Thai Guru's Gold und Silber ... (Informationen und Vermutungen)

.

Der Gold Bugs-Index ist knapp 3 Punkte von seinem Allzeithoch entfernt. Denkbar ist folgendes Szenario: Kurzfristiger Ausbruch auf neue Rekordhöhen, anschließend Korrektur des Ausbruchs auf die Ausbruchmarke bis 258 Punkte und dann Fortsetzung der Aufwärtsbewegung. Beim Goldpreis könnte das Szenario ähnlich verlaufen. Kurzfristig weiterer Anstieg, danach Korrektur in Richtung 500/510 US$ mit anschließender Wiederaufnahme der Aufwärtsbewegung. Das „Feintuning“ ist aber nicht so entscheidend, sondern die Perspektive, dass sich mit Blick auf 2006 in beiden Sektoren die Hausse fortsetzen wird.

Gruss

"Hätten Sie vor gut drei Jahren einen Teil Ihres Vermögens in den Kauf von Indium investiert, wäre dieses Kapital heute fast zwanzigmal mehr wert. Der Preis dieses seltenen Elements, das eine Reihe interessanter Eigenschaften aufweist, stieg in diesem Zeitraum von etwa 60 Dollar pro Kilogramm auf jetzt über 1000 Dollar. Indium ist wohl das erste Element, das nach Angaben des U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) - der amerikanischen Behörde, die regelmässig Statistiken über den globalen Bedarf strategischer Elemente führt - weltweit zur Neige gehen wird. Gemäss den jüngsten Extrapolationen dürfte dies in der ersten Hälfte des kommenden Jahrzehnts passieren, also in weniger als zehn Jahren."

Quelle

Vielleicht ist der Anstieg des Silbers bis jetzt nichts anderes als ein laues Lüftchen vor einem Orkan.

What a day ! :))

Wir treffen und frueher am Strand von Patong zum Sundowner als wir glauben.

At $500, gold's real price (as deflated by the CPI) is still lower than the peak of every rally since 1972. It would take a nominal gold price of $860 to match the deflated $500 high of 1987 and $1,020 to match the $510 seen in 1982. In order to test the 1980 high of $850 the nominal value would need to trade at $2,177.

GOLD SHARES

Our gold/commodities index (GCI) set a cyclical high of 255 in June, 2003 and ended its cyclical bear at 185 in June, 2005.

It is in a solid uptrend, which we have labeled as a cyclical bull market that could run into mid- 2007 and make a 50% gain.

On the first cyclical bull market from October, 2000, our gold/commodities index gained 35% from 189 to 255. With that, the HUI soared 600% to 252 in December, 2003.

Obviously, a 50% gain for the GCI would accomplish a huge bull market for the stocks.

The depth of the last two years consolidation was more pronounced in the XAU and HUI mining indices, but has now been followed by a breakout of the major resistance lines. Look for resistance in the XAU at 150 and then 200.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hoye/hoye120705.html

Zitat

Original von Edel Man
Na schaun wir mal erst,mit Patong.

Guter Aufsatz von Hoye.
Muß man erst wieder erinnert werden,daß
die Inflation die schönen Kurse verwässert.

Trotz Inflation: Wenn datt so weitergeht, dann bin ich auch dabei. 5% Rendite in 20 Tagen ist ja nicht völlig schlecht, gelle?

Mag sein, dass ich hier als Lachnummer für die nächsten Monate diene,
aber ich werde heute 20% in Cash wandeln.

Gruss

Germoney

Zitat

Original von germoney
Mag sein, dass ich hier als Lachnummer für die nächsten Monate diene,
aber ich werde heute 20% in Cash wandeln.

Gruss

Germoney

Ne durchaus plausibel, jetzt Gewinne mitzunehmen.
Ist ja am 13. Dez. eine FED Sitzung mit voraussichtlich einer weiteren Zinserhöhung
Und der 16. Dez.
Bin momentan zurückhaltend, weil ich noch mit Überraschungen rechne, kann da aber auch völlig falsch liegen...

Gold now at $513: is this the break?

Alec Hogg
Posted: Wed, 07 Dec 2005 08:00

Ever since the gold price started seriously threatening its psychological barrier at $500 an ounce, technical analysts have pointed out that to really motor, the price would have to break the $509,20 peak set in February 1983.

It looked promising for part of yesterday’s session in the Far East when the metal traded briefly above that level, touching $511. But that move fizzled out and the price eased back to a few dollars above $500.

But gold is back in rude health this morning, setting a fresh 23-year high of $513 and showing signs of holding the higher ground.

Might this be the final breakthrough which gold bulls have been waiting for? Bullion’s fan club is certainly in good voice.

This week’s newsletter from New Jersey-based investment advisor and feted gold supporter Peter Grandich, describes $510 as being the bears’ “last line in the sand”.

He argues: “The vast majority of investors and media are either unaware or unwilling to accept the belief that a group(s) has been heavily shorting and/or capping gold for several years.” He reckons market forces are finally besting these manipulators.

Grandich adds: “Look for $510 to be taken out before year’s end, and then a run to $525-$550 into the New Year. I do think we’ll see a healthy correction in the first quarter of 2006, but $600-$650 remains my upside target for gold.”

Judging by this morning’s action, Grandich’s timing may prove to be conservative.

For South Africans, the surge in the gold price brings other benefits. As Absa economist Chris Hart explained on Moneyweb Radio last night, because gold still accounts for a substantial portion of the national export earnings (together with platinum around 25%), higher prices for precious metals translates into a stronger exchange rate.

Although exporters wince when they see the Rand strengthening, there is little question that the national interest is served. The stronger currency helps reduce both interest rates and the price of petrol (over half SA’s oil is imported).

On the other hand, the stronger Rand has been baffling many small investors who’ve been piling into gold shares expecting the higher bullion price would bring them juicy profits. But with the value of SA gold shares dependent on the Rand price of gold, the stronger currency has offset recent gains in US Dollar terms.

Again, there could be good news on that front too. Hart, although expecting the Rand to remain firm, believes gold shares are a good investment. He talks of the bullion price consolidating above $500 and then enjoying “another extension”. And its future strength significantly outpacing future Rand rises.

Says Hart: “Gold is not an inflation player at the moment. It’s actually reflecting the fundamental and deep-seated problems that you are seeing in your two major currencies, and that’s the dollar and the euro. And that’s why gold is starting to run.”

The JSE’s Top 40 Index gained almost 1% yesterday and looks poised for another good session. International share markets were firmer overnight with the small gains posted by the US’s major indices following through to modest rises in Japan and Hong Kong.

South Africa’s Rand eased back a little in early trade this morning, dropping from R6,28 to R6,30 against the US Dollar. It remains firm against both the Pound (at R10,94) and Euro (R7,41). The Brent crude oil price edged 20c higher, trading in London this morning at $56,22 a barrel.

Gold - In my opinion, gold is where it's all at. Our recent move and close above the psychologically important $500 mark occurred with such ease and relatively little fan-fair that I have to wonder just how mean that boogieman hiding under the bed really is This latest march up has just been relentless and a-typical in the sense that every effort by the Commercials to turn the price of gold back down, has been met with wave after wave of buyers. There are literally tens of thousands of futures contracts out there that are $60 to $90 in the red and you have to wonder who can sustain such losses. They certainly never show up in anyone's balance sheet. Goldman Sachs has been a continual seller of the yellow metal for as long as man has roamed the earth and yet they never suffer any financial malady. I have to question how that can be.

In any event, gold is now at a critical stage. Our recent close at 513.80 for the March gold futures contract puts us above what I consider to be the breaking point of 509.50. This is our old high from the last significant rally dating back to the 80's and I believe it is a logical place for a correction. Also, I have maintained, and continue to maintain, that three consecutive closes above this point would be an indication that the wheels are now coming off and we are in for serious problems in the here and now. Not a popular notion, but it's what I believe. A look at the cash gold chart shows just how strong this leg up has been.

Gold is as overbought as it's been in a long time. Both the MACD and RSI are extremely overbought and we are now trading well above the 50 - d.m.a. On the plus side, [U]there is no real resistance until we reach 569.75! [/U]What has fueled this leg up? In my opinion, it's Asian demand. I also believe that some Central Banks, including the Russian, Argentine, and Chinese, have turned aggressive buyers of the yellow metal. After all, what better way to get rid of the dollars they take in?

What if anything could derail the gold express? Over the short run, the only thing I see that could bring down the price of gold would be a decline in the dollar. As illogical as that may sound, think about it for a moment. Gold has rallied hard in every major currency for months now, and gold is priced in dollars. If the dollar begins to decline, your profits in your home currency also could begin to decline. As a speculator, you could decide to liquidate and secure your profits. I'm not saying that will be the case; I'm just saying that could be the case. In any event, it's food for thought. I personally am and have been long gold since April 2004 and I will stay that way.

Silver - Over the short run, the poor man's gold has actually looked stronger than its rich cousin. We recently took out good resistance at 867.00 with ease and the path is now clear to the 10.00 mark. The following silver chart shows just how strong the rally has been:
Like gold, we have rallied off on a strong base that took months to construct, and like gold, silver is extremely overbought. It is now trading 10% above the 50 - d.m.a. but that doesn't mean that it can't become even more overbought.

One should always keep in mind that gold and silver can trade differently than any other commodity (although I don't view gold/silver as a commodity, I view them as money). The fear and greed aspect enter into the gold/silver market much more than any other market. It is the only true safe haven. So where does that leave us? Well, for two years I have maintained that the only way to trade these markets is not to trade them. You take an original position, for example, buying December 2008 gold futures contracts and leave an ample margin. Say 65%. Then you wait for the inevitable correction, adding on once it's over. You never liquidate; you just sit tight! I honestly know of no one who does this, but I do, and the results have been quite good. I began a small gold fund based on this principal in late March 2004 and it's been quite successful. Don't try to sell tops and buy dips. You'll just loose money.

Gold Stocks - The HUI has been a reluctant participant in the gold rally as of late. The following chart of the HUI gives the impression that it is being dragged along kicking and screaming.

Not nearly as bullish as the other two is it? Believe it or not, the RSI is still in neutral territory! How can this be? My answer is that the market is so small that it can be easily manipulated with a relatively small amount of money. For years, the big boys would come in and sell naked shorts on these stocks and knock the price down. This would be a signal that gold would soon fall and everyone would jump ship. That same trick has failed time and again over the last couple of months and has led to some great short covering rallies. Times change! In any event, I am long the same stocks (BVN, CDE, GG, GLG, NEM, and RGLD) for two years and I will stay long these stocks for years to come. Why these particular stocks? They are the blue chips, they all possess decent balance sheets, and they all have excellent dividend potential. My best advice is to sit tight and hang on for dear life.

Enrico Orlandini
Lasco Report

7 December 2005

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/orlandini120705.html

Zitat

...$510 as being the bears’ “last line in the sand”.

Was macht eigentlich Elliotwaver Bob Prechter ??? [Blockierte Grafik: http://www.smiliemania.de/smilie132/00000285.gif][Blockierte Grafik: http://www.smiliemania.de/smilie132/00000285.gif][Blockierte Grafik: http://www.smiliemania.de/smilie132/00000285.gif]

Morgen POG unter 200 USD ?

Wenn ich mir den HUI und POG Chart anschaue in der Vergangenheit was kann die schlimmste Situation sein. ??

Der HUI kann 24% fallen (200)
Der POG kann 12 % fallen...jedoch unmoeglich bei der Nachfrage.

Nun sind aber die shorts in trouble mehr als je zuvor und darum ist das obrige max.Down schon sehr gebremst IMO.

dH... HUI - 18% (210)

POG - 9 % ( 475 USD )

Jetzt nehme ich noch den starken Dollar dazu der wenig Luft nach oben hat sowie
eine weitere Zinserhoehung dann komme ich rein geschaetzt auf einen max. Fall auf

HUI 225
POG 485 USD

So, jetzt bezahlt man 5% Courtagen da bleibt vielleicht ein 12% Profit uebrig den man rausholen kann wenn man zum richten zeitpunkt rein und raus geht.

Viel Glueck beim handeln, ich lasse alles laufen da ist noch Luft bis 467 USD.

Wenn ihr mich fragt Gold haelt sich sicher ueber 490 USD und der HUI 230.Wegen knapp 8% Gewinn nach Gebuehren trade ich bestimmt nicht.
Der HUI hat noch Luft bis 280, dann kann man ein wenig abziehen.
Ich nehme als Faustregel einen max. Sturz von 50% vom letzten High vom letzten Low. D.h z.ZT 220 auf 260 - 50% = 240 HUI.

Es geht weiter wie ein Krebs, zwei Schritte vor und einen zurueck bis sicher 1000 USD in 3-5 Jahren.

5% Cash auf der Seite reicht mir.

Orlandi sagt:

For years, the big boys would come in and sell naked shorts on these stocks and knock the price down. This would be a signal that gold would soon fall and everyone would jump ship. That same trick has failed time and again over the last couple of months and has led to some great short covering rallies. Times change! In any event, I am long the same stocks

Gruss

Eldo

Can Gold Reach $900?

By Lindsay Williams
07 Dec 2005 at 11:14 AM EST

JOHANNESBURG (Business Day) -- Classic Business Day gets multi-billionaire Jim Rogers, former partner of George Soros in the legendary Quantum Fund, on the line about the performance of commodities in 2005, and the outlook for 2006.

LINDSAY WILLIAMS: Jim, can we maybe start with commodities that are most important to South Africa and Africa - the precious metals, and base metals. Even I am surprised by the way the gold price has behaved - I think it’s doubled in the last five years to $510 an ounce, and platinum was recently at 25.5-year highs, with silver also doing extremely well - what do you think the prospects are for this particular complex?

JIM ROGERS: I suggest you read my book where I explained how all this would be happening, and it’s going to get better - you haven’t seen anything yet. Copper needs to correct, some of these things need to correct – but the shortages of raw materials is going to get much worse over the next 10 to 15 years, and we’re going to have an unbelievable bull market. Even I – and I’m bullish – am going to be surprised! There’s been no major oil discovery anywhere in the world in over 35 years - oil fields are depleting. Most metals companies have not been exploring for metals, and certainly not opening many new mines - except for gold that’s continued to expand - but for most other metals people just haven’t done any exploration. Phelps Dodge - which is the second largest copper company in the world - has made a conscious decision not to open any new mines, they’re going to try to expand their old mines. This is going to cause problems down the road....

LINDSAY WILLIAMS: So if we break it down - you’re talking about copper, you’re talking about oil - but if we go back to the precious metals complex are they just going to tag along because of the inflationary consequences, or just tag along with the whole commodity bull market in general?

JIM ROGERS: You mean gold and silver?

LINDSAY WILLIAMS: Yes.

JIM ROGERS: Gold is certainly going to participate, but I think you’re going to make more money in other commodities - you will make more money in sugar or coffee than you will in gold, but I own some gold and some silver - we’re certainly going to make money in all of these things. In previous bull markets of any asset class - everything makes a new all-time high. That means gold has to go to at least $900, and silver has to go much higher if history is any guide to how bull markets have always worked....

LINDSAY WILLIAMS: I remember you speaking to us last time - I think it was maybe it was about nine months ago - you said perhaps the oil price had run a little bit too far, and you proved correct. It did go to $70 a barrel, but it’s back now at around about $60 - is there going to be a second or third wave on this particular commodity?

JIM ROGERS: Sure, oil will be well over $100 before it’s over - if history is any guide this bull market is going to last until around 2018, sometime between 2014 and 2022, and everything is going to go much higher. There has been no major oil discovery anywhere in the world in over 35 years - every oil field you know about is in decline. Somebody has to do something....

LINDSAY WILLIAMS: That’s the supply side of things – on the demand side of things in the past we’ve spoken a lot about China, and we’ve spoken about the U.S. economy as well - is the demand factor still a big one?

JIM ROGERS: Of course. I think most Chinese still don’t have electricity, most Indians still don’t have electricity - they’re going to get electricity even if those countries grow at a slow rate, and they’re certainly not going to rip out their electricity anymore than you’re going to rip out your electricity if things slow down - demand will continue to grow.

LINDSAY WILLIAMS: Is there any problem perhaps with the U.S. dollar when it comes to the dollar price of commodities - we’ve seen the gold, platinum, silver and copper prices and everything else dislocating from the strength of the U.S. dollar - does that mean that we should ignore the dollar’s strength and just buy commodities?

JIM ROGERS: The dollar is fundamentally very flawed, and it’s going to be a serious problem in the next five or 10 years - it’s having a big rally in 2005 for some technical reasons. It was beaten down in 2002, 2003 and 2004 and there’s a special tax incentive for American companies to bring their money back into the US this year - but that incentive ends this year, and so you will see the dollar resume it’s decline, and that is bullish for commodities, but that’s not the main reason commodities will be going up. The main reason is supply and demand are out of whack, but a weak currency like the dollar is going to help commodities.

LINDSAY WILLIAMS: What do you think about the implications for the other asset class - that being equities. We’re seeing the Dow Jones getting very close to 11,000 and everyone getting very enthusiastic. Ben Bernanke is coming in to take over the chairmanship of the U.S. Federal Reserve - what are your predictions for the financial markets?

JIM ROGERS: I’m not optimistic about the U.S. stock market in 2006. The economy will slow down, the market will slow down - the market has been flat for a couple of years now basically, and Ben Bernanke will be a disaster for the Federal Reserve. His solution to everything is to print money - so I’m not optimistic about the dollar, the stock market, the economy in the U.S. next year....