Macht mich sehr nachdenklich, vielleicht ist der Goldbulle ja doch vorerst vorbei?
Ende 1974 war der Goldpreis bei $200. Ende 1978 war er ebenfalls bei $200. 4 Jahre (Mitte 1978 wurden $200 auch erreicht, nach 3 1/2 Jahren).
Der langfristige Goldbullenmarkt geht weiter. Nur was mittelfristig passiert weiß kein Mensch und daß die Spekulatoren trotz fallender Kurse mehr Gold kaufen (also bullisher werden) macht in punkto Contrarian Analyse sehr sehr nachdenklich!
Auf jeden Fall steht damit fest, daß dies keine gewöhnliche Korrektur wie eine der zahlreichen von 2001 bis heute ist.
Dan Norcini:
"Imagine my surprise then to learn from today?s release of the COT report that the commercial category went even one step further than I had come to expect from them. Their normal pattern has been to sell with steady determination but only into rising prices as they attempt to cap the price rise and resist the upward progress of the metal. Once the fund buying has abated or stalled, they then launch a counterattack of heavy offers which overpower the bidders in the market. This has the intended effect of causing a quick retreat by the locals who front run their offers and proceed to knock the market down into the sell-stops below which are then automatically touched off turning speculators into sellers. The process then feeds on itself producing an avalanche of selling which trips all the short term technical oscillators and has the black boxes lighting up the computerized platforms with even more speculator sell orders which soon turns into a veritable blood letting.
The cartel of commercials then use this forced speculator selling to buy back or cover the short positions they had built up over the course of the price rise congratulating themselves for having fleeced the momentum based trading funds who chased the market higher. We have seen this pattern repeat itself going all the way back to 2001.
What is quite extraordinary about today?s report was that it detailed something which I have not seen during the course of this entire bull market since 2001, namely, increasing short sales by the commercial category in the midst of a falling market ? not just a falling market, but a precipitously falling market at that. This is a startling new development.
What is even more remarkable is that the big trading funds, instead of dumping their longs into the lap of the waiting commercial cartel, actually appear to have been buying on the way down! This also is a FIRST! In other words, we have seen in one week a COMPLETE REVERSAL of the norm of the last 5 years in the gold market. As a matter of fact what I had been expecting to see was a REDUCTION in the net short position of the commercial category and a reduction in the net long position of the trading funds. I assumed that the gold cartel would dupe the trading funds into establishing a huge number of new short positions even as that same category sharply cut the number of long positions. I also assumed that the same thing would happen among the small spec category.
What actually happened was the exact opposite except for the small specs who ditched more shorts than they did longs! The big trading funds INCREASED their net long position as the market fell ? something they have not done throughout the history of this past bull market. Instead of piling on a ton of new shorts, the trading funds added only a bit more than 700 new shorts and almost 4,000 new longs into the price weakness. Could it be that this category is finally wising up and actually learning to beat the cartel at its own game? We will have to see but the fact that this has occurred at all is nothing short of astonishing."
Auch interessant:
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/maund/maund061906.html
Sieht für mich eher bärisch aus als bullisch. Auch Maunds Aussage, daß Gold keinesfalls so überkauft gewesen wäre wie 1980.
Bravo. Das hat auch niemand erwartet. Denn wäre es so gewesen, dann hätte man sich ja gleich auf die nächsten 20 Jahre Bärenmarkt einstellen können. Das bleibt uns somit erspart. Ob der Bullenmarkt sofort weiter geht, ob es 6-12 Monate dauert oder ob es sogar 3 Jahre Durststrecke geben könnte, darüber kann man mit solchen Vergleichen keine Aussage treffen.
Gruß
S.
![:]](https://goldseiten-forum.com/wcf/images/smilies/pleased.gif "Freude"){kind=small}
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