Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

@ mesedor39

Danke für Deinen sachlichen Beitrag, sehe es auch so, der Kurs wird sich sehr wahrscheinlich jetzt erst einmal beruhigen und könnte für eine längere Zeit in der Bandbreite zwischen 490-550 schwanken.

schönes WE
hpoth

By: Bill Murphy, Le Metropole Cafe, Inc., LemetropoleCafe.com

January 6 – Gold $538.80 up $12.70 - Silver $9.08 up 31 cents

"Inaction breeds doubt and fear. Action breeds confidence and courage. If you want to conquer fear, do not sit home and think about it. Go out and get busy."
Dale Carnegie

GO GATA!

No real surprise. Because gold topped out above $530 weeks ago and then tanked, many market participants were thinking the same again. However, markets rarely accommodate "mob" thinking. Yesterday’s vicious market setback; fast, deep and violent … followed by today’s even smarter comeback is CLASSIC super bullish action.

From the Wednesday MIDAS:

"We should have already had our major shakeout on this part of the move. As is, many veteran gold pundits are sitting on the sidelines with their gold trading positions and have their clients out of their share positions. The market surprises are far more likely to be on the upside than on the downside for the time being. Yesterday’s surge was only our "Jacks for Openers."

Today’s gold move up into new high ground further validates GATA’s analysis of the gold market:

- The Gold Cartel has lost control.

- Physical market demand is overpowering the bums – their diminishing central bank supply is just not enough at these price levels.

- We are in the middle of a Commercial Signal Failure. The Gold Cartel and other shorts are panicking to cover whenever they can. Their problem is that there is so much buying out there, the market won’t stay down long enough for them to do any covering in size.

Repeat commentary from the Wednesday MIDAS for emphasis purposes:

The price of gold is going to rocket from these levels because:

There are many thousands of specs still to get long. The open interest numbers confirm as much.
There are tens of thousands of shorts out there who are very exposed to a gold price explosion. A number will want out, or will be forced out. They will be buying on dips, as well as on rallies ... and later at any price.
Most everyone is still gold clueless. Most of Planet Wall Street AND the mainstream gold world are baffled why gold is doing what it is. They just make up reasons why gold is moving up. Not hard to do. PRICE ACTION MAKES MARKET COMMENTARY.
This tells me GATA is right on the money about the shorts panicking in order to extricate themselves from their short positions. How are they doing? Not so good. By my calculations all they covered yesterday was around 40 tonnes, max. The total short position is above 10,000 tonnes. If only 10% of the minimum number of shorts plan to cover, it will take another 25 days like yesterday. 25 TRADING DAYS!

SO, many more shorts are still to get out in the weeks and months to come. Then you have more than 45,000 specs who can get long just to take the open interest only back to where it was with gold $80 lower than here. AND THEN you have central banks trying to buy gold and a surging physical gold market in various locations of the world.

Wait until Planet Wall Street wakes up.

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More from the Wednesday MIDAS:

The Café Sentiment Indicator has moved up, but is still nowhere near what I would expect it to be with the price where it is. I would give it a 6 out of a peak number of 10. There is very little froth in the gold/silver markets, which is very bullish.

I spoke with GATA’s James Turk this morning, and he is inclined to believe that gold is likely to go nuts in the first part of the year … then it may need to correct for some time. Based on the lack of bullishness; relatively low Café Sentiment Indicator; Market Timer bearishness; Planet Wall Street cluelessness; and most importantly, the massive short positions of The Gold Cartel and others, I agree.

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To this day I have not heard of anyone talk about the gold short position outside of the GATA camp. NOT ONE!!!

Gold was hit for $3 in early Asian trading last night and then made a steady comeback. So much so that the AM Fix came in at $529.50. Then came a surge of buying on the Comex which took the PM Fix up to $535.25.

Yesterday MIDAS brought to your attention a little noticed article about the Chinese and their monetary reserves. The FT ran with it late last evening and it caught the attention of many in the gold world:

China signals reserves switch away from dollar
By Geoff Dyer in Shanghai and Andrew Balls in Washington
Published: January 5 2006 20:13 | Last updated: January 6 2006 02:43

China indicated on Thursday it could begin to diversify its rapidly growing foreign exchange reserves away from the US dollar and government bonds – a shift with significant implications for global financial and commodity markets.

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/f39fa…da-8ef9-0000779e2340.html

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The gold press was rife this morning about the Chinese shifting some of their reserves to gold. My take on all of this central bank buying talk and what is going on:

MIDAS has been reporting to Café members for TWO YEARS now of Chinese buying through our STALKER source. I reported nearly five years ago of the Chinese scouring South Africa to secure gold supply. In addition this column has reported on South Korean central bank buying, as well as strong suspicions of other Asian central bank buying by the "little Stalkers."

Most importantly, the price of gold has taken off, and all this talk of central banks buying gold has hit center stage since Gold Rush 21 … after Andrey Bykov, a key economic consultant to President Putin, left the conference. The sequence of events from the Russian Central Bank mentioning GATA in a speech in Moscow (then translating the speech for GATA), to Bykov at the conference, to President Putin having a picture taken of him with a gold bar in his hand, has been well documented here.

Many of these central banks have been buying for some time. The Russians and Chinese are too smart to announce their intentions to the world in advance. They have already done a lot of this buying, or secured supply, most likely through intermediaries. At some time in the future it will show up on their books as gold reserves. Have no idea when.

However, the key here is that hedge funds and other big money are getting the word major central banks are buyers of gold. THAT is the new perception. Thus, they want in because they know the gold market CANNOT accommodate even marginal buying from these sources without taking the price much higher.

In addition, the big money realizes that a number of these same central banks WILL BE buyers on dips. So, they realize the downside for the price of gold is limited.

It gets better. The Gold Cartel and their allies know they are TRAPPED. The crooks and friends know the downside is limited too and are trying to cover as fast as they can. This is why we are seeing these dramatic price surges to the upside.

The gold open interest fell as expected 3177 contracts to 328,916.

The silver open interest also fell … 2232 contracts to 131,542.

This morning I was informed of a rumor of a forced silver liquidation yesterday for some obscure reason – including options … due to something not related to the silver market itself. That makes sense as the magnitude of the silver move down did not make sense.

The reason is that we had "the trade" and Morgan Stanley as buyers the day before with the funds as sellers. Could not understand the depth of the silver sell-off.

While we are seeing a Commercial Signal Failure in gold, the silver shorts are still hanging in there. Only a matter of time before there is a Commercial Signal Failure in silver too. We will observe silver move $1 higher in a single trading session.

Gold makes yet another 25-year high … FEB gold
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/26

March silver
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SV/36

Speaking of one of the crooks. Adrian on Goldman "Hannibal Lecter" Sachs:

Bill,
As of today Jan 6 Goldman Sachs position on TOCOM is 15,029 short and 3611 long. From yesterday they increased their short position 1124 contracts and left their long unchanged. The vicious raid on NY failed to break the market. The OI indicates that the market is not overbought and the local shorts are covering. GS is going against the market dynamics. This is different from their usual approach of attacking an overbought market…commercial signal failure, perhaps?
Cheers
Adrian

GLD added 19 tonnes of gold yesterday. Unusual and bullish for gold demand. Perhaps for some of The Gold Cartel’s short friends who are so desperate to cover.

GLD is not my cup of tea, as it is run by the anti-gold World Gold Council. http://www.goldmoney.com is. The latest from GATA’s James Turk:

This is to let you know that you can now buy silver through GoldMoney.com in the same, convenient, safe and economical way that our customers now purchase gold. Just click the new silver tab on our home page

http://goldmoney.com/en/index.php

The silver our customers purchase is in allocated storage in a specialized bullion vault near London, England, and their silver is insured by Lloyd’s of London. The same governance procedures we apply to gold are also used for silver, so our customers know their metal is safe.

Purchases can be made in US dollars, Canadian dollars, euros and British pounds. Also, existing GoldMoney customers can use their goldgrams to purchase silver.
Regards
James

What makes the GATA analysis of this gold market so obviously correct and right on can be ascertained by observing what the US stock and bond markets are doing. The US stock market is moving up steadily and US interest rates are sanguinely moving lower. There is not the slightest trace of concern about anything regarding inflation or safe-haven stuff in these markets:

March S&P
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SP/36

March 10-year T note
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/NO/36

When it comes to the dollar, IT is starting to swoon. Today it fell .46 to 88.62, while the euro was up .55 to 122.08.

However, look at what the dollar has done the past many months and compare it to what gold has done. The dollar was at 87 during Gold Rush 21. Gold was $436. Gold has clearly moved all on its own and now is the beneficiary of our expected dollar weakness tailwind.

One other way you know this move is mostly gold demand oriented rather than due to outside market factors is the magnitude of the daily moves in gold these days. These double digit days to the upside were unheard of for years no matter what the dollar did. Yep, The $6 Rule has had it.

The tailwind for gold was gale force today. Oil stormed up $1.42 per barrel to $64.21. However, crude is still $3.50 per barrel lower than it was during Gold Rush 21.

The CRB gained 3.67 to 339.47, another multi-decade high and more fuel for the gold tailwind.

JAN CRB
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/RB/16

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Rhody:

Good morning Bill:
Gold lease rates are little changed this morning, although the spread between one month and one year has widened slightly, taking us farther from inversion.

Silver reversed its surge of yesterday and lost all the rate increases. In this, it is acting contrary to its moves in the past. There is no follow through to the surge in leased silver from yesterday, and instead borrowers are backing away from the lease silver market. This implies that silver’s correction may be short indeed.

Platinum had a minor fall in rates over the middle to late terms, while palladium had a significant increase in the later (6 month to 1 year) terms.

http://www.kitco.com/market/lfrate.html

Over at CRIMEX there were 5 contracts delivered in silver, and one in gold, so not much is happening here. I note that Scotia Mocotta was the big stopper again, COMEX warehouse stockpiles in silver remained unchanged, but there was 600,000 or so ounces brought into HSBC vaults that left the same day and ended up in Scotia Mocotta’s which then withdrew the lot for no net change.

This means HSBC had to bring silver in from outside COMEX to meet a demand from a customer at Scotia Mocotta, who then removed it from COMEX entirely.

This sort of thing screams tightness in supply. Strangely, silver is under-performing gold somewhat at this time on the spot market. As Bill likes to say, silver continues to act unpredictably, and I think this is because silver is still under the thumb of COMEX futures shenanigans. This has to mean the silver short is increasing.
Regards, Rhody.

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Von wegen Doppeltop. Da glaube ich nichts von!

Gruß
mvd

Ich bin zwar kein sehr alter Hase (zumindest nicht im Investment-Sektor), aber ich denke, der Kurs wird weiter nach oben ausbrechen, wenn NY aufmacht. Damit wäre das Doppeltop vom Tisch und einer weiteren Belebung steht erstmal nichts weiter im Weg. Aber selbst wenn der Kurs jetzt seitwärts verläuft, gibt es kein Doppeltop. Die Wahrscheinlichkeit, lässt man alles andere außen vor, für ein Doppeltop liegt also bei kleiner als 33%. Zieht man andere Indikatoren und Kontraindikatoren hinzu, dürfte die Wahrscheinlichkeit noch weiter sinken.

Damit würde sich meine Prognose bei der Umfrage der Januarpreise auf den Goldseiten bestätigen: >540 USD bei Gold Ende Januar. Und zwar deutlich!

Ich denke, wir können schon mal den Sekt kaltstellen.

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/au0182nyb.gif]

Wenn man diesen Chart betrachtet, dann fällt außerdem auf, dass wenn man die Ausbrüche nach oben und unten im Dezember ausblendet, sich der Kurs geradlinig nach oben weiterentwickelt hat. Die Ausbrüche führe ich auf saisonale sowie manipulative Marktgegebenheiten zurück. Egal ob vorsätzliche oder "fahrlässige" Marktmanipulation, man sieht sehr schön, dass selbst massive Käufe und Verkäufe am stetig steigenden Verlauf der Kurve nichts langfristig ändern können. Für mich ist die Hausse absolut intakt! Und seit Ende November hat sich diese sogar beschleunigt.

Ich halte es lieber mit längerfristigeren Charts. Jedoch nicht ausgeschlossen ist, daß sich der Aufwärtstrend stark beschleunigen könnte. Dann aber sollte man überlegen inwiefern es sinnvoll ist, ggf. über Puts von kurzfristig einbrechenden Kursen zu profitieren.

# Edel Man,

genau so sehe ich das auch, wir sind erst in der zweiten Runde beim Gold angekommen und leichte Korrekturen werden wohl kommen sind aber für den weiteren Fortgang sehr gesund.

gruss hpoth

Puts? Doppeltop?

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.kitconet.com/charts/metals/gold/t24_au_en_usoz_2.gif]

Wo es Gewinner gibt, da muss es auch Verlierer geben. Also denn mal los mit Puts und Doppeltops.

Ein paar Korrekturen mag es geben, aber der Chart wird dieses Jahr die 600 USD kreuzen, da bin ich mir relativ sicher.

Hallo Edel,

jetzt wo Eldo im Urlaub ist, da müssen wir doch hier die Optimistenfront gut vertreten. Sonst nimmt das mit den Pessimisten überhand und der Kurs steigt noch schneller.

Gruß zurück!

Zitat

Original von Edel Man
Ulkigerweise treten hier Aufschwünge ein,wenn eine der Koryphäen in Urlaub ist.
Wurde öfter in einigen Threads kolportiert.

Witziger Zufall natürlich.

Vielleicht liegt es ja wirklich daran, dass dann die Pessimisten in der Überzahl sind und deshalb die Leute kaufen.

Wenn ich mir den Chart so anschaue, 550 USD, dann kann ich mir mittlerweile selbst mit ausgeprägter Korrektur schon 650-700 USD zum Jahresende vorstellen. Zumal prozentual gesehen. :))

Bin ja mal gespannt, ob die Leute, die für 350 Euro Krügerränder kaufen wollen, das vor 2050 n. Chr. noch hinbekommen.

Zitat

Original von Kaufrausch
Bin ja mal gespannt, ob die Leute, die für 350 Euro Krügerränder kaufen wollen, das vor 2050 n. Chr. noch hinbekommen.

Ich hatte zuerst beim Überfliegen folgendes gelesen:
Bin ja mal gespannt, ob die Leute, die 350 Krügerränder kaufen
wollen, das vor 2050 n. Chr. noch hinbekommen

na, die müssen sich ja ganz schön sputen, vorausgesetzt sie haben brav gespart .... zumindest wenn es Normalverdiener sind - so mein erster Gedanke.

Doch nun zurück zum Ursprungsstatement:
Bin ja mal gespannt, ob die Leute, die für 350 Euro Krügerränder kaufen wollen, das vor 2050 n. Chr. noch hinbekommen.

Na, wenn man das Wort EURO durch EURO-DOLLAR ersetzt und damit eine eventuelle, gemeinsame Nachfolgewährung von EUR und $, die sog. "zukünftige Weltwährung", in der Werbung auch als "Globo" kolportiert..... dann könnte das klappen. So Gedanke Nr. 2

Fundamental betrachtet sehe ich da ehr schwarz: schon allein die hohen Energiekosten und eine tendenziell immer aufwendiger werdende Förderung lassen einen Rückfall des Goldpreises auf 350 Euro zwar nicht unmöglich, aber dennoch ehr unwahrscheinlich erscheinen. Zumal der EUR über die EZB-Währungsreserven mit dem Dollar verknüpft ist.

Jedoch: am Goldpreis wurde schon sehr oft gedreht und in Gold wurde auch schon öftest heiß und exzessiv spekuliert. Mindestens genau so steil, wie es hoch ging, ging es dann wieder abwärts..... meist sogar fielen die Kurse viel schneller und viel steiler, als sie stiegen. Von daher ist vieles denkbar.

Will sagen: drauf wetten, daß wir die 350 EUR die Unze Feingold bis zum Jahr 2050 nie wiedersehen, das möchte ich nicht. Jedoch: haben wir die bis 2.025 nicht gesehen, so werden wir sie auch bis 2.050 nicht mehr sehen. Soviel erscheint mir gewiss.

Gold wird in 2006 locker die 600US$ Marke überspringen; das Umfeld ist nach wie vor unverändert, wenn nicht sogar besser durch Bernake und seine Notenpressen den alten Schlawiner. Korrekturen kommen das ist so sicher wie das Amen in der Kirche, aber alle die keine Trader sind, sollten das permanente Ein- und Aussteigen lassen, bringt nix und die richtigen Zeitpunkte findet man eh nie. Nicht ausser acht zu lassen ist auch die langfristige Gold/Oil Ratio die immer noch einen immensen Gap aufweist der geschlossen werden will....in diesem Zusammenhang fällt mir wieder auf, dass sich GSP-Komet ganz schön rar macht, schade eigentlich.

Gruss