Gold und Silber... Informationen und Vermutungen I

Danke, Danke...ich zaehlte ein Jahr zurueck und bleibe 50
Mit shorting geht das noch einige Zeit .

Have a nice day

Eldo

Hier etwas von LMC:

The Market Force indicator (the red line) has fallen back to the lower support line which is the Hard Deck. (see chart)

The gold price pulled back a little more than I predicted coming in with a low of around $653 for the move. The re-test of the lower support line for the Market Force again yields a very low risk entry point for gold. In the bull market to date this lower support line has never been violated and I don’t expect it will be violated this time.

What is fascinating is that my analysis is clearly indicating that the market dynamics favor the bulls at this juncture and that a big upleg is highly probable. With Open Interest currently at an all time high this is tantamount to predicting a commercial signal failure.

Other indicators suggest that this is a distinct possibility. Sentiment is at extremely low levels; the mining stocks can hardly catch a bid and daily volumes have almost dried up.
Even long term gold bulls are bearish in the short term as they expect that the Cartel will pull another rabbit out of the hat at this all time high Open Interest level.

What makes me think that the cartel will lose this battle is that the market has dramatically changed. The physical market is absorbing record levels of gold dishoarding from the ECB, while similar levels of dishoarding cratered the POG by 200/oz just one year ago.

Gold has shrugged off talks of IMF gold sales, something that made weak longs head for the exit in the past. The longs seem very determined. They appear to be a lot less sensitive to price movements, which is characteristic of longs who want to take delivery, which is the Achilles heel of the cartel.

Gold production is shrinking and prominent hedgers are rushing to cover.

I have shown even more detailed analysis to Bill Murphy, that I don’t wish to publish, that suggests even more strongly that we have a different set of buyers on the long side.

This is, in my opinion, the most positive and comprehensive set up for gold that we have ever seen in this bull market.

We should not have to wait too long for this to be resolved. My guess is that we have a very good chance of breaking into all time record territory of $850/oz in the coming weeks to months.

We have bounced off the lower support line of the Market Force Indicator twice in the last few months and these have turned out to be false starts for the next really big upleg. We may get some more false starts but I tend to doubt it because there are too many opportunistic fresh shorts.

Cheers,

Adrian Douglas

May 26, 2007

Ps. Ich denke mir nachdem ich nun einige Vorraussagen gelesen habe die fast gleich sind und die mit meinen Bauchgefuehl vergleicht habe das bis Oktober eine deftige Korrektur in den Maerkten und USD kommt und Gold locker bis auf 790+> USD ansteigt 2007.
Mahendra redet von einen Anstieg von 25% innerhalb von 5 Wochen nach dem Crash, denke ich mal.
Vielleicht steigt der Dow bis auf 14.000 bis die Bombe platzt, alles ist kurzfristig moeglich.

Man sagt wenn die Maerkte fallen und die Leute Cash aus dem Markt nehmen dann fallen auch die PM Aktien.Das passierte aber schon im Januar, IMO wenn der ""Crash"" kommt wird es diesmal nicht schlimmer als es momentan schon ist beim HUI/POG. Selbst viele Astrologen und Mahendra sind nun der selben Meinung, irgendwas passiert nun bis Oktober, egal wie gross/klein dieser Crash wird.

Entweder A-B-C was kann passieren bei einem allgemeinen Crash?:

http://www.hartgeld.com/filesa…7-52_GoldminenImCrash.pdf

Ist das nun der absolute Boden 2007 bei den PM Aktien/POG/POS.?
Nun Geduld, Ende August sind diese Kurse und Preise bei den Metals vorbei und wir haben diese Korrektur vergessen.

Ich denke mir der Boden ist da, ich bin nicht der einzige der das glaubt.

Hier ein MP3 Interview mit bullish Peter Grandich:
Hoert Euch das mal an.....

http://marketmattersradio.com/…0526_3_peter_grandich.mp3

Von Bullion Market Insights:

http://www.goldsilverbullion.com/BullionMarketInsights.htm

May 17, 2007: Buying Opportunity of the Year.

Geeze, we just can't get past $700 per ounce on Gold, the Golden Bull Market must be dead! Precious Metals investors have all of the conviction of a 2008 Presidential Candidate. I have told everyone who cared to listen that protecting one's financial well-being in the years ahead was not going to be a cakewalk. One can expect and should expect, many bumps in the Yellow Brick Road to this lofty, yet attainable goal of relative financial safety with precious metals investments.

I try not to be too technical in my discussions of the bullion markets, since every black box program out there is looking at the same technical chart patterns, oscillators, and statistical data. But if I am correct, we have been down in the $655 region for gold off of interim highs some 3 times now, and I think we just went through our last, false start higher. Meaning, when the dust settles over the next several weeks or even days, we will spurt ahead like none of this indecisive trading ever happened. This is how markets shake the weak hands out, and get them to either totally capitulate or force them to buy back in at much higher prices after selling in panic toward the recent lows. Just be a long-term investor in this asset class, and these weekly/ monthly squiggles will do nothing to shake your conviction or success in a decade's or two-decade's long bull market in the precious metals.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Herr Murenbeeld's Economic Monitor vom Mai , der sieht auch den USD bei knapp 80 INDX sowie 1.39 - 1.41 $/Euro im Juli/August 2007

IMO ,der USD bekommt z.Zt. nur eine Vitaminspritze vom PPT die aber nur bis mitte Juli - Anfang August wirkt.

Mit viel Glueck steigt er noch auf 83 an dass wars aber dann.

Unter der 80 USD/IDX wirkt dann keine mehr, die Flucht aus dem Dollar beginnt im grossen Stil und die Edelmetalle steigen enorm an.

Die 8 -10 Wochen kann ich auch noch abwarten.

Last chance to trade in your USD !

http://www.murenbeeld.com/Downloads/0705-EconomicMonitor.pdf

Irgendwann ist Schluss mit den Goldverkaeufen vom IMF und der EZB, das ist so sicher wie das Amen in der Kirche.
Die werden jeden Tag schwaecher und die Chinesen z.B staerker.
Abwarten und gelassen sein heisst die Devise, wer das ganze langfristig sieht hat nichts zu befuerchten.
Die nur kurz in den PM Markt investieren wollen die werden sich wundern.
In dem Markt haut es einen teilweise bis 25% rauf und runter, nichts fuer schwache Nerven.
Darauf muss man sich einstellen und auch verdauen koennen, diesen kurzfristigen Papierverlust.
Die Chinesen/ Russsen/Inder/Araber lachen sich doch ins Faeustchen wenn man die Edelmetalle pruegelt.

MfG

XEX

Am 23 Juni ist das Bretton Woods Abkommen von Nixon 36 Jahre alt.
Es wurde geschaffen um uferlos Geld zu drucken ohne irgendeine Deckung. Es kommt als Inflation zurueck... hier eine Aussage von einen anderen Astrologen:

Das 2008 beginnende 10. Septar weist mit einem Widder-AC und einem Mars in Haus zehn im Steinbock eine Anlage auf, die sowohl für Krieg wie aber auch für staatliche Zwangsmaßnahmen in ihrer schärfsten Ausprägung geeignet sind. Letzteres ist natürlich bei einem Zusammenbruch der gesamten Sozialstruktur leicht vorstellbar. Auf jeden Fall wird ab Frühjahr 2008 jedwede liberale Maske fallengelassen werden. Das Wort Kapitulation leitet sich vom lateinischen caput = Kopf und dem Partizip des unregelmäßigen verbums ferre = tragen (ferre, ferro, tuli, latum) ab und bedeutet soviel wie als Besiegter dem Sieger den Kopf hintragen.

Die erstmögliche Auslösung des Mars-Neptun steht praktisch schon vor der Haustür und zwar vom 27. bis 31. Mai 2007. Das wäre der direkte Überlauf. Mitte September 2007 steht der Ryhthmus im Quadrat zu dieser Konstellation. Die Warnungen Greenspans erfolgten nicht ohne Grund. Doch selbst Greenspan wird den großen Krach wohl nicht verhindern können. Seine Worte dürften bald verhallen. Dann steigen die Kurse weiter. Bis die Blase endlich platzen wird.
Spätestens im kommenden September wird das der Fall sein.

...und dann schauen wir was die Zentralbanken dann noch auf Lager haben.

Blaubronco

Gute Idee ein Dax Put 6600, aber mit dem Dax habe ich nichts am Hut.
Dann aber den Dow Jones nicht vergessen und USD.
Ich bin hauptsaechlich in Gold/Silber, wie heisst es so schoen,Schuster bleib bei deinem Leisten.

Gruss

XEX

@Lupo..thanks

Ich bin seit 13.Mai wieder in Kapstadt, war gut, rechtzeitig am PC um den PM Tsunami auszunutzen/auszusitzen.
Ich bin wieder vom 2 Juli - 9. Juli in Minga, dann suche ich mir eine Wohnung dort.
Vorerst stecke ich das Geld in den PM Markt, dann gibt es mehr qm.
Kaernten war mir zu fad, trotzdem sehr schoene Gegend, nur mitte Juni- August sieht man dort genug Leute, ansonsten etwas fuer Rentner.
Da ist in Muenchen mehr los, ich kenne es oben drauf von frueher.
Graz war auch nicht schlecht ;)...dort sieht man huebsche Menschen.

Servus

XEX

LUPO

Alter Vampir :D..deine Liebe zu Silber schlaegt wieder durch.

Wir trinken noch einen aus mindestens Silberbechern, aus Gold trinkt nur der Papst.

XEX

Hier einige Charts von Trader Dan. (27.05.07)

http://jsmineset.com/cwsimages…8_Chart_for_5-27-2007.pdf

FIGHTING OFF CYNICS WITH GOLDEN GLOVES

by The Mogambo Guru

Lately, I get a lot of emails like "Dear Mogambo Butt-Face Moron (MBFM), I
am distraught because I listened to you and bought silver and gold like
you said to do, and they ain't done squat since then. By this time, I had
planned to be so freaking rich from buying gold and silver, and then
watching it run to astronomical heights, that I could leave my stupid
husband forever and be far, far away from here, sitting on a warm beach
somewhere, sipping a cold Pina Colada brought to me by a handsome cabana
boy named Raoul and having him rub soothing oils and scented emollients
all over my tingling body until I am writhing and moaning with pleasure."

I thought to myself, "Hey! This was starting to get good!" and was hoping
to pick up some pointers from this lucky Raoul character! So, imagine my
disappointment when the writer goes on, "So, since gold and silver did not
produce the spectacular returns I had so eagerly anticipated, I am stuck
here, I am very angry about it, and my husband is pretty disgruntled, too,
since I am now even MORE of a shrill, hateful harpy whose only pleasure in
life is trying to make him miserable enough to commit suicide just to get
the hell away from me. And don't get me started about Raoul, you
Disgusting Mogambo Puke Bag (DMPB)!"

Now, as soon as she called me a DMPB, I instantly recognized the writer as
my own wife! Ahhh! Pieces of the puzzle fall into place at last!

Too clever to let her know that I am on to her and her little game, I
casually reply "Dear Cheating Little Scumbag Whore (CLSW), The New York
Times writes that 'Representative Ron Paul of Texas, a libertarian-minded
Republican who often warns that excessive government threatens the
economy, has put his pessimism into his portfolio. If the dollar
collapses, Mr. Paul will be ready: his favorite investments are real
estate, silver and gold.'"

Then I closed my reply with "And Raoul says that you are a big, fat cow."
Hahaha!

And although the spiteful content of the email was all too distressingly
familiar, the concern is a widely-held one; why isn't gold going to the
moon in light of all of this inflationary insanity all around the world so
that we can get the hell out of here, away from our whining, suffocating
families and maybe find one lousy moment of happiness before we die?

Well, one explanation for the sorry performance of gold comes from a
Telegraph.co.uk report that "Over the past two months the Banco de España
has sold off 80 tonnes of gold, flooding the world market with enough
bullion to dampen the usual spring rally."

Plus, some other European banks sold some gold, too, and the gold ETF had
to sell some gold because some speculators bailed out.

In case you were wondering, this is all part of a desperation move by
Spain to get some money, as their "foreign reserves have plummeted to
wafer-thin levels :D, leaving the country exposed to a possible banking
crisis if the property market swings from boom to bust."

The Telegraph goes on "The Banco de España refused to comment on the
sales, leaving it unclear why reserves have fallen so low, or where the
money has gone", although "It appears the bank has been draining the
reserves to help finance the current account deficit, which has ballooned
to 9.5pc of GDP, reaching ?8.6bn in January alone."

This same current-account problem is affecting the dollar, being as it is
"the idiotic currency of an idiotic economy being run into the ground by
an idiotic Congress letting an idiotic banking system act despicably".

And the problems of the dollar will not be going away anytime soon,
either, although it has been up a little here lately. As to that, Chuck
Butler in his Daily Pfenning newsletter writes that the recent bounce in
the dollar "is simply a technical correction" in "the weak dollar trend
that began in February of 2002."

In case you were wondering how he knew that the downward trend of the
dollar started in 2002, he says "The dollar entered the weak trend when
its Current Account Deficit reached the historically telling number of
4.5% of GDP", as "fiat currencies always experienced a currency crisis any
time their deficit to GDP percentage reached 4.5%"

The Current Account deficit is now well over 6% of GDP, in case you were
wondering if things are getting any better. They obviously aren't.

And technical corrections aside, the reason that the dollar is headed down
is that (as the Current Account proves), "An asset begins a weak or strong
trend because of a fundamental reason, and the trend will not end until
that fundamental reason is corrected."

And what is that reason? A big part of it is that individual Spaniards
have acted just as stupidly as Americans, and "Spain's private sector has
amassed $600bn (£300bn) in foreign debts. Corporate borrowing is 100pc of
GDP. The overall stock of mortgages has increased sixfold in a decade.
Household debt has reached 120pc of disposable income, largely on floating
rates."

Oddly enough, this news hit my desk at the same time as a page from the
CIA's World Fact Book, which lists Spain as having the second-worst
current account deficit in the world, at $98.6 billion. Parenthetically,
the United States has the world's worst deficit at a gigantic $862.3
billion.

In case you were wondering, "Who are the top five in trade and financial
surpluses?" the answer is China ($179.1 billion), Japan ($174.4 billion),
Germany ($134.8 billion), Russia ($105 billion) and Saudi Arabia ($103.8
billion).

Until next week,

The Mogambo Guru
for The Daily Reckoning