Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

Good Morning Vietnam

spricht einiges für eine gute Woche für den PoG


Nicht nur in Vietnam, wo die ZB tatsächlich in den

letzten Wochen AU gekauft hat.

Vietnam ist nicht mehr im Krieg und sagt es frei heraus.

Zitat

Lao-tse: Wer weiß, redet nicht. Wer redet, weiß nicht

Tambok: "spricht einiges für eine gute Woche für den PoG"

Ulfur,

Lao Tse hat sein Leben lang darunter gelitten,

daß er ein Ergebnis der Maulbeerbaum-Zeremonie war.

[Blockierte Grafik: http://www.faz.net/imagecache/%7B5ABF5BC3-3A61-4185-B9D4-B21D35F8E35B%7Dpicture.jpeg]

Silver did the exact opposite to what was expected and predicted in the last update. Instead of breaking higher, it broke lower, breaking a key support level at $6.80 that was noted as important months ago. This breakdown is regarded as a potentially very serious development that opens up the risk of a plunge. The reason for this is that after many months of not declaring itself, silver appears to be finally breaking down from the huge triangle that began to form following the April 04 peak. The break of this support level can be seen in detail on the 6-month chart. The short-term oscillators are showing an increasingly oversold condition, and while this would normally be expected to lead to some kind of bounce, if silver goes into plunge mode a normal oversold condition won't save it.

Our stop, positioned for a long time beneath $6.80, has now been triggered, and we are theoretically out. Even if it does "turn on a sixpence" here and go zooming up, the danger of a plunge here is very considerable. Defensive positions are advised - remember you can always get back in again if it does climb above $6.80 again by a comfortable margin and stabilize.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/maund/maund082905.html

hi aladin,

habe gerade im eldorado der "crystallballs" (- 2. sept.`05) gewildert -
, ich zitiere:

"This week, continue to go short from Tuesday because big buyer will come on Katrina news but no need to worry and there is no need to cover the short. I will short on Tuesday and I will buy my short at $58.20 and you could also do that. Short term oil is down but in the long run, it will rise from mid December...."

beachte seine aussage:
"i will buy my short at 58.20 usd!!!

mein screen zeigt mir im schnitt heute 69 - 68 usd an !

vermute, da hat er sich schlicht um 10 points verdaddelt !?

sag mir die wahrheit

denn ich bin so bekloppt, u. lege bei 70 -71 (sollten wir sie noch sehen)
einen groschen short in den spotmarkt...

merci

(btw: meine usd/euro long ist bereits im plus....)

rollover

Der Guru hat mir heute eine mail geschickt.
Er hat seine ganze position in oil verkauft bei knapp ueber 70 Dollar und er ratet jeden die Kurve zu kratzen da es von nun an faellt.
Katrina hat ja diesen Anstieg verursacht heute, das war nun das high seiner Meinung.
Momentan ist es schon 2.80 USD unter dieser Marke gefallen, mal schaun ob er zumindest mit Oil recht hat unser Guru M.
Es wuerde mich nicht wundern wenn man bald sehr gute Daten der US Wirtschaft rausgibt, natuerlich sind die frisiert ,damit jetzt der Dollar steigt.

Gruss

XAX

Hoer gerade CNBC im Hintergrund, "The Fed is in trouble ".

Abhaengig von den Saudis, we are in a "Commodities Market". !

Bald drei Dollar per Gallon Sprit , sie geben nun weniger aus und die Wirtschaft spuert es dann.

Der Homeloan oben drauf, OOPS !

Kurz und buendig, ich dachte mir der Ami ist so oder so fertig wenn man ihm den SUV nimmt oder die Spritfresser teuer werden.

Dann noch den TV und Mc.Donalds weg, gibt ihnen den Rest.
Ein Bekannter sagte das 25 % der Bevoelkerung nicht lesen oder schreiben koennen,viele koennen nicht mal den Bundesstaat New Jersey auf der Karte zeigen.

Na ja, sie jammern nach Hurrican und teuren Benzin.
Wieder 25 Mrd. Dollar Dachschaden , bzw. Versicherungs.
Die kriegen noch mehr ab, nach Katrina kommen noch mehr Damen und blasen denen einen an den sie sich immer erinnern.
Die Erde raecht sich ,.... payback !
Leute kauft HomeDepo Aktien die verkaufen mehr Holz nach dem Hurrican.

Den Oilpreis kriegt man runter wenn man die strategischen Reserven frisiert bei der naechsten Meldung. Jimmy Carter, der Erdnussfarmer hatte den Trick schon gemacht wo Oil so teurer wurde.

Wie auch immer, es wird immer schlimmer.

The show has just began !

XAX

OIL

Oil and paper don’t mix too well. You can dry a wet piece of paper, but once you got oil on it, might just as well toss it out and get a new one. Stock certificates traded on the Dow are getting oil poured all over them, lately. Sure makes them burn better, but it detracts from their usefulness, somewhat.

It’s also

Rising Interest Rates.

Rising rates make companies pay more to borrow - and you already know how everything in this “new economy” is hocked up to the hilt. Heck, even the very currency we buy things with is based on nothing but debt.

So, now it costs more debt to get into debt deeper. Great ...

Bottom line: That makes it harder to get into debt to expand and make more “debt-with-which-to-pay-for-things,” so profit outlook and therefore stock valuations suffer. Darn! How about

Inflation
then?

Since nobody can afford to remember publicly what inflation really is (an increase in the stock of currency beyond what the economy can accommodate), policy makers and market shakers are fighting the wrong thing with the wrong tool. It’s like fighting fire with gasoline. Not very effective.

They say that higher oil causes inflation (they mean price inflation, normally the result of monetary inflation), so they need to raise interest rates to “nip it in the bud.” But oil keeps rising for reasons that are external to the US, and therefore not subject to control by higher rates. Darn, again!

What they are really doing is to fight inflationary expectations by raising rates. That can be effective, up to a point, because the public has been successfully re-educated to believe such nonsense.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/edit…_05/wallenwein082805.html

DER FONDS.com: Wo sehen Sie den Goldpreis am Jahresende?

Siegel: Ich rechne mit einem nachhaltigen Aufwärtstrend am Goldmarkt in den kommenden Monaten. Es ist davon auszugehen, dass der Goldpreis bis Jahresende um rund 20 Prozent zulegt. Zudem gehe ich davon aus, dass der Preis pro Unze bis Ende Dezember über 500 Dollar geklettert ist. Bis Ende 2006 sollte der Goldpreis sogar die 600-Dollar-Marke überspringen.

CPM predicts 42.4M ounce silver deficit

By: Dorothy Kosich
Posted: '29-AUG-05 15:00' GMT © Mineweb 1997-2004

RENO--(Mineweb.com) Forecasting an average silver price of $7.09 an ounce this year, a supply deficit of 43.4 million ounces, and stronger investor interest in the metal, New York-based precious metal and commodities consultancy CPM Group released its annual silver survey Monday.

Nevertheless, CPM cautioned that, for the silver market to retain the interest of new investors from the equity and fixed income markets, there must be more transparency "in the form of detailed, credible statistics and analysis" from a market that is "poorly understood and under-analyzed, in which obvious errors circulate as facts."

In its "Silver Survey 2005, " CPM asserts that "for decades there have been groups that have benefited from what economists call the asymmetrical, or inefficient nature of the silver market." When the market is impacted by wrong information, "investors, producers, users and others can position themselves to profit from the inevitable correction," according to the survey. While this situation may have benefited those who had access to strong market information and analysis, it has also discouraged new investors.

The study estimates that, overall, world mine silver production will total 527.3 million ounces this year, up 1.7% from 2004. Total supply is estimated at 774.3 million ounces for 2005 for a 3.2% increase. CPM forecasts that industrial demand for silver will total 805.7 million ounces, a slight increase of 1.4% over 2004. A deficit of 31.4 million ounces is predicted in the bullion market this year. When combined with coinage and changes in inventories, the study predicts an overall silver deficit of 43.4 million ounces in 2005.

CPM forecasts an average silver price of $7.09 per ounce for 2005, up 9.2% from 2004. "Taking a look at the silver price from a longer term perspective, it is clear that this price of silver remains low compared to its highs of 1979-1980, when it touched $50 per ounce," the study notes. Nevertheless, CPM asserts that "the price of silver may have further upside potential."

The single most important contributor to the rise in silver prices "may be that available investors of silver in bullion and bullion coin forms are reaching low levels," the study suggests. CPM estimated that bullion inventories are currently around 300 million ounces. Meanwhile, an extended period of strong fabrication demand, combined with current supply deficits, is consuming both reported and unknown inventories.

Meanwhile, CPM noted that while governments, particularly the Bank of China, sold about 10 million ounces of silver into the market in 2004, "few if any sales are expected this year."

Renewed interest in silver investment also contributed to the rise in silver prices. "As prices began rising over the past 18 months, some of the remaining stock holders have seen that silver prices can rise, significantly, and have decided to wait to sell until later, hopefully at a higher price. This has reduced the flow of silver from bullion inventories into the market, adding upward pressure to the prices," according to the study.

Institutional investors have become more involved in silver in 2004 and 2005, according to CPM. "For the most part, they have remained in silver futures, forwards, options, and other derivative products. Some have been purchasing physical silver, however. Several million ounces of silver are believes to have been added to professionally managed investment portfolios since the beginning of 2004," the report stated.

However, "most fund management companies continue to use silver mining and exploration company shares as their preferred medium for buying access to silver. Others will use futures and forwards, or will purchase silver-indexed debt issued by a bullion trading banks," the survey said. Meanwhile, CPM was not optimistic about the future of proposed silver ETFs due potential issues with regulators stemming from "the relative lack of liquidity in the silver market compared to the gold market."

CPM asserts that "basic economies dictate that the market will need to come back into balance. For this to happen, prices will have to rise sufficiently to stimulate increased supplies of silver to be developed and/or discourage fabrication demand." Also, due to price inelasticities on the supply and demand for silver, prices may have to rise and stay at high levels to bring the market into balance.

While CPM estimates that silver use will rise 1.4% to 805.7 million ounces this year, photography demand is "seen as falling sharply." Nonetheless, demand is rising in jewelry, silverware, electronics and other uses this year.

The study suggests that there may be "a net inflow of silver into transitional economies, specifically China, from the international market" this year. However, how much silver is actually moving into China isn't yet clear. CPM asserts that "big changes" are underway in the Indian silver market, which may reduce the future demand for silver. The most obvious change was that the Indian government began selling silver from its own inventories at the beginning of this year. Although the Indian Government announced it would sell 19.2 million ounces of silver in 2005, CPM suggested that the sales may be lower.

As India loses market share in industrial products such as chemical catalysts, and electronic plating salts and chemicals to China and other countries, this reduces silver use in India. "There is also a shift away from silver and gold objects as gifts, for example at weddings, in favor of imported manufactured luxury items," according to the study. Meanwhile, rural savings in the nation also appear to be shifting away from silver and gold. "

Nevertheless, CPM suggests that "China will continue to be a major source of silver supply and demand." In fact, the study assert that China will become a more significant silver miner.

The volumes of silver being traded on futures and options exchanges in New York, Tokyo and Chicago have risen so sharply that they now exceed the amount of silver being cleared across the London bullion market, according to CPM. Meanwhile two trends--less liquidity and a pulling back of shorts--may have helped "open the possibility of higher silver prices." CPM estimates that futures and options exchanges trading volume will exceed 32.72 billion ounces while the London Bullion market clearing volume will be 25.3 billion ounces this year.

CPM suggest that mine production will continue to decline by 2.5% this year to as low as 93.5 million ounces in the world's top silver-producing nation, Mexico. Peru may replace Mexico in the top spot with a record 101 million ounces this year. Australia will remain the third largest silver producer, followed by the U.S. and Canada. "Longer term, silver mine production is likely to rise," according to the study, which suggests 22 million ounces of new capacity could come on-stream in 2006 from six mines.

In late 2007, Apex Silver's San Cristobal mine will produce 22 million ounces annually when it comes on line. Barrick's Pascua Lama could produce 18 million ounces annually when it commences production in 2009.

Several new uses for silver are emerging, according to CPM. "Perhaps the most exciting and interesting is the use of silver as a shield for superconductive wire. ...the growth rate of silver use in superconductive wires may far outstrip any loss of market in the photographic sector going forward." However, CPM believes that silver use in photograph may fall 9.4% this year to 217 million ounces. Nevertheless, silver use in batteries and other electronic components may rise 5% this year to 112.1 million ounces, the survey predicts.

Nightmare Stew

Success is not the key to happiness. Happiness is the key to success. If you love what you are doing, you will be successful. ...Albert Schweitzer

GO GATA!!!

The Working Group on Financial Markets Goes Into High Gear was to be the MIDAS title. However, I could not pass up Nightmare Stew (see below).

There is no point waiting for gold to close to write this commentary as there is no hope The Gold Cartel will ALLOW the price to breach $440 and close above that level. Gold traded $440 on the bulliondesk last evening and again a few moments ago this morning. Each time the cabal took the price down. The fact that the CRB rose over 9 points in the early going was irrelevant. Everything is irrelevant in a rigged market except what The Gold Cartel is up to versus will there be enough physical market buying to take them out.

Each time GATA believes the blatant manipulation of the gold price could not get any more obvious, it does. This is beyond ridiculous. What happened in the US financial markets today ought to convince anyone with an open mind that not only is gold rigged, ALL the US financial markets are managed.

It began last evening with the dollar. The Friday high on the spot euro was 123.42. As brought to your attention in my MIDAS Sunday Special, the news for the dollar was bearish across the board. It was awful. The euro quickly took out the Friday high by a tick. That new high print was then taken down (very unusual in that time zone). After a rest, the euro made another high by a few ticks. That is when The Working Group on Financial Markets went into action, quickly taking the euro down 35 points from that high, for no reason other than their intervention. Not to rest there, they carried through today, taking the euro down sharply. The SEP euro closed down .60 to 122.35.

Why? Because The Gold Cartel wanted to make sure gold didn’t take out $440 and they wanted to shore up confidence in the US stock market, which was under severe pressure last evening (S&P down over 9 points).

This leads us to the rescue of the US stock market this afternoon which had broken key technical support on the opening. Ever since 9/11 the PPT has stepped in to prevent the public from selling out due to "fear" concerns. I must have mentioned this at least 25 times over the years. Today was as ludicrous as ever. While energy prices were all over the place, crude oil and natural gas still closed much higher.

What you have here is a massive Working Group on Financial Markets derivatives operation, set in motion to affect the daily activity of the major traders on Wall Street. To fight these Orwellians in the very short-term from a day trading standpoint has been a loser, which the PPT boys have made very apparent the past few years. To follow them in the long-term will prove to be calamitous. As mentioned for days, these cretins have eliminated the public fear factor as far as the American public's investment decisions are concerned. Thus, more and more individual decisions are made with the rationale that nothing can ever go really wrong. What a "nightmare" this will be when this concerted derivatives operation blows up, AND IT WILL!

The Orwellians operate on the "See Spot Run!" Dick and Jane principle. They realize the Planet Wall Street crowd will go along with market-rigging machinations while the public remains clueless. Thus, they can work over markets and Planet Wall Street will explain what occurred like they would to kindergarten kids and will not be challenged - just as kindergarten kids would not challenge a teacher. It is moronic, at best, yet time and time again we see how "PRICE ACTION MAKES MARKET COMMENTARY" rules the day and is never questioned by the mainstream.

The bottom line for us:

The more reason for the gold price to go up, the more The Gold Cartel swings into action to make sure it does not do so. This latest obnoxious ramping up of the dollar, when all the news was negative for days, is proof of point.

Also as mentioned the past week, gold will not go through $440 like a normal market, because gold is a rigged market. It will blow through $440 or not at all. Today, it was the latter.

Gold just closed DOWN on the day. Same comment from me - gold will never do anything until The Gold Cartel is routed. It was not to be today. However, their shenanigans have become off the wall. As irritated as I am at the moment, it still seems to me they are fighting against a tide as strong as Hurricane Katrina. More and more of the serious money in the world has to see this. More and more of them are gradually coming to know what GATA knows and that is bullish.

The gold open interest fell 5268 contracts to 324,802, while the silver OI lost 274 contracts to 121,397.

Houston’s Dan Norcini sent the following this morning with gold up $2 and the stock market rallying. His sentiments echo mine for the day:

Mornin’ Guys;
Don’t get me wrong when I say this as the very thought is too overwhelming to consider but a device could go off in an American city and the price of gold would go no where while the stock market yawns as long as these guys are around.

Another miraculous comeback from the S&P 500 futures and another miraculous comeback by the dollar.

If the stock market finishes Higher for the day, we might as well all hang it up since we will have encountered the very first one way market in the annals of economic history.

The most idiotic thing I have heard this morning thus far from the spinners is that the higher price of crude oil will act as a curb on economic activity thus curtailing demand for crude oil and thus this price hike which is the market’s response to the destruction of the rigs and pipelines in the Gulf is actually bearish for crude. How’d like that one?

Maybe that is this same reason the stock futures did their usual resurrection from the grave - "rising crude oil prices are bearish for crude oil since they will slow the economy curtailing demand for crude which will cause the profit margins of major corporations to rise thereby justifying buying stocks on the news since they are now priced way too cheaply at these levels. So you see that rising energy prices which cause economic slowdowns and are therefore bearish for crude oil are at the same time bullish for stock futures"….

There is no longer any intelligent life on this planet if this is the example of the kind of downright convoluted and perverse mental process that we can expect going forward.
Dan

@ Edel Man

Gratuliere zum Kaiser : :)) noch 1500 Beitraege und du stehst am Olymp.
Mich wuerde es interessieren auf wie viel physical Silber Warren Buffet noch sitzt. George Soros hat angeblich Anteile bei Apex Silver und Bill Gates ist bei PAAS drin. Warum wohl ??

Die koennten doch den ganzen Markt drehen wenn sie wollten aber wer weiss wie weit die noch in den Aktien investiert sind.

Gruss

XAX

Zitat

Original von Edel Man
Warren Buffet:
Der "Orakel aus Omaha"
Von unserem Korrespondenten LUZIAN CASPAR (Die Presse) 30.08.2005
LEGENDE. Warren Buffett, der legendäre Investor mit einem Vermögen von 40 Mrd. Dollar, wird diese Woche 75.
Eine Legende feiert Geburtstag. | (c)AP

WASHINGTON. Hat das "Orakel aus Omaha" den magischen "Touch" verloren? Ist das Goldhändchen des legendären Investors, der vom ländlichen Nebraska aus die Welt nach günstigen Investitionschancen absucht, heute nicht mehr ganz so geschickt? Fast könnte man das meinen. Spektakuläre Erfolgsmeldungen hat man von Buffett in den letzten Jahren nur noch selten gehört.

Stattdessen gab es einzelne Misserfolge, etwa bei Devisen-Spekulationen, und insgesamt eine eher müde Performance. Buffett's Holdinggesellschaft Berkshire Hathaway, die berühmteste und erfolgreichste Aktie aller Zeiten, hinkt bereits seit zwei Jahren hinter dem S&P-Index hinterher und liegt seit Monaten unverändert bei rund 2800 Dollar. Für den Star-Investor ist dies blamabel.

Ähnliches hat man freilich schon erlebt. In den Jahren 1998 und 1999 entwickelte sich Berkshire Hathaway auch enttäuschend: Während viele andere Aktien im "Overdrive" waren, trabte die Buffett-Aktie wie ein lahmendes Ross. Vielleicht ist es normal, dass sich in Boomzeiten die Berkshire-Hathaway-Beteiligungen schlechter entwickeln. Denn Buffett und sein Gehilfe Charlie Munger sind bekannt dafür, sehr konservativ anzulegen. Buffett ist stolz darauf, dass einige seiner Lieblingsbeteiligungen Firmen aus langweiligen Branchen - etwa Möbel oder Teppich - sind.

Interessant ist, dass in den boomenden 1950er und 60er Jahren dies nicht der Fall war: Damals schlug Buffett alle Indizes um Längen. In den 60er Jahren, als Buffett seinen Ruhm begründete, war es offenbar noch möglich, mit seinem am "inneren Wert" der Aktien orientierten Anlagestil spektakuläre Erfolge zu erzielen.

Ein Blick auf die Entwicklung der Berkshire-Hathaway-Aktie ist generell interessant: In den 70er Jahren, als das Umfeld für die Weltbörsen schwierig war, konnte Berkshire Hathaway immer noch glanzvolle Ergebnisse verzeichnen. Das letzte Jahr, in dem Buffett den S&P-Index um mehr als 30 Prozent schlug, war 1981. Und in den 80er Jahren - erneut ein langer Boom - ließ Buffett die Gesamtbörse hinter sich - aber nicht mehr um Meilen. Seit Mitte der 90er Jahre hingegen ist die Performance sehr viel unsteter geworden. Gute Jahre und Flops lösen sich ohne erkennbaren Rhythmus ab. Vielleicht hat dies damit zu tun, dass die Börsen heute volatiler geworden sind.

Die Frage ist, ob Buffett überhaupt noch in der Lage ist, seinen konservativen, an der "Wert-Analyse" von Benjamin Graham orientierten Anlagestil durchzuhalten. Denn auch Buffett muss heute global investieren, nicht mehr nur in Amerika. Vor drei Jahren entschloss er sich, erstmals in den Devisenmarkt einzusteigen. Heute hat Berkshire Hathaway über 20 Mrd. Dollar in Devisenkontrakten investiert. Anfangs verdiente er Geld damit, aber dieses Jahr, als der Dollar sich erholte, resultierte ein Verlust von mehr als 800 Mill. Dollar. Ob Buffett genug Erfahrung hat, um auf den globalen Märkten zu reüssieren, ist nicht ganz sicher. Und man fragt sich auch, ob er bei seinen Vorstößen in exotische Märkte nicht mehr und mehr versucht oder gezwungen ist, kurzfristigen Trends zu folgen.

Bei der Aktionärsversammlung im Frühling wurde Buffett gefragt, ob Berkshire Hathaway mit Hedge-Fonds und "Private-Equity"-Fonds noch mithalten könne. Dies sei schwierig, gab Buffett zu, denn diese Investoren seien bereit, "fast alles" zu kaufen. Er wolle bei diesem Rennen nicht mitmachen, denn die Profitchancen seien zu gering. Aber diese Situation werde nicht endlos anhalten, fügte er hinzu.

Er verglich die Lage mit 1969, als Buffett seine "Partnership" auflöste, weil es seiner Meinung nach nicht mehr genug lohnende Anlagemöglichkeiten gab. Und mit 1998, vor dem Kollaps des Hedge-Fund "Long Term Capital Management", der die Asienkrise auslöste. Vielleicht behält Buffett auch diesmal Recht, und die Hedge Funds - gefolgt vom breiten Publikum - fallen auf die Nase. Dann wäre der Ruhm des Jahrhundert-Investors wieder hergestellt.

Alles anzeigen

schuldigung, aber was bitte hat das ganze mit gold und silber zutun

Zitat

"Aladin"
Mich wuerde es interessieren auf wie viel physical Silber Warren Buffet noch sitzt. George Soros hat angeblich Anteile bei Apex Silver und Bill Gates ist bei PAAS drin. Warum wohl ??

Warren Buffet kaufte 1997 130 Millionen oz Silber.
Damit hat er mal eben 1/4 der Jahresförderung gekauft. Soviel zu den "offizielen" Infos. Von Verkäufen ist mir bisher nichts bekannt.

Zitat

Edel Man
Nun Buffet und die Milliardäre.Hab mich das auch gefragt
Ich stelle mir vor, daß damit nicht nur das dubiose Geschehen der Comex bei Silber
--und Gold, wenn sie Ernst machten--völlig zusammenbräche,wenn sie nur wollten..........

Dito, wenn Buffett nochmals 130oz kaufen wollte, wird es eng für die Comex diese zu liefern

Zitat

Goldy
schuldigung, aber was bitte hat das ganze mit gold und silber zutun

s.o.