Gold und Silber... Informationen und Vermutungen I

@Edel....

Wenn man alle erbärmlichen Wichte hassen wollte, da hätte man viel zu tun;
Verachten kann man sie mit größter Bequemlichkeit samt und sonders."

@HT... Flush !

Kevin haelt nicht viel von ETF's...

The dollar is a victim of globalization

Commentary: Gold bars and a strong lock might be the best answer

By Kevin Kerr, MarketWatch
Last Update: 12:01 AM ET Jun 2, 2008
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- It's easy these days in our drive-through, MTV, 24-hour a day American lifestyle to forget that we live in a truly global community.

We have become so accustomed to our way of life that the idea that our currency is not at the center of the economic universe, is unthinkable. Even so, the cracks are starting to show for the greenback and one beneficiary has a storied history as a haven when paper currency weakens: gold.

The reality of globalization

The benefits of globalization are many but the impacts are significant, and will only get more intense. As the middle class in key countries like India and China swell, their cultures will surpass that of Europe and America. Already we are seeing huge increases in demand for energy of all kinds, grains from rice to wheat and base and precious metals are in record demand.

Regardless, if speculators and traders are helping to propel the prices higher, demand is the real culprit. In other words demand is the cake and speculators are simply the icing. To lay the blame (as many are trying to do now) on speculators alone is foolish.

The demand destruction so many economists have talked about for several years now has simply not come to pass. The old saying back in the 1980s and 1990s in the trading pits was, "The cure for high prices is high prices." That may have been true then but we simply didn't have the pent-up global demand we have now. So the high price theory may work it just may be at much higher levels than in the past. That's the power of globalization and the new reality. So what does that really mean for the U.S. dollar?

Shredding the myth of paper currency

CNBC's Larry Kudlow refers to the U.S. currency lately as the American peso. With the way the U.S. Federal Reserve failed to defend the dollar, calling it the American peso may just be an insult to the peso. The relentless cuts in interest rates and poor fiscal policy, to say the least, led us to the precipice of new all-time lows for the U.S. dollar index ($DXY). Precarious times indeed for those of us with most of our assets denominated in US dollars and who also happen to get paid in the currency. I was in London recently and got a real taste of just how weak the currency is on the global market. It's one thing to look at an exchange rate, it's a very different experience to actually go buy a hamburger and chili at a pub and have it cost $40.

Inflation at home is real too regardless of the constant cavalcade of data from the government that shows otherwise. With gas prices for regular (near my house in Connecticut) reaching $4.40 a gallon, 10 ears of corn (not good quality) costing $3.99, milk, bread, tuition, and rents all rising, the average consumer could care less what the government numbers say; the evidence is clear.

But the printing presses seem never to run out of ink at the Fed and so the beat goes on.

No room at the bunker

While I have been a commodities trader for 20 years, I'm not a gold bug. Still, I'm a fan of gold and believe that most of us have little understanding of how important gold is in most major societies. Sure, most of us all probably have a little gold here and there. A ring, a watch, a filling or two... but we have little concept of the power of gold in many cultures. Gold is and always has been a store house of value, a flight to quality vehicle in time of economic strife or fear, or simply as a hedge to inflation, but it is much more.

I was recently in China, Singapore and then Dubai; these are good examples of countries and cultures where gold carries not only a financial importance but also a significant cultural importance. The difference between now and in the past is that we have never had the wealth creation for most of these people as we do now. As Indian and Chinese middle-class wealth grows, so too will the demand for the yellow metal. In Dubai I visited the gold souk, which is simply a gold market that cannot be rivaled. Dubai after all, is called the city of gold.

We live in changing times and the global economy has brought with it some very positive aspects but also many potential catalysts for conflict. Already battles over various resources are happening around the planet, and as a growing hungry world demands more of almost everything, supplies will tighten and countries will become desperate.

Clearly, the idea of a world in which we live in bunkers eating canned food and barter with shotguns and gold, is not a place most of us want to live out our days.

Not taking things to such an extreme, we can still envision a world in which paper currency becomes less desirable and a shift to tangible assets (such as gold) becomes far more portable. Is it really that hard to accept that the U.S. dollar's reign may be coming to an end, or at least taking a serious pause?

There are many ways to diversify away from a dollar centric portfolio and have at least some exposure to gold.

The shining path for your portfolio

The path to financial prosperity may well be paved with gold, but the question is which path is the best one to take. With gold exchange-traded funds, gold stocks, gold coins, gold bullion and even e-gold, what is an investor's best choice to reap the benefits?

There is no hard and fast answer but clearly paper gold (certainly the ones not backed by bullion) has little advantage over paper currency. Paper is paper and it's only worth what's printed on it, and more importantly, what backs it up. No, it seems to me that the idea of adding gold to a portfolio is a non-correlated play for most non-goldbugs. Therefore adding a paper gold play whether it be ETFs or mining companies to me seems counterproductive. Instead I would go all in and by the actual metal. That's right, not paper or plastic, but gold, the real deal.

Get a safe deposit box and then accumulate bullion in bar form. Many people like coins, but if you don't know what you're doing it can burn you and it becomes less of an investment and more of a hobby. If that's what you're looking for, collect stamps or butterflies. When it comes to investing I suggest buying the bars or futures and options contracts backed by gold.

The further you get from actually possessing the metal itself, the further you get from the true value of gold.
As gold regains its footing and contemplates the next run above $1000, I believe to $1400 within six to nine months, if not far sooner, you can always get a bigger safe deposit box and have peace of mind to boot.

Es ist zum.. ...der PFUI faellt weiter, bei 400 punkten platzt mir die Hutschnur.

Short Term Warning for Gold Bugs

Sentiment models are flashing caution for gold again. The Commitment of Traders data chart below shows the large speculator (hedge fund) net position in gold bullion, readings are moving into the crowded long zone despite the recent weakness in the gold price. This is a contrarian bearish reading.

http://seekingalpha.com/articl…erm-warning-for-gold-bugs

Hier ein paar Kommentare dazu:

Crowded trade - yes! A drop in oil prices will spur a bear market rally, pushing down the price of gold. By the fall, the rally will reverse and gold will be back at +$900 an ounce. The consumer is tapped out and a drop of $0.50 a gallon will not spell relief. The Fed will not raise interest rates for fear of destabilizing the shadow banking's derivatives market. Asset deflation in housing coupled with price inflation in necessary goods will return the market to its general uneasiness and put a floor of $850 under gold.

I would say that a far bigger problem for gold is that the eight biggest bullion banks open interest is short by over 80%.
The '8 or less' traders in gold currently hold 81.6% of the entire short position on the Comex. [For silver, it's 78.2% short.] It is hard for gold to go up when it is negatively controled by so few traders. My guess is that they are working with the government to make the dollar seem better than it is. Since they don't control oil, it has gone up to more accurately reflect the flood of dollars through the Fed over the past six months.

There are just too many variables involved for anyone one the planet to really know what is going to happen in the short run to the gold market, or any commodity for that matter. Charts are only history, and are little better than tea leaves.

Gold is easily moved in either direction by factors outside the gold market itself.

A "contrarian bearish reading" is nothing more than a "mainstream bullish reading."

All of the charts ever created, and all of the talk ever uttered, will never replace the fundamental fact that paper money has no backing.

Jim Sinclair:
Dear Friends,

Today is the same as yesterday, and the day before, and all the days before that.

At 4am in comes the ESF and the Big Six into the euro and gold market.
At 7am the Spin begins.
At 9am the Gold Gang barfs one more time.
All the spin and stabilization cannot prevent the imminent consequences from the bailing out of every bank and financial agency that has issued OTC derivatives.

The consequence is a form of the Weimar experience. The consequence is Gold at $1650. The consequence is a substantially lower dollar.

Spin and stabilization cannot stop the onslaught of these consequences. Bernanke cannot play the Hawk without trashing what is left of the financials.

Bernanke needs ammunition for further problems so of course he has rates on hold. The show rate, also known as the discount rate, is so low that he needs a point and a half in reserve for the next crisis.

Don't be fooled. Let the fools be fooled.

Sincerely,

Jim

Schablonski, ich bin nach wie vor optimstisch das Gold ueber 850-870 stehen wird egal was nun der USD macht in den naechsten 10 Wochen.
Alle Drachen fallen vom Himmel, so auch der USD nach dem sie ihn steigen lassen.
Es sind noch max drei monate schwitzen fuer die Gold und Silberbugs spaetestens dann kommt der Ausbruch ueber 1000 $ POG/ 20 $ Silber.
Bis dort hin nicht bange machen lassen, geniesst den Sommer und grillt Euch was gutes waerend das Tauziehen weiter geht.
Mit physischen Euro/CHF Gold und Silber koennt ihr ganz ruhig schlafen, die PM Aktien will noch keiner die werden leider noch mehr geshorted von den Bastards.
Ich bin froh das ich auf fast 48% physischen sitze, das beruhigt und schuetzt beim dem grossen Margin der nun zu 78% mit EM gedeckt ist.
Die 52% Aktien sind weiter ein risiko wobei ich nur hoffe kann die 400-410 HUI halten.
Ich bin noch bis Ende Juni auf dem Wachposten dann schalte ich ab fuer 7 Wochen und mir ist es egal was das PPT wieder anstellt.
Die kochen auch nur mit Wasser und das wird immer unglaubwuerdiger.
Ich hoerte vorhin ein gutes audio wo der Mann behaupted das die Investoren bereits ihre USD in Rohstoffe/Sachwerte heimlich stecken darum hatten wir die Blase bei Lebensmittel und Oil etc. Bald kommt Gold auf die Einkaufsliste zum Teil wird schon gekauft damit man vor den anderen die USD schon in Euro oder Sachwerte getauscht hat, weit vor der grossen Panik.
Wenn die grossen Investoren anfangen Gold und Silber zu kaufen muessen dann die Zentralbanken auch mitziehen.
Dollar Index USDX - Ziel 61
Die Flucht aus dem Fiatgeld kommt noch,der Euro kommt nur spaeter dran, keine Sorge.

Geduld !!!

Gnight

Eldo