So etwas in der Art von Nassib Nicholas Taleb wäre wohl so manch einer von uns sehr gerne, und ganz besonders Herr Eichelburg, den zu seinem Vedruss leider auch niemand mit Millionenhonoraren für schneidige Untergangsreden anruft. Dieser Taleb hingegen sagt den vertrottelten Bankern nun auf Vorträgen, die 60.000$ und mehr kosten, dass sie einfach ein Haufen von hirnlosen, gierigen Schwachmaten sind, deren gesamtes an den US-Universitäten gelerntes Ökonomie-Wissen nur sinnloses, hochgefährliches, Scheinwissen sei.
Er sagt ihnen nicht, wie man nun aus der gewaltigen Finanzkrise herauskommen könne, weil es dafür ohnehin zu spät ist, und er es auch selbst nicht weiss - nein, er klärt die gehirngewaschenen Banker einfach wie kleine Buben im Sandkasten in drastischer Sprache nur darüber auf, was sie in der Vergangenheit überhaupt wirklich gemacht haben, während sie dachten, das Rad neu erfunden zu haben.
Komisch... alles, was dieser hochbezahlte Herr zur ökonomischen Situation so sagt, weiss ich auch schon seit geraumer Zeit, allein es ruft kein Schwein an und in den eigenen vier Wänden gilt man gar als oberpessimistischer Quälgeist mit diesen Einsichten, die andere sich vergolden lassen. Seine Frau hingegen hat Verständnis für solche Einsichten ihres Gatten - kein Wunder auch bei der Bezahlung:
And what he knows does not sound good. The sub-prime crisis is not over and could get worse. Even if the US economy survives this one, it will remain a mountain of risk and delusion. “America is the greatest financial risk you can think of.”
Its primary problem is that both banks and government are staffed by academic economists running their deluded models. Britain and Europe have better prospects because our economists tend to be more pragmatic, adapting to conditions rather than following models. But still we are dependent on American folly.
Last May, Taleb published The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. It said, among many other things, that most economists, and almost all bankers, are subhuman and very, very dangerous. They live in a fantasy world in which the future can be controlled by sophisticated mathematical models and elaborate risk-management systems. Bankers and economists scorned and raged at Taleb. He didn’t understand, they said. A few months later, the full global implications of the sub-prime-driven credit crunch became clear. The world banking system still teeters on the edge of meltdown. Taleb had been vindicated. “It was my greatest vindication. But to me that wasn’t a black swan; it was a white swan. I knew it would happen and I said so. It was a black swan to Ben Bernanke [the chairman of the Federal Reserve]. I wouldn’t use him to drive my car. These guys are dangerous. They’re not qualified in their own field.”
In December he lectured bankers at Société Générale, France’s second biggest bank. He told them they were sitting on a mountain of risks – a menagerie of black swans. They didn’t believe him. Six weeks later the rogue trader and black swan Jérôme Kerviel landed them with $7.2 billion of losses.
As a result, Taleb is now the hottest thinker in the world. He has a $4m advance on his next book. He gives about 30 presentations a year to bankers, economists, traders, even to Nasa, the US Fire Administration and the Department of Homeland Security. But he doesn’t tell them what to do – he doesn’t know. He just tells them how the world is. “I’m not a guru. I’m just describing a problem and saying, ‘You deal with it.’”
“Governments and policy makers don’t understand the world in which we live, so if somebody is going to destroy the world, it is the Bank of England saving Northern Rock. The biggest danger to human society comes from civil servants in an environment like this. In their attempt to control the ecology, they don’t understand that the link between action and consequences can be more vicious. Civil servants say they need to make forecasts, but it’s totally irresponsible to make people rely on you without telling them you’re incompetent.”
http://business.timesonline.co…1.ece?token=null&offset=0
grüsse
auratico
(sinnfrei)
