Gold und Silber... Informationen und Vermutungen I

Zitat

Original von GOLD_Baron
Vom 12.03.bis 18.03.2007

Seite 140, Welt:
Schwere Verluste für die Weltwirtschaft sind in nächster Zeit zu erwarten, da die Voraussetzungen für ihr gegenwärtiges Tun wegzubröckeln beginnen. Technisch ungelöste Probleme werden sichtbar.

Technische Probleme mit dem europäischen Projekt GALILEO??

Nächste Woche eskaliert der politische Streit zwischen zwei Ländern... Aber Zurschaustellung von Gewalt erst ab 02.04.-08.04 angezeigt... Vorher Ende März noch ein Ereignis das Bestürzung auslöst. Probleme mit Schiffen ...Zeit der Provokateure und Eiferer---> OPERATION FALSE FLAG??

Zitat

Original von Homm13

Technische Probleme mit dem europäischen Projekt GALILEO??

Nächste Woche eskaliert der politische Streit zwischen zwei Ländern... Aber Zurschaustellung von Gewalt erst ab 02.04.-08.04 angezeigt... Vorher Ende März noch ein Ereignis das Bestürzung auslöst. Probleme mit Schiffen ...Zeit der Provokateure und Eiferer---> OPERATION FALSE FLAG??

Fehlt nur noch, dass die eine deutsche Fregatte versenken....

Na dann kann die Ossi-Braut aber mit enormen Gegenwind rechnen, sollte sowas passieren, denn die hat es mit ihren Stasi-Bazillen zu verantworten...

Zitat

Original von Homm13
Na dann kann die Ossi-Braut aber mit enormen Gegenwind rechnen, sollte sowas passieren, denn die hat es mit ihren Stasi-Bazillen zu verantworten...

Die Empörung wäre immens....die europäischen Regierungen wird allesamt einem IRAN-Angriff zustimmen...

gutso
Guter Link zu M3!

Schade, dass es kein Zertifikat auf M3 gibt. Da könnte man satte Gewinne machen

VG heron

Zitat

Original von heron

Schade, dass es kein Zertifikat auf M3 gibt. Da könnte man satte Gewinne machen

VG heron

LOL!

edit:
Es gibt eigentlich ein "Zertifikat" auf M3:
Edelmetalle

Zitat

Original von heron
gutso
Guter Link zu M3!

Schade, dass es kein Zertifikat auf M3 gibt. Da könnte man satte Gewinne machen

VG heron

Ja!

Läuft vola-mässig leiser, als ein Dachhedgefonds ...

Gruss,
gutso

PPS: gut gebogen, den Löffel, Herr Geller!
- Stimmt wohl, nur dauerts immer so elend lang, bis sie die Kurse mal wieder "anpassen"

Mar 16, 2007 - Like a Rock!

That's how the dollar finished off the week. Dropping like a rock! It fell through 83.0 by the end of today's trading, ending up at 82.94, which is where it will sit until Sunday afternoon when the Asian markets open. So, is this to be the new floor-at-any-cost level I spoke of earlier this week? Perhaps.

One thing about which I am sure, however, is that they will heave back into the market to shore up the dollar and keep it from going further than 82.0 if this is one of the stair-step transition phases I described. Probably 83.0. Maybe 84.0 again, though their failure to intercede today, as they usually do on Fridays, implies a decision to let it ratchet down a bit, as they have been doing now for months and months.

Not too long ago, many forecast the end of the world if the dollar ever dropped below 85.0. Well, that is the new reality, isn't it? Remember when the dollar actually traded above 100, not so long ago? (By the way, the figure is a composite of six foreign currencies, designed to reflect the relative strength of the dollar on the world stage.)

Notice that I have set things up so that I can be right, no matter which way the dollar goes. I love being right. Call it a weakness.

Either they defend the dollar next week and we get another golden silver buying opportunity as its spot price plunges through $12.25 per ounce (silver closed at 13.10 bid today) or the dollar steps down a notch and silver takes out $15, enroute to $18, just as I described a month and a half ago.

Maybe it is just wishful thinking that makes me hope for another shot at $12 silver. In the fullness of time, $13 silver will look dirt cheap, believe me, just as I said, less than two years ago, that $8 silver was going to look really cheap (and it does already, doesn't it?).

When silver hits 18, I'll be talking about an impending retracement below $16 and hoping for $14 buying opportunities again. I could write that summer column right now.

Do you see the pattern at work? If so, good, but don't try to short-term trade it, folks. That's the way to lose money, believe me. This is a bull market for silver; indeed, for any commodity. Buy and hold. Accumulate on the dips as you can afford it from current income but never sell on the rallies - not until we see silver above $100 an ounce, anyway.

Don't sell at highs called by those who presume to foretell market movements (including me!), intending to buy back in at the trough of the next dip. You might get lucky a time or two, but the train will rush right past you much sooner than you think. That's one of the real advantages of buying and holding physical silver. The price has to surmount the 50- to 75-cent commission per ounce you paid for you even to break even. The bulk and the hassle keep you from day trading.

For example, when silver dropped $2 and dipped below 12.80 two weeks ago, I went and bought as many silver rounds as I could afford right then (not many, believe me, probably just like you) from my guy Steve Baldwin of Spokane Coin, then stashed them in a well-armed Sheriff's deputy friend's private vault on the way back from Spokane (I don't keep them at home for obvious reasons).

If silver then went below $12, I planned to max out credit cards with advances and buy about $15,000 in silver with the proceeds. I was all set to then take out a $50,000 home equity loan if silver went below $11, so as to pay off the credit cards and buy more, but that looks less and less likely now.

Do not try this at home, boys and girls! I do NOT recommend that anybody go into debt to invest, just because I am dumb enough to do so. The scenario i just described looks less likely since they failed to defend the dollar today. Who knows, though? Maybe they're just giving us a head feint and will push the dollar above 85.0 next week (and silver down into a buy range for me), in which case I'll file those home-equity loan papers with the bank.

You watch. I'll be talking just like this later this summer, but with 3 or 4 dollars added to all the per-ounce costs described today. Ah, for the day when I speculate as to whether they will be defending the .50 dollar because that might then push silver down into the $45-per ounce buy range!

And don't forget that I think it is high time to sell those EFT shares, such as SLV and GLD, and put the proceeds into the real thing. There is mounting evidence that the EFT managers are using your funds to acquire gold and silver that they then lease to others, with the effect that your shares actually help depress the price of silver and gold!

Fractional-reserve silver and gold! Who'd a thunk it? But, then, that is what presents us with the buying opportunities we have been getting, isn't it? This is like musical chairs, except lots more than just one chair was removed at the last intermission. The last few EFT shareholders will be left standing out in the cold when the music finally comes to a stop, as stop it inevitably must.

Please tell me you are not one of those still holding equities of any sort, not even in well-established mining companies. I don't even want to discuss how you are losing money to inflation in this government-gridlocked stock market.

http://www.conspiracypenpal.com

Den 5-fach Dr. vefolge ich schon 1 Jahr, macht öfters Silberprognosen und lag bisher top-silber-richtig.

wie zB damals im Juni als ihr und ich und alle zitterten:

http://www.conspiracypenpal.com/audio/doomed16-16.mp3

buy low sell high?

"

Now I want to talk about the current bull market in gold. This is a bull market that began in August 1999 with gold priced at 252 an ounce. Gold is the most emotional of all items -- loved by much of mankind, hated by certain elements including governments and central banks. Because gold is real money, and because gold is collected, traded and accumulated by millions of people the world over, gold bull markets tend to be BIG bull markets.

The gold bull market that started in 1999 has already taken gold up 291% to a high of 734 recorded in May of 2006. But what's so interesting about the ongoing gold bull market is that neither the public nor the funds have entered the picture. In fact, most people really have no idea that gold is in a primary bull market, this despite that fact that since 1999 gold has consistently outperformed the Dow and the S&P.

I believe that the gold bull market is now in its very early second phase. Informed investors have already established healthy positions in gold. I think that a very minor sector of the investing public has now taken some kind of a position either in gold or gold stocks or a gold ETF or a gold fund. Nevertheless, it's still unusual today to find an individual who has any kind of a position in gold.

Gold has been in a corrective phase ever its May high of last year. This backing-and-filling has served to discourage many Johnny-come-lately and in-and-out traders. Meanwhile, gold remains in what I consider its "bargain phase" below 734. But what about the future?

This is important. Almost all BIG bull markets (and I believe gold is in one) ultimately move into a third speculative phase. I believe this phase lies ahead for gold, maybe a year or so, maybe three, four or five years out. It doesn't matter -- in my opinion, the longer the time elapsed prior to the entrance of the third phase, the bigger the third phase for gold is fated to be. But before entering the third phase, we have to complete the second phase. The second phase, from the looks of it, may has quite a while to go before it is completed. Question -- how many of your friends own any gold?

My thinking is that when gold finally moves into its third phase, we may see one of the most speculative third phases in history. I believe we will see gold in the thousands of dollars. I believe we will see one of the most emotional bull market third phases in history. People will look back on the year 2007 and wonder what the world was thinking about with gold selling for $650 US dollars, dollars that were created out of thin air, fiat dollars which could be created by central banks in any quantity in at any time.

At any rate, that's the way I see this sluggish, unexciting, slowly-moving gold bull market here in 2007. I lived through and profited during the gold bull market of the 1970's. That bull market was based on inflation fears. This bull market when it moves into its third phase will be based on fear of the viability of the dollar and all fiat money. This bull market is fated to be much bigger than the bull market of the 1970's.

Kann mir wer verraten welches Motiv stärker für den Kursanstieg eines Wertes spricht als wenn sich Angst in der stärksten Form überhaupt (Existenz bzw Überlebensangst-stärkstes Bedürfnis des Menschen lt. Maslow: Überleben) hier (total untypisch zu anderen Bullenmärkten) die zentrale Nachfragekomponente ist (wenn der USD wirklich einbricht und rationalen Vertrauensverlust weltweit auslöst) mit der Gier (die sonst in Bullenmärkte normal die kurstreibende Komponente ist zB Dotcombubble) eigentlich nur die seichte Zusatzkomponente bemessen in der Anreizwirkung eines Investments in Edelmetallen darstellt, vereint, kann mir wer verraten wo der Preis aufhört zu steigen? wir werden alle so schauen innerhalb der nächsten 10 Jahren...

Richard Russell @ http://www.dowtheoryletters.com

Hallo Silbersqueeze,

der schreibt gut, ja. Vor allem die Stelle mit dem "Silber besser nicht shorten, sondern besser bei Dips nachkaufen" finde ich gut dargestellt.

Ich würde momentan ebenfalls die Gefahr eines kurzen Rückschlags sehen.
Aber den traden zu wollen ist eher wie Lotto.

Ich denke, dass der Verlauf der Kurse von Gold & Silber derzeit mehr an den Weltbörsen und an den derzeitigen Verwerfungen bei der allgemeinen Liquidität hängt, als an Fundamentals.

Wenn man den Gold und Silver Spot-Preis seit 3 Wochen ansieht, im Vergleich mit verschiedenen Indizes, könnte man meinen, die seien alle edelmetallhinterlegte ETF's, - oder aber die Edelmetallkurse nur papierhinterlegt.

Kann man sich aussuchen, "One (brave new) World" ...
Habe zur Illustration mal den Gold- & Silberspotpreis mit dem DAX im 10.Tages-Chart geplottet.
Mal sehen wann - und wie - sich diese derzeit allzu enge Korrelation endlich wieder auflöst.

Die Gefahr ist also, dass bei Schwächen in Shanghai & im restlichen Asien, der Tag auch für Gold & Silber gelaufen ist.

Deshalb achte ich morgens mittlerweilen auch mehr auf die Tendenz in Asien, kann man viel vorweg genommen sehen.
Ab Mittag dominieren dann so langsam die Erwartungen an New York wieder den Markt

Bin wie gesagt gespannt, - ab wann - und wie - sich diese derzeit allzu enge Korrelation der Edelmetalle mit den Indizes der Weltbörsen endlich wieder auflöst.
In China ist der Privatbesitz jetzt gesetzlich verankert geschützt. ...
Mal sehen, was sie in Zukunft also alles vermehrt kaufen werden ...

Grüsse,
gutso

hi gutso

ja leider fällt mir diese Korrelation auch auf, aber in der 2. Abwärtswelle hielten sich die Edelmetall sehr stabil ausser am Di wo sie mal mitabtauchten, aber im Wochenvergleich sogar zugewonnen, ok, aber dank Dollarverfall und inflationsdaten vom Fr.

die Asiatischen Märkte legen wirklich oft den Pfad für den Tag ist mir auch schon aufgefallen, zumindest für die Europäer, die Amis machen aus dem Tagesminus aber gern ein Plus und finden sich an schlechten Tagen zu dem bis zu den Europäern weitergepflasterten Pfad wieder ein und umgekehrt ein Minus (dank Manipulateuren) aus Plus. Viel vom Zufall abhängig

aber trading chancen gibts auch am Silbermarkt, leider habe ich lang nach Büchern gesucht und nix gefunden, aber jetzt hab ich endlich eins gefunden, gibts aber nur in online-Börsen glaub ich so was sind die in der Art, schon bestellt mal sehen ob es meine short-term trading results verbessert

Insgesamt ist es einfach am SIlbermarkt: nach den Krachern kaufen (leider kauf ich immer zu früh bis zum Zeitpunkt im Jänner wo Silber bei USD 12 am Freitag verharrte, und ich $12 auf eine meiner silbernen Kravatten schrieb und es wirklich was zu feiern gab

Leider sind die wall of worries zur Zeit größer zugegebenermaßen, v.a. wegen der leicht positiven Korrelation zw. Aktienmärkten und EM

Dass dies beim vergleichbaren Bullenmarkt der 70iger ganz und gar nicht so war sondern stark negative Korrelation sollte aber diese wall bald durchbersten (siehe 73-75 Aktienbaisse-Verhalten von Aktien und GOld)

Zitat

Original von Silbersqueeze
....
die Asiatischen Märkte legen wirklich oft den Pfad für den Tag ist mir auch schon aufgefallen, zumindest für die Europäer, die Amis machen aus dem Tagesminus aber gern ein Plus und finden sich an schlechten Tagen zu dem bis zu den Europäern weitergepflasterten Pfad wieder ein und umgekehrt ein Minus (dank Manipulateuren) aus Plus. Viel vom Zufall abhängig....

Nur Geduld. Es dauert etwas, ehe sich die Ereignisse in Asien und die auf dem US-Subprime-Hypothekenmarkt bis hin zu den Kapitalanlegern an den Börsen in den USA und Euroland vorgearbeitet haben.

Kommt es zum rash, dann wird es ein Zusammenbruch auf Raten werden. Und zwar einer, der ganz langsam beginnt und sich dann durchaus exponentiell beschleunigen kann.

Stelle mal den Goldchart von 1975 bis Januar 1980 auf dem Kopf....
und komprimiere alles auf einen Zeitraum von drei Monaten bis vielleicht zwei Jahren. So etwa könnte es aussehen. Start ist der 28. Februar....

Die 100.000-Euro Frage ist dann folgende: sind wir noch in 1975 oder schon bei 1976/77?

Zitat

Original von mesodor39

Kommt es zum rash, dann wird es ein Zusammenbruch auf Raten werden. Und zwar einer, der ganz langsam beginnt und sich dann durchaus exponentiell beschleunigen kann.

Stelle mal den Goldchart von 1975 bis Januar 1980 auf dem Kopf....
und komprimiere alles auf einen Zeitraum von drei Monaten bis vielleicht zwei Jahren. So etwa könnte es aussehen. Start ist der 28. Februar....

Die 100.000-Euro Frage ist dann folgende: sind wir noch in 1975 oder schon bei 1976/77?

Alles anzeigen

ich glaub eher bei 76/77 zumindest rein charttechnisch da der diesjahrzehntige Goldpreisanstieg bisher viel moderater verlief als der damalige.

interessant wäre ein Korrelationschart zwischen Gold und Aktienmärkten, hat jemand sowas? Denn damals verlief sie eindeutig negativ, als die WPbörsen erholten ab 1975-77 brach der Goldpreis ein. Ob wir wieder zu einer negativen zurückkehren? wohl nur dann wenn Goldpreis nicht mehr giergetrieben sondern die Angst infinitesimal und heimlich beginnt hier Fuß zu fassen. (im ganz kleinen Rahmen)

Zitat

Original von mesodor39
(...)
Stelle mal den Goldchart von 1975 bis Januar 1980 auf dem Kopf....
und komprimiere alles auf einen Zeitraum von drei Monaten bis vielleicht zwei Jahren. So etwa könnte es aussehen. Start ist der 28. Februar....

Die 100.000-Euro Frage ist dann folgende: sind wir noch in 1975 oder schon bei 1976/77?

Hallo Ihr beiden,

was mich dabei interessiert ist der voraussichtliche Verlauf der Einpreisung der M3!
Werden wir höhere CPI-Raten sehen, wenn ja, ab wann richtig?

Bisher hat Asien, und da vor allem China, das inflationäre Szenario durch Aufkaufen der US-Dollar getilgt.
Zusätzlich gibt es die "Deflationsmaschine Internet" und die deflationären Auwirkungen der Globalisierung. - Preise werden vergleichbarer, Produkte zugänglicher, auch solche aus dem hintersten Winkel, Nationalstaaten werden unbedeutend & zunehmend sind es globale Währungsräume & Branchen-Räume in denen man besser wirtschaftliche Abläufe erkennt, als man es bei volkswirtschaftlicher Sichtweise ("es lebe das Bruttosozialprodukt" ) könnte.

Was passiert aber, sind so meine Gedanken dazu, wenn in einer - vorläufig vorübergehend erscheinenden - Krise die Chinesen den Dollaraufkauf einschränken, die Leute in USA auf (sofern vorhanden) Erspartes und auf Vermögenswerte zugreifen, weil die Immobilienblase platzt - und andererseits durch national-ökonomische Tendenzen Teile der Wirkung der Globalisierung - wenn auch nur vorübergehend - abgeschwächt werden?

Dann schlägt der Blitz ein!

M3 -> CPI

Grüsse,
gutso

gutso

Zitat

Was passiert aber, sind so meine Gedanken dazu, wenn in einer - vorläufig vorübergehend erscheinenden - Krise die Chinesen den Dollaraufkauf einschränken, die Leute in USA auf (sofern vorhanden) Erspartes und auf Vermögenswerte zugreifen, weil die Immobilienblase platzt - und andererseits durch national-ökonomische Tendenzen Teile der Wirkung der Globalisierung - wenn auch nur vorübergehend - abgeschwächt werden?

Deine Frage lautet ja, ob und wann der USD komplett einbricht
(Chinesen stützen die Währung nicht mehr) und in Folge davon
eine Hyperinflation in den USA ausbricht
(durch den Dollarverfall und die Einpreisung von M3 in den CPI) ?

Ich glaube nicht, dass es soweit kommen wird, und zwar ganz
unökonomisch argumentiert: die Amis werden es nicht zulassen,
dass irgendein wichtiges Land sich vom USD verabschiedet (politischer Druck).
Oder sie werden sich dann weigern, ihre riesigen Auslandschulden
zu bedienen und politisch die Gläubiger dazu zwingen, auf irgendwelchen
finanztechnischen Wegen ihre Forderungen abzuschreiben.

Das ist zwar irgendwie fatalistisch argumentiert, aber genau deshalb wird es
meiner Ansicht nach eben nicht zum kompletten Zusammenbruch der US-Finanzen kommen.

Goldlöwe

Zur Abwechslung mal wieder der Tagesbericht von GATA/ Midas (Bill Murphy).

Es ist einfach das beste und gehaltvollste, was man überhaupt zum
Goldgeschehen jeden Tag lesen kann.
(ich schaue erst seit kurzem wieder öfters 'rein, hatte früher mal
ein Abo. Das Problem ist nur, dass man fast "süchtig" danach wird.
Man verbringt dann täglich verdammt viel (viel zu viel!) Zeit nur
mit dem Lesen dieser stories und das kann's auch nicht sein.
Aber trotzdem: immer wieder interessant.)

Goldlöwe

===============================================================

March 16 – Gold $652.20 up $5.90 - Silver $13.10 up 15 cents

Gold And Silver On The Move

If we move in mass, be it ever so circuitously, we shall attain our object; but if we break into squads, everyone pursuing the path he thinks most direct, we become an easy conquest to those who can now barely hold us in check." -- Thomas Jefferson to William Duane, 1811. ME 13:29

GO GATA!

Having traded, or been around, the futures markets for 30 years, I use whatever tools and input I can to try and figure out what is going on. Fundamental analysis is THE key to understanding the big picture, and comes first. Second, it is always important to understand the technical picture. And third it is essential to stay on top of day to day input to be on the watch for market developments which could change, or enhance, a developing scenario.

That said, I moan and groan about the technical picture for gold because it is a manipulated market. However, that doesn’t mean we throw the baby out with the bathwater. Where TA stinks is on gold strength … meaning just when gold ought to really accelerate and take off to the upside, it is almost inevitable The Gold Cartel will make their move to squash the price, after sucking in an excess amount of speculators and funds. Over the years there has been an exception here and there (like after Gold Rush 21), but they have been just that, exceptions. What is important to keep in mind is that for gold to what we expect it to do price-wise, the exceptions of the past will become the rule of the future.

As mentioned most of this week, the gold fundamentals are fabulous, off the charts. When it comes to its technicals, gold put in a 50% correction off its recent move to near $690 AND, for some strange reason, its open interest suddenly collapsed the other day (second largest drop since 1988). It certainly was not mainly due to spec liquidation because the silver open interest went up and the base metals were steady. Not once in 30 years has the gold open interest plummeted like that without the silver open interest going down a meaningful amount (much less going UP), if it were due to mostly to the specs running for the hills.

Something else occurred. No matter what it was, the gold open interest quickly was 40,000 contracts off its recent high. Perhaps the high open interest was not due to excessive spec long positions because, as noted for many weeks, the silver open interest was always diverging from gold and was nowhere near its old highs (20,000 contracts lower). Regardless, the drop greatly lessened concerns over more spec liquidation coming. Thus, the weird OI drop has become a technical plus.

Gold is now $14 off its correction low and has resumed its relentless trek higher:

April gold
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/47

My technical work is amateurish. Adrian’s is much more sophisticated. Last evening, with gold plus or minus, he sent the following to us:

Bill,
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

The Market Force Analysis for gold looks SUPER bullish. The market force indicator just dropped to the lower support line. This is a low risk entry point. This is unequivocally ALL SYSTEMS GO. There are no "ifs", "ands" or "buts". Gold is off to the races.
Cheers
Adrian

So far so good.

Gold was up $9 today on the Comex until the US stock market began to weaken sharply. The Gold Cartel is petrified of the gold barometer rising when the US stock market is under pressure with concern over increasing inflation, even as the US housing market is under severe pressure due to the subprime issues. Then, of course, you have the Bush Administration under siege with a new scandal showing up every other day.

What this panicky knee-jerk response by The Gold Cartel shows me lately is how DESPERATE they are becoming. They know they are gradually running out of central bank supply to bomb the market and to meet growing demand. Thus, they are doing all they can to diminish demand appetite by knocking gold down when it should be rising sharply. Should the general investing public finally think buying gold is a sound thing to do, in order to counter growing concern over US financial/economic markets, it is ALL OVER for the bums … and they know it!

Yesterday I mentioned the bottleneck in London over large silver bars used in industry. While it is to a much lesser extent, there appears to be a similar situation developing over large gold bars in Europe. A veteran of the metals industry (trade) called yesterday to say that the premium on those bars went to the highest he could remember this week before falling back. The kilobars went to $16 over spot before retreating. It bears watching.

The importance of silver taking out $13 to the upside is obvious:

<http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/SV/57

As the day wore on in New York, silver held its own while gold was nudged down from its highs. With the way base metals are trading, silver is severely undervalued.

LONDON (AFX) – "Nickel and tin hit unprecedented highs as LME stocks fell again on the day."

All the base metals outside of zinc closed higher again in London. The base metals shorts are being routed.

May copper closed up 2.3cents at $3.011. That lurch to take out $3, mentioned in Wednesday’s MIDAS with copper at $2.82, did not take very long, to put it mildly.

Not only are the base metals on a tear, but the dollar is continuing its breakdown …closing down .44 to 82.93.

The gold open interest fell another 2323 contracts to 365,653 and the silver open interest dropped 1564 contracts to 111,516. The silver OI is more than 30,000 contracts off its highs of the last year. It is set up to move SHARPLY higher and probably so in the near future.

The gold COT report showed the large specs decreasing longs by 7,343 contracts and decreasing shorts by 1987 contracts. It revealed the commercials increasing longs by 15,508 contracts and also increasing shorts by 9,113 contracts. All of this occurred before the dramatic OI drop on Wednesday.
The euro finished up .29 to 133.09.

Crude oil fell 44 cents to $57.11 per barrel.

A surprise: I did not see one comment anywhere, or hear from anyone, re Greenspan’s comment that a rising price of gold would not be an indication of inflationary pressures in the US.

More gold goodies:

Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $2.41, PM 4c, with world gold at $646.55 and $651.35. Quite adequate, and too thin, for legal imports. This is basis Delhi: other Indian importing cities remained positive in the afternoon. The rupee firmed to a three-week high but the stock market fizzled, losing early gains to finish down 0.9%.

TOCOM was mildly positive. On volume equivalent to 22,114 lots (+3.9%) open interest edged up 2.54 tonnes (818 Comex equivalent); the active contact closed up 10 yen and world gold went out $1.15 above the NY close.

Thursday’s up $4.60 day saw 57,915 lots trading on Comex and the combined equivalent of 32,007 NY lots in Chicago. Open interest lost 2,323 contacts in NY and the combined equivalent of 439 NY lots on the CBOT: a total of 8.59 tonnes. A clear pattern over the past week of rising open interest on weak days and declining on up days demonstrates that short selling was indeed the dominant influence recently.

On Friday around 4am NY time the $US abruptly weakened. Interestingly, gold responded far more than a mere FX rate reflection: Euro gold rose some E5. Unsurprisingly gold ran into selling around the $655 point which was also the obstacle on either side of last weekend. The regular close was up $6.80 with about 33,000 NY lots in combined equivalent trade in Chicago and just under 50,000 in NY.

CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH

The DOW fell 49 to 12,110 and the DOG gave up 6 to 2372.

22:01 Japan's Ministry of Finance Watanabe says only some short-term carry trades have been unwound -- Reuters

That makes sense … the yen has not really moved that much yet.

What no one outside the GATA camp talks about is the huge amount of GOLD CARRY TRADES that are out there. The interest rate charged on gold is not that much higher than that of the yen, very close. The gold borrowers have the same problem as the yen borrowers … when it becomes a good deal more expensive, a cheap loan becomes a very expensive one. Their big picture protection is to buy calls of some sort.

US economic news:

08:30 Feb CPI reported 0.4% vs. consensus 0.3%; ex-Food & Energy 0.2% vs. consensus 0.2%
Prior CPI unrevised from 0.2%; ex-Food & Energy unrevised from 0.3%.
* * * * *

Feb consumer prices rise on energy cost bounce

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. consumer prices climbed more than expected in February as energy costs bounced back from a January drop and food prices climbed at the steepest rate in nearly two years, a Labor Department report on Friday showed.

The Consumer Price Index increased 0.4 percent after a 0.2 percent January rise, while core prices that exclude food and energy items were up 0.2 percent following a 0.3 percent January gain.

Wall Street analysts had forecast a more moderate rise of 0.3 percent in overall consumer prices although the core price rise was in line with forecasts.

On a year-over-year basis, core prices were up 2.7 percent, likely enough to keep Federal Reserve policy-makers wary about potential inflation when they hold a two-day policy-setting meeting next Tuesday and Wednesday where they are expected to again keep interest rates on hold….

Food prices continued to rise sharply, up 0.8 percent in February after a 0.7 percent January increase. It was the largest rise in overall food prices since a matching increase in April 2005…

-END-

09:15 Industrial Production 1% vs. consensus 0.3%; Capacity Utilization 82% vs. consensus 81.3%
Prior Industrial Production revised to (0.3%) from (0.5%); prior Capacity Utilization revised to 81.4% from 81.2%.
* * * * *

10:00 Mar Univ. of Michigan Confidence reported 88.8 vs. consensus 89
Prior reading 91.3.
* * * * *

OIL:

IEA Is Disappointed by OPEC's Decision, Warns on Inventories
2007-03-15 11:48 (New York)

March 15 (Bloomberg) -- The International Energy Agency, an adviser to 26 nations, expressed disappointment over OPEC's decision to maintain its output targets today, warning that inventories could fall rapidly.

``We would have liked to have seen greater reassurance that OPEC will ensure markets are amply supplied,'' said Lawrence Eagles, the lead author of the IEA's monthly report. `` It doesn't take long for stockpiles to fall from five-year averagelevels.''

Earlier this week, the IEA said that stockpiles in industrialized countries were headed for their biggest first-quarter decline in 10 years because of OPEC supply cuts and cold February weather.

-END-

This one takes the cake:

SEC Allows Auction-Rate Manipulators When They Disclose Intent

By Darrell Preston

March 16 (Bloomberg) -- The Securities and Exchange Commission, after sanctioning Wall Street's biggest financial institutions for misdeeds in the $260 billion auction-rate market, now lets the same firms manipulate investor purchases as long as they disclose their intentions.

Citigroup Inc., Bank of America Corp. and 13 more investment banks get inside knowledge of bids when they run auctions to set the interest rates on the securities. They can use the information to put in their own bids and influence the outcome, even after paying a $13 million fine to settle SEC claims about the practices last May.

The difference now is banks have to tell investors that they use inside information with a notice like this one by Goldman Sachs Group Inc.: ''When we submit an order for our own account, we are likely to have an advantage over other bidders because we will have knowledge of some or all of the other orders placed through us.''

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/…d=amVIyWQRrnkI&refer=news

-END-

This is exactly what MIDAS has been reporting on re Goldman Sachs for eons, especially when it comes to gold and they know what their customer the US Government is doing, or wants them to do.

A sophisticated Café member noted, "From a GATA point of view the significant thing is that having found malpractice, the SEC averted its eyes. These big Investment banks are essentially unregulated: they own the government."

TOCOM:

Ladies and Gentlemen:
During the March 15th TOCOM sessions the seven big gold shorts increased their net short position by 2,050 contracts to 113,269 contracts.

http://www.tocom.or.jp/souba/gold/torikumi.html

In silver the same dealers increased their net short position by 303 contracts to 4,007 contracts.

http://www.tocom.or.jp/souba/silver/torikumi.html

Have a nice weekend,
Scott

Bill,
In the March 15 session on the TOCOM Goldman Sachs INCREASED their naked short position by 913 short contracts to bring their naked short position to 32,613 contracts. Since Goldman Sachs put out a bullish call on gold on March 13 they have increased their short position by a staggering 4,067 contracts. May be they take THEIR OWN analysts calls as a contrarian indicator!!! GS is clearly trying to resist a move higher. I believe they will be extraordinarily unsuccessful.
Cheers
Adrian

China to Relax Gold Shipment Rules, Central Bank Says
2007-03-16 04:16 (New York)

March 16 (Bloomberg) -- China, the world's fastest growing major economy, will gradually relax restrictions on the import and export of gold as the country deregulates the precious metals market, the nation's central bank said.

The country wants to involve overseas investors, including banks, in gold trading, the People's Bank of China said in its annual report on the nation's financial market, which was posted on its Web site today. The central bank gave no timetable.

China is the world's fourth-largest gold miner. The nation raised production by 6.3 percent to 238 metric tons last year,bucking a global drop of 2.2 percent, London- based research company GFMS Ltd. said in January.

The country ``aims to create a more relaxed environment for the development of the gold market,'' the report from People's Bank of China said.

-END-

Barrick, having failed to acquire Nova Gold in order to shore up its deeply underwater hedge book, is on the prowl for unencumbered gold reserves in the ground:

NEW YORK, March 15 (Reuters) - Canada's Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX.TO: Quote, Profile , Research), the world's biggest gold miner, may bid for No. 2 Newmont Mining Corp. (NEM.N: Quote, Profile , Research), BusinessWeek reported in its March 26 edition.

Citing "some pros," the magazine said Barrick would go after Newmont for its proven and probable reserves of about 95 million ounces of gold.

A deal would likely value Newmont in the "mid 50s," BusinessWeek said, citing pros.

-END-

Alex:

Is this not the most bullish signal for GOLD?

With their hedgebook (Barricks) and their connections to Washington , I would think they know the price is about to skyrocket.. otherwise why not buy Newmont a year from now if gold was going down?
Alex

More from Alex:

Bill
Out of my great collection of Books.. your Goldrush 21 DVD (top right) Trumps all the others.

What is going on makes all the others almost bogus. The most powerful of my Collection is GOLDRUSH21 !
That says a lot
Alex

If you are a new Cafe member and wish to know more about Gold Rush 21, go to:

http://www.goldrush21.com

GATA get-togethers growing:

Hi Bill,
Picking up on the idea of the GATA gang down under getting together for lunch, I would like to try to organize same here in Houston. Any ideas on how I might be able to identify/contact GATA members in the Houston area?
Thanks!
Spence

The new resistance point for the HUI is around 334, where it was thrown back again today. It closed up only .93 to 327.01, 7 off its highs. The XAU gained .75 to 133.29.

The way it is (This followed two irate phone calls from fellow Cafe members):

Hi Bill,
I realize that you can't always view my one minute chart attachments, but today's share action is so egregious, that I am sending a chart of AEM as a representative of so many others, and hope you can see the graphic story that it tells (MIDAS: could not view). This trashing of a major producer on a day with strong bullion performance is inexplicable, unless of course you realize that there is a cartel of bullion banks manipulating the gold market.

Today, the cartel was unable to negatively impact the bullion price, so they unmercifully concentrated their efforts on the shares, starting at about 10:50 e.s.t. Each time the shares attempted a recovery, they were sold off again. Clearly, the cartel of bullion banks, who were already majority share holders, have now increased their holdings through leasing, and can pummel the shares into a correction at will. All of these funds which leased their precious metals shares should be sued for their conflict of interest and failure to represent their shareholders interests.

What other explanation is there for today's disastrous share performance while bullion remained strong? Once again significant gains were stolen by a criminal escapade that operates with impunity and the blessing of the U.S. Treasury.
Rich C.

For more on "short selling" and WHO DONE IT:

YouTube - Naked Short Stock Sales - Part 1

.. Teil 2 folgt

hier noch der Schluss
- mit ein paar ganz interessanten persönlichen Berichten von Bill Murphy (der hat nicht schlecht gelebt !)

===========================================================
***

MIDAS is not always a ranting grump. Allow me to follow through with the full quote of the day yesterday from my friend Janice Dorn:

"Pain is what you walk through. Misery is what you sit in. Take an old pair of jeans and cut a hole in one of the front pockets. Now, start pouring sand into that pocket. What happens? Sand runs down your leg and to the ground. What do you do? Keep pouring until the sand is up to your ankles? Your knees? Your waist?"

Yep, having walked THROUGH pain taking on The Gold Cartel for so many years, and now sitting through this misery because what they are doing IS SO OBVIOUS and the numbnuts in the gold world just sit there and take it, I refuse to pour any more sand into my pockets. Therefore, I am taking off for Maui on Sunday for a week. Due to the time differences, the MIDAS commentary should come out on schedule barring any excesses at a late night Luau.

The occasion is a one year anniversary of the daughter of a girl I am dating. Her 16th birthday yesterday, but as of today she is free of brain cancer for one year, after dealing with it for 6. Pain? Misery? What we are going through is nothing more than aggravation and contempt for the disingenuous mainstream gold world and for the treacherous hypocrites on Planet Wall Street. Patience has, and will, cure all our temporary aggravation. Others are not so lucky.

While this will be my fourth trip to Maui, it has been nearly ¼ of a century since I have been back. All three trips were memorable occasions for very different reasons …

Trip one: as a broker for Shearson Hayden Stone as part of a top brokers reward excursion. What I remember most was sitting poolside with the now legendary CEO and Planet Wall Street guru, Sandy Weill, and a few other Shearson folk talking about the markets. Sandy W was smoking his usual "Stogie."

Trip two: going there on a double date with my friend Ed Marinaro … TV star of Hill Street Blues and Sisters; known best for being one of the most famous collegiate players ever, while at my alma mater, Cornell, and playing halfback on two Minnesota Viking Super Bowl appearances.

I once lived in a suite at the Beverly Hills Hotel for a year. Eddie, in Hollywood at the time (still is), fixed me up with a blind date, a good friend of his girl friend. In the chips at the time, I invited everyone to go Maui, where I had so much fun the year before. My date, Linda Thompson, had just broken up with Elvis Presley, with whom she had lived with for 5 years. The first nightspot we went to was playing Elvis’s music. I knew I was done for. I mean where to you go from there?

Linda and I became friends and she saw me two years later in New York with her new husband Bruce Jenner, America’s famous decathlon champion. Linda went on to win a Grammy for writing an original tune of her own.

Trip three: after moving to Drexel Burnham on Park Avenue, I went back as part of another top broker junket. My girl friend at the time had a stepmother whom you will know of if you ever watched the movie "Raging Bull" with Robert De Niro. Her name is Vicky LaMotta, ex-wife of Jake LaMotta, the famous Welterweight fighter depicted in the movie.

While on the flight over to Maui from New York, I happened to catch one of my fellow brokers reading a Playboy in the seat in front of me. He was looking at the centerfold picture of my girl friend’s mom, Ms. LaMotta, who had posed nude for that famed magazine at age 50 … a big deal way back then.

Oh well, to heck with misery!

GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT! and have to be healthy to enjoy it!

MIDAS
Appendix

Wickedness of Barrick's possible takeover of Newmont

Bill,
The news report that Barrick is rumored to be acquiring Newmont Mining takes wickedness and revulsion to new 'History of Civilization' high.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/…sid=apQBrKm0c8PE&refer=us

The takeover by Barrick, which will eventually happen, is simply a form of nationalization of the gold mining industry by the interventionists. Their desperation for gold is evident and indicates the importance of gold in their grotesque scheme.

How are the interventionists keeping the value of gold shares (and other commodity based stocks) down?

The interventionists are and have been keeping the value of gold shares down for years through fraudulent short selling. This is done though the counterfeiting of stock shares, by illegal naked short selling, printing money and/or derivative creation. Profit and loss are absolutely meaningless to the interventionists since they are the power behind the money creation.

To suppress the price of Newmont's stock, besides keeping revenues down from fraudulent short selling of gold, millions and millions of shares of counterfeit stock have been sold in the market.This amount is so large that it would hardly be believed. When Barrick makes its eventual bid for Newmont, these fraudulent short sellers will not need to cover. Only the legitimate short sellers, who have borrowed shares and must adhere to profit and loss (since they can't create money), will cover.

When Barrick's offer is accepted and the Newmont shares exchanged, the counterfeit shares will just disappear off the books of the interventionists, if they are even kept on the books at all.

Who are the interventionists?

The interventionists are the powers that be behind the Federal Reserve whose agents are the Federal Reserve System and government entities. The interventionists are primarily interested in their unbridled ego-elitist control of the world. The business leaders, the media, the judicial system, the legislature and the US President are either unable or unwilling to realize the 'Fraud of Frauds' that is being committed ... that individual liberty is dead and, as a result, so is the free market.

GATA is one of the few that understands the importance of gold as a cornerstone of a free market based upon individual liberty.

Go GATA.
All the best,
Raymond Green
RayGreen@ilnk.com

Hi Bill,
Re today's "Central Bank gold holdings fall to lowest since 1948, IMF says". This all ties with my previous statement saying the CB's have ZERO leasable gold left... so that paper gold is Cartel's only weapon.

I have another great theory... the "brain-dead tech fund" as you call them, behave so bizarrely, I can't believe they wouldn't have reviewed their black-box selling policy by now. Because they know they have lost so much money for so long... in a bull market! So I can only conclude:

-they don't care about making losses

-they are thus part of the cartel too (along with BB's, CFTC, WGC, media)

-US Fed uses part of their $30b per week of printed $ to cover losses by tech funds, or maybe even Goldman Sachs might chip in with spare change!

-infinite paper gold requires no physical up front, and more black-box selling later from tech funds (willing members of cartel) allows gold to be bought to cover

-with no weakness in sight, we must be patient, and wait for one in future... maybe their arrogance might lead them to some big mistake... and then we get our $3000 gold. Yippee!
Regards, Sid

Hi Bill,
Quad witching and gold and silver both ended up at the close. I can't remember whenever this ever happened in the last 5 years. This is just great. Dow didn't show well. Subprime mtg cancer is spreading rapidly. When will Europe send Freddie and Fannies bonds back?
Go Gata,
Roger

Hallo goldlöwe!

Nur, wer sollte dann unter solchen Extrembedingungen noch irgendwas an die USA liefern?
Sie sind ausser Stande auf Importe zu verzichten.
Bei den Chinesen nimmt hingegen eine Tendenz zu, sich zu verselbständigen, verstärkt auf eigene Resourcen zurückzugreifen.
Und mit den Russen, Afrika usw. zu kooperieren (Rohstoffe).

Vermutlich würde deshalb so ein Extremszenario Europa zerreissen.

Aber, ob es deshalb den Dollar retten würde?

Privatpersonen würden wohl nicht mehr den Dollar als Weltwährung ansehen. Das Vertrauen wäre zerstört.

Sondern irgend eine andere Währung.
Oder Gold & Silber.

Gruss,
gutso

PPS: @ Lucky, was lässt Dich vermuten, dass es so lange dauern könnte?
Ich habe da kein direktes Zeitgefühl, aber eben derzeit den Eindruck es braut sich an mehreren Fronten gleichzeitig so etwas zusammen. ...
Übrigens - nicht schlecht, wie wärs mit: "Fiat for sale!"

gutso

Zitat

Nur, wer sollte dann unter solchen Extrembedingungen noch irgendwas an die USA liefern?
Sie sind ausser Stande auf Importe zu verzichten.
Bei den Chinesen nimmt hingegen eine Tendenz zu, sich zu verselbständigen, verstärkt auf eigene Resourcen zurückzugreifen.
Und mit den Russen, Afrika usw. zu kooperieren (Rohstoffe).

Vermutlich würde deshalb so ein Extremszenario Europa zerreissen.

Aber, ob es deshalb den Dollar retten würde?

Privatpersonen würden wohl nicht mehr den Dollar als Weltwährung ansehen. Das Vertrauen wäre zerstört.

Sondern irgend eine andere Währung.
Oder Gold & Silber.

Gruss,
gutso

Alles anzeigen

Ich denke, politisch/militärischer Druck genügt, um andere Länder ("Protektorate") zu "überzeugen", zu liefern.
Meiner Ansicht nach machen erschreckend viele Ökononmen den kolossalen Fehler, immer nur aufgrund irgendwelcher Bilanzen, Statistiken, Zahlungsdefizite heraus die Weltpolitik hervorsagen zu wollen.
Aber das ist es nicht !
Für die Bewertung einer Firma (die poltisch nicht unterstützt wird) oder eines relativ schwachen Landes mag das hinhauen, aber nicht für
die einzig verbliebene Hegemonialmacht !

Für das imperium romanum (leider ist dieser Vergleich überhaupt nicht abseitig !) gab's auch immer eine Möglichkeit, die Provinzen von Lieferungen aller Art (und sonstigem Wohlverhalten) zu "überzeugen", ganz egal, ob die nun den römischen Denar für eine "tolle Währung" hielten oder nicht.

Einzig aus diesem Grund wird der USD eben nicht komplett abstürzen.

Goldlöwe