DRDGold Ltd. / DRD (NYSE, JNB) und die Derivate

    Neuer Termin neues Glück............................


    South African Reserve Bank


    2004-12-09 : Monetary Policy Committee Statement (15:30 Onwards)



    Ab 50-100 Basispunkte wird Tito Mbowi zum Nationalheld.
    Die Ehrenmedallie poliere ich heute schon für ihn.

    Wenn du lügen erzahlen willst,die geglaubt werden sollen,dann sage keine Wahrheiten die geglaubt werden.
    Shogun Tokugawa

    Rückblick


    Im Juni war Dr. Roffey von Gold Action glücklich, Droopy zu besitzen und wollte bei 2,50$ mehr kaufen mit Kursziel 10$


    Zitat

    Dr. Clive Roffey, Gold Action 372 am 15.Juni 2004:
    The data on DROOY is extremely bullish in the long term. It has merely reacted back to test the long term support level and I am happy to hold DROOY [Blockierte Grafik: http://download.smiliemania.de/smilies132/00000285.gif] and to buy more at the $2.50 level as my upside target is $10.
    The upside count out of this pattern is at least $10 and probably a lot higher, but $10 will do for now :D


    Leider kamen nicht 10 Dollar, sondern nach schlechten Quartalszahlen der Absturz. Nun hält Roffey Droopy gar für die Kaufgelegenheit, die nur einmal im Leben vorkommt.


    Zitat

    Dr. Clive Roffey, Gold Action am 12.August 2004:
    This is NOT a panic selling area but a once in a lifetime buying opportunity.
    I must look at Durban Deep as one of the best potential recovery stock situations that I have ever seen. I believe that within a month all the panic sellers will be ruing their recent hasty actions. [Blockierte Grafik: http://download.smiliemania.de/smilies132/00000285.gif]


    Jedoch Droopy fiel weiter. Die "Panikverkäufer", die damals verkauft haben, bereuen ihre Entscheidung entgegen Roffey´s Vermutung nicht.



    In der Watchlist von Mineweb ist Droopy der zehntschlechteste Wert 2004.

    Hallo Ulfur,


    ich denke bei DRD (Drooy) liegen die Dinge auch nicht sehr einfach. Die Aktie hat wohl sicher viel Potenzial und gerade Goldbugs "lieben" Sie. DRD hat doch einige Resourcen und die sind bezogen auf die gegenwärtige Marktkapitalisierung sehr sehr niedrig bewertet. Dem entsprechend bietet die Aktie natürlich einen irrsinnig hohen Hebel bei einem steigenden Goldpreis -in Rand ;-)).


    Wegen der extrem schlechten Goldpreisentwicklung in Rand und den hohen Förderkosten ist DRD aber momentan trotzdem akut bedroht. Daraus resultiert natürlich die Kursentwicklung der letzten Monate.


    Alles in allem wirklich eine Aktie bei der sowohl ein Tenbagger als auch ein Totalverlust denkbar ist. Alles hängt am Goldpreis in Rand und an der Bereitschaft der Aktionäre bzw. von Institutionellen evtl. auftretende Liquiditätsbedarfe über Kapitalerhöhungen (bedeuten natürlich wieder eine Verwässerung des Hebels) bzw. Finanzierungen abzudecken.



    Gruß
    Schwabenpfeil

    Die Börse ist wie ein Paternoster. Es ist ungefährlich,
    durch den Keller zu fahren.


    Man muss nur die Nerven bewahren !

    Also Dr. Roffey glaubt unbeirrt an den Tenbagger:


    Durban Deep will be one of the leading beneficiaries of such a move in the Rand price of gold. I receive daily emails decrying DROOY as a totally defunct situation. Wait and see what is in the pipeline for this stock. I do not rate DRJOOY as a $1 stock. Not even a $3 or $5 stock. I rate it as a $10 stock within the next 18 months. If you really want to make money in this gold market, stop bleating about DROOY and buy the hell out of it!!


    [Blockierte Grafik: http://goldseek.com/news/GoldAction/images/2005/1-24ga/2.PNG]


    This is DROOY compared to the XAU index.At first sight DROOY looks a disaster and this is what all the amateur analysts have been punting. But when one does professional analysis this is one of the most bullish charts in the gold market. There is a falling wedge on the stock price and the oscillator in the bottom frame has refused to confirm the new price lows setting up a major trend reversal and buy signal. The upper frames are the relative strength vs XAU and its oscillator. Once again there is a falling wedge coupled to a buy divergence signal. All of this indicates that DROOY is ready to reverse trend and out perform the gold and silver index.
    http://news.goldseek.com/GoldAction/1106580163.php


    Vieleicht könnte Roffey den folgenden "most bullish"en Chart ebenfalls seiner "professional analysis" unterziehen:


    [Blockierte Grafik: http://chart.finance.yahoo.com/c/1y/d/drooy.gif]


    :D

    Zitat

    I do not rate DRJOOY as a $1 stock. Not even a $3 or $5 stock. I rate it as a $10 stock within the next 18 months


    Da legt sich Roffey aber sehr weit aus dem Fenster.


    Zitat

    Durban Deep will be one of the leading beneficiaries of such a move in the Rand price of gold


    Steht außer Frage, nur wann kommt es zum "move"?


    Zitat

    At first sight DROOY looks a disaster and this is what all the amateur analysts have been punting. But when one does professional analysis this is one of the most bullish charts in the gold market


    Ah...ja... [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.bullfire.de/images/smilies/nounder.gif]

    „Die Menschen sind so einfältig und hängen so sehr vom Eindruck des Augenblickes ab, dass einer, der sie täuschen will, stets jemanden findet, der sich täuschen lässt.“ (Niccolò Machiavelli)

    Wenn der Schein nicht trügt, halten sich die Verluste "im Rahmen".

    gogh



    Aus: MINING WEEKLY vom 28-01-2005


    DRDGold's output up, SA contribution falls
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    South African gold-miner DRDGold yesterday announced an increase in its total gold output in the quarter to end-December, while its South African gold production continued to fall.


    The company reported a 13% increase in gold output at its non-South African mines, which accounted for 39% of total group production, while its South African operations saw a five per cent decrease in production.


    DRDGold said that its South African mines continue to suffer from the effects of the strong rand but added that the decline was mainly due to restructuring at the Blyvooruitzicht operation, which reported a 12% decrease in gold production compared to the previous quarter.


    This was attributable to an operational review resulting in a revised mining plan.


    A positive spin-off of this review was an 11% improvement in the yield from underground operations.


    Gold produced from surface operations at Blyvooruitzicht also increased from 3 858 oz or 120 kg, to 6 623 oz or 206 kg, as a result of higher production from the slimes dam project. Tonnage increased by 33% quarter on quarter.


    “The project is beginning to deliver a return on investment but recoveries are not what were anticipated,” DRDGold said in a statement.


    At the group's North West operations, the Hartebeesfontein and Buffelsfontein mines, production was also down slightly quarter-on-quarter.


    DRDGold attributed this to an 8% decrease in underground production, while surface production increased by 80% quarter-on-quarter.


    “Notwithstanding some positive indicators in respect of underground yield in the quarter, continuing poor results into December have necessitated the placement of the North West operations under operational review,” the company reported.


    Production at DRDGold's Crown operation was down 5% due both to tonnage shortfall at the Knights and Crown plants and a decrease in grade.


    At the ERPM operations, gold production from underground was down 21% as a result of wage-review-related work stoppages in December, as well as constraints placed on the operation as a result of the loss of a second outlet facility at the Far East Vertical (FEV) shaft, the company reported.


    Production from the Cason dump reclamation increased by 95% as a result of high tonnage and improved sand face grade.


    During this quarter, the Department of Minerals and Energy (DME) granted ERPM a pumping subsidy of R1,6-million a month until the end of February, back-dated to April 2004. In addition, the DME approved a grant of R7-million for the first phase of a project to insert plugs in order to contain underground water ingress. The full three-phase, 44-month plugging project which is expected to cost some R29-million, is intended to allow mining from ERPM's FEV shaft, hoisting from its South East Vertical shaft, and pumping from is South West Vertical shaft to continue beyond the planned closure date of March 2005.


    “Under certain gold price assumptions, these developments create potential for mining to continue for eight years, preserving some 2 000 jobs,” DRDGold said.


    The company reported that overall higher production from its Australasian operations was mainly due to good results from Porgera and, for the first time, a full quarter's attributable ounces included from the Emperor mine.


    DRDGold's cash operating unit costs improved quarter-on-quarter, indicative both of lower labour costs at Blyvooruitzicht and overall lower costs at its mines in Papua New Guinea and Australia.


    “In respect of the South African operations, further interventions are anticipated in order to achieve cost levels that will deliver acceptable margins from the South African operations at a planned gold price of R82 000/kg,” the company said.


    DRDGold is due to post its full interim financial results on February 24.

    Rand Puts DRDGOLD's SA Mines At Risk'


    Business Day (Johannesburg)
    NEWS
    February 2, 2005
    Posted to the web February 2, 2005


    By John Fraser
    Johannesburg


    DRDGOLD may have to close its South African operations unless it can cut costs, Merrill Lynch warned yesterday.


    The warning highlights the crisis facing SA's marginal gold mines as the rand remains strong.


    The financial management and advisory firm's warning was contained in a note to investors by mining analyst David Hall, sent out last month but released to the media yesterday.


    Hall said DRDGOLD had "underperformed the sector for the past six months" as the strong rand cut margins.


    Hall said DRDGOLD was " a company in two parts". It had profitable Australasian assets, while 60% of its gold was being produced in SA, at a loss.


    "Remedial action on the South African assets involves drastically cutting costs," he said.


    Hall said it would not be sustainable for the company just to mine its high-grade local ore bodies while awaiting a rebound in the rand-gold price.


    He said the outcome of DRDGOLD's cost-cutting efforts should be clear by next month.


    "The cost-cutting programme has yet to bring them into the black at the operating level."


    Hall noted that DRDGOLD ceased producing quarterly results after June last year, and the latest available results showed the company had cash costs of R92814/kg with a gold price of R85811/kg a loss of R7003/kg.


    "Clearly, losses cannot continue indefinitely, and if the mines are not returned to profitability, closure may be the only option."


    Closure of the South African mines would involve "significant retrenchment and other costs".


    DRDGOLD spokesman Ilja Graulich said yesterday: "We are currently in a closed period so we cannot comment on the company's financial position.
    "Our most recent results are being reviewed by our auditors in the normal course of events and will be released on February 24.
    "However, we are not aware of any causes for concern."


    In November, DRDGOLD CE Ian Murray said the company had restructured its local operations and the "cash burn" was over.


    >Rand gefährdet Droopys südafrikanische Minen
    Merill Lynch warnt, daß Droopy seine südafrik. Minen schließen muß, wenn es nicht in der Lage ist, die Kosten zu senken. Ausweichen auf höhergradiges Erz und auf Ende der Krise zu warten reicht nicht aus. Droopy besteht aus zwei Teilen, den profitablen australasiatischen Teil und den verlustbringenden südafrikanischen Teil, der 60% des Gold fördert. Seit Juni letzten Jahres gibt Roodepoort Rocket schon keine finanziellen Quartalsberichte heraus. Im letzten verfügbaren Bericht hatte Droopy Cashkosten von 92.814 Rand bei einem Goldpreis von 85.811 Rand/kg. Drdgold: „Wir sehen keinen Grund zur Sorge.“ Im November wurde behauptet, durch Restrukturierungen wäre der „Cash Burn“ vorbei.     <

    Als Aktionär würde ich die Schliessung der südafrikanischen Minen begrüssen. Es macht keinen Sinn, zu diesen Randpreisen Gold aus dem Boden zu holen. Für die südafrikanischen Minenarbeiter wäre der Schritt aber brutal ...



    Gruß
    Schwabenpfeil

    Die Börse ist wie ein Paternoster. Es ist ungefährlich,
    durch den Keller zu fahren.


    Man muss nur die Nerven bewahren !

    # Hallo,
    Schwabenpfeil, Deine Äußerung zur Schließung von SA -Minen kann ich nur beipflichten,ist natürlich ein unsozialer AKt. Was bleibt einen eigentlich noch übrig, DDR halten als Option bis sich ein besser Rand-Goldpreis bildet und somit die Hebelwirkung nutzen.


    gruß hpoth

    Ich wuerde es ebenfalls begruessen damit die Regierung, bzw Reserve Bank und Gewerkschaften mal aufwachen und endlich etwas tun um die Minen wieder produktiv und profitable zu machen.
    Auch wenn es weh tut sollten alle die nicht profitable sind eingemottet werden.


    Gruss


    Eldo

    "aber ich nehme sie erst im up-ward trend"


    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.totallycool.net/Blurbs72001/IMAG0022.JPG]


    Taktik ist: mit 1,0 € rein, mit 2,0 € raus

    Strategie ist: mit 1,5 € rein und mit 3,5 € raus.


    Die 1€ Variante gefällt mir, weil ich mir schwer vorstellen kann,

    daß Drooy deutlich unter 1 € fallen wird.

    [Blockierte Grafik: http://animals.timduru.org/dirlist/fox/042002-SnowRedFox-LooksBack.jpg]

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