Falls es einen Thread gibt, wo dies besser hingehört, dann leitet es bitte weiter. Bin kein Sammler, fand den Kommentar aber sehr interessant.
MAY 24 2007 10:00AM
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From a reader in central Indiana:
I just don't think the junk silver prices are really saying negative things about silver because I don't really think junk silver bags are of much interest to the average joe.
I'm writing about your comments on junk silver 90% bags and how depressed their prices are historically. I do remember that the bags used to sell at some premium to silver in the past (I'm 49) but I'm not sure that junk silver bags will ever have that premium again. I think that junk silver bags will be priced as a substitute for 100-1000 oz silver bars because there is no interest from the 299 million Americans I call "average joe". They WILL ALWAYS REMAIN clueless about gold/silver/monetary inflation, etc. until it's too late.
I do not think that the 90% junk bags are a leading indicator or any kind of indicator anymore, I think it will just follow spot silver melt prices. It isn't pushed or marketed or hyped like it was in the 70's or 80's back when a junk bag was more "popular". Silver could go to $25/oz and I think the junk bags would still be priced the same. (priced at same as silver bars, assuming silver bars are available)
I'm a coin collector too. Ever since the silver highs of $14/oz in May '06 the junk silver bags have priced/traded as an alternative and substitute for silver bars. The bid and ask price for junk silver bags has been consistently in the 95% bid and 98-99% ask range compared to the spot price of silver for the past 12 months. My source has been what Tulving Company lists for their buy/sell prices on silver junk bags (and gold too). I've been following it since last fall and junk silver doesn't waver much.
Here's why I think the junk bag prices are ok where they are. The average joe can buy silver bags for 98% and then would pay a smelter cost of 2% to make genuine silver bars. Actually I don't think the average joe is buying, it's more likely people like you and I are doing the buying, but there aren't a lot of us to make any difference in prices. I see the silver bar and a junk silver bar as nearly perfect substitutes for each other. If I wanted gold I'd buy a krugerand or maple leaf at about 1% over spot from them too.
As a coin collector we know these bags have been picked over for 40 years so there aren't any coins in them worth collecting. Very few bags emerge from grandpa's attic anymore. The junk bag is considered the near equivalent of a 715 oz silver bar that needs to be smelted, hence the discount.
Our coin club has a monthly auction of coins and the circulated silver halves and silver Washington quarters routinely sell at the silver melt value of 9x face (25c=2.25, 50c=4.50). A bag of them with 715 ounces is now valued the same by coin collectors, I don't think it will ever command any premium over a 100 ounce silver bar as long as the demand for silver from the "AVERAGE JOE CONSUMER" remains low. Very few people in our coin club even think about saving/collecting silver to use as a money substitute too.
At our coin shows where the local dealers come, no one sells junk bags anymore since the consumer isn't demanding them. They can get them from their inventory or a larger dealer in Indy with no problems, but people aren't after them like in the last silver/gold rush 30 years ago. I also don't think that the big money players are all that interested in junk bags and would probably rather just have 1000 oz bars stored somewhere as the coinage and divisibility of the junk bag is not of interest to them. (just a hunch).
I think the average joe consumer has no interest in silver of any type now, I think that explains the price more than anything, the demand in the USA is nil by the average joe. Actually back in May 06 and thru early summer there was a noticeable increase in people bringing in silver coins, silver bags, a few sterling silver pieces and tea sets into the local coin shop to sell. No one was buying silver at the shop, but people were bringing it into sell when silver hit $14/oz. The smelters got backed up 2-3 months in early summer so the coin dealers quit buying silver bags and the people quit bringing it in when the price fell in the summer of '06. The last 6 months, there is no major buying or selling of junk and bullion silver/gold. There is still major coin buying by consumers of key coins, gold coins, silver coins, and regular coins, the ones that sell for way above melt.
I'm just a little guy who collects some coins and talks to the coin folks here in our area since they're also on our coin club board. I used to be an investment programmer in insurance til I moved back to Indiana a while back. Now, I just follow coins, bullion, and of course, the stock market, grains a little, oil, gas, gold, and silver mostly, and try to live off my investment gains and steer some of my parents retirement holdings into minerals and energy even though they don't understand what our types talk about.
One guy kept telling me he's been using 5% back (95% bid) when he's out at auctions and dealing with consumers on gold or silver, this has been going on since Sept 06 for sure. It means he won't pay more than bid 95% since he's going to turn around and sell it right away. That's what the prices are in our little market, our bigger market is either Indianapolis, Chicago, or Silvertowne and they may pay a little more; that's where our silver goes.
We have small coin shows as we're a county of only 150,000. We just had our coin show in town Sunday, and some of the dealers said that old 1800's tokens and knives and memorabilia sold better than the nice coins they had. Our own club members would rather have a $12 civil war token than an ounce of silver or circulated silver dollar when we auction them off. (Most clubs have their own private auctions). That $12 token was $3 a few years ago. Historical items generate more interest every year.
There still are serious coin buyers looking for the better grade & key date coins to complete their coin sets as they are even more in demand by individuals here. Some go to the shows to see the dealers and some go directly to the dealers' shops, there are individuals with money for sure. There wasn't much buying or selling of bullion silver. We don't see the $100,000+ coins like the national and big regional dealers do.
And when it comes to stamps, there is no market or demand, completely dead.
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I would appreciate hearing more local experience across the world from a mix of sources: PM investors, coin collectors, cultural buyers, bullion and coin dealers, and "average joes". My goal would be to write a periodic "Retail Silver Market Report" (with an emphasis on bullion) as I think this type of information would be very useful and relevant. Contributors to such a report would receive benefits as well, so if you are interested and in a position to provide a perspective on the silver market (whether in the U.S. or elsewhere), please do not hesitate to contact me.
http://www.silveraxis.com/