Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

Gold falls as dollar gets Bernanke boost ...before the bust !

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch)

-- Gold futures dropped as much as $17 an ounce Tuesday morning as the U.S. dollar moved higher against major rivals, after comments from Federal Reserve Chief Ben Bernanke on inflation were interpreted as signaling more interest rate hikes.

Will the Fed Kill Gold?

-- Posted Tuesday, 6 June 2006

So Bernanke got appointed and gold bulls cheered. After all, this was the guy who threatened to fight deflation by running the printing press while dropping money out of helicopters. Gold going to four digits and never looking back was a slam dunk, right?

Not so fast.....

Central bankers are, above all else, politicians. And shrewd politicians will do whatever is politically more popular at the time. The moment Bernanke took office, the talking heads in the media kept referring to Bernanke as needing to prove his “inflation fighting credentials” before the rate hikes could end. So whether speaking on Capitol Hill or elsewhere, the spin from Bernanke was something like, “The economy is wonderful, but we just need to make sure inflation doesn’t get out of control.”

As winter turned into spring, Wall Street liked Bernanke’s tone and the stock market marched higher. Bernanke even went as far as to give clues that the rate hikes would be ending soon. Wall Street really liked this and the Dow nearly rallied to an all-time high. But in April, the new Fed Chairman started to mess up when he told a CNBC reporter at a dinner party that the public had been misreading him. A few weeks (and several hundred lost Dow points) later, Bernanke admitted to Congress that he should’ve been more careful when talking about monetary policy off the record. He called it a “lapse of judgment” on his part.

At the same time the stock market was topping in early May, the commodity markets were zooming out of control. Jumps of 5% in one day in the prices of gold and silver reminded us of 1979.

All of the sudden, inflation became the talk of the town in Washington and on Wall Street. Ah, what a difference four years make!

So where are we now?

Stocks, real estate and commodities have cooled off over the last several weeks yet most people still expect Bernanke to hike rates again this summer. A hike in late June would indeed solidify Bernanke’s inflation fighting credentials – or at least that is what the media wants you to think.

We like to take a much longer term view of things at the Texas Hedge Report. Yes, the short term politics of the day call for Bernanke to stop inflation. But in the long run of history, the public cares more about full employment and rising financial asset prices than they do about rising commodity prices. High food and energy prices mean protests against oil companies accompanied by dog & pony shows in Congress. High unemployment means low approval ratings, revolution and upheaval. The Fed will hike until something in the economy breaks – maybe we are starting to see that today in the form of the equity and housing markets.

Bernanke says he watches the gold price everyday, so as long as he is trying to be a tough guy, we may see gold continue to take a pause. But eventually the employment situation will worsen and public fears about rising commodity prices will be replaced by fears of being laid off.

While we are not in the business of predicting monetary policy, we wouldn’t be surprised if Bernanke hikes once more and then says he’s done. We also wouldn’t be surprised if the stock market celebrated this news with a huge rally. That said, an end to the rate hikes coupled with the Dollar-bearish macro fundamentals mean that good things are in store for the precious metals.

The Fed may win this round against gold, but gold will eventually win the fight.

June 7, 2006

Todd Stein & Steven McIntyre
http://news.goldseek.com/TexasHedge/1149618389.php
Texas Hedge Report

Zitat

Original von Eldorado

The Fed may win this round against gold, but gold will eventually win the fight.

Wie wahr, wie wahr.

Aus dem Urlaub zurück, kann ich nur feststellen, es wird Sommer. Die Edelmetallpreise bewegen sich auf einem gehobenen Niveau. Spieler und Zocker leiden. Diese Anleger sind physisch meist bei 20% oder weniger investiert, und laufen seit Jahren dem Papiergeld hinterher.

Wer im Board hat es schon verstanden, dass wir in einer Zeit leben, in der die Erhaltung von realen Werten wichtiger ist, als die Geldmengenvermehrung. Die Geldmengenvermehrung macht langfristig keinen Sinn, daher kann ich nur jedem Boarder raten, seinen physischen Bestand auf zumindest 50 zu 50 % auszugleichen.

Nichts gegen den „Heiligen Geist zu Pfingsten“, etwas mehr „überzeugter physischer Geist bei Anlegern“ lässt jeden Anleger ruhig schlafen :D.

Edelmetall wird in dieser Zeit seinen Wert erhalten, Aktien sind ein Spielzeug für ungeduldige Kinder :]. Mein Kinderspielzeug wird nie das eingesetzte Kapital überschreiten.

Gruß von Ersatzkasse

Russia leading global 'stealth demand' for gold

The world's big money brigade is snapping up gold bullion at eight times the rate originally thought, according to a report by UBS, the world's biggest gold trader.

The huge sums entering precious metals below the radar are likely to help to put a floor under the gold price after the dramatic fall of $112 an ounce in late May - the sharpest correction since the bull market began five years ago.

The Swiss bank said information from its trading floor suggested that funds and investors were allocating 20pc of their commodity portfolios to precious metals.......

UBS warned that gold may have further to fall, followed by a period of sideways trading before embarking on another powerful upward leg of the bull-market rally.

Mr Reade said the immediate risk was a global economic downturn, dragging gold down in an avalanche sale of all commodities.

But if the global economy turns nasty, gold will ultimately decouple from its base metal cousins and regain its usual role as a safe haven currency and defence against dollar disorder. "The bottom line is liquidation first, haven later," he said.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/mon…y/2006/06/05/cnrussia.xml

Lupo bist sprachlos ??.... ich auch !

Double-Counting of Gold by Central Banks
May Have Aided the Price Suppression

By Sangita Shah
Financial Express, Mumbai
Tuesday, June 6, 2006

http://www.financialexpress.co…ory.php?content_id=129715

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) apparently directed
member central banks to double-count their gold when it had
been leased or swapped or otherwise had left a central
bank's vault or possession.

Such a provision for the central banks may have led to the
gold price suppression that lasted between 1989-2001,
after which the price started moving up.

Gold hit a 26-year high of $732 an ounce on May 12. Gold
has dropped 11% since then. Gold has not yet been able to
cross the high of $830 mark it hit in 1988.

The central bank of the United States in particular has
been seen as the primary mover in suppressing the gold price
by lending the gold for trading without accounting for it. However, there have been no concrete proofs in this regard.

The paper "Treatment of Gold Swaps and Gold Deposits
(Loans)" written by Hidetoshi Takeda of the IMF's
Statistics Department and published in April acknowledges
at length the potential for double-counting central bank
gold under current IMF rules and suggests rules to prevent
it.

The research paper commissioned by the IMF appears to
confirm the U.S.-based Gold Anti-Trust Action (GATA)
Committee's longstanding complaint that the IMF has had
been active on this front.

Responding to the research paper, GATA consultant
Andrew Hepburn, who discovered the double-counting of
leased and swapped gold at several IMF-member central
banks, remarked that even in arranging to correct the gold deposit books of its members, the IMF still would allow
them to be less than forthright.

Mr. Hepburn noted IMF guidelines maintaining that "to
qualify as reserve assets, gold deposits must be available
upon demand to the monetary authorities." But, Mr. Hepburn added, central banks have lent so much gold to suppress its price and make it less competitive as a currency that their
gold loans now far exceed annual gold mine production, and
so the loaned gold cannot practically be repaid "upon
demand." Recovering the central banks' loaned gold without exploding the gold market would take years.

In any case, the IMF's acknowledgement of the double-counting
of loaned or swapped central bank gold is more evidence of central bank intervention in the gold market, Chris Powell, secretary/treasurer of GATA, said in his dispatch.

-END-

Zitat

The Fed may win this round against gold, but gold will eventually win the fight...."

"eventually"

nodollar

So einen ""event"" hatte mir als Gold bei 730 war, jetzt sind die wieder am Zug.

Und so geht der Schlagabtausch weiter bis einer liegen bleibt wie bei einem Boxkampf.
Mit einer Druckmaschine (Doping) tut sich das alles leichter, erst Recht wenn die eigenen Medien die Richter spielen wer nun gewinnen wird.

Its still a long way to go !

Heute hauen sie jedenfalls schon mit aller Gewalt vor der Comex kraeftig zu.

Um drei Uhr kommt dann Verstaerkung, die wollen nun mit allen Mitteln die letzten optimistischen Goldbugs verjagen.

"Eventually" - ein falscher Freund?

http://dict.leo.org/ende?lp=en…arch=eventually&relink=on

Grüße,
Radloser Zucchero

Ich mache mir nun ein schoenes Getraenk und sage mir:

GET IT OVER WITH ONCE AND FOR ALL !

Lustig, sie holen jetzt oefters Alan Greenspan auf die Buehne der mitjodelt...... sein Buch erscheint bald, als Anzahlung bekam er gleich 8 millionen USD.......

Ben und Alan zusammen muss ja stimmen was die sagen, oder ?

Nach seinen Bla Bla geht der Oilpreis und Goldpreis gleich wieder runter....

Ich habe nun die zweite Tranche Silbercalls gekauft bei 11.52 USD als Antwort.

GBS.TO nachgekauft.

.... bei der Auferstehung des Fleisches

kommen Knochen zuletzt dran

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.seelust.de/images/ga-Broesel.jpg]

Heute geht ja wieder (fast) alles runter. Ein Nervenstresstest. Aber ich bin immun dagegen! Wer langfristig investiert und diversifiziert ist, dem machen solche Spikes nach unten nix aus. Das kenn ich schon. Zwischendrin mal 70% Verlust und am Ende 60% Gewinn. Da ist der Goldkurs ja echt stabil dagegen.

Sollen die Zittrigen nur verkaufen. Es wird demnächst in diesem Theater so schnell wieder hochgehen, dass die Zögerer und Zauderer dann bei 750 / 15 wieder nicht kaufen, weil es angeblich zu teuer ist. Und jetzt wird schließlich nicht gekauft, weil alles runter geht. Gründe, nicht zu kaufen, finden sich immer ...

Meine Geldbörse ist jetzt aber erstmal geschlossen. Ich will schließlich nicht illiquide werden. Also müssen die anderen Bugs noch was kaufen, damit es wieder hoch geht. Kann ich nur anraten, bei den absoluten Schnäppchenpreisen. Wer jetzt noch nicht eingekauft hat, sollte es IMHO tun.

Nun denn, ich hätte ein paar Teuros verdienen können, wenn ich gewusst hätte, dass es vor 3 Wochen kracht und wenn ich wüsste, wann es wieder rauf geht. Aber ich habe ein wenig Spekulatiussteuer gespart.

Gold, was fuer Gold ????