Gold und Silber... Informationen und Vermutungen I

So, jetzt haben wir noch ein paar Tage Freudenfest mit steigenden EM Preise dann kommt wieder Rock'n Roll vom 10.Oktober bis 1. November und das Sentiment dreht sich wieder stark in beide Richtungen sagt Merriman.
IMO wer Profitmitnahmen machen will oder muss der sollte das naechste Woche machen, ansonsten halten und das Gewitter wieder aussitzen falls es eintrifft.

http://www.mmacycles.com/weekl…week-beginning-october-1/

As the famous banker J.P. Morgan once stated in the 1920’s:

“Millionaires don’t use astrology. Billionaires do.”

Schade, man kann ohne Abbo nichts mehr lesen bei Mahendra Seite als Kontrast oder Kontraindikator,.. das einzige was er schreibt auf seiner Webseite ist :

Crash is coming from friday or monday, black friday or monday for...... Thursday, September 27, 2007, Mahendra Sharma

HOT OCTOBER !!!!

Rumors has it that Central Banks will intervene next week in the currency market and try to give the USD a lift....so watch out !

A major question now is will this new gold price level hold, or will it sell off on profit taking. One significant concern here is that the ongoing credit crisis, and problems in the corporate paper markets not rolling over, could lead to another equity sell off. That could leave gold vulnerable to liquidity selling, particularly since funds are now carrying gold profits at these new high prices.

Again, the USD must stay below 78 on the USDX for this gold rally to stay with us.

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/laird092807.html

Gute Uebersicht.... thanx, Heron

Hier was zum lachen und abschalten am Wochenende.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v…R3Ynw&mode=related&search

The Times

September 29, 2007

All that glisters may not be gold
Patrick Hosking, Banking Editor

It has long been the plaything of kings, the spoil of conquerors and supposedly the safest investment that money can buy. But for the people of Britain, our national nest-egg may not quite be what it appears.

Hidden away in vaults under the City of London, Britain’s hoard of gold bullion, regarded as the best insurance against any turmoil in global money markets, is beginning to crumble. The deterioration, some experts claim, may suggest that it is not pure gold.

The Bank of England, guardian of the 320-tonne stash under Threadneedle Street, admitted yesterday that cracks and fissures had appeared in some of its gold.

Questions put to the Bank, made under the Freedom of Information Act, revealed that this deterioration would temporarily reduce the gold’s £4 billion value and make it more difficult to sell.

*

The discovery is a further embarrasment for the beleaguered Bank, coming only days after it was blamed in part for the Northern Rock crisis. But it said that most of the hoard remained in mint condition. It denied suggestions by some experts that the deterioration was evidence that the gold may have been adulterated with base metal.

"This is not about purity, this is about physical appearance," the Bank insisted, saying that its bars were 99.9 per cent pure gold. The problem was due to the age of the bars, many of which were imported from the US in the 1930s and 1940s.

Although the gold carries assay marks, a guarantee from the refiner of its purity, there are no accompanying assay certificates, now regarded as essential by gold traders.

The Bank holds the gold on behalf of the Treasury, mainly in bars, but also in ingots and coins. Most of the hoard is thought to be stored in bars weighing between 10.9kg (24lb) and 13.4kg, and each worth between $258,000 (£123,000) and $317,000.

Revelations about its physical deterioration were secured by the trade journal Metal Bulletin, which has been trying to ascertain the truth since May. Rumours that the Bank’s gold was not in tiptop condition have circulated in the gold market for years, but Stuart Allen, the Bank’s deputy secretary, has now confirmed there is an issue.

To be traded, gold bars have to meet so-called London Good Delivery (LGD) standards, as laid down by the London Bullion Market Association. Mr Allen wrote to the journal: "There is some uncertainty about the status of LGD standards in respect of certain categories of gold bars that have been held in deep storage for many years."

The Bank was in discussions with the association to clarify how much of its gold was in sub-standard condition, Mr Allen added.

A Bank spokesman insisted it was not a big problem. The gold could easily be sent off to a refiner to be melted down and turned into new bars, he said. According to market observers questioned by Metal Bulletin, cracks and fissures suggested that the bars may not be pure gold. The gold in coin form may also be contaminated with base metal.

If 100 per cent pure, the gold would be worth just over £4 billion at the current price of $738 an ounce.

The Government keeps reserves of gold and foreign currency to use to prop up sterling in times of adversity. In theory, in times of war, reserves could be used to finance emergency imports.

Britain’s reserves have already been more than halved in recent years after Gordon Brown’s controversial decision to sell 395 tonnes of gold between 1999 and 2002, when he was Chancellor. The soaring price since then has left critics questioning the decision and its timing.

Peter Ryan, an analyst at the consultant Gold Field Mineral Services, said: "I would guess that it would only be a small proportion that doesn’t conform to standards and it would only be an issue if they needed to sell the gold. Some of this gold was acquired 30 or 40 years ago and standards do vary, but it is not difficult to fix." The gold price has been soaring recently as investors seek a hedge against the falling dollar and inflation worries. Strong demand from India, the biggest gold-consuming country in the world, has also boosted prices. There, gold jewellery, ingots and coins are a favourite wedding and festival gift.

Analysts suggested that the Bank, which declined to say how much tonnage was affected, would not be alone with its deteriorating bars. Many other central banks with reserves going back centuries could face similar problems.

Governments of Australia, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Argentina and Belgium, as well as Britain, have sold gold reserves in recent years. Britain argued that gold represented too large and risky a proportion of its total reserves. But the fashion for selling reserves appears to have faded as the price has risen.
Net government sales were only 328 tonnes worldwide last year, down 51 per cent, according to Gold Fields Mineral Services.

Dispatched: September 27, 2007 Korelin Economics Report

"Why Bother Investing in Gold If the Price Is Manipulated?"

By: A. B. Korelin

Crazy Bill Murphy, the founder of GATA and one of my favorite websites LeMetrople Cafe , emphatically tells everybody who will listen that the price of gold is "rigged by the cabal" and that in the end they will fail. Newsletter writer Jay Taylor completely agrees as does p.r. genius Peter Grandich.

James Turk puts it differently when he says, "the price of gold is clearly managed." I like the word "managed" because it connotes an action that is, at least theoretically, not malicious.

After considerable study and numerous conversations with my guests on The Korelin Economics Report, I personally am convinced that the price of gold is managed.

I believe this is true for one simple reason. It is managed because it has the status of being the best indicator, along with consumer confidence, of economic conditions.

Now, there are a lot of people out there who don’t think that the financial health of our country is all that great. They believe economist John Williams, the originator of the website found on the Internet at http://www.shadowstats.com, when he claims to have concrete evidence that inflation, among other things, is greatly mis-reported and that the number is not around 3% but actually something north of 10%. He feels that same way about the unemployment numbers and the debt figures put out by the federal government.

Now, it is a known fact that the U.S. economy is driven by the spending habits of the individual consumer. Okay, that makes sense. Now, if people stop spending money, the economy slows down and when that happens, unless something turns this situation around, things simply get worse and worse.

Case in point, when gold’s price escalated to the $800/ounce level in the early 1980’s the U.S. economy was really suffering and consumers were nervous, curbing a lot of their spending. I remember those days because our mortgage was around 15% and, you better believe, Kathy and I weren’t spending money the way people have been spending during the past ten years or so buying new cars, boats, jewelry, expensive restaurant dinners, etc.

So why is the American consumer so free with his or her money today? Well, for a couple of reasons. First of all, the typical consumer is not convinced that there is anything at all wrong with the economy. The reported consumer price index is within a tolerable range, the unemployment figures are low and the gross domestic product is growing at a fairly respectable rate. Or so they believe. Also, the price of gold is appreciating, but not at the rate that it would if the emperor was really wearing all of his clothes.

Okay, there is some concern on the periphery about the reported economic statistics, but the level of concern is not particularly high.

Let’s now assume that the price of gold was truly the result of the law of supply and demand. Since the beginning of time, one of the factors affecting this basic economic law has been the perception of economic well-being or lack thereof. The demand for gold increased when people were nervous. When demand increases significantly as it did in the late 1970’s and early 1980’s, the intersection of the supply and demand curves is at a much higher level.

I believe that if we saw a significant increase in the price of gold over the past five years or so, the U.S. economy and many of the other economies of the world would have stopped dead in their tracks.

They would have done that because the consumer spending that fueled this growth would not have been there because people would have stopped throwing their money around. They certainly would not have borrowed large amounts of cash to fuel their spending. They would instead have followed the example of the squirrel and put some away for the hard winter that they knew was coming.

It may sound simplistic, but I believe that had a significant increase occurred in gold’s price consumers would have gotten frightened and saved cash and not borrowed at ridiculously high levels. The savings rate, instead of being negative, would have been strong.

It is obvious to me that it is in the best interest of those attempting to control our economy, in their eyes for our own good, to make sure the price of gold is suppressed so that no one gets nervous.

If you buy that, you would have to ask, "why then does it make any sense to invest in gold or gold-related investments?"

There is one simple reason. I maintain that conditions have gotten to the point where it will soon be impossible to maintain the artificially low levels of today. Too many things are going sideways. The U.S. dollar continues to drop, U.S. debt levels on the part of both the government and the individual continue to escalate and the huge influx of foreign capital coming into our country could stop any day.

We are simply too close to the edge. When we cross over that edge, you will see normal supply and demand take effect and as James Turk said last week, "you could easily see gold spike upwards $100 in a single day followed by a four digit price level.

Take a listen to the internationally syndicated Korelin Economics Report. You can do that by listening to one of the many stations around the world that carry the program or you can listen on the Internet by going to http://www.kereport.com. On my program I discuss this very important issue with the proven experts in the field. Listen and come to your own conclusion.

The Greater Depression - UPDATE

By Doug Casey, Editor, International Speculator

Let me cover the big picture. I do think we're approaching the end of the world as we know it…I think there is such thing as the business cycle. It exists. And we've had the longest expansion - and the strongest expansion - in the world history. But we're at the end of a 25-year boom. It's gone on more than a full generation now. And I'll tell you how it's going to end: It's going to end with a depression, and not just a depression; not just another Great Depression; it's going to be the Greater Depression.

What's a depression, incidentally? It's a period of time when distortions and misallocations of capital are liquidated; that's called a depression. Over the last 25 years, distortions and misallocations of capital have produced an artificial boom. But when these distortions and misallocations of capital are liquidated, we'll get a depression.

Another general definition of a depression is this: a period of time when most people's standard of living goes down significantly. Now, for the long run, there's no question in my mind the standard of living of everybody on earth is going to go up immensely over the next hundred years. Immensely. But that doesn't mean that we're not going to have setbacks, and I think we're looking at one: A severe standard of living drop. So the economic picture is not going to be good…

So what should you be doing about all this? I suggest you really internationalize yourself. I think what you ought to have is your citizenship in one country, your bank account in another country, your investments in a third, and live in a fourth. You've got to internationalize yourself. Most people out there are like medieval serfs, psychologically and physically: they're born some place, they don't go very far from it and that's where they die, and they're going to get exactly what they deserve. Well, you can't be that way. I think you ought to treat the world as your oyster.

What am I doing about this? I've been all over the world. I guess I've lived in 12 countries now. And out of 175, I've been to most of them, numerous times actually. What am I doing, where do I want to go, where am I living?

Well, in New Zealand. I went there a few years ago for the polo, actually, and the reason was that playing polo there was about 10% what it cost me in Palm Beach, and I liked it better. So we bought a lot of real estate. But since then, the currency has doubled and the real estate within that currency has doubled at least. So I'm getting out of New Zealand. Where am I going now? I'm going to Argentina.

And let me give you a tip, okay? Forget about Europe, it's going to become a petting zoo.
It's like Disneyland with real stones instead of paper Mache stones. I mean, Europe is on the slippery slope. I wouldn't touch Europe with a ten-foot pole.
If this war with Islam gets out of control, Europe is going to be an epicenter.
It's going to be a disaster. I'll tell you where you ought to look. Argentina is the place to be. It's the cheapest country in the world. It has low population, incredibly beautiful, the climate is great. One hundred years ago, it was in competition with the US for being the best place in the world and the richest place. But it went downhill radically, radically.

But let me tell you something. It's turning around I think. And what's going to happen is driven by the fact that everything in Argentina costs between 10% to 30% of what it costs in North America. That's correct. It's that cheap. It's free. It's free. It's free for us as North Americans. But the Europeans really think it's free with that strong Euro. So you're getting a massive immigration from rich Europeans that can see the handwriting on the wall and like it down there. And I really like it down there. It's just a great society, great society, great place to hang out, prices are right. I mean this can solve most of your investment problems right there, just by transplanting yourself, if you've got some capital. Furthermore, Argentina is going to be insolated from WWIII to a good extent.

Hope to see you down there!

Most investors are…Clueless… about Gold!
Most investors have barely begun to wake up to the extreme potential of gold and gold stocks in the coming monetary crisis… leaving the door wide open for you to make investment profits of 500%, 1,000% or more!

Ich habe mir ein paar Interviews angehoert, David Morgan sagt falls Gold ueber die 750 $ steht fuer ein paar Tage dann ist er selber ueberrascht und ist nicht mehr vorsichtig.
Wann kommt ein kraeftiger Ruecksetzer, bei 750 der 800 USD ?
Theoretisch muss einer kommen, wenn der erledigt ist sofort nachkaufen da der Weg dann bis 850 $ frei ist.
Silber hat Potential von 14.20 $ falls es drueber geht und haelt ist die selbe Situation. Am 4.Oktober trifft sich die EZB, wer weiss was die wieder auskochen. Die naechste Woche wird sicherlich ein Tauziehen, am Freitag wissen wir mehr.

September 29, 2007

Precious Points: Approaching the Moment of Truth
by Oroborean

http://safehaven.com/article-8516.htm

$714- $715 is a place where significant buying will occur ...."

Dann gehen wir wieder shopping for Gold und wechseln schnell wieder USD !

Dollar Crunch Puts Gold Centre Stage

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
The Telegraph, London
Monday, October 1, 2007

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/mon…/2007/10/01/ccview101.xml

The dominoes are toppling. What began as a credit crunch has turned into a dollar crunch. We are witnessing a run on the world's paramount reserve currency, an event that occurs twice a century or so, and never with a benign outcome.

The US dollar has fallen through parity against the Canadian dollar and plummeted to all-time lows against a basket of currencies. This is dangerous. None of the mature economic blocs seems able to take the strain, let alone step in to restore order.

Ultimately, Europe and Japan are in worse shape than the US. A mood of "sauve qui peut" is taking hold.

Is this what gold is sniffing as it breaks out against all currencies, smashing through 500 euros an ounce against the euro, and vaulting to a 28-year high of $743 against the dollar?

"Central banks have been forced to choose between global recession or sacrificing control of gold, and have chosen the perceived lesser of two evils," said Citigroup in a fresh report. "We believe that the policy resolution to the credit crunch will take the form of a massive, extended 'Reflationary Rescue,' in a new cycle of global credit creation and competititive currency devaluations. This could take gold to $1,000 an ounce or higher."

The report's authors, John Hill and Graham Wark, say the avalanche of central bank bullion sales earlier this year was "clearly timed to cap the gold price."

They do not explain this explosive allegation, long promoted by the gold group GATA. But it would not surprise me if the European Central Bank's motive for selling 37 tonnes in April and May was to hold the euro price of gold below E500.

Citigroup said the game was up once the Federal Reserve slashed rates a half point and opened the liquidity floodgates.

Talk of "competitive devaluations" is a new twist. Gold bugs often prattle about the dollar's demise -- condign punishment for a country that has amassed $3 trillion of net liabilities abroad, slashed its savings rate below zero, and spent itself into a debtor's gaol -- but they rarely ask what currency it is supposed to collapse against.

China is a leveraged play on US shopping malls. Japan is already buckling. Its economy contracted 0.3 percent in Q2. Wages have fallen for eight months in a row. The Abe government has fallen -- the first sub-prime victim, but not the last.

Until now, the euro has served as the "anti-dollar," the default choice for Asians and petrodollar powers wary of US assets. This cannot last.

A rate of $1.43 (it was 83 cents in 2000) will combine, after a one-year lag, with deflating property bubbles in the Club Med bloc to cause a crisis in 2008. It will then become clear that the needs of the Germanic and Latin zones are incompatible and that a coin with no treasury, debt union, or polity to back it up cannot displace the dollar -- if it survives at all.

Airbus is already underwater, unable to meet its dollar contracts unless it shifts plant from Europe. Every 10-cent rise in the euro costs E1 billion.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy is in guerrilla warfare against the European Central Bank, threatening to invoke Maastricht Article 109, which gives European Union politicians power to set a fixed exchange rate (by unanimity) or a "dirty float" (by majority).

The mood is moving his way. Eurogroup chair Jean-Claude Juncker has stopped pretending that all is well. "We have begun to have great concern about the exchange rate of the euro," he said.

Europe will not let America export its day of reckoning to the rest of the world. It will counter with its own devaluation.

No doubt Ben Bernanke will use all means to avert disaster, including the "printing press" he invoked in November 2002. By this he meant that the Fed could inject unlimited stimulus by purchasing as many bonds and assets as it wants. He believes the Fed could have avoided the Depression if it had been more creative in 1931.

Even so, I am not sure that the Bernanke Fed will move fast enough, given fears of moral hazard, or, indeed, whether the rate cuts on offer are enough to head off an insolvency crisis. The chart of S&P 500 looks eerily similar to October 1987, the last time a tumbling US dollar set off a crash.

A Bundesbank rate rise was the trigger then. If the ECB's hawks are pig-headed enough to ram through one last rise on October 4 we might see a replay.

Large parts of the global credit system are still shut. The $2.2 trillion market for commercial paper has shrunk by $368 billion over the past seven weeks as lenders refuse to roll over loans. The $2.5 trillion market for "structured finance" remains frozen.

US sales of new houses are down 21 percent in a year. Median prices have fallen 14 percent since March to $225,700. Builders are having to slash tariffs to move stock at all.

We wait to see what happens as "teaser rates" on some $1.5 trillion of mortgages jump with a venomous kick in coming months. The Fed should have thought about this three years ago when rates were 1 percent. It is too late now.

How do you play gold rally?

Citigroup says the mining shares are poised to surge after lagging badly, offering a "gold beta" leverage of 2.36. "The market is likely to be shocked at how much cash the major golds generate at $700 an ounce," Citigroup said.

It certainly looks as if gold has at last "decoupled" from the stock markets, regaining its role as the ultimate store of value. Whether the mining equities have decoupled is another matter.

If Wall Street takes a beating this autumn, the safest play is pure metal.

Is a market crash looming?

2007-10-1 14:45

London

This October marks the 20th anniversary of the 1987 stock market crash, the biggest one day post-war percentage drop for US markets.

\In a few short hours on Monday, October 19, 1987, the Dow industrials (DJI) gave up 508 points, or 22%, bringing an abrupt end to what had been a lively Wall Street party.

The crash came against a backdrop of inflation fears, rising oil prices, Middle East tensions and a host of other eerily familiar worry signs in Wall Street's most notorious month, and helped cement October's reputation as the toughest month for the markets, at least psychologically.

So, could it happen again?

Could the world's stock markets wake up one morning this month and suddenly find there is no 'bid' for shares and start plummeting?

Could someone mess up in the Middle East, where tensions are already high, and do something so completely unexpected that people suddenly just want out?

Uncertainty and fear in the markets

Or could an overheated market in Asia - Shanghai perhaps - suddenly roll over, sparking a cascading series of falls as complex, computer-driven derivative positions suddenly lose their footing leading to one great global belly flop?

Yes.

Uncertainty and fear are ever present agents in the markets and can overwhelm greed and optimism at any time. Unexpected geo-political and financial events are an ever present possibility.

And, as the absolute seizing up of the world's credit markets earlier this summer showed, financial regulators and central bankers have no more control of events and markets today than they did in 1987, though their reactions may have improved.

But a couple of points are worth keeping in mind.

Large scale events like the crash of 1987 generate enormous headlines and angst because of their sudden and dramatic nature. And of course they can be brutal for workers in the financial industries.

But $10 000 invested in the Dow on Friday, October 16, the last trading day before the crash, and held until the present would still have more than quintupled.

And if one is genuinely worried by the similarities between today's backdrop and that of October 1987 then there's always cash as an alternative.

On the other hand, if investors are feeling a bit more intrepid this month, perhaps because the Fed has managed to give equities a big push with its September rate cut, then our team of experts and commentators has a slew of ideas to consider.

Dow Jones