...The increasing likelihood that Fannie and Freddie are going to require a massive government bailout, to the obvious detriment of shareholders, also leaves us scratching our heads about the logic of this rally. Given all of the above, the latest market rally in the financial sector looks and smells like a fake out. We believe there are forces in the market that want to cover up the damage in the financial system in order to restore a modicum of confidence so vital to its survival. Why did the SEC suspend the shorting of certain bank shares on July 15? The obvious intent was to drum up the markets. Why did the Fed call Credit Suisse when rumours began circulating that they were pulling a credit line from Lehman Brothers?5 Should the Fed be involved in the business decisions of foreign banks, urging them to maintain ties that are potentially to their detriment? Once again, the intent was to drum up the markets by maintaining a sense of optimism. We’d go so far as to say that the nefarious undertakings of the Plunge Protection Team itself are having a hand in this rally in financial shares. Perhaps just long enough so that more capital can be raised by the financial sector. Ironically, if financial companies were to take advantage of this rally to raise more much-needed capital, it would stop the rally in its tracks and likely throw it into reverse as further demands are made on the equity markets and further dilution of existing shareholders ensues. But whether or not one believes in market manipulation (and we believe an investor would be naïve not to 
), at the very least one can conclude that the rally in financials has weak legs that won’t stand the test of time. With or without manipulation, the markets cannot ignore the obvious for long.
The other half of the “phony express” trade has been the drubbing of commodities. The thrashing has been so severe that some are even being led to believe that it’s the death knell of the bull market in commodities. Nothing could be further from the truth! Once again, it has all the characteristics of a phony. The market action in the price of gold has been particularly difficult to fathom from a logical standpoint. After hitting almost $1,000 per ounce in mid-July, the price of gold is now in the low $800’s. This is the phoniest market of all. It’s the phoniest of the phonies. 
As we like to say, gold is the canary in a coalmine. It can smell the noxious fumes long before anybody else can. (In this case, the noxious fumes are emanating from the toxic assets of the financial system.) As any good banker worth his salt knows, in order to pull off an even remotely believable rally in financial stocks it’s necessary to commensurately pummel the price of gold. This, indeed, has been successful – at least in the paper market for gold where opportunities for manipulation are ripe. But the physical market for gold tells an altogether different story. In the real world, gold is unequivocally in shortage. The US mint has stopped selling American Eagle
one-ounce gold coins for the first time since production began 20 years ago, claiming that supplies have been “wiped out” as a result of a buying spree in gold coins. So far this year they have sold 311,000 ounces of the gold coins, 50% more than they sold in all of 2007. Kitco, a major bullion dealer, recently issued a press release warning that they are experiencing delays in gold deliveries due to “unprecedented demand”. Does this sound like an environment where the price of gold should be plunging? Most definitely not – except under the ruse that is the rigged paper-based gold market. Furthermore, we believe the latest inflationary data is also very bullish for the price of gold. The July Producer Price Index in the US blew away expectations, rising 1.2% in the month, the highest monthly increase in 27 years. Year-over-year, the PPI is up 9.8%. Even the highly rigged CPI (Consumer Price Index) is up 5.6% over last year. In many emerging economies, consumer inflation is running well into the double digits. This is hardly a tamed inflationary environment, and should be highly bullish for gold. [u]Those who claim that a recession will put a lid on prices have obviously never heard of stagflation. [soviel zu den Deflationisten, die heute wieder aus allen Löchern kriechen und in fast allen ANDEREN Märkten sogar recht bekommen könnten]. After all it’s a fiat currency world we live in, not a gold standard. Inflation is anywhere and everywhere a monetary phenomenon. The highly topical, and in our view imminent, government bailout of Fannie and Freddie should be screamingly bullish for gold.[/u] This will come at an enormous cost that will have to be paid for either by doubling the Treasury’s debt or cranking up the Fed’s printing presses. Either way, it will not bode well for the financial markets and should be, once again, gold positive and financials negative. The price of gold should be skyrocketing… but it isn’t, courtesy of the Phony Express who want to turn the canary into roadkill.
This just in: Gold Fields, a major gold producer, claimed in a press conference last week that its mines could not be replaced anywhere in the world at current gold prices of $820 per ounce. The CEO of Gold Fields said: “If you tried to build these mines today, you would need a $2000/oz gold price and higher to justify the investment.” If this isn’t gold bullish, we don’t know what is. Indeed, we continue to believe that gold is woefully underpriced from both the demand (for physical delivery) and supply (replacement cost) fundamental standpoints.
We believe the market action in the price of oil is also not above suspicion. The run up in the price of oil in the first half of the year was nothing short of phenomenal. A pullback of some sort was inevitable and certainly not unexpected. However, we find it suspect that the price of oil (and gold) should fall just as tensions in Georgia escalated into an all-out war, resulting in the shutting of a major oil pipeline and fuelling (pardon the pun) renewed tensions between East and West. Make no mistake, what is occurring in the Caucuses not only has worrisome geopolitical ramifications, but also obvious and significant ramifications for the energy markets, not least of all because Russia is currently the world’s largest producer of oil with undeniably increasing geopolitical clout. That the price of oil (and gold) should behave the way they did as these events unfolded defied logic. Be that as it may, those who are fearful that the so-called bubble is bursting in the energy sector should take solace in the fact that the insiders of oil and gas companies are buying their stocks… and in droves.7 This is far from the behaviour one would expect in the midst of a bursting bubble. When the NASDAQ bubble of 2000 burst there was insider selling galore. When the housing bubble began to burst in 2005 the insiders of homebuilders rampaged for the exits. Not so for the energy sector. Although the Phony Express wants you to believe that the commodity bubble is bursting, reality seems to say otherwise. Perhaps it’s because it wasn’t a bubble in the first place. We believe the bizarre action in the markets during July and August does not portend of a new trend. In our opinion, oil, gold, and other real assets shall remain in a bull market and the faux-rally in financials will die the death of a thousand cuts. We believe the visible hand (and not so visible hand) are everywhere trying to phony up the markets. Apparently there is too much at stake to let the free markets decide. But logic, and history, dictates that decide they ultimately will.
als real gelebtes Konzept in die Tonne treten könne - und die gesamte klassische VWL gleich dazu. Die Modellvoraussetzungen sind derzeit einfach nicht mehr erfüllt, wenn Moral Hazard auslösende Maßnahmen keine quantitativen oder auch nur qualitative Grenzen mehr zu kennen scheinen!
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, denn erst jetzt kommt der interessante Part.
![:]](https://goldseiten-forum.com/wcf/images/smilies/pleased.gif "Freude"){kind=small}
(wie alle Mützenträger!) und im Zweifelsfall auch objektiv und ausgewogen und einer der hellsten Köpfe hier; zusammen mit dem leider erschossenen Hasen 
Heilige sind nach katholischem Usus immer schon tot. Und dann wäre ich ja schon so weit wie der Erschossene. Aber noch habt ihr mich nicht los