Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

  • zum Technik-Tipp vom 30.06. von Klaus Deppermann
    irgendeiner Privatbank o.ä. (es lohnt sich nicht, sich diesen Namen zu merken)

    Zitat

    Meistens befindet sich das Gold dabei in der Rolle des Vorläufermarktes


    gemeint ist Gold im Vergleich zum Dollar


    Ist das ein Depp - mann. Verstanden hat der schon mal gar nichts. Auch wenn er für Gold positiv gestimmt ist.


    Der hat bestimmt auch schon die ganze Zeit gesagt, das Öl billiger wird, weil wir seit 3 Jahren eine Flaute-Wirtschaft haben.
    Is halt ein Profi. :D

  • Wirtschaftswoche, Nr. 28 v. 1.7, S.112:


    Vermögensverwalter Joachim Paul Schäfer (PSM Langen v.d. Goltz & Dr. Prinz)


    Einschätzung der Lage an der Börse:


    "Alarm in Amerika" lautete jüngst eine Überschrift in einer großen deutschen Sonntagszeitung. Dem ist aus unserer Sicht wenig hinzuzufügen. Vor allem der US-Immobilienmarkt glüht weiß. In Rekordzeit konnte jüngst Jamestown, der Marktführer für geschlossene Immobilienfonds in den USA, die Anteile seines neuen Fonds an mehr als 12000 Anleger verkaufen. "Aber jetzt ist die Party vorbei", sagt Jamestown-Chef Christoph Kahl überraschend offen, "alte Füchse verkaufen im Moment das, was sie Mitte der Neunzigerjahre erworben haben und warten, bis die Blase platzt".


    Anlegern - die nicht nur in US-Immobilien investierten - sollte das mehr als eine Warnung sein. Zu groß sind die Blasen in den USA, als dass sie noch lange halten könnten. Fast 70 Prozent der US-Haushalte besitzen eigene Immobilien - allerdings sind die meisten voll beliehen und ohne ausreichende finanzielle Rücklage. Wie lange kann das noch gutgehen? Wie lange noch werden vor allem die Länder Asiens die US-Schuldenorgie finanzieren? Europäer tun gut daran, Barreserven aufzubauen und zu beobachten, was die Zinsen machen. Große Chancen werden sich auftun, aber man muss sie abwarten können.


    Vorstellung der Anlagefavoriten für den kommenden Monat:


    Unter den 5 Topwerten (E.ON, Salzgitter, Stada, Bundesanleihe 10 Jahre) im Depot von Hr. Schäfer wurde als Toptitel Gold Fields besprochen.


    Gold wird in den kommenden Jahren eine gewichtige Rolle spielen. Gold Fields verfügt über 80 Mio. Unzen Reserven und weitere Ressourcen von 190 Mio. Unzen. Die Abhängigkeit von Südafrika schwindet, 37 Prozent der Ressourcen liegen in Ghana, 24 Prozent in Australien. Das Unternehmen ist schuldenfrei und hat 750 Mio. US-Dollar Bares sowie fast nur große, rentable Minen. Neue Minen erschließt es nur, wenn die Reserven 2 Mio. Unzen betragen. Das Gold verkauft Gold Fields kaum noch auf Termin, was den Gewinnhebel erhöht. Der russische Nickelkonzern Norilsk hat 20 Prozent an Gold Fields erworben. Das könnte die Tür zu russischen Goldfeldern öffnen.

  • July 2 - Gold $398.20 up $2.40 – Silver $5.99 up 6 cents


    See Spot Run!


    The class of those who have the ability to think their own thoughts is separated by an unbridgeable gulf from the class of those who cannot...Ludwig Von Mises


    GO GATA!!!!


    Today is one of those rare days when I wish I did not have to do a MIDAS commentary because all you are going to get is the same ole rehash about how corrupt and non-functional the US markets have become. They are nothing more than a combination of The Matrix and Stepford Wives with Wall Street and Washington coming up with market mantras and manipulations that have little to do with reality. Their basic mantra is PRICE ACTION MAKES MARKET COMMENTARY. The market managers hold down gold and prop up the DOW to facilitate investors' perceptions and influence their market making decisions, regardless of what the underlying, true fundamentals are.


    This morning’s jobs report was horrendous and confirms the recent sharp downturn in the US economic numbers:


    08:30 May non-farm payrolls revised to 235K from +248K; May unemployment rate unch. at 5.6%
    * * * * *
    08:30 June unemployment rate 5.6% vs. consensus 5.6%; non-farm payrolls +112K vs. consensus +250K
    * * * * *
    08:30 June average hourly earnings reported 0.1% vs. consensus 0.3%
    June average weekly hours reported 33.6 vs. consensus 33.8.
    * * * * *


    Once again we see increasing evidence the typical American consumer is squeezed. Inflation is going way up, jobs are hard to find and income is not keeping pace with inflation. It is more evidence the effects of the tax cuts and government economic stimulus are wearing off and the big picture, negative macroeconomic factors are beginning to kick in and take their toll on the American scene.


    What could be more bullish for gold than a weakening US economy and US dollar, along with increasing inflation while our interest rates are at historic lows? This increasingly negative interest rate scenario is screamingly gold bullish which is exactly why the Orwellians continue to cap the price. They don’t want an unsuspecting public to know the truth as a suppressed gold price takes away the alarm barometer from the average investor. "Look, no real problems," says the Working Group On Financial Markets, "see how tame gold is." The likes of the Larry Kudlows were yapping like that all morning.


    This routine has become so obvious it is now almost juvenile - at the See Spot Run level. Only the nitwit retards in the mainstream gold world fail to deal with this blatant manipulation farce.


    Just back from a breakfast at the Highland Park Pharmacy, a drug store with a 50’s type soda jerk counter, stools and all – with the old type waffle irons etc., a real throwback – cheap food and fast service – a real treat. Had to get out of here. Couldn’t stand the aggravation of watching our corrupt powers set the prices for the day. Besides, there was no point watching gold long after the opening because the price was not going to better the first half hour/hour opening high anyway – AND IT DIDN’T.


    OK, back to work. The bad news is the manipulation scenario I am reporting on IS this disgusting. The good news is the folks rigging the market have blown it so egregiously, gone so completely out of control, the prices of gold and silver are going to go berserk as their nefarious shenanigans go completely awry.


    For some time now MIDAS has been stating the economy is nowhere near as strong as the pundits claim and inflation is far worse. That is now becoming clear to many in the mainstream investment world, even with the puffed up numbers put out by the Bush Administration. Hiding the truth these days has become harder and harder to do. The Fed and the administration have backed themselves into a corner with their market manipulations and have run out of ways to maneuver. Inflation is real, but if they raise rates to combat inflation, an already fragile economy goes tapioca.


    The Bush Administration and the Fed are in deep trouble when it comes to dealing with our economy, thanks to the last 8 years of managing markets. What goes around, comes around.


    To give you an idea of how managed gold is at the moment, one only need look at a few charts.


    Just a few days ago, the concern was US interest rates were going to soar, the dollar to rally sharply and gold to be crushed. Supposedly, this was why gold cratered after breaching $400 on the upside on Monday. But, LOOK:


    Runaway September bonds
    http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/TR/94


    Swooning September dollar
    http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/US/94


    Soaring September euro
    http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/ED/94


    Bonds and the euro have surged to the upside and broken out sharply in that direction. The dollar has broken down hard out of a heavy congestion period, which is now a substantial top formation.


    Gold? Forget about it:


    Arrested August gold
    http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/84


    Gold was not allowed to close above its 200-day moving average ($399.50 basis August) or $400, even though it blew through both points TWICE during the week.


    Even with all the outside markets going for it, the GOLD POLICE said Thou Shalt Not Pass Go! And that was that.


    For those who STILL think a weak dollar is the key to the gold price (can there be anyone left?), take a gander at what the dollar did early on today and compare it to the gold response. Gold rallied a piddly $2 and change on THIS:


    Can you imagine if the dollar had rallied that much how low gold would have plunged this morning?

  • To get a further grip on how flagrant the gold price rigging is these past weeks, note what Houston’s Dan Norcini had to say this early in the day:


    Hey Bill and Mike:
    Looks like our "friends" don't want gold over $400 do they?


    Same old modus operandi Cap it on the dollar down days and smash it on the dollar up days.


    Mike B's premise looks to be holding true. These guys are mounting a fierce assault at the DIVG level near the mid 340's.


    A bit of historical reference - The euro was at 1.23040 back on April 1 when gold was sitting at $430. The Euro is bumping right up against that same level this morning and gold is fully $30+ lower than it was back on April 1. If gold were trading in lockstep with the dollar it would be sitting at $425 or better this morning. That is how effective the price capping scheme has been. Gold in Euro terms looks absymal. It is trading near the same levels it was in January 2002. Think about that again. Europeans who had bought gold at that time due to concerns over geopolitical developments, et al., have made ZERO return on gold. Amazing.
    Best,
    Dan
    The gold open interest only rose 813 contracts to 220,064, while the silver open interest fell a whopping 5703 contracts to 83,430.


    Speaking of amazing. Here we have these incredible silver fundamentals and specs are very long. The big decrease was in the July contract. Word is one firm took delivery of about 4200 contracts which is roughly equivalent to the 21 million ounces which changed categories in the Comex warehouses this week.


    For the week:


    *the euro rose 1.68
    *the dollar fell 1.04
    *bonds rose 2 3/32


    *and gold - it fell $4.50 with every technical in the world going for it!


    Makes sense right? Fits in perfectly with how the pundits continually call the gold market right?


    As you can tell, time for a relaxing three day holiday for me.


    CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH


    The DOW went into a plodding retreat early, down about 50, and then remained at that level all session long, closing at 10,282, down 51.


    The Sep euro closed at 123.09 and the dollar finished at 88.18.


    More on the pivotal jobs number:
    U.S. job growth slows to 112,000 in June By Rex Nutting
    WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - Job growth in the United States slowed in June after three months of robust hiring, the Labor Department estimated Friday. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 112,000 in June, less than half the 244,000 expected by Wall Street economists surveyed by CBS MarketWatch. Employment fell by 11,000 in the manufacturing sector after four months of growth. The unemployment rate remained at 5.6 percent as expected. Average hourly wages rose by 2 cents to $15.65, a 0.1 percent increase, less than the 0.3 percent expected. Payroll growth in April and May was revised lower by a cumulative 37,000. The average workweek fell by two tenths of an hour to 33.6 hours. Total hours worked in the economy dropped 0.6 percent.


    The US factory number was disappointing also:


    :00 May Factory Orders reported -0.3% vs. consensus (0.7%)
    Prior reading was (1.7%). Ex-transportation, May orders +0.2%.


    GATA’s Mike Bolser:


    Hi Bill:
    The DOW failed to respond to a huge repo condition yesterday and it may have been due to the currency market focus of the Fed's primary dealers in and around the FOMC rate hike. Their main objective was likely to prop the dollar at all costs and BTW to hammer gold as well. The DOW perhaps was secondary.


    Today Friday July 2nd 2004, the Fed added $7.5 Billion in tomos and that action dropped the repo pool to $44.77 Billion during thin securities trading before the holiday. The DOW at this hour (11AM) is weak.


    A reader called yesterday to say the main financial battle today is one of propaganda vs. reality. Do you accept that the unbacked paper regime can be made infinite or do you accept that there are limits to its life?


    With the former, one continues to play by Wall Street's self-serving rules (For example, the anti-long COMEX commodities "rules"), slavishly follows their carefully constructed propaganda, builds even more debt, further reduces savings and places ever more portfolio weight on speculative paper-based ventures. In the latter belief mechanism, followers shed all debt, reduce exposure to paper speculation, obtain real, durable assets- especially precious metals and energy (Small natural gas debt-free firms). The weight of history is clearly on the side of those who move to real assets as inflation ravages the nation's paper wealth. expecting regulators to recognize inflation is naive.


    The monetary authorities will NEVER admit that inflation has arrived any more than a pedophile can admit their horrific crimes....they know what awaits them if they break down and tell the truth, asking for mercy. They must keep the paper-based propaganda supported game going at any cost, leafleting the world if necessary.


    Haiti's Baby Doc Duvallier used to drive through Port-au-Prince in his aging black Cadillac, throwing $50 bills from the trunk, later asserting that this act proved he was a "generous" benefactor to his people. Never mind that it was all a show for the cameras as Haiti's vast majority never saw a penny.


    On a far grander scale, Alan Greenspan and his minions issue their repos, collateralized debt obligations, government bonds and mortgage backed pieces of colored paper to a rapacious mob of Wall Street acolytes.


    It is a distinction with hardly a difference.
    Mike


    Stunning long-term Federal Reserve Note Versus Gold Chart:


    http://www.moneyfiles.org/goldvsfed.gif


    From The King Report:


    Our friend Paul notes than in Wednesday’s WSJ on page C-17 a Vickers analyst states insider selling has surged back to a mind-addling 20-1 to buying. Months ago the ratio hit 28 to 1. The Vickers analyst notes that during protracted insider selling trends, insiders run out of stock and must reload. The last time this reloading of intense selling occurred was September, 1987. "Let’s be careful out there."…


    Today is the employment report. As we wrote yesterday, a great number will have only an ephemeral effect. A soft number will contribute to the new economic ebbing perception. As we related, the data warrants a soft number, but political expediency has manufactured stronger than warranted numbers recently. However, now that the BLS’s CES Birth/Death Rate of small business has been exposed by us a very few others, the BLS is likely to look elsewhere to boost the number. We are stunned that after tracking, talking and writing about the Plug/Bias/now named the B/D Rate since Al Sindlinger put us onto it about a decade and a half ago, the investment world over the past two months has discovered it. Notable economists that have been forecasting, analyzing and waxing about the employment report for years did not know about it. Consider 2004 a historic year in economic and financial history – it is the year that a critical massive of market denizens realized and publicly admitted that government economic data is serious flawed. The inflation and employment numbers so egregiously diverged from reality that numerous people had the epiphany about government data deception.


    -END-


    Perhaps of interest:


    Bill Murphy of GATA speaks his mind that the place to be is in Gold and why the bad guys will not win.


    Bill Murphy, the Commander-In-Chief of The Gold Army; the Chairman of GATA (Gold Anti Trust Action Committee);


    For other live interviews, presentations and reports go to http://www.smartstox.com
    The Plunge Protection Team had some week last week holding up the US stock market. From Jesse:


    If you have had the feeling that you are trading against computer programs backed by the biggest pockets in the world generating the bulk of the trades on the NYSE, you might be right.


    Read the report as well as the press release. It’s interesting.


    NYSE Program Trading announced today for the period June 21-25 reached a record 70.5%.


    http://www.nyse.com/press/1088675982795.html


    Sure is a lot of trading for 'Agency'


    http://www.nyse.com/pdfs/pt070104.pdf
    Sure is a lot of trading for 'Agency'


    -END-


    Goldman Sachs dwarfs everyone else. Big surprise, eh!?!?


    Jesse goes on to note:


    Notice distribution of trades OFF the NYSE?


    Why would you do that if you are an NYSE member? Not enough liquidity on the NYSE? Or just keep the markets 'in synch?'


    I like the implications of Mr. Agency and the look that the broker/banks are taking the other side of his/its trades.


    More questions than answers but its an interesting report. The NYSE should be prepared to give some clarifications given the huge amount of trades being generated by Mr. Agency…..


    15 firms generated about 68% of NYSE volume as program trades and of those, about half were for themselves and half were for 'Agency'


    Who or what is Agency? Agency is cranking almost 30% of total NYSE volume.


    The Fed acts as an agent in the Custodial accounts, for example. Who do these bank/brokers represent as an Agent, or who is this Agent representing? More questions than answers, but a topic of importance no doubt given the huge impact on the markets.


    -END-

  • In contrast to their recent behavior the gold shares performed admirably this afternoon. The XAU rose 1.88 to 87.27, while the HUI gained 4.89 to 191.36. Golden Star Resources, which has been beat up lately by arbitrageurs over GSS’s bid for Iamgold, led the way, gaining 36 cents (8%) to $4.82.


    The HUI looks as if it is ready to break out to the upside from a defined pennant formation. A breach of the 195 area ought to do it, and should send this index to much higher levels.


    HUI
    http://bigcharts.marketwatch.c…&o_symb=hui&freq=1&time=8


    Just when you think the gold fundamentals can’t get better, they do. Then again, they have been at the "10+++" level for some time. Of course, as we saw today, in the very short-term they are meaningless, as are the technicals. All that matters is how much the strong physical market eats into whatever gold supply the heinous Gold Cartel can throw at us.


    In the short-term gold and silver could do anything. After this week, how can anyone use normal analysis to make any sort of reasoned prediction? Yet, with the overall financial market scene SO conducive to much higher gold prices and getting more that way each passing month, I can’t see both precious metals staying down here much longer. The cabal rats have backed themselves into a corner with less and less room to maneuver.


    Those with patience and an understanding of the big picture are going to make a fortune as the second half of this year rolls on. Gold, silver and the shares remain THE historic investment opportunity of a lifetime.


    GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!


    MIDAS

  • Gruezi,


    am 2.Juli gab es einen Mords-Spike bei Gold und Dollar kurz vor neun Uhr NY Time. Gold sprang in Sekunden um 8 Dollar nach oben, der Dollar stürzte im gleichen Moment ziemlich ab.


    Was war da los? Wer hat einen großen Haufen Dollar gegen Gold getauscht? Weiß jemand was?


    Nur eine Vermutung: China hält bekanntlich riesige Dollarreserven und hat die amreikanische Wirtschaft in der Hand: schmeißen die alle Dollars auf den Markt und tauschen gegen Gold, ist Amerika geliefert.
    Wie ich die Chinesen aus persönlicher Erfahrung kenne, bauten die solche Dollarpositionen bewusst strategisch auf, um ihre militärische Ohnmacht gegen die USA mit strategischer Wirtschaftsmacht zu kompensieren.


    Läuft da was im Hintergrund? Am 30.6. die US-Ankündigung sieben (!) US-Flugzeugträger-Kampfgruppen bis Ende Juli ins chinesische Meer zu schicken für eine "Übung". So viele Flugzeugträger waren seit dem zweiten Weltkrieg nicht mehr an einer gemeinsamen Operation beteiligt. Was wollen die da? Taiwan? Korea? Dazu die massive Mobilmachung der US-Reservisten, angeblich für den Irak.


    Am 1. Juli Massendemonstration in Hongkong gegen die chin. Regierung.


    Am 2. Juli der Spike... war das sozusagen ein ökonomischer Raketentest der Rotchinesen?


    Grüßle,


    Schwarzwaldelfe

  • ...die Ursache waren die grottenschlechten US-Arbeitsmarktdaten, welche um 14.30 MEZ veröffentlicht wurden.
    Mit dem Arbeitsmarkt steht und fällt der Konsum im hochverschuldeten Wirtschaftswunderland. Das ein schlechter Arbeitsmarkt eine Kettenreaktion auslösen kann, wissen einige Marktteilnehmer. Deshalb die kleine Kaufpanik.

  • Wirklich interessant,das mit der Bushkrieger-Armada!
    Ich denk aber auch eher,das es dabei nicht um Taiwan geht,sondern um ein gezieltes
    Abschreckungsmanöver....."wenn ihr (China) eure Dollarreserven anfangt zu verscherbeln,
    hauen wir euch eins auf die Mütze...."
    Mal sehen,wiedie Reaktionen aus Bejing ausfallen... 8o

  • Na da wollen wir mal hoffen, dass es bei einer Übung bleibt...


    Bin gespannt, wie sich die weiteren Meldungen diesbezüglich entwickeln!


    Nugget 49fine ?(

  • Liebe Leut,


    da bleibt einem die Luft weg, es kommen immer neue Meldungen dazu: SUMMER PULSE 2004 findet an 5 Schauplätzen statt: es gibt eine Großübung mit allen südamerikanischen Staaten, eine Übung in Marokko mit den europäischen Nato-Partnern mit Flugzeugträgern, Schiffen, Luft- und Landstreitkräften; es gibt eine Großübung in der arabischen See mit Flugzeugträgern, es gibt die sieben Flugzeugträger-Gruppen vor China und es gibt eine Großübung mit einer extra nach Südkorea verlegten Staffel Tarnkappen-Bomber.


    Hier gibt es einen Thread und Linksammlung dazu (Meldungen im Proph-Forum gepostet, wo Nachrichten aus aller Welt zusammenkommen, um sie mit den Prophs abzugleichen):


    http://f23.parsimony.net/forum53379/messages/115902.htm




    Dazu eine AP-Meldung, nachdem die Bush-Admisnistration gerade Richtlinien ausarbeitet, nach denen die November Wahl wegen eines Terroranschlag ausgesetzt werden kann:


    keine US-Wahlen im November "wegen Terrorismus"
    [ Börse & Wirtschaft: Elliott-Wellen-Forum ]
    Geschrieben von Amanito am 06. Juli 2004 14:56:41:


    Voting official seeks process for canceling Election Day over terrorism


    By: ERICA WERNER - Associated Press


    WASHINGTON -- The government needs to establish guidelines for canceling or rescheduling elections if terrorists strike the United States again, says the chairman of a new federal voting commission.


    Such guidelines do not currently exist, said DeForest B. Soaries, head of the voting panel.


    Soaries was appointed to the federal Election Assistance Commission last year by President Bush. Soaries said he wrote to National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice and Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge in April to raise the concerns.


    "I am still awaiting their response," he said. "Thus far we have not begun any meaningful discussion." Spokesmen for Rice and Ridge did not immediately respond to requests for comment.


    Soaries noted that Sept. 11, 2001, fell on Election Day in New York City -- and he said officials there had no rules to follow in making the decision to cancel the election and hold it later.


    Events in Spain, where a terrorist attack shortly before the March election possibly influenced its outcome, show the need for a process to deal with terrorists threatening or interrupting the Nov. 2 presidential election in America, he said.


    "Look at the possibilities. If the federal government were to cancel an election or suspend an election, it has tremendous political implications. If the federal government chose not to suspend an election it has political implications," said Soaries, a Republican and former secretary of state of New Jersey.


    "Who makes the call, under what circumstances is the call made, what are the constitutional implications?" he said. "I think we have to err on the side of transparency to protect the voting rights of the country."


    Soaries said his bipartisan, four-member commission might make a recommendation to Congress about setting up guidelies.


    "I'm hopeful that there are some proposals already being floated. If there are, we're not aware of them. If there are not, we will probably try to put one on the table," he said.


    Soaries also said he's met with a former New York state elections director to discuss how officials there handled the Sept. 11 attacks from the perspective of election administration. He said the commission is getting information from New York documenting the process used there.


    "The states control elections, but on the national scale where every state has its own election laws and its own election chief, who's in charge?" he said.


    Soaries also said he wants to know what federal officials are doing to increase security on Election Day. He said security officials must take care not to allow heightened security measures to intimidate minority voters, but that local and state election officials he's talked to have not been told what measures to expect.


    "There's got to be communication," he said, "between law enforcement and election officials in preparation for November."




    http://www.nctimes.com/article…n2004/21_17_566_25_04.txt


    Thread dazu:


    http://f17.parsimony.net/forum30434/messages/281463.htm

  • Gruezi,
    das mit der großen Weltverschwörung ist definitiv nicht mein Trip und ist auch nicht Thema. Hier wurden lediglich offizielle Nachrichten gepostet und verlinkt und ein paar Kommentare dazu gelinkt, über die sich jeder selbst seine Meinung bilden kann.


    Sobald Nachrichten im Zusammenhang dargestellt werden, mit dem Totschlagstichwort "Aha, Wekltverschwörung" zu kommen, ist wenig differenziert und schlechter Stil.


    Dass die US-Manöver Verlauf brauchen hat niemand in Frage gestellt. Dass die US-Marine ihre Vorbereitungen nicht in unserem Forum veröffentlich hat, spricht nicht gegen sie. Dass die Vorbereitungen von Manöver und Ernstfall nicht arg unterschiedlich sind, liegt auf der Hand.


    Summer Pulse 2004 ist keine Verschwörungstheorie, sondern eine Übung der US-Militärs mit Verbündeten in Europa, Asien und Südamerika für den "Globalen Krieg". Das sagen die selber so (s. Links).


    Wo, bitte, ist hier eine Verschwörung?

Schriftgröße:  A A A A A