason.

So what’s the purpose of the gold if it isn’t with the idea that some day they might need it? They don’t hold lead or pork bellies. They hold gold.

So what are the conditions that you might anticipate when the world may reconsider gold?

MR. GREENSPAN: Well, you say central banks own gold – or monetary authorities own gold. The United States is a large gold holder. And you have to ask yourself: Why do we hold gold?

And the answer is essentially, implicitly, the one that you’ve raised – namely that, over the generations, when fiat monies arose and, indeed, created the type of problems – which I think you correctly identify – of the 1970s, although the implication that it was some scheme or conspiracy gives it a much more conscious focus than actually, as I recall, it was occurring. It was more inadvertence that created the basic problems.

But as I’ve testified here before to a similar question, central bankers began to realize in the late 1970s how deleterious a factor the inflation was.

And, indeed, since the late ’70s, central bankers generally have behaved as though we were on the gold standard.

And, indeed, the extent of liquidity contraction that has occurred as a consequence of the various different efforts on the part of monetary authorities is a clear indication that we recognize that excessive creation of liquidity creates inflation which, in turn, undermines economic growth.

So that the question is: Would there be any advantage, at this particular stage, in going back to the gold standard?

And the answer is: I don’t think so, because we’re acting as though we were there.

Would it have been a question at least open in 1981, as you put it? And the answer is yes.

Remember, the gold price was $800 an ounce. We were dealing with extraordinary imbalances, interest rates were up sharply, the system looked to be highly unstable – and we needed to do something.

Now, we did something. The United States – Paul Volcker, as you may recall, in 1979 came into office and put a very severe clamp on the expansion of credit, and that led to a long sequence of events here, which we are benefiting from up to this date.

So I think central banking, I believe, has learned the dangers of fiat money, and I think, as a consequence of that, we’ve behaved as though there are, indeed, real reserves underneath the system.

END

GOLD, SILVER, PLATINUM, PALADIUM AND DIAMONDS

Now that gold has sold off $100 Swiss bankers say funds and investors are allocating 20% of their commodity portfolios to precious metals. Dealers are watching Russia, the Middle East, India and China line up to buy so they are joining them.

In South Africa, the Marxist ANC government has produced an early draft of a bill on increased royalty charges, of between 1% and 8% of “gross revenue” on mined minerals. The diamond industry, the hardest hit on the top end of the range, has said the extra charges will result in thousands of job losses and mine closures. This law should close 1/3 of mines and discourage further mining formation.

Gold mining companies have a special tax dispensation, which sees taxes rising as high as 42% in a high gold price environment, against a general company tax across other industries of 29%. Add 42% and 6% and you have 48% that is an industry and development killer...

We wrote about two months ago about Iran buying gold at any price, well they are still doing so. Starting nine months ago they began a secret repatriation of their international currency reserve. Gold shipments last October and November of 25 tons arrived in Iran from Zurich. In January, Credit Suisse announced they would no longer accept new business from Iran and Syria. Iran had wanted to ship 700 tons of gold, but instead opted to send the money to Russia and Middle East banks. We don’t know for sure, but we believe most of their dollar balances at least ended up in gold. There are also rumors that an Islamic group of pro-Iranian Shiites in Iraq looted the Iraqi central bank and one of Saddam Hussein’s places after the US invasion and made off with 200 tons of gold. It is said that gold was sold in Pakistan and Azerbaijan...

It is rare that a gold market would fall 15.3%. The second worst fall was in April 1978, which was 15.3%. After the fall in April 1978, gold rose 500% in the following 21 months. That probably will happen again taking gold to $3,000...

http://news.goldseek.com/Inter…Forecaster/1150071244.php

Irgendjemand fand meine Massnahme, vor gut 2 Monaten alles
an PM-Shares zu verkaufen, eher etwas übertrieben.

Er hatte recht. Ich hätte noch 1-2 Wochen warten sollen.
(sorry, aber die Show mit - catch the top - ich krieg sie einfach
nicht richtig hin).

Ich wette auch (Scheine, kein Metall !!!) dass ich mit dem vorsichtigen
Einsteigen am vergangenen Freitag, etwas mehr am Montag und Heute,
schon wieder etwas früh bin (bei den Bottoms bin ich auch nicht besser,
hätte auch gerne nochmal den 65Week-MA oder den 365Day-MA (Gold)
angekratzt gesehen, bevor ich in die Vollen haue)

Aber nichtsdestotrotz, ich bin jetzt wieder 1/3 drin.

Allen viel Glück und starke Nerven. Von beiden kann man manchmal
garnicht genug haben.

Gruss

Germoney

Angst ist ein schlechter Ratgeber. Ich habe jedoch keine Zeit und Lust mich mit diesen Kursen zu beschäftigen. Ich verkaufe kein Gramm und werde nicht täglich die Kurse und die Medien verfolgen.

Wenn es in diesem Board nicht um unterbewertete Rohstoffe gehen würde, hätte ich sicher noch keinen Beitrag geschrieben.

Brot und Spiele für das Volk, eine hirnlose Massenbewegung, von der schon das Römische Reich gebrauch gemacht hat. Diese Möglichkeit wurde später auch noch von diversen anderen Führern genutzt.

Im Board stehen in dieser Zeit eh nur wenige hilfreiche Beiträge. Angst ist halt ein schlechter Ratgeber. Wenn Schuldenblase uns bei Silber 16 Dollar zur Hymne ruft, werde ich meinen 1000 Gramm Silberbarren ausgraben und die Hymne mit einem guten Riesling aus dem Rheingau genießen .

Grüsse von der Ersatzkasse

Orchestrated IMF/Gold Cartel/Commercial Bank/Fed Assault Will Not Stand

Their assault, and that is just what it has been, on gold did stand. Remember the info sent our way by a fellow Café member about what the Democratic Senator from a far western state said: the US Government has ordered the price of gold down as $700+ gold was freaking them out … that takedown was to include other commodities.

To accomplish their goal it is now very clear a substantial amount of central bank gold was mobilized, most likely US or IMF origin. Yes, there is substantial hedge fund, investor liquidation occurring around the world, and in all markets, but gold has been different. There wasn’t the normal spec build-up to liquidate like we saw in prior years. We know that because the open interest was going DOWN before this big break. This bombing is coming from the physical market.

The more I ponder this, the more it makes sense. The price of gold soared due to physical market buying by the Russians, Indians, Arabs, South Koreans, Chinese, Iranians, etc. That buying overpowered the available central bank supply. To calm the market down and bring the price lower, those buyers had to be punished, to be unnerved to some degree. The amount of mobilized central bank gold had to be very sizeable.

We now know why Goldman Sachs was so comfortable with their 40 to 50 thousand contract short position just on TOCOM alone. When you have been told the US Government and IMF is going to send in the cavalry to bail you out, you can be quite comfortable staying short.

When you get the wink and the nod from the 500 pound gorilla month after month, it is also not hard to understand how Goldman Sachs can come with these sort of results:

Goldman 2nd-Qtr Net More Than Doubles, Led by Trading

In Australien haben die Minen sich letzte Nacht teils deutlich erholt. Das gibt immerhin mal etwas Hoffnung für heute.
Ich erinnere mich an Aussagen von vor einigen Wochen, bzgl. der steigenden Volatilität und da wurde uns ja bisher nicht zu viel versprochen ... nur darf die Vola jetzt ruhig mal gen Norden drehen.

Wünsche allen einen erfolgreichen Tag.

...die Ferien hat's mir schon etwas verhagelt (selber schuld - was schau ich denn Börse, am WE geht's nach Hause) - was meint Ihr zu Steffens' Überlegung.....da per e-mail das Ganze
...irgendwie liegt man immer etwas richtig und etwas falsch

Der Bernanke-Crash ist ein Rohstoff-Crash!
von Jochen Steffens

Haben Sie das gestern mitgekriegt? Gold bricht um knapp 50 Dollar ein und hat nun fast 200 Dollar vom Hoch zum bisherigen Tief abgegeben, 23 % mittlerweile. In zwei Tagen verliert Gold somit über 10 %. Silber hat vom Hoch bereits schlappe 40 % eingebüßt, gestern allein über 16 %. Kupfer verzeichnete den größten Einbruch seit 20 Jahren.

Wie immer passiert das, woran ÜBERHAUPT NIEMAND gedacht hat. Nein, ich rede nicht von dem Einbruch der Rohstoffe an sich, der war nicht sonderlich überraschend (s.u.). Aber wie oft habe ich geschrieben, es wird einen Crash in einer Anlageklasse geben, der berühmte Notenbankwechselchef- Crash. Ich weiß wirklich nicht, wie oft ich den zitiert habe...

Ich habe dabei an den Dollar gedacht, an die Aktienmärkte, sogar die Bonds. Nicht jedoch daran, dass dieser Crash ja schließlich auch bei Rohstoffen eintreten kann.

Keiner redet von Crash!?
Und genau hier passierte es: Wir erleben aktuell einen Crash im Rohstoffmarkt und all den Emerging Markets deren Wirtschaft eng mit Rohstoffen verknüpft ist. So einfach kann es sein. Mich wundert nur, dass kaum jemand bei den oben genannten Zahlen so recht von Crash redet. Wahrscheinlich, weil alle noch vollkommen davon überzeugt sind, dass es sich hierbei lediglich um eine normale Korrektur in einem Aufwärtstrend handelt. Das erkennt man auch heute daran, wie massiv zurückgekauft wird. Wenn ich mir die Fahnenstangen, die sich zuvor in Gold und Silber gebildet hatten, anschaue, wäre ich mir nicht so sicher, dass der Crash schon zuende ist. Aber gut – warten wir ab, die Argumente der Rohstofftrader sind zumindest schlüssig: Hohe Nachfrage bei niedriger Produktion.

Obwohl es so nahe lag
Ich habe schließlich selbst nicht daran gedacht, dass die Anlageklasse für einen Notenbankchefwechsel-Crash auch Rohstoffe sein können. Das Beste ist, ich habe sogar noch vor diesem starken Einbruch gewarnt: Sie erinnern sich vielleicht - Zitat vom 26.04.2006:

„Was mir auffällt und skeptisch stimmt, ist diese unglaubliche Bullenstimmung auf dem Rohstoffmarkt. Natürlich, Rohstoff-Rallys neigen dazu, länger anzudauern, als man denkt. Das zeigt die historische Zyklik. Trotzdem, sollte sich an dem besagten Horizont eine Abschwächung der Weltwirtschaft zeigen, werden die meisten Rohstoffe einbrechen, wie Kartenhäuser bei Keuchhusten. Denn weniger Wirtschaftswachstum bedeutet auch, weniger Rohstoffnachfrage.

Da Gold mittlerweile durchaus auch ein industrieller Rohstoff ist, könnte das sogar auch für den Goldpreis dramatische Folgen haben. Machen Sie also nicht den Fehler, zu sehr in Rohstoffe investiert zu sein. Das kann im Falle einer Abschwächung der Weltwirtschaft fatal sein!“

Knapp zwei Wochen später bildete sich das letzte Hoch im Gold und die Rohstoffe brechen aus genau den genannten Gründen ein.

Doch was einfach fehlte, war die entsprechende Transferleistung. Welche Anlageklasse war es, die den stärksten Bullenmarkt erlebte? Was war in aller Munde? Was schmückte, wie ich geschrieben hatte, „in großen güldenen Lettern“ die Börsenzeitschriften? Gold und Rohstoffe.

Im Prinzip hätte man darauf kommen können/müssen: Wo also wird der Notenbankwechselcrash stattfinden? Bei den Rohstoffen, eigentlich logisch.

Für uns ist das eine eher beruhigende Entwicklung
Nun hat man dadurch nichts verloren oder gewonnen, dass man diese Transferleistung nicht erbracht hat. Aber es ist doch ein sehr wichtiger Hinweis: Denn, wir können nun etwas beruhigter sein. Das bedeutet nämlich auch, dass die Gefahr eines Crashs in Aktien oder dem Dollar, den Bonds deutlich gesunken ist (Sofern man die aktuelle Abwärtsbewegung nicht schon als Crash bezeichnet – dafür ist sie aber eigentlich noch (!) zu moderat und zäh).

Immer wieder faszinierend!
Ich liebe diese Börse, wie Sie es doch immer wieder schafft, gerade zu göttliche Offensichtlichkeiten hinter den Schleiern ihres Charmes zu verstecken. Ist Miss Börse nicht ein faszinierendes Wesen? Tagaus, tagein nähert sich ihr der geneigte Börsenenthusiast mehr und mehr, zutiefst erfüllt von monetären Begehrlichkeiten - lernt in ihren Augen zu lesen, studiert ihre Gestik, analysiert ihr Wesen – und immer, wenn er meint, er habe endlich Zugang zu ihr gefunden, schafft es Miss Börse ihn mit schmerzhafter Deutlichkeit zu überraschen.

Das Ende der Inflation!
Ja, und wo soll nun bitte schön die Inflation herkommen? Die Produzenten können nun erheblich billiger Rohstoffe einkaufen, als noch in den letzten Wochen. Das wird sich auf die Rohwarenpreise auswirken, anschließend auf die Zwischenpreise, zum Schluss auf die Erzeugerpreise. Diese Preisabschläge werden dann zeitversetzt und deutlich abgeschwächt auch die Kernraten erreichen, so wie jetzt die hohen Ölpreise die Kernraten erreicht haben. Wenn nun noch der Ölpreis weiter fallen sollte, werden wir bald schon negative Inflationszahlen oder zumindest sehr niedrige sehen (Wie gesagt, ich kann immer noch nicht beurteilen, wie viel der aktuellen Inflation durch das starke Wirtschaftswachstum in den USA und die Ausweitung der Geldmenge verursacht ist)

So gesehen müsste die Fed die Zinsen gar nicht mehr so weit anheben. Wann wird der Markt das begreifen? (alles unter der Voraussetzung, dass der Ölpreis weiter fällt und die Rohstoffe sobald kein neues Hoch ausbilden.) ?(?(

Ein wenig müssen wir uns wahrscheinlich noch gedulden, denn am Freitag ist dreifacher Hexensabbat – Oft entstehen deutliche Trendwechsel im Anschluss oder Umfeld dieser besonderen Verfallstage.

linar

- ich erwarte vom allgemeinen Markt bis Ende August/Mitte September
keine negativen Einflüsse mehr. (sieht so aus, als wäre dieser kräftige
Spike nach unten ähnlich wie {im DJIA} in den Jahren 1906,1916,1936,1946,1956,1966,1996 im Mai/Juni {1926 wars schon im März, 1976 und 1986 waren aus der Reihe} .

- der Dollar sollte spätestens bei 0,87 seine Grundrichtung wieder aufnehmen.

- ich glaube aber nicht, dass wir die Höchstkurse (Gold/Silber/HUI)noch dieses Jahr wieder erreichen.

- ich bin vorbereitet, bei USD680 oder bei HUI360 erneut Kasse zu machen. Der Zeitpunkt kann verhältnismässig schnell kommen (August/September ??)

- ich bin zur Zeit hälftig Öl&Exploration zu Gold-&Silber-Minen.
(Sieht mir so aus, als ob der XOI in den nächsten 3-4 Monaten besser
laufen wird als XAU oder HUI)

Gruss

Germoney