Ölsand - Aktien , Ölsand

Ich lege heute mal bei CNQ.TO nach..

Zitat

Original von Edel Man Kanadas Produktion an Ölsand hat sich seit dem Jahr 2001 auf 1,5 Millionen Barrel pro Tag verdoppelt – dann haben wir mit Kanada nicht nur den am schnellsten wachsenden Ölproduzenten der Welt vor uns, sondern möglicherweise auch den baldigen größten Erdölproduzenten der Welt....."

Nur weil Frau Kraus (seit einigen Monaten eifriger autodidaktischer Rohstofflehrling und Vielschreiberin) so was sagt, muss es noch lange nicht so kommen.

"CAN wird größter Erdölproduzent der Welt"

Bin bereit, bis zu 2 Unzen dagegen zu wetten. Zeitraum der Wette bis 2020. Danach sind S-A und RUS so weit überm Peak, dass es schwer zu sagen ist, wer dann die Welt überhaupt noch beliefert. Vielleicht ist es dann noch immer Kanada mit seinen Ölsanden. Keinesfalls aber mit mehr als 9mbpd wie heute S-A und RUS! So viel Säure verträgt der Athabasca-River nicht, wie es bräuchte, um all das Öl aus den Sanden und Bitumen herzustellen.

Um den Oilpreis zu druecken kommt man wieder mit super Oil Inventories und Daten das noch soooo viel auf Lager ist.

Da kaufte ich gleich einige Talisman....kein Taliban !

@EdelMan
OK - sie hat "möglicherweise" geschrieben. Selbst "möglicherweise" halte ich diese Aussage aber für unhaltbar.

In der Tat war Deine Threaderöffnung vor 2 Jahren weitsichtig.

Ich weise aber darauf hin, dass sich TROTZ EINER VERVIERFACHUNG(!) des Ölpreises seit etwa 2001 der Output der angeblich ab ca. 25$/bl profitablen Ölgewinnung aus Ölsanden noch immer in sehr bescheidenen absoluten Mengen bewegt. Zitieren wir dazu nochmals Frau Kraus aus dem gleichen Artikel:
"Wenn ...das Produktionswachstum so weiter geht – Kanadas Produktion an Ölsand hat sich seit dem Jahr 2001 auf 1,5 Millionen Barrel pro Tag verdoppelt – dann haben wir mit Kanada nicht nur den am schnellsten wachsenden Ölproduzenten der Welt vor uns, sondern möglicherweise auch den baldigen größten Erdölproduzenten der Welt. "

1,5mbpd sind -kommend von 0,75mbpd in 2001- eine Steigerung von 0,75mbpd in 7 Jahren!! Die Welt benötigt 86mbpd! Diese Steigerung in 7 Jahren deckt noch nicht einmal den ZUWACHS ALLEINE des CHINESISCHEN BEDARFS nur EINES Jahres!

Der Thread ist trotzdem wichtig. Wollte aber mal die Relationen aufzeigen, die Frau Kraus vor lauter Wald nicht sieht.

Got Oil(sand) ?

@Eldo
Völlig richtig! Auch der CoBa-Weinberg ist zB so einer, der (gerade bei Öl) den Wald vor lauter Bäumen nicht mehr sieht! Gestern schreibt er zB im GS-Tageskommentar: "Im Fokus des Marktes standen die zuvor veröffentlichten Lagerbestandsdaten in den USA, die einen überraschend starken Anstieg zeigten. Die Rohöllager nahmen in der vergangenen Woche mit 3,6 Mio Barrel im Vergleich zur Vorwoche deutlich stärker zu als erwartet . Mit dem dritten Anstieg in Folge erreichten die Rohölvorrräte die Mitte des Fünfjahreskorridors und geben damit kaum noch Anlass zur Besorgnis. "

=> 3,6 mb verbrauchen alleine die USA in etwa 4 STUNDEN! Aber ein Weinberg nimmt dies gleich zum Anlass, die Besorgnis zurückzustellen, wenn da mal "überraschend" (weil von den ANALysten nicht vorhergesehen) ein paar Tropfen mehr in den Fässern lagern. Weinberg ist (vermutlich mit ihm auch die CoBa-Kunden) erklärtermassen seit etwa $80/Barrel bearish/short für Öl und erwartet seitdem dramatische Rücksetzer. Da wird dann schonmal nach dem Motto kommentiert "es kann nicht sein was nicht sein darf, weil ich es nicht habe kommen sehen".

Wir merken uns also: Diese in den Medien ständig zitierten "Rohstoffprofis" stecken so sehr im Tagesgeschäft und hecheln von Interview zu Interview bzw. Artikel zu Artikel, dass sie immer wieder wegen der tagesaktuell durchs Dorf getriebenen Säue das Große Bild (PeakOil) nicht mehr sehen können!

Calgary, Alberta (January 30, 2008) – Suncor Energy announced today that its Board of Directors has given final approval to a $20.6 billion investment that is expected to boost crude oil production at the company’s oil sands operation, located north of Fort McMurray, by 200,000 barrels per day (bpd).

The Board’s decision is a key step in achieving Suncor’s long-term goal of responsibly increasing crude oil production capacity to 550,000 bpd in 2012 — and follows through on a growth strategy that Suncor first announced in 2001.

“Our long term growth strategy called for us to double our business and now, with the Board’s support, we’re constructing an expansion project that is thoroughly planned and engineered,” said Rick George, Suncor’s president and chief executive officer. “The years of pre-work leading up to this point will also help us deliver another commitment to our stakeholders — that we would work to ensure all future growth is completed in a safe, reliable and environmentally responsible manner.”

The expansion plans include constructing four additional stages of in-situ bitumen production, a new upgrader (Suncor’s third) to convert that bitumen into higher-value crude oil, and various infrastructure and utilities.

“Suncor’s business has historically relied on oil sands mining. This expansion puts in-situ development on a more equal footing to our mining operations and proves again how investments in new technologies can enable business to grow, while also allowing us to reduce our environmental footprint,” said George. Suncor’s in-situ operations disturb only about 15% of land, as compared to oil sands mining and more than 90% of the water needed for the process is recycled.

Of the estimated total of $20.6 billion, Suncor has already invested approximately $2.5 billion on the expansion, including detailed engineering, site work and fabrication of major vessels. In addition, Suncor’s consultation with stakeholders has resulted in a project designed to mitigate many of the environmental impacts oil sands development creates.

One area of particular focus is improved water management. Having already reduced water withdrawals from the Athabasca River, Suncor plans to proceed with this expansion without requesting any increase to its water licence. The project also calls for emission abatement equipment and sulphur handling systems to be installed to improve air quality and reduce odours, while new equipment and processes are also in the plan to improve energy efficiency.

“Suncor strives to combine strong financial results with equally robust environmental performance,” said George. “We believe this latest investment marks an exciting new chapter for our company as we invest in both expanding our business and working to improve our environmental performance.”

The expansion is designed to be completed in a phased manner. Mechanical completion of the new upgrader is expected to be completed in 2011, while bitumen feed from the new stages of in-situ production is expected to begin operation in 2009 through 2011. Crude oil production is expected to begin ramping up in late 2011, with full production capacity of 550,000 bpd expected to be achieved in 2012. Suncor’s plans for some components of in-situ expansion are still subject to regulatory approval and, as such, the company’s schedule is subject to change.

The capital required to fund the expansion is expected to be financed through cash flow from operations, credit facilities and access to debt capital markets.

“While we are firmly committed to our growth plans, we’re also placing a strong focus on the efficiency and productivity of our existing operations,” said George. “How we perform on safety, reliability, operational costs and environmental performance sets the foundation for what our stakeholders can expect in the future.”

Background information

* For more information see http://www.suncor.com/presentations.

Project Overview

The $20.6 billion investment (estimate accuracy range of +14/-10%) approved by Suncor’s Board of Directors is expected to deliver an integrated expansion to boost production capacity to 550,000 bpd in 2012 from the current planned expansion of 350,000 bpd.

Bitumen Supply – An investment of approximately $9 billion (with an estimate accuracy range of +16%/-13%) is to be made to construct four stages of in-situ production. Each stage is expected to produce an average of approximately 68,000 bpd of bitumen. (Depending on certain operational and market conditions, excess bitumen may be sold to market as a heavy crude blend.)

Upgrading – An investment of approximately $11.6 billion (with an estimate accuracy range of +12%/-8%) will go towards construction of an upgrader designed to process 245,000 bpd of bitumen into 200,000 bpd of crude oil. The product slate is expected to consist of approximately 85% sweet crude oil and diesel, and 15% sour crude oil. Oil products are planned to be shipped to market through third-party and Suncor-owned pipelines.

The cost estimates above include investments in infrastructure including pipelines, camps, administration facilities, cogeneration, tank farms and an interchange on Highway 63 to enable safe traffic flow. Expansion plans include integration with existing operations to allow for improved efficiency and flexibility.

The cost estimates above do not include expenditures associated with commissioning and start-up of the new facilities. Currently, this is estimated at $820 million (with an estimate accuracy range of +15%/-10%).

At peak construction in 2009 to 2010, the expansion is expected to temporarily employ approximately 7,800 people. On completion, the expansion is expected to create about 800 new permanent jobs.

Suncor recognizes the environmental challenges of growth are significant and the company is committed to taking action to ensure development proceeds in a responsible way:

* Water - Suncor has reduced water use per barrel by nearly 50% during the past five years. With this expansion program, the company plans to spend $225 million to further improve water management. As a result of plans to reduce water consumption and increase treatment and recycling, the company did not seek an increase in its water licence for the construction or operation of its planned third upgrader. In Suncor’s in-situ operations, more than 90% of the water used for steam generation is expected to be recycled.
* Land - This growth program invests significantly in an expansion of in-situ operations, which use only about 15% of the land normally disturbed by oil sands mining and do not produce tailings. In the development phase, Suncor plans to use new technology to reduce the impact of seismic lines. Suncor is also undertaking integrated land management practices with neighboring companies and industries to reduce the cumulative effect of resource development.
* Air - Suncor has reduced greenhouse gas emission intensity at its oil sands plant by approximately 50% compared to 1990 levels. While this expansion will lead to an increase in absolute greenhouse gas emissions, the company continues to investigate technologies such as carbon capture and storage that hold the potential for reducing absolute emissions in the longer term. The company also continues to target technologies to reduce intensity in other emissions. For example, approximately $800 million is being spent to reduce sulphur dioxide emissions through the construction of a new sulphur plant. Improvements in emissions of nitrogen oxides are also expected and Suncor will continue to investigate gasification options, which could enable the company to turn petroleum coke, an oil sands by-product, into a clean energy source. Investments in new equipment and processes are also expected to mitigate operational odours.

Und das beste an der ganzen Sache ist, dass Suncor diese ganzen Investitionen nahezu auf eigenen Mitteln bestreiten kann.....

NUR DIE DINGER FALLEN NICHT!!!

@Edel

ja ich erinner mich, wir sind beide fast gleichzeitig raus. War ne gute Entscheidung bis jetzt. Hab sie mir seit dem nicht wieder genauer angeschaut, sondern nur auf der Watchlist. Kann mich an keine relevanten News erinnern.

Hatte aber auch kürzlich überlegt, ob das wieder Kaufkurse sind, aber irgendwie hab ich das Gefühl die kommen nicht richtig mit ihren Projekten voran.

Bei Petrobank wollte ich ganz schlau zu 35 zu greifen und hab den Dipp verpasst.

Grüße

hier ein paar Einschätzungen:

Analysts Like The Long Term for Oilsands Quest, November 06, 2007

http://seekingalpha.com/articl…g-term-for-oilsands-quest

Blackmont Capital's best of the best 2008 - February 06, 2008

Oilsands Quest Inc., analyst Menno Hulshof's pick in the unconventional energy sector, has the second highest target return at 125% based on a target price of US$7.25.

Oilsands Quest has the single largest, contiguous oil sands acreage position in the industry," Mr. Hulshof said, addiing that its shares continue to trade at a sharp discount to net asset value, making it the least expensive company in its peer group.

http://www.agoracom.com/ir/OilsandsQuest/messages/723416

Desjardins Securities January 07, 2008

Upside of 80% see for Oil Sands Quest

http://network.nationalpost.co…-for-oil-sands-quest.aspx

On January 9th /08 TD Newcrest analyst Mark Friesen initiated coverage on Oilsands Quest

Speculative Buy rating and US$5.75 twelve month target.
http://www.agoracom.com/ir/OilsandsQuest/messages/716754

Kurzkommentar von Canaccord:

The question is, how long is it going to take for people to care about reserves or resources in the Alberta oil sands again and we don’t know what could create interest in that other than very high oil prices.
What may have caught your attention is that Connacher Oil and Gas has announced that they are doing a joint venture with Alberta Oil Sands and there are two of our favorite oil and gas analysts that have both told us the same thing...that Alberta Oil Sands is trading for a fraction of the price of others for heavy oil per barrel in the ground and if and when people care about the oil sands again, we wonder if this company is even around.

Jetzt müssten wir doch langsam auch die Werte aus dem Solarwerte-Thread abstauben ;).

Grüße

Hat mir ein Bekannter aus USA zugesandt - er glaubt dass es den US irgendwann mit modernster Ölfördertechnik gelingen wird , die immensen Ölvorräte der Bakken Formation, in Kanada und USA gelegen, zu fördern, die alles weit hinter sich lassen, was etwa in Alaska zu finden wäre. Dort sollen 270 bis 500 Milliarden Barrel liegen.
Hätte, könnte, wäre.... unvorstellbar ist es nicht. Marathon Oil investiert dort anscheinend 1,5 Milliarden Dollar in die Exploration.

February 13, 08

Massive Oil Deposit Could Increase US reserves by 10x

America is sitting on top of a super massive 200 billion barrel Oil Field that could potentially make America Energy Independent and until now has largely gone unnoticed. Thanks to new technology the Bakken Formation in North Dakota could boost America’s Oil reserves by an incredible 10 times, giving western economies the trump card against OPEC’s short squeeze on oil supply and making Iranian and Venezuelan threats of disrupted supply irrelevant.

In the next 30 days the USGS (U.S. Geological Survey) will release a new report giving an accurate resource assessment of the Bakken Oil Formation that covers North Dakota and portions of South Dakota and Montana. With new horizontal drilling technology it is believed that from 175 to 500 billion barrels of recoverable oil are held in this 200,000 square mile reserve that was initially discovered in 1951. The USGS did an initial study back in 1999 that estimated 400 billion recoverable barrels were present but with prices bottoming out at $10 a barrel back then the report was dismissed because of the higher cost of horizontal drilling techniques that would be needed, estimated at $20-$40 a barrel.

It was not until 2007, when EOG Resources of Texas started a frenzy when they drilled a single well in Parshal N.D. that is expected to yield 700,000 barrels of oil that real excitement and money started to flow in North Dakota. Marathon Oil is investing $1.5 billion and drilling 300 new wells in what is expected to be one of the greatest booms in Oil discovery since Oil was discovered in Saudi Arabia in 1938.

The US imported about 14 million barrels of Oil per day in 2007 , which means US consumers sent about $340 Billion Dollars over seas building palaces in Dubai and propping up unfriendly regimes around the World, if 200 billion barrels of oil at $90 a barrel are recovered in the high plains the added wealth to the US economy would be $18 Trillion Dollars which would go a long way in stabilizing the US trade deficit and could cut the cost of oil in half in the long run.

http://www.nextenergynews.com/…ext-energy-news2.13s.html

http://www.canada.com/saskatoo…5f-4058-9e25-17fb0c61cd61

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bakken_Formation

grüsse

auratico

... und wie als "Antwort" auf die oben verlinkte Erkenntnis, dass die US-Ölreserven sich über Nacht verzehnfacht haben und nun denen Saudi-Arabiens Konkurrenz machen ... steigt das Ölbarrel heute auf $107+!

Diese Ölsand-, Ölschiefer-Reserve-Sensations-Wasserstandsmeldungen poppen langsam fast ebenso häufig hoch wie im Goldmarkt die Verkaufsabsichten des IWF. Das ist mittlerweile ein guter Contraindikator im Ölmarkt.

Seht endlich ein, dass Ölsand-Unternehmen zwar mit viel Investment- und (hoch-umweltschädlichem) Säure- und Erdgas- und Wassereinsatz profitabel und fördernd werden können; dass aber PeakOil dadurch so gut wie nicht tangiert wird.

Aber auch die M Kraus und der E Weinberg - Guru kapieren das ja seit Monaten nicht: Der Weinberg ist seit wenigstens $80/barrel short und hat auch nach derart hohen Verlusten noch nicht genug und predigt die ultimative Ölpreiskorrektur.

Got Oil?

Danke Edel! kannst Du mir kurz bescheid geben, wenn Du die Trendumkehr siehst? Du bist da der Experte ;).Besonders bei Petrobank.

Grüße