Gold und Silber... Informationen und Vermutungen I

White Lightning

Diversifying in silver is a good way to hedge risks in your portfolio.

Diversifying risk is one of the most important objectives of portfolio management. This means that you may need to have some asset classes that may give only reasonable returns but are safe.

Also, if such an investment class proves to be a good hedge against inflation, then you are on strong ground. One such asset class is silver.

To begin with, for the average investor, silver can be an effective means of diversifying and preserving wealth against inflation. Accordingly, it is suggested that investors should include it among their investment assets.

As far as numbers go, between 1971 and 1981, the US dollar lost more than half of its value, while silver prices rose nearly five times. Presently the metal is at $12.62 per ounce...nun 13.30 $

http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/whitelight.html

Almost 85 per cent of the demand for silver mainly comes from the industrial sector. The main use of sliver is in items like electrical appliances, medical products and conventional film photography. And this demand has been surging ahead. Nowadays, there are newer applications for silver which come from products like batteries, superconductors and microcircuits.

Therefore, investment in silver can pay rich dividends provided you are patient. Since the demand is accounted by industries, it can often lead to price fluctuations depending on the demand and supply. Ideally, an investor should marginally allocate his investments in silver, in lump sum or systematically.

Systematic investing imparts discipline and mitigates volatility. The investment horizon should be long term that is, for a period between five to ten years. Also, silver often tracks the gold price because both are assumed to be 'store of value', although the ratio can vary. Traders and investors often analyse the gold/silver ratio.

Over most of the 19th century the gold/silver ratio was fixed by law in Europe and the United States at 15.5, which meant one troy ounce of gold would buy 15.5 ounces of silver. The average gold/silver ratio over the 20th century was 47. The ratio was at 49.8 in 2006, implying that one troy ounce of gold would buy 49.8 ounces of silver.

As far as the returns go, the price of silver is volatile, as it fluctuates between its demand as industrial raw material and store of value. And at times, this can cause wide-ranging valuations in the market. An analysis of the returns from the period 2000-2006 can be depicted.

As one can see the compounded average returns have been to around 15.30 per cent a year. Therefore, it is clear that the importance of this metal, as an investment cannot be ignored.

It is important to remember that standalone investments in silver may not guarantee you remarkable returns, but it may form part of a portfolio to diversify and hedge against inflation. Ideally, metals or jewellery can form a part of about 10 to 15 per cent of the total asset allocation of an investor to safeguard against inflation. And you can have 30 per cent silver in the portion of asset allocation in metals.

Good to listen, as well as Sting's version of I'll be watching you.

http://www.radio.goldseek.com/GSRplayer10.06.07preview.php

GO GATA!!!

Last night, during Asian trading hours, gold rose as much as $6 despite a higher dollar. This morning the dollar was lower, but The Gold Cartel was ready for action cabal style. The AM Fix came in at $733.15 and then it was Downhill Bill time.

What is important here is that The Gold Cartel knows how the specs operate on Comex. After yesterday’s drubbing, more and more of the funds, and their moving average trading systems, are susceptible to being stopped out of their long positions. Once one is stopped out, it sends the price lower, and towards other vulnerable tech systems sell points.

This morning with gold up early, many of these systems were out of danger. However, once gold went down on the day, this progression of more and more selling came into play … only countered by physical market buying on dips. The negative here is veteran physical buyers will want to see what kind of damage the liquidating specs will wreak on the price. They want to buy as low as possible. Should they sense a waterfall, they will back up and watch. This compounds our problem because the lack of buyers makes the correction a self-fulfilling prophecy.

The gold open interest only fell 3324 contracts to 439,865, which was nothing considering the size of the price drop. Based on the price action, there had to be a great deal more spec selling than that, which means The Gold Cartel and allies were in on the pounding, looking to gain their pound of flesh on further price drops.

As further evidence this is a Gold Cartel engineered selloff on the Comex, The AM Fix came in at $733.15, indicating firm physical market demand. Even the Comex influenced PM Fix was higher at $730.25. As is so often the case, the bums went into higher gear once the physical market pricing was concluded for the day in London.

Yet, when the day was said and done, the ole saying about "THE BEST LAID PLANS" came into play. Perhaps it was "newer" buyers of various sorts … whatever it was they showed up with gold under pressure to prevent the usual avalanche from kicking in.

With gold down $2+ Peter R sent us the following which capsulizes the day:

Bill,
One of the characteristics of a free market is its ability to surprise, to confound expectations. The failure of gold to follow through to the downside today must be a shock to anyone who has watched the commercial short sellers and central banks run this market for their own benefit over the last decade . It must also be a major disappointment to traders who expected, once again, to be handed profits on a silver (gold?) platter by the sellers’ collusive behavior.

While today may not (yet) appear dramatic to the casual observer, it may quietly be a turning point. We have all wondered what could draw the public back into the gold shares; how about a free market where gold begins to moves toward its natural clearing price?
Best wishes,
Peter R.

Sure enough, when gold failed to break hard as we came near the close, locals, looking for a collapse, were forced to cover and gold drifted back up to finish slightly higher. No doubt this has The Gold Cartel gang, and other shorts, shaking their heads.

Gold, which took out key support yesterday below $726, did so again today BRIEFLY, and then turned right around. This is significant.

One day’s action does not take us out of danger. The bums want gold as low as they can get it ahead of the all important US jobs report Friday morning. Thus, if they fail to get gold down tomorrow, it seems to me they will be in the deepest of trouble. The key for an upside gold explosion ought to be taking out the high made in Asia last night of around $736. A break of that level to the upside should send gold towards $800 per ounce.

Regardless of why gold broke and who engineered it, gold was due for a correction on a technical basis. It has been pretty much straight up. A funny looking gold chart:

December gold
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GD/C7

Silver was steadier than gold today, but still must show some oomph. Where is it? Soon to be seen I hope and suspect, even if JUST to keep up with most of the base metals.

The silver open interest dropped 94 contacts to 117,498.

Unbewusst habe ich vorgestern schon alle Harmony verkauft mit 20% Gewinn. Das Moos geht heute in physisches Gold wo kein Unglueck mehr passiert.
Harmony kommt von einer S in die andere, da fehlt es nun hinten und vorne..
Ein Minenunglueck gibt es immer wieder, als in China vor kurzen 300 Menschen in einer Kohlemine starben hat keiner von Euch sein Bedauern hier ausgedrueckt.
Man kann nur hoffen das ein paar kluge weisse die schwarzen rausholen bei Harmony, bis jetzt gab es keine Tote um sein Beileid auszusprechen.

Miners freed from mine

2007-10-4 06:52

Johannesburg

Almost 600 miners of the 3 200 trapped underground have been rescued from Harmony Gold's Elandsrand mine on Thursday morning, a union official said.
"They are quite angry because they feel that management has not communicated with them about the rescue operation or how long it would take," said National Union of Mineworkers' national health and safety chairperson Peter Bailey shortly after 06:00.

He said 200 of the 3200 trapped workers had been underground since Tuesday night. An alternative exit was not accessible because it was underwater, he said.

Those that had been brought out were exhausted, hungry, stressed out and relieved, he added. About 75 workers were being extracted at a time via a small shaft normally used to bring equipment into the mine. They were trapped around level 73 of the mine, about 2 200m underground, after a pipe fell into the lift shaft and cut off the power supply to the lift normally used to hoist workers out of the mine.

Minerals and Energy Minister Buyelwa Sonjica was expected at the mine on Thursday morning, Bailey said earlier.

The Elandsrand mine was 3 566 metres deep and would have 117 levels when it was completed. The miners were trapped around level 73.

Harmony acquired Elandsrand and the adjacent Deelkraal mine from AngloGold for R1bn in cash in February 2001.

SAPA

Ja, den Ironmen holt man sich wenn er am Schrottplatz ist.
Dabei haben die genug Silber und Iron Ore soll 30 % teurer werden neachstes Jahr.

Hey, war das die kleine Pause bei Gold ?

Kurz wieder eine Boing 737, ready to take off ?

Morgen und am Montag wirds sich zeigen und wer weiss wir haben ab 9. Oktober schon eine 777.

Wann auch immer, bei der Nummer knallen bei mir die Korken.

Morgen kommen noch die Jobnumbers aus USA, ich wette die sind auch frisiert.

Was auch immer, in diesen Monat wird sich einiges zeigen und irgendwas kracht zusammen sagt mein Magen..

Weniger als 1.395 zum Euro oder max. 0.792 USX gebe ich den USD nicht falls er soweit steigen sollte.

Bei Goldseek Radio sagte der Moderator er frisst seinen Hut wenn Gold auf 720 faellt.

Zuschauen wie das PPT gegen Windmuehlen kaempft ist auch eine Unterhaltung.