Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

    Zuerst mal: Ich halte es auch für sehr wichtig, sogar für notwendig, dass auch Argumente gegen Gold und Silber hier im Forum diskutiert und gegebenenfalls bekräftigt oder entkräftet werden. Deswegen habe ich gar nichts dagegen, wenn sich auch Skeptiker (nicht nur unser User "Skeptiker" ;) ) zu Wort melden... finde ich sogar sehr wichtig, um die Ausgewogenheit und Differenziertheit des Forums zu ermöglichen.


    @ Skeptiker


    Zitat

    Bedeutsam ist nur, dass sie überhaupt verkaufen. Würden sie in absehbarer Zeit auf die Käuferseite wechseln müssen, würden sie kaum für ihre boomende Wirtschaft dringend benötigtes Silber verscherbeln.


    Wer sagt Dir, dass sie verkaufen? Zumindest gesagt haben sie das nicht, sie haben lediglich einen Mindestkurs genannt, unter welchem sie nicht zu verkaufen beabsichtigen...


    Zitat

    Wozu um die Ecke denken, wenn die offenliegenden Informationen plausibel sind?


    Sehe ich auch so. Nur: Macht es für die Chinesen irgendeinen Sinn, ihre allfälligen Verkaufsabsichten zu veröffentlichen? Gar noch indem sie öffentlich an einer Konferenz Mindest-Verkaufskurse nennen, welche tiefer als der Spot Preis sind? Würdest Du als Verkäufer einer grossen Position Silber so handeln (und damit riskieren, dass Du Dir mit der Ankündigung schon die Preise drückst und damit beim Verkauf einen geringeren Erlös machst)? Kannst Du mir erklären, wieso Du das für plausibel hältst?
    Ich halte das für nicht besonders plausibel.


    Zitat

    Auch der Vergleich mit der OPEC hinkt sehr:China ist nicht wie Saudi Arabien (die herrschende Clique) von den USA abhängig, es gibt keine Alternativen zu Silber und China fürchtet auch nicht wie die OPEC, bei steigenden Preisen Marktanteile an Nicht -Kartellmitglieder zu verlieren.


    Mein Opec-Vergleich bezog sich lediglich auf die Beobachtung, dass die Nennung einer Mindest-Verkaufslimite für einen Rohstoff den Marktpreis dieses nicht notwendigerweise negativ beeinflussen muss, auch wenn die Mindest-Verkaufslimite deutlich unter dem Marktpreis liegt.
    Vielleicht habe ich mich missverständlich ausgedrückt, aber ich wollte und will die Situation von China keineswegs mit der Opec gleichsetzen. Natürlich ist China nicht gleichermassen von den USA abhängig wie z.B. Saudiarabien und vor allem ist der Silberverkauf für China natürlich niemals auch nur annähernd vergleichbar wichtig wie der Oelverkauf für die Opec-Länder. Wie Patrone Lupo mit seinem Statement zu Recht bemerkte, liegen da finanziell Grössenordnungen dazwischen.


    Trotzdem ist es (theoretisch) natürlich möglich, dass die Chinesen mit so einem Statement den USA oder sonst wem entgegenkamen (gegen eine Gegenleistung selbstverständlich...). Gerade, weil die Silberverkäufe von China wohl eher als von sekundärer Bedeutung eingestuft werden.


    Im Uebrigen will ich weder Dich, Skeptiker, noch sonst irgendjemanden von Silberverkäfuen abhalten oder zu Silberkäufen ermutigen. Das sind alles Entscheidungen, welche jeder persönlich zu treffen hat und für welche sich jeder zuerst selbst eingehend informieren und mit der Materie befassen soll.
    Meine Gedanken, welche ich in den vorhergehenden Beiträgen äusserte sind weder Informationen, noch Behauptungen - nicht einmal Vermutungen - sondern eben: lediglich Gedanken (welche ich als Antwort auf Spielers Wunsch äusserte, dass wir unsere Gedanken zur Meldung posten sollten).

    ... und natürlich kann man sich noch einige Gründe mehr überlegen, rsp. natürlich kann diese Verlautbarung der Chinesen auch einen ganz anderen Grund haben, als die von mir erwähnten Möglichkeiten. Die erwähnten Möglichkeiten sind natürlich nicht die einzigen Möglichkeiten... ;)

    [Blockierte Grafik: http://wwwi.reuters.com/comX/images/reuters.gif][Blockierte Grafik: http://wwwi.reuters.com/comX/images/yahoo.gif]


    http://yahoo.reuters.com/finan…10-32-40_l14618276_newsml


    1-Union plans strike at Harmony Gold over sackings


    Tue Sep 14, 2004 06:32 AM ET


    By Eric Onstad


    JOHANNESBURG, Sept 14 (Reuters) - South Africa's National Union of Mineworkers (NUM) said on Tuesday 20,000 workers plan to start an indefinite strike at Harmony Gold (HARJ.J: Quote, Profile, Research) on Oct. 6 due to planned retrenchments of thousands of miners in the Free State.


    Zitat

    "The strike will affect all of the Harmony Free State operations and not only those earmarked for closure and retrenchments," a statement said.


    The NUM put the number of total retrenchments at around 4,000 but the Solidary union said another closure notice had been released, bringing the figure to 5,061 at four operations.


    "We just got another (closure) notice yesterday afternoon," said Solidarity spokesman Reint Dykema, who added that four shafts were involved in the restructuring exercise.


    Harmony marketing director Ferdi Dippenaar said the company had received a strike notice but hoped to resolve the situation before Oct. 6.


    "Negotiations are continuing," Dippenaar said.


    Harmony, South Africa's biggest domestic gold producer and the world's sixth biggest gold miner, has been struggling for months to improve profitability without shedding too many jobs.


    It signed a deal with unions in July to scale down activities at mines where costs were too high amid a strengthening rand that cuts income from exports.


    The deal stipulated that workers at closed mines would be deployed where possible at other operations or retrained.



    WORKING HOURS


    Longer working hours would be implemented at mines that remained open, which would increase the number of employees needed at those operations.


    Solidarity's Dykema said that when the agreement was signed in July, Harmony had indicated forced retrenchments would be limited to around 2,000.


    "Out of the blue they have given us notices of intention to implement forced retrenchments...it's a big disappointment, the jump from 2,000 to 5,000."


    He said Harmony issued notices to close Merriespruit 3 and Welkom 1 shafts, retrenching 951 and 540 workers respectively, and to partially close the Bambanani mine and Elands shaft, with job losses of 2,937 and 633 respectively.


    When Harmony released results in August, it identified six shafts that would be shut or partially closed, which had total production of 220,000 ounces per year out of the firm's total output of 3.3 million. The Bambanani mine was not on that original list.


    The costs at the six shafts are all over 100,000 rand per kg, with one nearly 180,000 rand/kg, compared to the current domestic gold price of around 85,000 rand/kg.


    Harmony Gold Mining Company Ltd went deeper into the red in the fourth quarter, posting a headline loss per share of 131 cents in the three months to end-June compared to a loss of 16 cents in the third quarter.


    Harmony shares, which have shed a quarter of their value this year, fell 1.1 percent to 79.70 rand by 0954 GMT, compared to a 0.4 percent fall in the gold mining index .

    Es muss schon einige einseitig farbenblinde User geben die in diesem Thread, über ihrer Ansicht nach negative Aspekte eines Gold, oder Silber Engagement diskutieren.


    Ulfur hat heute bereits ein Posting reingestellt, das beweist, nicht etwa nur vermutet, dass die Nachfrage nach physischem Gold in Indien trotz der in Dollar, und ebenso in der lokalen Währung Rupia stark gestiegenen Goldpreise, nicht nur ungebrochen ist, sondern zudem noch stark ansteigt. Indien ist auch nicht nur irgend ein Land ohne Bedeutung für den Gold Markt, sondern der grösste Gold Konsument der Welt, mit einem Goldbedarf der wie man lesen konnte, im ersten Halbjahr 04, um gewaltige 10% gestiegen ist.


    Diese Meldung ist nicht nur bullisch für den Goldpreis anzusehen, diese Meldung ist geradezu explosiv.


    Sie beweist ganz klar, dass im Gegensatz zu anderslautenden "Falschmeldungen" in der Presse, dass die Nachfrage nach physischem Gold gerade munter weiter stark ansteigt. Das alles bei einem bewiesenen, und nicht nur vermuteten Gold Produktions Defizit von ca. 1500 Tonnen Gold pro Jahr, bei einer gesammten Gold Weltproduktion von bestenfalls gerade einmal 2500 Tonnen Gold pro Jahr.


    Letze Woche hatte ich eine absolut bullische Gold Meldung aus China mit der Meldung des World Gold Council *WGC* in den Thread gestellt, die besagt, dass sich der private physische Goldverbrauch in China in den nächsten 5 Jahren auf 200 Tonnen verdreifachen wird. Das die geplanten offiziellen, oder vermuteten stillen Zukäufe der Chinesischen Zentralbank nicht in diesen 200 Tonnen mit enthalten sind, sei nur nebenbei noch erwähnt.


    Gestern die Meldung, dass Italien nicht daran denkt Gold zu verkaufen, und die einfache Rechnung, dass die gross angekündigten angeblich über die nächsten 5 Jahre geplanten Verkäufe von 500 Tonnen Gold pro Jahr, technisch gar nicht zu realisieren sind, also blos eine Lüge, und einen Goldpreis Manipulationsversuch darstellen.


    Einige Gold, und Silber Pessimisten, möchten gerne über positive, und negative Aspekte eines Investments in Gold, oder Silber diskutieren, wogegen ich überhaupt nichts einzuwenden habe. Dabei sollten aber diese drei extrem positiven Meldungen nicht einfach ignoriert werden, sondern diskutiert werden.


    Da dies jedoch nicht der Fall zu sein scheint, nehme ich an, es geht einigen gerade in der letzten Zeit sehr aktiv gewordenen Postern in diesem Thread gar nicht darum eine Diskusion pro, oder contra Gold, und Silber zu führen, sondern nur eine Diskusion mit negativen Inhalten ohne Fakten, und Belege zu Gold, und Silber zu artikulieren, oder sie sind ganz einfach nur farbenblind.


    Für Diskussionen, nur der Diskussion wegen, bin ich in diesem Thread nicht zu haben, dazu müsste ich erst einen neuen Thread eröffnen, doch dazu fehlt mir leider die Zeit.


    Gruss


    ThaiGuru





    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.hindustantimes.com/on/img/headers/Business.gif]


    http://www.hindustantimes.com/on/img/headers/Business.gif


    India's gold consumption rises 10% during first-half


    Press Trust of India


    Chennai, September 14


    Consumption of gold in India increased by 10 per cent to 343 tonne during the first half of 2004 as compared to 312 tonne during the same period last year.


    Demand for jewellery was higher by seven per cent in tonnage terms and 17 per cent in rupee terms in the first half of 2004 compared to the same period in 2003, a Gem and Jewellery Export Promotion Council release said, quoting a World Gold Council report.


    India is by far the largest market for gold jewellery and among the top five global markets for diamond. Jewellery is one of the largest consumer categories in the country, with an estimated market size in excess of Rs 45,000 crore, according to the report.


    The jewellery industry is one of the most fragmented and unorganised sectors in India. The market is dominated by over 300,000 independent jewellery retailers; most of them are small, one-store operations.

    @Th, @ alle


    Zunächst entschuldige ich mich für meinen ehrgeizigen, fast blasphemischen Usernamen, den ich mir bar aller Kenntnisse von Le Metropole Café, MIDAS u. ä. vor einigen Monaten angeeignet hatte, nur meinen Mythologiekenntnissen folgend.


    Bisher habe ich fast nur mitgelesen, finde das Board und den Thread hervorragend. Das Board muss unbedingt Skeptiker und PatroneLupos aushalten, denn sonst wird man 'betriebsblind'. Selbst der Sprott-Report zitiert Goethe, dass nicht immer Verschwörungen nötig sind.


    Inzwischen bin ich auch mit einem 2stelligen %satz ;)investiert, aber es bleiben mir auch nach monatelanger Lektüre immer noch 2 Fragen offen :


    1. warum sollen die Zentralbanken an einem niedrigen Goldpreis interesssiert sein ??


    Ich nehme an, dass die Berichte von Julian D. W. Phillips in
    http://www.authenticmoney.com schon diskutiert wurden. Sie sind zwar schon von 2002, aber wir wissen was seitdem geschah. Damals erklärte Phillips die Interventionen mit der Notwendigkeit den Marktteilnehmern die Möglichkeit zu geben die Shortpositionen glatt zustellen, um katastrophale Folgen zu verhindern.
    Soweit so gut, aber das war inzwischen möglich, an steigenden Kursen kann auch verdient werden und aus ersichtlichen Gründen müssen alle Goldbesitzer, also auch die ZBs an einem hohen Preis interessiert sein.


    Das Argument , ein hoher Goldpreis lässt das fiat money schlecht aussehen, genügt mir nicht. Politiker halten ganz andere Vorwürfe aus.
    Da hat Phillips 2002 ein ganz anderes Scenario aufgezeigt, was ein hoher Goldpreis für die Währungen bedeuten kann und wie sich die FED dessen wieder bedienen kann.


    2. Auch bei Phillips ist sehr gut beschrieben, was Roosevelt 1933 genial gemacht hat und das Gold in den USA praktisch konfiskierte. So etwas kann sich jederzeit, nicht nur in den westlichen Ländern, bestens koordiniert, wiederholen.


    Wie kann man sich dem mit physischem Gold entziehen ? Wir können ja nicht alle Sammlermünzen kaufen, die Barren vergraben, nach Thailand ziehen - auch nicht klar, ob das genügt - oder ähnliches! ?(


    Am Ende eines schönen (Gold)Tages: Grüsse von Midas

    'Das Gold dem Einzelnen zu entziehen, ihn seines Anspruchs zu berauben, ist ihr Bestreben, während er es vor ihnen zu verbergen sucht. Sie >wollen sein Bestes<< - - - daher nehmen sie es ihm. Sie horten sein Gold in tiefen Tresoren und zahlen mit Papier, das täglich an Wert verliert.'
    ERNST JÜNGER; EUMESWIL, 1977

    Zitat

    Original von Thom
    ... und natürlich kann man sich noch einige Gründe mehr überlegen, rsp. natürlich kann diese Verlautbarung der Chinesen auch einen ganz anderen Grund haben, als die von mir erwähnten Möglichkeiten. Die erwähnten Möglichkeiten sind natürlich nicht die einzigen Möglichkeiten... ;)


    Und am Ende wird wild spekuliert darüber, was die Chinesen vorhaben, aber nix Genaues weiß man ned.
    Vielleicht haben die Chinesen ja auf Wunsch der Amis einen Kommentar von Sir Alan Greenspan veröffentlicht, da weiß hinterher auch oft keiner, was er jetzt schon wieder gemeint hat.


    Mein Vorschlag: richtet ein Auge scharf auf die Chinesen bzgl. ihrer Silberaktivitäten und meldet alles sofort hier im Board (User schwejk, antreten!). ;)


    Grüße


    extrel


    Erst wenn diese Meldungen in der Bild-Zeitung stehen, wird Gold ein Renner in Deutschland. Die Inder haben sicherlich eine andere Beziehung zu Gold und Silber als wir - vielleicht sind sie, was Geld angeht, klüger als wir. Ich vermute, die Deutschen lieben immer noch ihre ach so starke D-Mark und begreifen einfach nicht, was die Stunde geschlagen hat.
    Ein Investment in Gold ist meiner Meinung nach in erster Linie der Versuch, sein Geld sinnvoll zu lagern u. a. auch, weil so Geld zinslos angelegt wird. Zinsen sind z. B. wegen ihres exponentiellen Charakters für den menschlichen Verstand nur schwer begreifbar und daher sehr gefährlich.


    Grüße


    extrel

    midas


    Zitat

    1. warum sollen die Zentralbanken an einem niedrigen Goldpreis interesssiert sein ??


    DARUM!


    Hier wurden ab 2001 massiv Dollars abgezogen, und der Dollar beginnt zu fallen!


    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/images/norcini091104a.gif]


    Nun werden die unglaublich riesigen Dollar Ströme von der FED umgeleitet, und der Dollar kann sich, für sehr viele überraschend, und fundamental nicht gerechtfertigt wieder stabilisieren, und das trotz einem weiter wachsenden riesigen Handelsbilanzdefizit, und immer noch grösserer und wahnwitziger Verschuldung der USA!


    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/images/norcini091104c.gif]


    Was denkst würde passieren, wenn sich z.Bsp. die Japanische Zentral Bank, oder andere Zentralbanken, durch stark steigende Gold Preise gezwungen würden sich für Gold als Alternative zu entscheiden?


    Solange sich die grosse Masse der Anleger jedoch nicht für Gold als Anlageform ihrer Vermögen zu interessieren beginnt, ich denke da jetzt im Wesentlichen an die westlichen Industrienationen, und sich mit ungedecktem Papiergeld, oder elektronisch aus dem Nichts geschaffenen Zahlen begnügen, solange werden die meisten Zentralbanken nichts gutes an Gold finden, weil Gold als DAS Geld schlechthin, von ihnen nicht "gemangt" und "vermehrt" werden kann, wie sie es mit *Fiat Money* praktisch ohne Limits bewerkstelligen können. Aber wie schon so oft gesagt nur so lange, wie die Preise von Gold kontrolliert und die Nachfrage, physisch gedeckt werden können.


    Es gibt noch viele weitere Aspekte warum hohe Gold Preise nicht im Interesse der Zentralbanken, und der Gold Bullion Banken liegen. Viele User hier im Board bei Goldseiten.de, ich selbst, und natürlich die GATA tragen täglich weitere Gründe, Belege, Analysen, Kommentare, und Zeitzeugnisse zusammen, um die von Dir gewünschten Antworten zu finden.


    Gruss


    ThaiGuru


    PS: Gestern hat ein interessierter, und zum Wirtschafts-, und Edelmetall Geschehen gut informierter User, in einem Nachbar Thread einen sehr wichtigen Grund dafür geliefert, warum die Banken Gold nicht mögen. Er hat ausgerechnet, dass die gesammten Schulden Deutschlands, wenn man sie in 500.- Euro Scheinen eng gebündelt, und gestappelt nebeneinander umlegen würde, einen Autofahrer 1000 Kilometer lang, etwa auf der Fahrt von Basel nacht Hamburg begleiten würden.


    Wäre toll, falls der besagte User diesen Beitrag, wegen seiner Eindrücklichkeit, hier nochmals posten könnte!

    midas,


    Das Gold der Zentralbanken wird ganz unterschiedlich bewertet,nie aber nach den Tages Fixing.Ich weiss zwar nicht in welcher Höhe es zur Zeit bewertet wird,ich glaube es waren so um die 140 Euro per Oz..Die Buba versucht den Wert möglichst konstant zu halten,da die Reserven statistisch geführt werden müssen,dort erhält das Gold dann einen Buchwert.Die Buba kann ja nicht täglich ihre Bilanzen dem POG anpassen.Es wäre zwar richtig,man vermeidet aber somit dass die Volatilität des Marktes im Buchwert niederschlagen kann.


    Goldpreis niederig halten?
    Seit Aufhebung der Golddeckung 1971,ist der Goldpreis um mehr als
    1000 % gestiegen,und zwar von damals gefixt 35 $ oz ,bis heute bei 400$


    Empfehle Dir den Thread über das Gold der BIZ zu lesen,hier im Board.



    Patrone,Skeptiker,


    traue euch beiden wesentlich mehr zu,und würde mich freuen,wenn auch ihr euch mit Postings,hier im Board beteiligen würdet,aber bitte auch mit Beiträgen,die den Usern hier Wissen vermitteln.Bitte nicht nur aktive Poster kritisieren,das ist doch bestimmt nicht euer Niveau,oder?


    Jedesmal wenn Gold und Silber fallen,fangen einige User an zu jaulen,da sie sich gerade die Finger mit OS verbrannt haben,kann das durchaus verstehen,das man dann versucht irgentwo seinen Dampf abzulassen,das passiert aber wenn Gier anfängt Hirn zu fressen.


    Grüsse


    Kalle

    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]


    http://www.lemetropolecafe.com


    September 14 - Gold $405.50 up $1.60 – Silver $6.19 up 2 cents


    Major Gold Shares Close To Making Significant Breakouts!


    Zitat

    With the exception only of the period of the gold standard, practically all governments of history have used their exclusive power to issue money to defraud and plunder the people...F.A. von Hayek


    GO GATA!!!


    Gold firmed up in early European trading, then sold off as we came into the Comex opening. Coming in slightly lower in New York, gold rallied on the following news:


    08:30 Q2 Current Account Deficit widens to $166.2B, a record; vs. expectations $158.3B
    Prior deficit revised to $147.2B from $144.9B.
    * * * * *


    WASHINGTON, Sept 14 (Reuters) - The U.S. current account gap widened again in the second quarter, growing to a record $166.18 billion, the Commerce Department said on Tuesday.


    The gap -- the broadest measure of trade and investment flows between the United States and the rest of the world -- came in well above analysts' expectations for a $159.35 billion shortfall and could fan concerns about the U.S. dollar and the nation's ability to continue to fund the deficit.


    The gap in the first three months of the year was also revised upward, to $147.16 billion from the previously reported $144.88 billion.


    -END-


    While few on Wall Street seem to be paying attention to monstrous US deficits of all sorts, the ramifications of the current account and trade deficits are ominous for the future. At some point, all of these dollars circulating in ever-increasing amounts will be pecunia non grata to some degree and the dollar index is going to tank.


    Gold actually rallied first this morning with the dollar falling a bit later. By day’s end the dollar closed at 88.72, down .10, while the euro only gained .03 to 122.54.


    However, The Gold Cartel knew full well that if gold shot up too much on the day, it would focus attention on the soaring current account deficit. PRICE ACTION MAKES MARKET COMMENTARY. Thus, each time gold looked like it was going to fly, the bad guys came in with "not so fast" sell orders. Our floor contacts were extremely bullish all session long, noting the buying was eating through the selling. If DEC gold went through $410, they felt gold would explode.


    Forget about it! The Gold Cartel would have none of it. Not only did gold not take off as it should have, the cabal added insult to injury by knocking it down $1 on the close as they do so often.


    Yesterday’s open interest rose a sizeable 5904 contracts as The Gold Cartel kicked in the next leg of its price-capping maneuvers. Each time gold begins to make a concerted effort to take out $410, the bad guys go into action to prevent it from doing so. This is what is so pitiful about those who refuse to acknowledge the price manipulation. Free markets DO NOT TRADE LIKE THIS. In free markets, sellers would back off, let gold fly and gradually sell into a sharp rally. In managed markets the agenda of the sellers is to do just the opposite. These sellers want to minimize excitement and prevent gold from taking out certain price points. To achieve their objectives, the price-cappers act in concert, which is where the violation of US anti-trust laws comes into play.


    Seems like silver was toyed with. After coming in lower, rose steadily, yet was taken back late in the trading session. The good news here is there are few spec longs. The open interest fell another 603 contracts to 81,660.

    Zitat

    Und am Ende wird wild spekuliert darüber, was die Chinesen vorhaben, aber nix Genaues weiß man ned.


    Das liegt in der Natur der Sache da die Chinesen wirklich sehr sehr spärlich mit Informationen umgehen und war wahrscheinlich auch der Grund für die von Spieler anfänglich vermisste Diskussion. Umso erstaunlicher ist es, wenn sich die Chinesen dann plötzlich doch zu Worte melden, zumal es gegen ihre Interessen wäre, sofern die Erwartung zukünftiger Silberverkäufe von ihrer Seite gerechtfertigt ist.
    Wenn man sucht und nachdenkt, findet man aber schon Indizien und kann m.E. durchaus einige plausible Vermutungen anstellen. Manchmal ist die Wahrheit erstaunlicher, als man es vermuten würde.


    Die Zukunft (rsp die zukünftigen Silberpreise) wird wohl einige Fragen und Uneinigkeiten beseitigen...

    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]


    http://www.lemetropolecafe.com


    The John Brimelow Report


    Rupee rising? Barclays propagandising?


    Tuesday, September 14, 2004


    Indian ex-duty premiums: AM $6.54, PM $5.14, with world gold at $403.30 both times. Ample, and a bit thin, for legal imports. This is basis Bombay, and the PM data might have been anomalous; the other Indian cities carried by Reuters maintained high premiums throughout the day.


    Both the Bombay stock market and the rupee closed at multi week highs again – the former being up 4.6% so far this month. Apparently "virtuous circle" of rising consumer confidence and rupee-appreciation-facilitated buying power is developing again in India, as previously occurred in weeks preceding the May election. Reuters carries the conventional story of Indian importers grumbling (not very seriously) about $400+ world gold, but more importantly several reports that the authorities are minded to let the Indian currency appreciate, to moderate inflation. (Many manufacturers around the world long for the Chinese would adopt the same policy to deal with a similar, but far more pronounced problem!) A rising rupee would, of course, sharpen the gold appetite of the world’s biggest buyer and be bad news for bears.


    Reuter’s weekly comment on Far Eastern premiums reports dealers moaning about poor volume, but that premiums are, curiously, unchanged. Shanghai indications are that modest premiums obtain there, and the Gulf seems to accepted the move above $400 unhesitatingly.


    Tokyo futures traders responded to the rise in gold by selling. Open interest slipped dropped the equivalent of 1,458 Comex lots on volume 118% higher than yesterday – equal to 22,093 Comex contracts; Mitsubishi remarks "Yen gold was capped by Public long liquidation" and indicates its’ proxy for the public’s long fell by 13.1 tonnes. Someone was buying in the Far East, however; not only did the active contract rise by 14 yen, but world gold stood 40c higher than the NY close at the end of the TOCOM day. (NY yesterday traded 40,005 contracts, with open interest rising an ominous 5,904 contracts.)


    Yesterday, in ScotiaMocatta’s words:


    "Gold was down about $2.00 …during the European trading session. Follow through offering by locals forced gold to a session low of 398.90/399.40…New York dealers changed to the bid side and quickly took the price back above 400.00 as locals rushed to cover their short positions…then…funds came into the market on the bid side giving the metal a boost. Gold went into a steady climb topping out at 404.80/405.30, as dealer selling was evident. The dealer offering continued right till the close forcing gold back to 403.80/404.30."


    In other words, unexpected buying squeezed the shorts until a large seller stepped in. The size of the open interest increase suggests significant selling had to be done: and it is not surprising to see a modest $2.30 rise in NY today has apparently required volumes 50% above yesterday.


    Kamal Naqvi, the gold commentator at the perennially bearish UK bank dealer Barclays has given an interview forecasting $370 gold in six months. He bases this on a view that the dollar may appreciate somewhat, and on


    Zitat

    " a poor physical market…Naqvi said supplies were also abundant, adding the surplus in 2003 was the largest in many years as miners held many years of inventories."


    Even presuming the peculiar last phrase to be a misquote, this assessment of the physical market is curious. Quite establishment commentators agree that trade has been robust this year. HSBC for instance. In a report also out today, says


    Zitat

    "…the latest statistics from the World Gold Council and GFMS show that the physical market has adjusted to the higher price level, with the market in deficit in the first half of this year by around 140t…the physical market looks set to be in deficit for the year as a whole, and will probably remain short through 2005."


    There is a view on the sell side that research should be classified as client entertainment. As a useful column by Caroline Baum today details, there is hard statistical evidence that economic news headlines could be considered propaganda.


    http://quote.bloomberg.com/app…ist_baum&sid=aWChP7NsVIrs)


    Maybe this is where Barclays work belongs.


    Propaganda, of course, can work.


    JB

    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]


    http://www.lemetropolecafe.com


    CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH


    The US financial markets remain in lockdown/prop up mode. Serious volatility has disappeared. Treasury bonds were up 5, the DOW rose 3 to 10,318, the DOG gained 5 to 1915, gold was capped and the dollar was little changed. You can almost hear the PPT counting down the days until the November US elections.


    The geopolitical/financial market news stinks:


    08:30 Aug. Retail Sales reported (0.3%) vs. consensus (0.1%); ex-Autos reported 0.2% vs. consensus 0.2%
    Prior Retail sales revised to 0.8% from 0.7%; ex-Autos revised to 0.3% from 0.2%.
    * * * * *


    NEW YORK, Sept 14 (Reuters) - Confidence in the U.S. economy weakened slightly, according to a survey on Tuesday that also indicated some consumers are beginning to question whether the government's economic policies are working,


    Investor's Business Daily and TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence said their economic optimism index fell in September to 54.3 from 57.7 in August. A reading above 50 indicates optimism. –END-


    The situation in Iraq continues to deteriorate in almost every way imaginable. No one seems to care what is really going on in our economy, or in their country.


    9/14 KIRKUK, Iraq - Saboteurs blew up a junction where multiple oil pipelines cross the Tigris River in northern Iraq (news - web sites) on Tuesday, setting off a chain reaction in power generation systems that left the entire country without power, officials said.


    http://story.news.yahoo.com/ne…4/ap_on_re_mi_ea/iraq_oil


    -END-


    Crude oil is all over the place, due to Hurricane Ivan and the Iraq mess. After being crushed on Friday, it rallied back to finish the day at $44.65 per barrel.


    GATA’s Mike Bolser:


    Hi Bill:


    The Fed added $6.75 Billion in temps today Sept 13th 2004, an action that pushed the repo pool up to $60.564Billion. The pool keeps setting new highs and the DOW is being dragged kicking and screaming up with it. If we look closely at the DOW 30-day ma we can see it turning up from a recent low. Look back to the last time the pool was at a peak high (Dec 2003). The DOW was running at 10, 300 and the red pool ma was $40B, but today the pool's moving average is far higher at $50 and the DOW still hasn't reacted well. This shows us that the DOW is sluggish and unresponsive to support mechanisms that produced results in the past.


    A savvy observer who called yesterday thinks that the DOW (with its repo support) may make it back up to 10,750 but run into HEAVY selling at that level which will prevent any further rises. Time will tell but this view may be the one to watch. A DOW launch to its previous high (11,750) would have to be fuelled by some kind of HUGELY positive event and I don't yet see one on the horizon.


    Washington Agreement Shrimpfest


    Make no mistake about the Italian Central Bank "NO GOLD SALE" development, it is VERY big and IF it holds through the WA formal announcement, the Fed will be hard-pressed (as Bill M has so faithfully reported) to replace the lost Swiss bullion WA contribution. It seems that Italy has been infected by the Bundesbank's gold retention disease. The Fed wants the world to believe that only diseased madmen would want to keep their gold. We ALL should be so afflicted. Watch closely in the coming days for signs of Fed frustration, a stray comment here...an angry reaction there. They will be detected...but


    only by the very observant, closely watching the primary dealers and their media marionettes.


    DIVG


    My metric has turned temporarily flat as noted last week from its August 17th low but may be running higher. I'll get a better look at NOON but so far things are steady with a very low probability of a turn back down for gold. More later...


    Ivan and His Departed Friends


    The effects of Hurricanes on tourism in Florida have been devastating. The now moribund cruise season, the theme park desertion and the European no-shows at Florida's beaches have contributed to a bleak economic "soft spot". Draconian security barriers and surly customs officials serve to inhibit visitors here and everywhere else in the US. On the other hand, plywood and generator sales are booming. Even with the storm raging on a forecast track to the West of Tampa, resting easy is VERY difficult until the monster is well NORTH of us.


    Offshore Banking


    Cayman Island was crushed with sustained 120MPH winds and there are many international banks there with huge offshore daily transaction capacity that is idle at the moment. Even if their generators are running the bank operators live in dwellings away from their offices and the damage to those dwellings must be severe. We can only guess as to the effect on Cayman-based derivatives operations. In the aftermath of 911 the banking system was badly hurt by the lack of aircraft cancelled check deliveries. The Fed's repo machine was on high output to compensate. Will they do it again? So far today the repo add was predictable and not too large.


    Finally the oil and gas platform operations are all but 100% curtailed in the Gulf of Mexico with no gas or oil flowing as of the close yesterday. This WILL have an effect on the oil and gas inventories going forward. We can estimate that a minimum of one week's energy losses will be recorded.


    Ivan and his evil ancestors have already dented the US economy. A BIG clue to the seriousness of the impact is the ABSENCE of commentary on it in the mainstream Wall Street press.
    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++


    The Russian preparations for Beslan retaliations continue and they remain livid over the West's harboring of Chechen terrorists. Expect a bombing and or commando run into Georgia soon.


    Tuesday, September 14, 2004


    By Any Means Necessary
    By Pavel Felgenhauer


    http://www.themoscowtimes.com/…2004/09/14/008-print.html


    After a meeting in Moscow last week with NATO's supreme commander in Europe, General James Jones, chief of the General Staff General Yury Baluyevsky said that Russia was ready to carry out preemptive strikes against terrorist bases "anywhere in the world."


    But Ivanov and Baluyevsky are clearly contemplating a different scenario. In the past, Russia has frequently bombed Georgia without admitting responsibility, meanwhile accusing Georgia of harboring Chechen terrorists.


    END
    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++


    The outlook for gold is very bullish looking only at my metrics and factoring in the Washington Agreement apparent developments. Things can change and we must always be ready for ambushes but the time to make a move is now.


    Mike


    From a fellow Café member:


    "I also attended the LV Gold show. While it's true that the Sprott Report (and the Blanchard suit!) were not the hot topics one would hope, the Sprott report did come up in more than one conversation. Oddly enough, it seemed like the geologist, techie types were the best informed."


    Actually, I am not surprised. When GATA was first formed, many geologists were without work because of the price suppression scheme. Exploration was a no-no back then because of the low gold prices. A few of the early members of the Café were geologists who wanted to understand what was really going on and why they were out of work. Most were quick studies and realized in short order that GATA was correct. This also gave them hope they wouldn’t be unemployed forever, as we explained why we were all so bullish and why.


    Chuck checked in last evening:


    Sorry for my lack of input. My job has taken up so much energy that I haven't had a chance to really think things out and convey them to you. I really admire your perseverance day in and out. It takes a real Don Quixote to stay so focused. And you are a modern day Don.


    Just read your Midas. Contrarily, I found the report from Las Vegas very encouraging. If everyone is so complacent, we must be here. I am not at all surprised by the lack of interest in the Sprott work. Remember, as far as I know, there is only Ron Paul who has an interest among the lawmakers in DC. We are living in comatose times just as in 1929 when no one saw it coming. The autopsies were performed much later. Today, many are being done beforehand as in Midas.


    The notable thing is that this time it's much more obvious and there is so much more evidence. But everyone wants the party to continue and the music never to end, so they refuse to consider anything other than the banal take on the economy and everything related to it. That is why even the gold people don't consider the GATA and Sprott position. It's easier being fed through a tube. We're America! How can anything ever go wrong? It will happen and it will change the world's landscape forever. Thanks for your zeal for truth and justice. Your friend, Chuck


    Canada’s Wall Street Journal came out with a front page business section article on John Embry and the Sprott Special Report, "NOT FREE, NOT FAIR: The Long-Term Manipulation of the Gold Price", which was circulated in toto this morning by email to Café members:


    Price of Gold Manipulated, Embry Says;
    Central Banks Dumping; Sprott Manager
    Ruffling Feathers on Bay Street Again


    Drew Hasselback
    Financial Post (National Post), Toronto
    Tuesday, September 14, 2004



    John Embry, one of Canada's best known gold bugs, is ruffling some feathers again in the otherwise staid corridors of Bay Street.


    A couple of weeks ago he started circulating a report that details his belief the gold market is manipulated. It's a remarkable paper, given that it's rare to see any veteran member of Canada's investing establishment go public with such a potentially controversial position….


    -END-


    For the entire article:


    http://www.canada.com/national…inancialpost/investing/st
    ory.html?id=b7c0524a-f822-4d75-a02f-4edf7c80daba&page=1


    -END-


    While this article was a pleasant one, I was looking for something like the Wall Street Journal might do on something so significant and groundbreaking – like 10 times more extensive than this story and a review which covered the features of the report in great detail, including those with opposite points of view, accompanied with their reasoning and supporting facts.


    Dennis Gartman, who is widely followed by many financial institutions, returned from the LBMA Conference held in Shanghai. His latest this morning in regards to the Sprott Report and GATA:


    ON GOLD BUGS AND NET
    SHORTS:


    The gold bugs are a strange lot, really.


    They see conspiracies everywhere and at all times. If the government is not conspiring against the public, then business is conspiring against the government, or business AND the government are conspiring against the public, and if not that, then all three are conspiring against ghostly, foreign forces that are set to wage some sort of economic war against the country. We see this as a wondrous waste of time and money as they try to prove the merits of gold ownership based upon conspiracies, far and near, visible and invisible. However, as long as they do no damage and stay within their small sphere of influence, they have the absolute right to make their case and move on [Ed. Note: That having been said, we are always concerned when we write about the gold bugs because in the past we have gotten some of the most disconcerting threats from them... including phone calls at odd hours; e-mails threatening harm; name calling, et al. We trust today's article will draw nothing more.].


    Having been taken to task rather often by the gold bugs, we thought we'd take the time to read a report put out by Sprott Asset Management of Toronto, Ontario, that has been much in the news amongst the gold bugs of late for having "proved" the case that GATA puts forth. GATA, as our clients should know, argues that there is a vast conspiracy amongst the gold bullion dealers, the Wall Street trading houses and the various governments of the West to keep gold prices down.


    The Sprott paper is rather weighty, and we decided to take it with us on our long flight to Shanghai recently in order to read it cover-to-cover. We did, and we took notes at length.


    We disagree with this report in its entirety, although we do admire the sheer volume of the work done. Under normal circumstances we would call this yeoman's work and applaud the endeavour, but this is not a normal circumstance. We could, time permitting, site passage after passage with which we disagree. However, our major point of contention is simply this: it is odd that the major analysts supporting GATA's thesis are really rather few, and they include Mr. Frank Veneroso, Mr. Reg Howe, Mr. James Turk and Mr. Bill Murphy, GATA's founder and guiding spirit. These are fine, educated, deeply intelligent men who have done stunning amounts of work on the details of the gold market. We are especially fond of the work done by Mr. Veneroso and we do indeed rather like Mr. Murphy, for he is a wonderful conversationalist and Renaissance man. What we find odd is that Sprott, having taken GATA's position that there is indeed a conspiracy amongst the leading central banks, broking and trading firms, relies almost solely upon these other analysts who hold to the same thesis to prove the thesis. Page after page, footnote after footnote, textual citing after textual citing is done ontologically; each cites the other; each uses the other's facts and figures; each believes the other is right and each "proves" each others proof by the proofs of the other. We had hoped to see independence amongst the citations used in Sprott's paper, for in using independent sources we might well have been willing to listen and to accept their analysis. However, in 68 pages of text, Mr. Veneroso, Mr. Howe, GATA and Mr. Turk are cited a total of 87 times [Ed. Note: Due to some minor printing errors in the text we used, some of the notations were garbled and so we may be off perhaps 2-3 citations in either direction... a variance which we think shall make little if any difference to our case.] .


    Further, we take issue with the manner in which this report always seems to use the terms "may" or "might" while making its case. For instance, on p. 58, the report notes that


    As James Turk suggested in Behind Closed Doors,
    the leasing of gold by another nation may in fact
    be directed by the United States [Ed. Note:
    emphasis ours.]


    "May... be" and "is" are materially different of course (unless you are William Jefferson Clinton) and the Sprott report seems always to pile on the references to possible machinations taken by the US government, the sheer weight of which it hopes shall make its case. It does not. Further, the Report consistently tries to make the case that the US Government has lied regarding the use of the Exchange Stabilisation Fund, where it believes that the government hid gold and used it for market manipulation. It cites a statement by US Treasury Sec'y O'Neill that the Treasury Department


    intensively monitors foreign exchange markets
    and maintains continuing monitoring of gold
    markets and related developments.


    GATA and Sprott will argue that "monitoring" equates to manipulation. We shall maintain that "monitoring" is precisely that: monitoring... watching... learning from the markets what the market is saying to Treasury and the Fed concerning policies that are either in place, or may be put into place. But "monitoring" need not be real action, and likely is not.


    We've not the time to go on this morning, and although our case is perhaps not made with the same sheer volume that the Sprott report has weighed in with, we trust it is made. Conspiracies rarely exist, and when they do, they are far more often than not exposed. GATA's followers are legion and very often they are wise. Would that they spent their collective wisdom on worthier efforts. There are times when it is appropriate to be bullish of gold; there are times when it is not. To GATA and the gold bugs, it is always time to be so. To us, gold is merely another asset bidding for our capital, and it is there that they fail.


    -END-


    Dennis Gartman is to be commended for reading the report, which is more than most gold producer CEO’s have done as far as I can tell from the feedback I am receiving. And, also to his credit, he is willing to put his thoughts down in writing. However, the content of his response to John Embry and Andrew Hepburn’s brilliant report is sorely lacking. I am sure he would expect nothing less than this sort of response from me:

    [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.goldseek.com/news/LemetropoleCafe/lmpc.jpg]


    http://www.lemetropolecafe.com


    CARTEL CAPITULATION WATCH


    Mr. Gartman is flat out wrong when he states "conspiracies rarely exist." Price-fixing cases, which are conspiracies by definition, are a dime a dozen and have become commonplace over the years. We all know about the diamond and oil cartels. Then there have been those revealed in the copper, vitamins, and drug industries, among many others. For example:


    *03 Sep 2004 10:22


    EU slaps 222 mln euro fine on copper cartel


    BRUSSELS, Sept 3 (Reuters) - The European Commission on Friday imposed a 222.3 million euro ($271.1 million) fine on a group of copper pipeline makers for conspiring to fix prices and set territories for copper plumbing pipes


    "Because of the companies' illegal behaviour, EU consumers paid more for plumbing replacement work or when buying a house than if the healthy forces of competition had been at play," EU Competition Commissioner Mario Monti said in a statement.


    Two of the companies fined were Finland's Outokumpu Oyj and privately held Wieland-Werke of Germany. Outokumpu was fined 36.14 million euros and and Wieland-Werke was fined 27.8 million euros.


    -END-


    *Ecologist, The: Vitamin Fixing - price fixing cases - Brief ...


    *Federal Courts Brace For Foreign Price-Fixing Cases

    By: Richard J. Wegener , Antitrust Litigation Group
    Do foreign purchasers injured only by the "effects" on foreign commerce of a U.S. based price-fixing conspiracy have standing to assert Sherman Act claims in U.S. courts?


    *Dechert LLP : Lawyers of Pennsylvania; - Representing defendant in the Graphite Electrode price-fixing cases, multi-district class actions (ED Pa.); - Representing defendant in the ...


    *Dickstein Shapiro Morin & Oshinsky LLP
    Dickstein Shapiro Morin & Oshinsky LLP provides representation to both plaintiffs and defendants in major price-fixing cases (eg, citric acid and lysine cases ...


    *Hot Topics
    The Federal Trade Commission's preliminary investigation of Nine West Group, Inc., is the latest in a string of price-fixing cases the agency has pursued ...


    http://www.napaa.org/news/hottopics.aspx - 69k - Cached - Similar pages


    Mr. Gartman barely mentions any specifics of the Sprott Report and only comments on what he interprets fitting into his long-held opinion of the gold manipulation matter before he read this report. How could he not agree with just ONE of the findings in the report? How about this one again:

    *(From the Sprott Report, page 25) "For the fourth quarter of 2001, GFMS (Gold Fields Mineral Services) reported that the delta-adjusted hedge book stood at 2924 tonnes. At this point, the notional value of gold derivatives reported to the BIS was $231 billion. However, as of December 31, 2003, the BIS reports gold derivatives of $344 billion. Producer hedging, meanwhile, declined from 2001 to reach 2166 tonnes at year-end 2003. ***


    There is no way these numbers can be reconciled without an understanding an enormous amount of central bank gold was surreptitiously mobilized to suppress the price. In other words lent/swapped gold, which had nothing to do with hedgers and their corresponding derivatives, was put into play causing the BIS derivatives numbers to rise even as the gold producer hedgers were reducing their short positions. I challenge Mr. Gartman, or anyone else in the gold industry, to prove that is not the case.


    He fails to acknowledge the firms GATA says are manipulating the gold price are his very own clients. This lack of disclosure taints the credibility of his opinions.


    Anyway, thanks Dennis G. As long as we can get ‘em talking out there, we are making some progress.


    US Inflation input:


    Bill;

    On the "there is no inflation" theme. This article slipped in under the radar. US house prices have had the largest one year increase since the 1970's. Second quarter of 03 to second quarter of 04 - 9.36 % annualized. For the most recent quarter - 8.83 % annualized. Perhaps all the lucky homeowners should join hands and sing a big alleluia chorus to Ben Bernanke and his money laden helicopters and an extra special thanks to God that Producer Prices are falling. Story at the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight website:


    OFHEO HOUSE PRICE INDEX SHOWS LARGEST ONE YEAR INCREASE SINCE 1970’s -


    (September 01, 2004)


    best,
    Rob


    Another pathetic response from the gold producer executive world:


    Subject: Re: questions from a shareholder


    Our focus at XYZ Corp. is, and always has been, on finding and developing mineral deposits. We really haven't spent any time on matters related to gold itself, so we don't belong to any organizations such as the WGC. While many of us who work at XYZ are "gold bugs" to some extent, we don't put much time into studying the issues concerning the price of gold. John Embry is a major supporter of XYZ, and has been for some time, so we are well aware of his views but I have not read through his report, nor do I plan to put it on our web-site. I don't want to put XYZ in the position of endorsing matters over which we have no influence, such as the price of gold. I personally believe that gold could go much higher but I have been around long enough to know that anything can happen. I prefer to highlight the things that we can control, such as our properties, land position and other corporate developments.
    I hope that answers your question.


    M W
    CFO, XYZ Ltd.


    ***


    It sure does answer Café member’s questions of how The Gold Cartel has been able to pull off their gold scam as long as they have. One of the points to spreading the word out there about the Sprott Report IS to have it be put up at various gold firm’s web sites. Let the shareholders at least have the information so they can responsibly form their own opinions and make up their own minds.


    I have suggested all Café members who are gold shareholders contact their respective firms about the Sprott Report and, in certain cases, about the ineffectiveness of the World Gold Council. I could do no less.


    This morning I spoke with Golden Star Resources management at length on these issues as well as on some company specific ones. Needless to say, they have been bombarded with emails and phone calls on these issues. They are formulating a response to many of you and the one I heard was very satisfactory for the time being for various reasons. Most importantly, they have taken your concerns to heart and are responding, unlike so many other gold companies which won’t deal with these significant subjects at all. One point as far as the WGC is concerned, Golden Star is a junior member paying 45 cents per production ounce (still a lot) versus the $3 a Newmont is paying.


    I also took the time to discuss Golden Star’s lackluster share price action these past months. This morning they announced $600 worth of shelf registrations which disturbed some as they feared more immediate share dilution. However, this is not a near-term issue in the sense this filing was done in case Golden Star wants to maneuver in the future to make acquisitions, or expand their exploration efforts when the gold price takes off. If the registration is approved (and their quiet period ends), they will be free to operate in an expeditious manner down the road without waiting for SEC approvals which could slow up development and potential deals.


    Golden Star ($4.48, up 5 cents) should produce 300,000 ounces of gold next near and 410,000/450,000 in 2006. Their exploration projects are extremely promising. CEO Peter Bradford has always delivered and is a stand-up guy. Yesterday in a round-table discussion with Jim Puplava, John Embry and James Turk, I referred to GSS as my number one gold producer pick. Still think that way. For the moment, GSS has no momentum, unlike last year when it was flying. No reason the " BIG MO" won’t come back again, sending the share price of Golden Star Resources flying in 2006.


    The gold shares were firm all day long until the close when they sold off. The XAU rose 1.68 to 94.70 and the HUI leaped 4.71 to 208.74.


    http://bigcharts.marketwatch.c…&o_symb=hui&freq=1&time=8


    The HUI closed right on its long-term downtrend line. Both indexes are close to blowing through resistance and breaking out, which could lead to significant advances. The reasons to be in the gold and silver shares have never been better, yet, very few are paying attention.


    GATA BE IN IT TO WIN IT!


    MIDAS


    Appendix


    Dear Bill,

    Having been a subscriber & a very keen follower of the Café for quite a few years now, I did contact you about 18 months ago with the details of our 40 years experience in the Gold Bullion & Rare Coin market in Australia, and the services which Jaggards offer, and in turn which you very kindly published for the advice of your readers. Having been the Official Agent for The Perth Mint in Australia since 1986 for all their products we would like now to inform your readers also that we have been offering the Perth Mint Certificates Program since it commenced, at the best possible daily prices for precious metals, which can suit the many buyers who don’t need to take physical possession, and also without any storage charges.Since the commencement of this program we have processed many orders for clients both large and small from all over the world in the Gold & Silver Certificates. This program seems to be growing in popularity and the purchasing process can be done very simply through our website. Having 40 years experience in Gold Bullion & the Gold Coin market, helps us to give quality service and look after the requirements of investors from any country in the world .


    Keep up your great work at the Cafe, which we have recommended to many of our customers both local & international to help them get a better understanding of these markets.


    Robert Jaggard


    http://www.jaggards.com.au
    Email: info@jaggards.com.au
    Level 8/ 74 Pitt Street, SYDNEY
    NEW SOUTH WALES 2000. AUSTRALIA
    Mail: PO Box 345, Royal Exchange NSW 1225 AUSTRALIA
    Telephone (61 2) 9230 0886. Fax (61 2) 9230 0996


    Jaggard's est 1963


    The Leaders in Rare Coin and Banknote Investments.
    Showroom: Level 8/74 Pitt street,
    Sydney, NSW, Australia.
    PO Box 345, Royal Exchange,
    NSW, 1225, Australia.
    Phone- (02) 9230 0886
    Fax (02) 9230 0996.
    info@jaggards.com.au

    Thom
    Ich empfinde deinen Diskussionsstil als sehr sachlich und angenehm und auch inhaltlich hat es mich weiter gebracht, mit meiner Kritik ("ausgrenzen") warst auch nicht du gemeint und auch weniger der Umgang mit mir.
    Zu den Chinesen: Ich meine, allein die Kursentwicklung zeigt, dass sie nicht auf der Käuferseite stehen. Deswegen, wozu spekulieren über Sinn und Zweck ihrer Äußerungen, wenn die Kursentwicklung im Einklang mit ihren Ankündigungen ist?


    @ Thai+andere, ich habe auch nie gesagt, dass ich NICHT in Gold und Silber investiert bin. Wozu sollte ich hier mitlesen und mitdiskutieren, wenn ich nicht ein Interesse an der Anlageform hätte? Ich bin nur ein wenig desillusioniert, was die baldige Silberpreisexplosion betrifft, eben aus den besagten Gründen, weil die Chinesen offenbar momentan und in absehbarer Zeit aus den von mir genannten Gründen nicht auf der Käuferseite stehen werden (meiner unmaßgeblichen Meinung nach).
    Ich habe nur geschrieben, dass ich mein Silberengagement REDUZIERE und erwähnte die Papiergeldinflationierung.
    Aber die Friede-Freude -Eierkuchen Tour ist ein wenig langweilig, also zur Anregung noch ein paar Punkte, die bei dem Einen oder Anderen vermutlich die Adrenalinwerte in die Höhe schnellen lassen:
    Es gibt weltweit die unterschiedlichsten Anlagemöglichkeiten und auch bei Gold und Silber sollte man selbstkritisch prüfen, ob es nicht lukrativere Alternativen gibt, und wenn ich kritisch die Entwicklung der letzten Jahre analysiere, dann stelle ich fest, dass einige Aktien wesentlich besser liefen, mit Dollar-Puts lange Zeit mehr zu holen war, usw., um das Ganze jetzt auf die Spitze zu treiben, passable Gewinne bei den Edelmetallen brachten am ehesten (für diese Blasphemie muss ich vermutlich zum Exorzisten) DERIVATE, da in EURO gerechnet, die Gewinne bei Au und Ag marginal waren. So, jetzt ist es raus, ich weiß, die Krise kann schnell kommen, physische Ware kann hilfreich sein, sehe ich auch so, aber auch diesbzgl. habe ich durchaus ernste Zweifel, denn in einer echten Krise zählen möglicherweise nur Lebensmittel und ähnliches, und das Papiergeld taugt wenigstens noch als Brennmaterial oder als Klopapier.
    Und was Anlagealternativen betrifft, habt ihr schon mal darüber nachgedacht, dass es bei jeder geförderten Unze Au oder Ag ein Recyclingpotential gibt, im Gegensatz beispielsweise zu Erdöl, interessant zudem auch der Vergleich der vorhandenen Vorräte.
    Aber wozu analysieren,wenn die meisten es gar nicht hören wollen?
    Gruß, Skeptiker

    Aus dem wöchentlichen Smart Investor weekly:


    Vorsicht bei Edelmetallen


    Anders als im Heft zuletzt dargestellt, könnte bei den Edelmetallen auf Sicht der kommenden Wochen doch noch eine letzte Schockwelle nach unten anstehen und im Gegenzug eine deutlichere Erholung beim US-Dollar. Vor diesem Hintergrund ist die Reduzierung unserer Position in Silver Standard Resources um die Hälfte zu verstehen (sh. "Musterdepot"). Auf die Edelmetalle und den Dollar werden wir in einer Woche eingehen.


    Gruß
    Schwabenpfeil

    Die Börse ist wie ein Paternoster. Es ist ungefährlich,
    durch den Keller zu fahren.


    Man muss nur die Nerven bewahren !

    @ Skeptiker


    Zitat

    Zu den Chinesen: Ich meine, allein die Kursentwicklung zeigt, dass sie nicht auf der Käuferseite stehen. Deswegen, wozu spekulieren über Sinn und Zweck ihrer Äußerungen, wenn die Kursentwicklung im Einklang mit ihren Ankündigungen ist?



    Die kurzfristige Silberpreisentwicklung sagt relativ wenig über das Verhalten der Chinesen aus, da die Preise zwischenzeitlich immer wieder durch die Futuresmärkte, und da oft durch die Handlungen grosser Fonds bestimmt wird.
    Langfristig werden sich aber die zukünftigen chinesischen Handlungen sicherlich im Silberpreis zeigen; eine Reduktion der Verkäufe durch die Chinesen, z.B. falls die sie nicht mehr in der Lage oder nicht mehr willens sind, das jährliche Produktionsdefizit auszugleichen, hätte ohne Zweifel grössere Konsequenzen für den Silberpreis. Man wird sehen...


    Zitat

    Und was Anlagealternativen betrifft, habt ihr schon mal darüber nachgedacht, dass es bei jeder geförderten Unze Au oder Ag ein Recyclingpotential gibt, im Gegensatz beispielsweise zu Erdöl, interessant zudem auch der Vergleich der vorhandenen Vorräte.


    Dem kann man entgegenhalten, dass Öl in seinen Eigenschaften (z.B. als Energieträger) nicht einzigartig ist und langfirstig durchaus substituiert werden könnte - viele Eigenschaften von Gold und Silber hingegen sind einzigartig.
    Dazu kommt, dass die Anlage in Gold und Silber einiges einfacher ist als die Anlage in Öl, da man als Privatanleger für letztere entwederr einen grossen Tank zu Hause rumstehen haben muss, oder auf Banken und deren Anlagevehikel angewiesen ist (mit den bekannten Nachteilen bez. Bonität und Krisensicherheit, etc.). Ich gehe dabei mal davon aus, dass die wenigsten Privatanleger direkt an den Futuresmärkten handeln (und selbst da können abgesehen davon plötzlich die Spielregeln geändert werden,,, siehe Hunts).


    Zitat

    Aber wozu analysieren,wenn die meisten es gar nicht hören wollen?


    Mach ruhig weiter, ich denke es ist wichtig, wenn im Forum auch mal Gegenargumente gebracht werden - falls möglich, kann sie ja jeder zu entkräften probieren, der nicht damit einverstanden ist...

Schriftgröße:  A A A A A