Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

A Special Big Picture with Jim and John

"A Triangle of Storms"

http://www.netcastdaily.com/fsnewshour.htm

@ALADIN/EDELMANN

Nach Katrina sind viele viele Amerikaner auf billiges Baugeld angewiesen.....das macht Alan vielleicht einen Strich durch die Rechnung bei seinen Tippelschritt-Zinserhöhungen.

Sollten diese nun eine Weile ausgesetzt bleiben wird dies den Dollar nicht gerade stärken

Hi Valueman

Da hast du Recht und der Markt nimmt das auch an, aber wer weiss was Alan wirklich macht. Am Montag Feiertag in Canada und US, danach kommen alle vom Urlaub zurueck und es geht dann richtig los. Naechste Woche wird bestimmt interessant auf den ganzen Maerkten und wird die Richtung anzeigen wo es nun lang geht.

Gruss

XAX

Rice defends Bush's response

04/09/2005 20:23

Mobile - Secretary of state Condoleezza Rice defended President George W Bush on Sunday against charges that the government's sluggish response to Hurricane Katrina showed racial insensitivity.
"Nobody, especially the president, would have left people unattended on the basis of race," :D. the administration's highest-ranking black said as she toured damaged parts of her native Alabama.

Some black lawmakers, the Reverend Jesse Jackson and other black leaders have complained bitterly about the slow response to the disaster, whose victims have been disproportionately black and poor, particularly in New Orleans.

They have said racial injustice was a factor in the government's slow relief effort.

"I just hope that when people stop and think about it, they will just see that that's just not the case," Rice said.

"How can that be the case?

"Americans don't want to see Americans suffer."

Since Katrina struck, an estimated 70 nations - from Azerbaijan to Venezuela - had offered more than $100m in cash donations to the American Red Cross, Rice said.

Many countries had also donated supplies, ranging from helicopters to food, to help the victims.

After outlining the influx of international support, Rice said she had told Bush: "If there's anything I can do outside of my responsibilities as secretary of state, I'd be happy to do that too."

Vielleicht wie gross er ist

:44p ET Sunday, September 4, 2005

Dear Friend of GATA and Gold:

Sprott Asset Management President John Embry and
his assistant, Andrew Hepburn, who one year ago
published a compilation of evidence of central
bank manipulation of the gold price, have just
done the same in regard to the U.S. stock market
and have reached a similar conclusion.

The new Sprott report, "Move Over, Adam Smith:
The Visible Hand of Uncle Sam," concludes that
the U.S. government has intervened to support
the stock market so many times that "what
apparently started as a stopgap measure may
have morphed into a serious moral hazard
situation, with market manipulation an endemic
feature of the U.S. stock market."

The new report by Sprott, an investment firm
based in Toronto, Ontario, Canada, relies
largely on reports of news organizations and
the essays and research papers of economics
academics that, as might be expected, have not
been well-publicized in the United States. But
some of these reports have been shared with you
in GATA's dispatches over the years.

The Sprott report does not maintain that the
government should never intervene in the stock
market; it recognizes that certain emergencies
may argue strongly for temporary intervention,
such as the 1987 stock market crash and the
terrorist attacks of September 2001. But, the
Sprott report notes, frequent surreptitious
intervention, conducted through intermediaries,
the government's favored financial houses in
New York, gives those intermediaries enormous
advantages over ordinary investors. Frequent
intervention, the Sprott report adds also makes
it impossible to distinguish between national
emergencies and political expediency.

The Sprott report concludes:

"Given the available information, we do not
believe there can be any doubt that the U.S.
government has intervened to support the stock
market. Too much credible information exists
to deny this. Yet virtually no one ever
mentions government intervention publicly,
preferring instead to pretend as if such
activities have never taken place and never
would.

"It is time that market participants, the
media and, most of all, the government
acknowledge what should be blatantly obvious
to anyone who reviews the public record on
the matter: These markets have been
interfered with on numerous occasions. Our
primary concern is that what apparently
started as a stopgap measure may have morphed
into a serious moral hazard situation, with
market manipulation an endemic feature of
the U.S. stock market.

"We have not taken a position on the wisdom
of intervention in this paper, largely because
exceptional circumstances could argue for it.
In many respects, for instance, the apparent
rescue after the 1987 crash and the planned
intervention in the wake of September 11 were
very defensible. Administered in extremely
small doses and with the most stringent
safeguards and transparency, market
stabilization could be justified.

"But a policy enacted in secret and knowingly
withheld from the body politic has created a
huge disconnect between those knowledgeable
about such activities and the majority of the
public, who have no clue whatsoever.

"There can be no doubt that the firms
responsible for implementing government
interventions enjoy an enviable position
unavailable to other investors. Whether they
have been indemnified against potential
losses or simply made privy to non-public
government policy, the major Wall Street firms
evidently responsible for preventing plunges
no longer must compete on anywhere near a
level playing field. It is most unfair that
the immensely powerful have been further
ensconced in their perched positions and thus
effectively insulated from the competitive
market forces ostensibly present in our
society.

"In addition to creating a privileged class,
the manipulation also has little democratic
legitimacy in the sense that the citizenry
has not given its consent. This has tangible
ramifications. By not informing the public,
successive U.S. administrations have employed
a dangerous policy response that is subject
to the worst possible abuse. In this regard,
the line between national necessity and
political expediency has no doubt been
perilously blurred.

"We can only urge people to see what the
evidence indicates and debate what is and
ought to be a very contentious matter. The
time for such a public discussion is long
overdue."

The Sprott report can be found in Adobe Acrobat
format at the Sprott Internet site here:

http://www.sprott.com/pdf/pressrelease/TheVisibleHand.pdf

Aladin, re.: vielleicht wie gross er ist.

Auch wenn es hier nichts zu suchen hat, wenn wir Condi's
Fingermass betrachten - fünf Zentimeter weniger und er wäre
eine Präsidentin.

Wirklich nicht ernst gemeint, reiner Spass

Germoney

Wenn in den nächsten Monaten die Weltwirtschaft auf Talfahrt
gehen wird, hat man mit "Katrina" - oberflächlich - einen Grund.

Tatsächlich weisen einige - nicht "gemanagte" Indikatoren seit Monaten
darauf hin.

Baltic Dry Index
http://investmenttools.com/futures/bdi_baltic_dry_index.htm

Atlantic & Pacific Capesize Index
Capesize Freight Rates
Panamax Freight Rates

Charts at:
http://www.ssyonline.com/Market_Information/index.html

Die Tanker Freight Rates - Charts dort ebenfalls verfügbar - sehen auch
eher mies aus.

Germoney

Habe mir gedacht es ist - noch - Zeit, ein paar weitere Kilo Silber zu kaufen -
das war aber nicht der Fauxpas. Nebenbei benutze ich meinen Urlaub
um ein paar langfristige Daten-Vergleiche zu machen. Sonnen-Zyklen und
Rohstoff-/Business-Zyklen seit 1776. Ist manchmal etwas aufwendig,
da die Daten aus den unterschiedlichsten Daten-Quellen kommen. Erfordert
bisweilen auch einige Programmier-Arbeit. Ich hing also länger an
den Rechnern.

Nun hatte ich vor dem Wochenende unserem Jüngsten einen Drachen
gekauft - Ihm aber gleichzeitig mitgeteilt, dass wir den Drachen erst bei
Wind, womöglich erst im Herbst steigen lassen können.

Am späten Vormittag kam dann unser Jüngster und quengelte rum.
Er wollte unbedingt sofort und heute den Drachen steigen lassen.
Nachdem ich Ihm - erfolglos - mehrfach erklärte, dass es mangels Wind
nicht möglich sei und er erneut mich bei meiner Tätigkeit unterbrach,
sagte ich, durchaus ungehalten:

"Weisst du was, wenn du unbedingt einen Drachen steigen lassen willst, geh zu Mama und saach, sie soll auf'n Stuhl steigen"

Umgehende Antwort von Mama:

"Saach mal dem Papa, wenn er im Urlaub - genauso wie in der Firma -
dauernd an der Tastatur kleben muss, dann baut Mama mal den "absoluten Firewall" hier ein, dann nimmt Mama den Seitenschneider
und killt das CAT-Kabel alle halbe Meter.
Anschliessend machen wir 'ne Hausparty und laden ein wer kommen
mag, wenn der Olle fluchend das Kabel erneuert."

Moral von der Geschichte:
Don't fight the family

Germoney

Dear Members,

Once again, water has played a devastating role on human life. We must pray for the victims of the disaster and all those directly and indirectly affected. Unfortunately it is my duty to tell you that we haven’t seen an end to this kind of devastation by nature. We shall continue to periodically experience water related upheavals until September next year. If you read my last book, I clearly mentioned that water related natural disasters would play a punishing role in human life for thirty months. This is a clear warning from nature to each one of us. We must recognise and appreciate nature because often times, we fail to realise the important role it plays in our lives. SATURN HAS THEREFORE TO PUNISH US. To avoid this, world leaders and everyone else must start working on global warming, stop destroying forests, desist from polluting rivers and seas, or contaminating the environment by dumping sensitive waste and yes politically they should play a fair role (should kill innocent, keep ego aside) etc. We must understand that desecration of nature and the environment is a violation of our own lives.

It is a sad irony that we destroy that which grants us life! In actual fact, nature is sacred because it supports life. One thing that I must openly say is that whenever you remember God or pray, you must not forget nature because nature is God and God is nature. We cannot live without air or water. Indeed, the very basic manifestations of nature are necessary for life! For instance, one would surely die if we stop breathe for only a few minutes, regardless of whether one is in a temple, mosque or church. Your beliefs in this case amount to nothing as nature must reign supreme.

I have just returned from a short spiritual trip to India. Last week I was completely wrong on the US dollar’s move. This reminded me of a similar situation on the first week of September 2004 when I was 100% incorrect concerning silver’s move. As a matter of fact, this is now the third time when I have been entirely off the mark just before my date of birth. This is a very strange fact and I am trying to find out why this is always the case. In addition, I have constantly been wrong during the Second week of April as well as the Second week of December. This has actually been happening since I started the newsletter service. This is definitely due to planetary movements in my chart and I intend to take this into account in future. In the meantime, I am determined to unravel the truth behind it so as to prevent similar errors.

I must say that I am always very sorry whenever I am wrong since you end up losing. This is also not good for my reputation and my work, even though the ratio of accurate predictions to wrong ones is very positive. However, it is human nature that people will always remember the wrong ones. Any way let us see how this week will be.

IMPORTANT NOTE: I HAVE BEEN PREDICTING A MAJOR CRASH IN COMMODITY PRICES TO COME ANY TIME AFTER THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER 2005. AND 48 HOURS BEFORE THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER GOT OVER AND WE WILL WATCH VERY CLOSELY THE NEXT SIX WEEKS OR SIX MONTHS. WILL THE PLANETS PLAY THEIR ROLES 100% TOWARDS WHAT THEY HAVE BEEN SHOWING ME?

NEWSLETTER FROM 5 SEPTEMBER TO 9 SEPTEMBER

GOLD

I expected gold to move up from this week but it happened last week. The early upward movement is a clear indication that it won't go above last week’s top ($451). This week it will trade in the range of $448.80 to $438. Buyers should sell on Wednesday; which means that one should get out 100% from buying position.

Gold will move within a small range on Tuesday and Wednesday but it could sharply fall on Thursday.

THE MOST IMPORTANT POINT THAT GOLD TRADERS MUST REMEMBER IS THAT GOLD’S SHORT TERM BULL RUN WILL BE OVER BY THE THIRD WEEK OF SEPTEMBER FOR THE NEXT 9 MONTHS BEFORE IT STARTS AN EXCITING UPWARDS JOURNEY. ONE SHOULD GRADUALLY GET OUT FROM METAL STOCKS ALSO.

SILVER

Last week silver remained silent and gives a clear signal of disconnection of its relations with gold. This gives me great hope regarding my future predictions for silver. This week, silver will remain directionless, uncertain or weak. The trading range will be $7.12 to $6.92.

COPPER/PALLADIUM/PLATINUM

Palladium will trade at the same levels, copper will move down around three percent and platinum is at the stage where it could drop more than ten percent any time.

OIL

Last week oil touched $70.85 and sharply went down on Friday. Indeed, it should move down more during this week. I don't know what path George W. Bush wants for the American people. It is very shameful that they were unable to reach New Orleans in time to rescue scores of people who desperately needed help. Even now, there are many people who are still in dire need of emergency assistance. It is sad to see his focus is to convince others and justify the biggest mistake of his life: ATTACKING IRAQ. WELL, I HAVE SAID MANY TIMES PREVIOUSLY, INDEED EVEN BEFORE THE WAR STARTED. I SAY IT ONCE AGAIN- THE WAR IN IRAQ WAS A WRONG MOVE BY BUSH, THE USA AND THE WORLD (that is those that supported him) AND THEY SHALL PAY THE PRICE FOR IT. WHY DO WORLD LEADERS REMAIN QUIET ABOUT THE SITUATION? CHILDREN, WOMEN AND OLD PEOPLE ARE DYING EVERY DAY AND NO ONE EXPRESSES SYMPATHY. AS IT IS, NO ONE SEEMS TO HAVE AN IDEA ON WHAT TO DO NEXT.

NATURE IS NOT HAPPY AND IN THE LONG RUN, OIL WILL GO UP CONTINUOUSLY. WE ARE YET TO SEE THE WORST time upon us from nature. Disaster has to follow when we lie or we support a lie. It is called in Sanskrit, "PRALYA" (A massive destruction by nature). It is painful that the world does not understand the role of nature. We should never desire pain anywhere in any form but live happily on this naturally given planet. WE SHOULD NEVER IMAGINE OURSELVES ALL-POWERFUL AND THINK THAT WE CAN DO WHATEVER WE WANT BUT DON’T FORGET THAT NATURE IS WATCHING.

Oil is a part of nature and you can be sure that nature will use all its weaponry. The oil rise came after the war, which is what I predicted before the war started. Oil will stifle the world economy in the middle of next year when it will trade above $100.
This week, I see oil moving down to $64.70 BUT those who don’t like uncertainty so stay side line as regularly news will be floating around oil and oil industry. Higher side it can touch $68.80.

STOCK MARKET

Last week the markets vacillated in the both directions and should come again into nature’s grip. I see the European and USA market going down again from Wednesday. Tuesday will therefore be the right day to sell all major Indices.

CURRENCIES

This was the most incorrect short term weekly prediction: the US dollar crashed on news of damage by Katrina.

Dollar’s astrological chart show that last week’s down ward moves was artificial and that forces many long term buyers out of the dollar.

I PREDICT A FIRST TARGET OF $90.80 IN THE NEXT 18 DAYS AND ABOVE 95.00 IN THE NEXT SIX WEEKS. I STRONGLY RECOMMEND BUYING THE DOLLAR. A GREAT CRASH IN THE EURO, POUND, FRANC, SOUTH AFRICAN RAND IS ON THE WAY.

FROM WEDNESDAY THE DOLLAR INDEX WILL START MARCHING AHEAD AND BY FRIDAY IT SHOULD PROVE THAT NO OTHER CURRENCY CAN WITHSTAND THE DOLLAR. DAMAGE FROM KATRINA IS A DIFFERENT THING AND ONE SHOULD THEREFORE NOT CORRELATE IT TO DOLLAR IN THE LONG RUN.

ALWAYS THIS KIND OF NEWS CERTAINLY AFFECTS RELATED AREAS OR COUNTRIES.

WHEN YOU ARE MAKING MONEY, PLEASE DON'T FORGET TO CONTRIBUTE SOME OF THE PROFITS TO THE NEEDY. RIGHT NOW, THE USA IS SUFFERING AND NEEDS HELP. ONE CAN THEREFORE GO AHEAD AND DO WHATEVER THEY CAN.

THANKS FOR KEEPING FAITH IN MY WORK.

Torsten Dennin Portfoliomanager der DB heute Morgen auf Blommberg zum Thema Rohstoffe:

Haussephase aktiv.

Gold bis Jahresende 475$. Starke Käufe von Privatanlegern,
-Inflationsschutz-. empfiehlt Währungsgesicherte Zertifikate/Einzelaktien

Die Zeiten des billigen Öl seien vorbei. Kurze Rücksetzer. Ölpreis zwischen 65 - 70 $ bis Jahresende.

Kakao losgelöst vom Gesamtmarkt. Situation in der Elfenbeinküste angespannt. Weiterhin hohe Preise.

zu Silber habe ich leider nur noch "...gute Zeichen für einen steigenden Silberpreis mitbekommen"....

lassen grüßen @ edelman,

das gilt für die US-getriebene Konjunktur mit den (letzten??) verfügbaren
Konjunkturkrücken von Bush.
Gold/silber wird in die SCHWACHEN hände Wie Asiaten, Muslims und uns übergehen. (Das Cabal steht nicht zur Seite)
Was die restlichen Metalle tun werden, wenn die >US- und Weltkonjunktur zusammenbricht ---zumindest mittelfristig---wage ich nicht zu prognostizieren (wir sind wohl mittendrin ---nur unsere Statistiken....)

Mit PMs sind wir uns einig...

Grüße

emoba

p.s.
Schichte seit Wochen von Metallaktien in PM_Aktien um.