Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

http://www.weblinks247.com/indexes/idx24_hui_en_2.gif

Huiiiiiii!

..............530... GO... THIS WEEK..... GO..GOLD...GO...RIDE NOW !

Es scheint wieder einen dieser Freitag abend Schlußspurts zu geben. Schon stark wie die Tagescharts aussehen.

Puh, langsam wirds unheimlich. Damit hätte ich nicht gerechnet. Aus meine Papiersilber bin ich heute jedenfalls fast komplett raus....

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/gold/t24_au_en_usoz_2.gif]

[Blockierte Grafik: http://kitconet.com/charts/metals/silver/t24_ag_en_usoz_2.gif]

Also, ich überlege mir bei einem kleinem Rücksetzer Silber-Zertifikate und - OS nachzukaufen.

Ich bin mir ziemlich sicher, daß viele Anleger ungeduldig auf eine Chance warten, (physisch) in den Markt einzusteigen. Diese Woche haben mich meine Eltern (sehr, sehr konservativ, was Geldanlage angeht) angerufen und wir sind gemeinsam Gold kaufen gegangen. Gestern haben mich zwei Arbeitskollegen, um Adressen gebeten, wo man Gold kaufen kann. Heute hat einer nach einer website gefragt, wo er sich informieren kann. Mein Chef, den ich monatelang mit dem thema in den Ohren gelegen hat, hat letzte Woche gekauft. Würde mich nicht wundern, wenn er nachkaufen würde. Die Medienberichterstattung steigt, die Besucherzahlen in den Foren auch.

Will sagen, "fresh money" ist von Privatanlegerseite da.

Ret´s rock next week again

Jungs , zum Thema Hausfrauenrally

Bin heute zur Raiffeisen Bank,direkt bei mir gegenüber,der Mann in der Kasse sitzt seit 25 Jahren mit mir am gleichen Stammtisch.Ich rein mit 5 x 100gr Barren.Der wollte mein Gold ankaufen,dazu sollte es nach München geschickt und dort geprüft werden,bei OK wäre das Geld in der nächsten Woche meinem Konto gut geschrieben worden.Die Bank hat ein Einzugsgebiet von 20000 Menschen.Das mus man sich mal vorstellen! Auf meine Frage,ob die Bank denn keine Goldgeschäfte mache,sagte er mir,nur ganz selten geht dort ein Krügerrand über den Tresen

Ich raus,in die Kreisstadt zur Hauptstelle der Sparkasse.Da geht man über eine Treppe in den Vorraum des Tresors.Hauptkasse im Tresor!

Dort fragte ich wie den der Ankaufspreis für Gold sei;er antwortete mir 1380€ pro Barren,daraufhin sagte ich unter 1400€ wolle ich Sie nicht verkaufen,er wieder zum Monitor und reingeschaut,dann gab er mir anstandslos 1400€.Ich konnte heute mit dem Hauptkassierer Handeln,stellt euch das doch einmal vor!

Grüsse

kalle,der noch lange nicht an eine Hausfrauenrally glaubt

What a day! Gold firmed up in Asia last evening and kept on going until we approached the Comex opening. Naturally, the boys planned to take it down and did. Gold went from up $6 when I woke up to around $1.50 higher. However, as has been the case since Gold Rush 21, the shorts were handed their lunch on the dip. Gold went back up, then exploded.

As we have seen so often the past four months, the buyers were waiting for The Gold Cartel forces to do what they did. The new buyers competed with shorts who are trying to cover. Once gold was comfortably through its Fixes of $524.75 and $525.50, it took off like a ROCKET, taking out $530 for a brief period of time, up over $11 on the day.

Seven years ago GATA figured out the gold market was being managed and we set out to do something about it, which culminated to-date with our historic conference in Dawson City in the Yukon Territory on August 8th and 9th. Since then gold has rallied as much as $94 (earlier today), while the dollar has risen from 87 to 91 and the price of oil has dropped from $68 per barrel to $60.

There is no doubt in my mind this conference was a significant factor in changing the gold world for the next decade. Over the past few weeks I have been pounding away on this theme; to do what I could to explain why the price of gold was doing what it was and where I thought it might go as a result of the aftermath of that conference.

Thus far I have spent much of that focus on the Russians and have brought to your attention why several times the past couple of weeks. There is one more thing which also makes sense and fits with the MIDAS technical analysis of the market. There are a number of Café members who believe The Gold Cartel monitors where GATA is coming from and read the MIDAS commentary. I have no idea if this is so, but it is not far-fetched. Let us say it is so.

If you were The Gold Cartel, you know what the Russian Central Bank said about GATA in June of 2004. Then you see Andrey Bykov actually show up at a GATA gold conference in the middle of nowhere. You would surely conclude that Mr. Bykov did not go all the way to Dawson City for a glamorous vacation. He was there for a specific reason … to learn more about what the GATA camp had to say, verify our credibility as a group, and to present feedback to Putin and other Russians involved in their major financial decision making processes. Remember, the chairman of the Moscow Norodny Bank of London translated Oleg V. Mozhaiskov's speech from Russian into English for GATA. Why would he do that for us non-mainstream folks who the US financial market press will not even admit exists?

The Gold Cartel knows better than anyone what they have done and of the precarious supply/demand situation in the gold market. They KNOW there is no room for a major central bank buyer(s) to enter the scene. They fully realize the Russians, the world’s second largest gold producer, have every reason to want the gold price much higher. Once Bykov actually showed in Dawson City, the Gold Cartel had to go, "Uh-Oh, our jig is up!" They would have to know they could not hold down the price much longer … which is why (I believe) the price broke the $6 Rule to the upside two days after the conference concluded and has not looked back ever since.

The Gold Cartel is still there, but it seems to me some of their players are trying to cover, or at least some of those who used to trade with them are doing so. This is why the open interest is not expanding like it used to on sharp price rallies. Some other traditional shorts are also trying to cover their positions … run for the hills.

Clearly, some major new buyers are accumulating what they can in an orderly manner, which is why the physical market is so strong. However, the Comex itself is trading completely differently (and has for four months), as dips are bought and corrections are brief … as the new buyers compete with the increasingly nervous shorts for the long positions some funds are pitching or for other Gold Cartel sales.

As mentioned for quite some time now and specifically again yesterday, the problem for The Gold Cartel, and other major shorts, is they cannot cover a meaningful amount of physical gold without driving the price to the moon. They are trapped. Stay tuned.

What does this gold move mean? Is it signaling greater inflation, a coming financial market disaster, a sharp fall in the dollar? Probably all of them. However, that is not why gold is doing what it is at the moment. You could have said the same thing for years. It has to be something else. Look at today. Oil: down sharply. Dollar: flat. Stock Market: up. Crises? … none.

Gold has rallied as much as $94 since Gold Rush 21 because The Gold Cartel scheme was conclusively exposed to the official sector (and other major buyers). As a result, their price-rigging scheme is ending. Some of the biggest players in the world are acting on what GATA knows and they have the bucks to move the market. Physical market buying is overpowering The Gold Cartel’s ability to hold the price down. To make matters worse for the shorts, as mentioned last night (for weeks for that matter), some of those who have lent their gold out must be trying to get it back and it is very hard to do.

One other point to make on gold lenders who want their gold back. Many in our camp believe those who borrowed their gold will be allowed to settle up in cash, rather than with physical. No doubt that is true in some cases. A veteran Café member knows the CEO of one of The Gold Cartel bullion banks who told him as such. However, that will not be the case with all the borrowers.

Now that gold is on a roll, it is fashionable to own the stuff. Certain central banks are not going to want to be seen as having dumped their gold. They will want it on their books. Whereas they might not have cared years ago, times are changing. It will only take a few lenders to ask for their gold back to create a nightmare for The Gold Cartel. Some of that appears to be occurring already with more to come.

Ah good. The gold open interest just came out … more confirmation of what I wrote early this morning. It FELL 1905 contracts to 340,860 on a $5 move up in the gold price. Gold has now risen $75 per ounce with its open interest falling more than 30,000 contracts off of its old high this year. That is ASTOUNDING! More evidence the trapped shorts are doing everything they can to cover their positions.

(P.S. on the this open interest stuff: veteran Café members will recall many years ago when the gold open interest rose 77,000 contracts over a few weeks on a $7 gold rally. At the time the gold open interest was only around 220,000 contracts. This will give newcomer Café members some idea why what is going on now is such a big deal and how the market has changed so dramatically.)

The COT numbers were just released. The most important aspect of them was the commercials REDUCED their shorts by 8705 contracts as of the close on Tuesday … more confirmation certain shorts do not want to be that way anymore.

Today was the first sign we have seen of actual panic short-covering … when gold approached $530, and then took it out. Could this be some "exhaustion buying?" Yes, we have had quite a run here. A correction from today’s high could be in the cards. Yet, if we get one, don’t think it will last long. At the same time, gold could easily open $20 higher from here on Monday. The gold shorts are in desperate shape. The handwriting is on the wall for MUCH higher gold prices. The size of the gold short position (thanks to The Gold Cartel) vis-à-vis the market fundamentals must be unprecedented. Thus, analyzing the very short-term from here, and after our ROCKET ride this week, seems serendipitous.

Gold sold off $4 off its highs and within the parameters of The Gold Cartel’s $6 Rule by the close. Incredible how we have seen this year after year. Therefore, it seems this was more of an organized takedown to calm down GOLD FEVER, than an exhaustion move. Especially eyeing how silver traded, which closed where it was trading almost the entire session, after a brief early sell-off and another brief spike up to $9.04.

The Comex silver floor loves the action. As we have noted, silver keeps moving up without the slightest bit of excitement. At some point in the near future, it will explode … and most likely do so when the market players least expect it to.

The silver open interest rose 305 contracts to 139,628.

Weist du .....Leute die soviel Wrte darüber verlieren....was man in 3 einfache Sätze packen kann......aber was soll`s.

cu DL

(MIDAS: The following was an email sent by Adrian to a fellow Cafe member. It had me enthralled and I figured it would you too.)
This is fascinating and like solving a great mystery. And just like great mysteries you have to look at ALL the clues. If you look at the gold chart alone it seems to be saying that a correction back to $480 is likely. Gold is in a strong upleg and transistioning into Phase 2 so the upleg will be supported by the 50DMA and not the 200 DMA

The HUI has only just broken out of its box formation of 2 yr duration or if you prefer broken above the neckline of an inverse head & shoulders of 1 year duration. If gold is going to correct significantly from here then it would mean that the shares will have missed out on reacting to a $95 move in the gold price. I just don’t find that plausible. It is possible that the gold price does correct and the shares take off and show a delayed upleg but that would be a most unusual event because the gold price typically drives sentiment in the shares. In a few years time when we get the final blow-offf when gold is $ xxxx punters might drive stocks up even with a big fall in the gold price but we don’t have ANY froth in the gold shares right now that could that type of event happen. The CEF fund has only 1.2% premium to the underlying assets. In major uplegs that goes to 25%-30%.

Adam Hamilton has just put out a piece which says that this move up in the gold shares will be massive. I agree with him. The ONLY way I can see that happening is if gold either keeps on going or stabilizes above $520 for a while letting the 50DMA catch up and then accelerating up toward $600. I can not envisage a scenario where a $95 up move didn’t excite investors, a move into uncharted 24 year high territory didn’t excite investors, a break above a historic psychological number didn’t excite investors, but a gold correction back to $480 will make them pile in to mining shares. It just doesn’t jive.

This move up in gold has been amazing. I keep remarking about an Artic Ice-Breaker. Despite the move up of $95 there have been no wild moves. It has been orderly and unexcited. Resistance has just been sliced through with little fanfare or volatility. I believe the excitement is yet to come.

The next clue is the COT. The OI has been GOING DOWN on big gold up moves. The significance of this can not be under-estimated. The Shorts are feeling too much pain. They are getting margin calls they are starting to cover. Notice however that the increase in the margin requirements on Nov 28 did not affect the longs. They didn’t flinch. They have plenty of money and want delivery. Another clue to that was the LARGE deliveries that occurred in November which is NOT a delivery month and this trend is continuing into Dec but the bulls are leaving the bullion on the exchange to continue their accumulation. We have NEVER seen before the shorts cover on an up move in this 4 year bull market.

Then there is sentiment. Many people are like you they are concerned about a correction. That is hardly a bearish sign.

The subtle change that has occurred is that the gold bull market has become global. If physical markets become more dominant than the COMEX which is already the case for India and now Japan then who cares about the technicals of Comex? Gold passed the multi-year resistance of 350 euros and is now 445 euros. Conventional market wisdom said it should have corrected, it then should have corrected when it passed 400 euros but it didn’t. This is what happens when the fundamentals of supply and demand kick in. Take a look at Natural Gas. Earlier this year it passed a multi-decade high of $10 and was stretched 25% above its 50 DMA. It HAD to correct just like gold HAS to correct right now……………

For three months it wasn’t even close enough to its 50 DMA to smell it let alone touch it. There has just been a quick correction to the 50 DMA and it is off on a mission to the moon again. Correction to the 200 DMA? Sure, but I wouldn’t put any money on that until at least the spring. This is a market driven by the fundamentals. There is a shortage of natural gas…but it hasn’t been in deficit for 10 years like gold or silver

The correction didn’t come for another 2 months after hitting the $10 mark and reached $15 …50% higher. If gold were to do the same it wouldn’t correct before $750. That is not to say that is what will happen but just to show you with a real example from today that IT CAN.

We are in uncharted territory. No one seems to have grasped the significance of $500. It is not like $400 or $300. It is the barrier that has not been significantly surpassed for 24 years. And it was sliced through like it didn’t even exist. This market in my open has SUDDENLY flipped from being about paper speculation and playing a trend channel to a physical market where demand is greater than supply AND some crooks have sold short more gold than exists in the world. In the pipe-trend following paper speculation world you need to be worried about corrections and interim bottoms and tops because that’s how you make money. When it becomes a huge demand that can’t be met by shrinking supply market the major concern is whether you are on board or not. I doubt anyone was too concerned about corrections when the London Gold Pool collapsed. The cartel running out of physical to continue their manipulation is the same thing.
I have said that this move will KNOCK THE DUST OFF YOUR MONITOR. I believe it will suddenly behave like oil or nat gas because supply and demand are suddenly all that matter. The Asian women are not content to hang a pendant around their necks with a JPMorganChase derivative contract stapled to it, it just doesn’t look quite as pretty!

This is what I see when I look at all the clues that are available to us. Am I right? That’s for you to decide, but its where my money is.

Anyways, as it stands the Gold Cartel looks like it is losing big money with its COMEX trading. I don’t think their OTC trading is far from what you are looking at above. I thought the above chart would provide a good visual graphic for what must have happen with the capital accounts of the Gold Cartel since 1994 so I am passing it along to you. Clearly it is just not as much fun for the big guys as it used to be.

Mark J. Lundeen

However, Gold and Silver continued their remarkable rally right into the end of the week. Gold soared above 530.00, a level not seen since the early 1980’s. The Japanese Yen, on the other hand, fell to its lowest level against the U.S. Dollar in over two years last week. Yet neither the Swiss Franc nor the Euro currency matched it, producing yet another case of Intermarket bullish divergence. In the case of Gold and Silver, the new high on Friday may relate to the fact that Mars turns direct this weekend, and Friday was the last day in which the Moon was in Aries, the sign that is ruled by Mars.
Next week should be very interesting in regards to this “blow-off” in Gold and Silver.

Short-Term and Long-Term Geocosmics:

The “blow-off” dynamics of the Jupiter-Uranus trine aspect of November 27 may be ending any day now, if it hasn’t already for some financial markets. From Jupiter-Uranus (and all its supportive lunar transits through Sagittarius, Aquarius, and Aries), we now move towards the Jupiter-Saturn waxing square signature of December 17, followed by Venus turning retrograde on December 24, and Mars forming its third and final waning square to Saturn on December 28. In other words, the buoyancy of Jupiter in aspect to Mars and Uranus – which is consistent with the idea of massive rallies and irrational exuberance - will give way now to a climate dominated more by the sobering reality (and potential stress) of Saturn. What seemed to defy gravity and logic in the past few weeks becomes constrained (depressed even) by those same dynamics. What goes up must come down. It is the universal law that governs all cyclical patterns, as well as human activity. And for astrologers, this rhythm is understood by the maxim of “As above, so below.”

Long-Term Thoughts:

So what is an investor to do as this year comes to an end, in preparation for not only next year, but for the remainder of this decade? In a nutshell, let me paraphrase some of the conclusions in next year’s Forecast Book: Look for the U.S. stock market to end its current rally by the first quarter of 2006, followed by a 20% decline to the 4-year cycle trough by the end of the year. Look for interest rates to continue to rise into the middle of 2006, at which time it may be an excellent opportunity to lock in higher yields on Treasuries. Look for crude oil to form its 4-year cycle low in mid-2006, followed by another surge up that could see $100.00/barrel. With so many long-term planetary cycles unfolding over the next several months, there will likely be excellent investment opportunities arising in 2006.

http://www.mmacycles.com/artweek.htm

,Etwas für alle zum 4 Advent, in diesen kalten Tagen für uns Männer

Gold May Rise, Matching Longest Rally and Topping 24-Year High
Dec. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Gold may rise for a sixth straight week, matching this year's longest rally, because investors are adding bullion to their portfolios as an alternative to underperforming stocks and bonds, a Bloomberg survey shows.

Fourteen of twenty-six traders, investors and analysts surveyed from Mumbai to Chicago on Dec. 8 and Dec. 9 advised buying gold, which gained 4.6 percent last week and reached a 24- year high of $534.30 an ounce in New York. Seven respondents recommended selling and five were neutral.

Gold is up 21 percent this year, outperforming the Standard & Poor's 500 Index and 10-year Treasuries. The lure of precious metals and commodities such as oil and copper has spurred $15 billion of new investment in funds tracking indexes of raw materials, as investors seek better returns and a hedge against inflation, Barclays Capital said Dec. 2.

``The apparently huge influx of capital into gold and related financial products seems likely to keep prices moving higher,'' said Daniel Vaught, an analyst at A.G. Edwards & Sons in St. Louis.

Gold for February delivery rose $23.20 last week to $530.20 on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Last week's gain was anticipated by the majority of analysts surveyed Dec. 1 to Dec. 2. Bloomberg's survey has forecast the direction of prices accurately in 50 of 85 weeks, or 59 percent of the time. The last time gold rose six straight weeks was from Aug. 26 to Oct. 7, and the most recent seven-week rally was in 2004, from Oct. 15 to Dec. 3.

One Way Street

Hedge funds and other large speculators have more than tripled their net-long positions, or bets prices will gain, in New York gold futures since the end of July to 167,413 contracts as of Dec. 6, government figures show. A record 14.96 million contracts traded on the Comex Dec. 9, the exchange said.

``The psychology of the market is now largely technical,'' said George Gero, a vice president at RBC Capital Markets in New York and a director of the Nymex. ``We have higher volume, higher moving averages and new entries into the gold market. All of that is very bullish.''

Since November 2004, investors have poured $4.1 billion into two gold-backed stocks, StreetTracks Gold Trust and iShares Comex Trust. Demand for gold coins and bars and bullion-backed shares rose 56 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, the World Gold Council said.

``Funds have taken a fancy to gold and it seems as if it will be a one-way street for gold prices for the next few months,'' said Jay Mehta, managing director of Mumbai-based Maximus Commodities. ``$600 will be the next target.''

Outperforming Stocks, Bonds

Gold has outpaced the 3.9 percent gain this year in the S&P 500. Treasuries have returned 1.16 percent this year, including reinvested interest, following gains of 3.50 percent in 2004 and 2.26 percent in 2003, according to Merrill Lynch index data. In the prior three years, returns averaged 10.6 percent.

Holdings of Treasuries by the oil-producing nations in OPEC fell to $54.6 billion in September from $67 billion in January, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Middle East demand for gold rose by 38 percent in the third quarter, the World Gold Council said.

Precious metals are getting a boost from concern that the U.S. has near-record current-account and budget deficits, and on speculation the dollar will end its rally against major currencies.

The U.S. current account, the broadest measure of trade, last year widened to a record $665.9 billion from $530.7 billion. The budget deficit in the U.S. reached a record $412.5 billion in 2004 before narrowing to $318.6 billion this fiscal year.

Gold at $850

``More attention is being paid to'' the deficits, said Paul Walker, chief executive of London-based research company GFMS Ltd. ``Gold could rise to $850 in the next 18 months, as the dollar is likely to come under renewed pressure.''

World investment demand for gold in the six months through December will reach 281 tons, nearly double the total during the same period last year, GFMS said.

Some investors buy gold in times of inflation, which erodes the value of fixed-income assets, such as bonds. Gold reached $873 in 1980, when consumer prices rose 12.5 percent from the previous year.

U.S. consumer prices are rising at a 4.9 percent annual rate this year compared with a 3.7 percent increase in 2004, the government said last month. Core prices, excluding energy and food, are rising at a 2.1 percent annual pace, compared with 2.2 percent.

`The Hedge to Have'

Gold is the ``hedge to have when you're not sure what you're hedging against given the uncertain outlook of U.S. inflation and the U.S. dollar,'' Michael Buchanan, senior global economist for Goldman Sachs, said in the report on Dec. 8.

Some analysts say the inflation risk and gold's rally are overblown because the Federal Reserve has boosted interest rates 12 straight times since May 2004. Fed policy makers probably will raise the benchmark rate for overnight loans to 4.25 percent from 4 percent when they meet Dec. 13, a monthly Bloomberg survey of economists shows.

``All depends on the Fed rate,'' said Ravi Jalan a trader at Jalan Commodities in Delhi. ``Indications are there may be a 25 basis-points hike, and we will see a strong selling set in. This will be a good time to book profit.''

The Fed may increase the rate by another half percentage point by the middle of next year, the Bloomberg survey shows.

Central Bank Sales

Some central banks are halting gold sales or boosting reserves of the precious metal, crimping supply and boosting demand, analysts said.

The world's central banks sold 478 metric tons of gold last year, or 23 percent less than in 2003, London-based precious metals researcher GFMS Ltd. said. Russia said on Nov. 15 it may double its gold reserves after South Africa and Argentina said they may increase holdings.

``You're seeing a shift in attitude from the central banks which have traditionally been sellers of the metal,'' said Frank McGhee, head gold trader at Integrated Brokerage Services LLC in Chicago. ``They're going to add back to their gold reserves. This market could move into substantially higher territory.''