Hi Leute!
Interessante Einschätzung von "mexico mike" zum derzeit äußerst schwachen Junior/Explorersektor:
Friday, January 4, 2008.
For my first blog of the new year, I have to consider a title of 'endgame'. I do not think this is the end of the bull market for the PM sector. But I think in terms of the grand strategy, we have to be aware that the powerful forces aligned against gold are not idiots. I doubt they believe their own lies and spin. So while they may act on a day-to-day basis to cap and contain gold and silver, I am pretty sure that there is a long term strategy in place, and that they have planned an endgame to extricate them from the derivative exposure and paper overhang they have created.
The most telling fact of this strong bull market that separates it from other historic bulls for gold and precious metals is that we have not seen an aggressive acquisition strategy in place to acquire ounces in the ground. This is even more unusual when we consider that despite record spot gold prices, this time around gold production is actually falling. The reserves and resources controlled by the largest producers are in decline, and production levels are dropping. A deposit is a wasting asset. The more ore you take out of the ground, the sooner you will exhaust the resources and close a mine. So you can be sure that the decline in resources is an acute problem.
The other big point worth noting is that most of the majors significantly reduced their capability for exploration by decimating their in-house geological staffing during the long bear market that ended the last century. There simply are not that many talented geologists left to take charge of exploration programs, and most of them now work for juniors. So the only strategy left to employ for the majors is to go out and acquire ounces that have been proven up by juniors. This 'kill something and eat it' strategy is part of the development cycle for the sector. Most juniors have as part of their business plan a strategy to prove up a deposit and sell it. There are many large discoveries that are prime acquisition targets in waiting.
So what is going on? Why have there not been any great bidding wars as these majors know the critical need to acquire ounces, yet they seem content to wait for the low hanging fruit to fall into their laps? My guess is that there is some form of collusion going on behind the scenes, and that the players have agreed on which deposits they want and ensured that no others will step up to outbid them. They have the luxury to let the juniors struggle and go unloved and ignored, knowing that eventually they can scoop up great deposits cheaply and carry the development from there.
This would make sense if you consider that some of the bigger gold and silver names seem to have a tailwind in the market despite the presence of a large derivative exposure for some, and unimpressive operating numbers for others. Meanwhile, many smaller juniors are running at single digit P/E ratios, and the explorers have seen share prices plumb to multi-year lows despite the romp for the gold spot market. Surely, if you have a motivated group that is willing to cap gold and promote the senior producers, there is reason to consider that a hidden agenda is at play.
This brings up the interesting scenario that Barrick may not in fact be the agent of the Central Banks, but in fact it is the CBs that are the agent on behalf of Barrick. If you are willing to stall gold, and short the hell out the juniors, with the objective to obliterate any interest or excitement in the sector, then it makes sense that the juniors who control the big discoveries will be the victims of this policy. They are literally sitting ducks with market caps that are easy takeout plays for the big producers to grab. Therefore it makes a lot of sense that the senior players who produce most of the gold and silver are not complaining or denouncing the obvious manipulation at work in their markets. They are the direct beneficiaries of this scam.
Unlike the other acquisition sprees that have been common of late, the companies involved will be able to use share capital, and will not have to tap into leveraged buyouts. That is SO last year... Now, when you have big companies that are riding a wave of hype and promotion, while the obscure juniors are almost off the radar screen, it would seem to be the ideal time to strike.
I do not think that the smaller players will remain independent much longer. Huge silver deposits that could amount to hundreds of millions of ounces lie ready to develop, as controlled by juniors like T.ECU and T.PZG, while multi-million ounce gold deposits controlled by T.AGI, and T.SNN, are sitting ducks for the next round of bidding. And lets not forget that T.NG was successful to fend off a hostile takeover, and then mysteriously fell victim to a shocking underestimation in the development costs, and paid the price with a market meltdown. Was this a warning to play ball? I could name many others and also base metals stories that will probably be taken out shortly.
The easiest way out for the toxic derivative mess in gold futures is to allow the companies at risk to buy their way out of trouble. If there is a grand game to cap the metals that has involved the big producers as willing participants, than it makes sense that they are going to be afforded every opportunity to recover unhedged ounces in the ground through a bargain-basement takeover spree.
Perhaps when the next round commences we may see some life again in the juniors. Unfortunately, it is the investors and management of these juniors that are ultimately going to be ripped off in the biggest market rigging scam of our century, as billions of dollars in resources get scooped out from under them for peanuts. All of this goes on under the noses of the regulators that have been appointed and entrusted to ensure fairness in the markets. George Orwell must be spinning in his grave...
cheers!
mike
http://www.mexicomike.ca/php/p…ic.php?p=73786&sid=#73786
(weiss nicht, ob dieser Bereich des Forums ohne login zugänglich ist)
Ich frage mich, was kann man tun wenn er damit recht haben sollte?
Hoffen, dass das Interesse am Sektor dermaßen steigt und soviel neues Kapital in den Markt strömt, dass die Shorter gezwungen werden ihre Positionen einzudecken?
Hoffen, dass ein entsprechendes Übernahmeangebot deutlich über dem aktuellen Kurs liegt, oder es zu Bieterwettkämpfen zwischen Juniors kommt?
Hoffen, dass die von uns gehaltenen Companys nicht im Fokus einer Übernahme stehen?
Hoffen, dass sich die Juniors/Explorer gegen Übernahmen zu lächerlichen Kursen erfolgreich wehren können?
Irgendwie keine erbaulichen Aussichten!
Naja, die nächsten Wochen werden uns vermutlich zeigen, ob der Junior/Explorersektor wie (angeblich) üblich einfach später anspringt, oder ob es zu Übernahme(versuchen) kommen wird.
Was haltet ihr davon?
Gruß
der DAU
![:]](https://goldseiten-forum.com/wcf/images/smilies/pleased.gif "Freude"){kind=small}
ich finde er schreibt etwas verwirrend über die Gold/Silber-Zyklen