Hier ein paar Kommentare dazu: 
Crowded trade - yes! A drop in oil prices will spur a bear market rally, pushing down the price of gold. By the fall, the rally will reverse and gold will be back at +$900 an ounce. The consumer is tapped out and a drop of $0.50 a gallon will not spell relief. The Fed will not raise interest rates for fear of destabilizing the shadow banking's derivatives market. Asset deflation in housing coupled with price inflation in necessary goods will return the market to its general uneasiness and put a floor of $850 under gold.
I would say that a far bigger problem for gold is that the eight biggest bullion banks open interest is short by over 80%. 
The '8 or less' traders in gold currently hold 81.6% of the entire short position on the Comex. [For silver, it's 78.2% short.] It is hard for gold to go up when it is negatively controled by so few traders. My guess is that they are working with the government to make the dollar seem better than it is. Since they don't control oil, it has gone up to more accurately reflect the flood of dollars through the Fed over the past six months.
There are just too many variables involved for anyone one the planet to really know what is going to happen in the short run to the gold market, or any commodity for that matter. Charts are only history, and are little better than tea leaves.
Gold is easily moved in either direction by factors outside the gold market itself.
A "contrarian bearish reading" is nothing more than a "mainstream bullish reading." 
All of the charts ever created, and all of the talk ever uttered, will never replace the fundamental fact that paper money has no backing. 
Jim Sinclair:
Dear Friends,
Today is the same as yesterday, and the day before, and all the days before that.
At 4am in comes the ESF and the Big Six into the euro and gold market.
At 7am the Spin begins.
At 9am the Gold Gang barfs one more time.
All the spin and stabilization cannot prevent the imminent consequences from the bailing out of every bank and financial agency that has issued OTC derivatives.
The consequence is a form of the Weimar experience. The consequence is Gold at $1650. The consequence is a substantially lower dollar.
Spin and stabilization cannot stop the onslaught of these consequences. Bernanke cannot play the Hawk without trashing what is left of the financials.
Bernanke needs ammunition for further problems so of course he has rates on hold. The show rate, also known as the discount rate, is so low that he needs a point and a half in reserve for the next crisis.
Don't be fooled. Let the fools be fooled.
Sincerely,
Jim
- die ultimative Wertaufbewahrung! 
