du schaust mal wieder auf den spot, der ist nicht wirklich relevant.
das orchester spielt bei den terms und da gibts schon unterschiede zum spot im pricing.
ocean wall ltd
SPOT PRICE R.I.P (1987-2025)
The Hoot this Week: 2nd - 30th June 2025
Ocean Wall sees CGN Mining’s newly announced 2026–28 offtake pricing structure as a defining signal: the era of spot price dominance is over. The newly established Sales Framework Agreement between CGN Mining and CGNPC-URC for 2026–2028 marks a significant shift in pricing strategy, blending 30% fixed-term pricing with 70% spot market exposure. While the fixed-price component has been reduced from 40% to 30%, the base fixed price has been sharply increased to US$94.22/lb in 2026, escalating by 4.1% annually to US$102.13/lb by 2028. This is substantially above the current term price of US$80/lb, implying CGN Mining is locking in long-term premiums at a level ~18% higher than the prevailing industry benchmark. The use of independent forecasts from TradeTech and UxC to derive the fixed base reinforces the company’s bullish view on long-term uranium fundamentals and provides strong earnings visibility through the cycle.
The decision to raise the spot price weighting to 70% (from 60% previously) underscores CGN’s strategic shift to participate more actively in spot price upside. At today’s spot price of US$70.65/lb, the implied 2026 blended sale price would be approximately US$77.89/lb, already near parity with the term market and above current spot. However, if spot prices rise—as projected in high-case scenarios from both TradeTech and UxC, reaching US$100+/lb by 2028—CGN Mining stands to benefit significantly. The revised framework thus positions the company to capture short-term price momentum while still retaining a protective floor via elevated fixed pricing, reducing downside exposure in volatile conditions.
The second transaction—a one-off sale of 0.8 million pounds of U3O8 in 2025 to China Uranium Development at US$75.78/lb—was priced off UxC’s forecast midpoint and represents a transitional deal ahead of the new framework. The fixed price exceeds the current spot price but remains slightly below today’s term levels, suggesting a balanced commercial compromise. Importantly, it provides near-term revenue support and reflects confidence in maintaining a pricing premium over market averages, aligning with CGN’s forward-looking strategy.
The spot market appears increasingly disconnected from physical fundamentals. Because of the lack of liquidity prices have stubbornly hovered around $70/lb even as sector sentiment has surged and long-term demand visibly tightens. This price stagnation—despite positive developments in nuclear policy, energy security, and capacity buildout—signals a deeper market dysfunction.
In a normally functioning commodity market, rising demand alongside constrained supply should catalyse price action. However, uranium remains an outlier. The core issue lies in the growing irrelevance of the spot market to true supply-demand mechanics. Rather than reflecting physical scarcity, the spot price is now more reflective of near-term liquidity flows, inventory management, and speculative activity. This disconnect has rendered the spot market an unreliable barometer of real fundamentals.
vollständig unter obigem link
