Gold und Silber... Informationen und Vermutungen I

Gold: The Next 30 Days Part II

Last week Gold was $50 below its year ago price. Today that difference, although still negative, is only $20. Once again to the penny. The changed fortunes of Silver are even more dramatic. Last week Silver was a full $1.74 behind its price on May 11, 2006. Today it has regained all that and is actually up 34c.

These declines in the price of Gold are completely misunderstood. They’re taken as a sign of weakness. No, it is the fiat currencies that are weak. It is not the holders of Gold that are in disarray. Rather we have the Central Banks in panic mode. It is the Gold speculators that are probing new highs, cautiously testing the enemy’s defences. Gold is not trying to be “worth more”. Its goal is to destroy an imposter. Central Bankers do not fear a higher Gold price but that Gold will unmask them for what they are: Inflationists. And that what they offer as “money” is not only worth less but entirely worthless. The recent probes at the $700 level succeeeded beautifully. They forced the Central Banks to part with more of the dwindling supply of their ONLY real asset.

The sentiment in the Gold Community remains dismal, which from a contrarion point of view is bullish. The Gold Shares, it is argued, are all way down, underperforming bullion. Is this view justified? If we limit our analysis to the highs reached last May then things certainly look that way. But that’s comparing hills with valleys.

Why not compare Gold with May 2005 when sentiment in the Gold Community was at rock bottom. At the time I wrote a piece for the Café simply called: “Gold Shares May 15, 2005”. I said at the time:

“We’re losing the Pyschological War. No doubt about that. They cannot get the Gold price down but they have been very successful hitting the shares. Remember their object is to scare us away from Gold coins and bullion. They want us to remain in the fiat currencies.”

So let’s see how we have progressed since then. In other words, let’s compare valley with valley.

I’ve updated the Table used in my May 15th 2005 article with closing prices from May 15th 2007. Bullion is up 59.3% over the two year period. The shares are all over the place as one would expect but the HUI is up 92.4%.. Four of the miners have been taken over, although Cumberland is still trading. Only one share is actually down due to war.

On the negative side, take a look at prices from Jan 1 2004. Gold Bullion is up 61.8% but the HUI is only up 36%.

Seven of the shares listed below are trading significantly BELOW their prices from three and a half years ago even though bullion is up over $250. That is definitely not only a sign of “sentiment”. It is a reflection of the ongoing inflation that is directly hitting miners. Most of the losers are marginal producers. Unless they have big margins like Goldcorp they are in trouble even with a higher bullion price.

If the cartel expects increased Gold production to relieve the pressure they are not going to get it at current bullion prices. Higher we go!

Cheers from Auckland, Ed Wener

GOLD & SILVER

Silver open interest fell 593 contracts to 108,698.

Last week one ECB central bank sold 22 million euros of gold or 1.37 tons.

On Wednesday, our sources tell us there was no less than six central bank sellers and leasers in the market along with the naked shorts. The Bank of Japan and the US Treasury pounded the yen. We saw a close at 120.76, -.68 after it ventured down to 121. The Fed and Treasury want the world safe for the yen carry trade, so they will put all those leveraged funds into the US stock market and drive it higher. That is so people will forget the carnage and failure in Iraq and Afghanistan. It is called misdirection or psywar. The euro fell .0073 to $1.3515, the pound fell .0091 to $1.9764; the Canadian dollar fell .38 to 90.63 and the dollar index closed back up above 82. They bombed the precious metal stocks as well. The 2-year Treasury yield was 4.73% and the 10’s were 4.71%. Oil was off $0.64 to $62.53, gas up $0.03 to $2.33 and natural gas was up $0.06 to $7.92. The Dow was up 104 to 13,488 on terrible housing starts and future permits’ news. S&P rose 117 and Nasdaq 233 Dow points.

Gold fell $12.60 to $660.10 and silver fell $0.36 to $12.83. Gold open interest rose 1,702 contracts to 408,936. On Tuesday, the big Tocom shorts increased their shorts by 1,671 contracts to 98,474. Goldman X(increased its shorts by 280 to 20,535 contracts. The same group reduced silver shorts by 284 contracts to 5,921. The XAU fell 1.35 to 136.15 and the HUI fell 3.95 to 325.44.

Friday finally was a solid day for gold, silver and commodities. Gold ended the day up $4.50 at $660.60 and silver rose $0.13 to $12.89. In the June gold contract gold was up $4.80 to $662.00, silver rose $0.12 to $13.00 and copper overcame early losses to tack on $0.02 to $3.32. There is no question gold does not want to go lower and the only reason gold faltered was that the central banks did lots of selling.

You use these corrections to make new buys. Gold open interest fell 2,803 contracts to 402,600. Silver open interest dropped 58 to 110,298 contracts. The move by China to raise interest rates and increase reserves means a strong yuan; higher export prices and higher US inflation. This is excellent for gold, silver and commodities. The large Tocom shorts on Thursday increased their shorts again by 6,645 to total 107,558. The same group increased their net silver short by 137 contracts to net 6,172. Goldman increased 1,608 gold contracts to total 22,995. It’s of interest that Harmony Gold spent A$75.8 million buying back forward gold contracts. This is Africa’s third largest producer. In US funds that is $62.4 million. The contract covered 230,000 ounces of gold to be sold at $425.69 an ounce. What a group of geniuses.

The Illuminati not only wants to suppress the gold price, but they want to erase gold from the human mind.
They truly want to label in the public’s mind that gold is a barbaric relic. They want gold eliminated in total. They want a world currency without competition.

On Thursday, 8.6 tons of gold was sold by GLD or 16.6 tons in two days or 31.6 tons over the month. This is shorting with no up tick at its finest. This is the enemy doing this. Do not buy into the gold and silver ETF’s, you are just cutting your own throat.

SATURDAY, MAY 19, 2007
THE INTERNATIONAL FORECASTER

Klar Edel, physisch beruhig mehr, trotzdem ein guter Zeitpunkt sich mit Gold und Silbercalls wieder einzudecken bei den Preisen.
Ich habe vorhin bei Silber 15 USD Laufzeit 12/08 zugekauft,nothing ventured, nothing gained.
Diese Woche wird sehr interessant werden,jeder wartet auf ein neues tief, kommt es ??
Mehr gibt es im Mond Cycles thread zu lesen.

Gruss

Eldo

Mahendra am 18.Mai:

I advise you must remain alert on the commodities and specially in oil and metals sector as they are in a negative Astro-cycle.
Many times my bearish comments must be disturbing to those who are want metals to rise every day but I may just be predicting the trend. I must warn again even at this point as metals look negative and no new buying is recommended even though prices have fallen substantially.

Silver should come down to $12.55 and Gold $654.80 than we may buy if these levels don’t break. Avoid metals and metal stocks. Copper and platinum have also come down and they should remain weak for another six days.