Massive Upside for Little Known Near-Term Uranium Producer
By David J. DesLauriers
07 Nov 2006 at 07:40 PM EST
TORONTO (ResourceInvestor.com) -- Energy Fuels [TSXv:EFR] is a near-term uranium producer which surprisingly has a very small following when compared to better known names like Urasia Energy [TSXv:UUU], International Uranium [TSX:IUC], SXR Uranium One [TSX:SXR] and Energy Metals [TSX:EMC]. Despite this, it is an excellent story - every bit as good as these others.
The company is currently completing a C$30 million financing, and has a post-private placement valuation at today’s close of C$2.60 per share, of C$120 million. Uranium investors will know that this compares extremely favourably with the names listed above and other so-called near-producer stories, which all boast valuations that are quite literally 5X – 10X that of EFR.
As readers will no doubt guess, we believe that Energy Fuels deserves a serious upward re-rating.
People
Resource Investor had the pleasure of speaking at some length with George Glasier, President & CEO of Energy Fuels about the company, and its growth plans.
Investors need to realize that Glasier (who used to be part of a management team that ran a 5 million pound per annum uranium producer) and the team that he has assembled, have mined uranium, built mills, run mills, gone through the permitting process – in short, these are highly experienced, highly skilled personnel.
This gives EFR a major competitive advantage, and also puts them in a class with just a small number of other uranium producers and near-term producers who have the ability to get the job done - and that is exactly what they intend to do.
Resources
Some uranium developers who never have a chance of becoming producers are building up large 43-101 compliant uranium resources in order to get the market’s attention – and their market capitalizations indicate that they are succeeding. Nevertheless, the reality is that they will never monetize that uranium.
EFR, on the other hand, has acquired properties which are the sites of old uranium mines, some of which are fully permitted. At Whirlwind for example, where a 3,000-foot decline provides direct access to the ore body, existing drill data will probably allow EFR to report 2-3 million pounds of uranium as compliant with the 43-101 criteria, by year-end. The reality is that existing work indicates clearly to those who are familiar with the business of mining that there are probably 8-10 million pounds of uranium at Whirlwind.
In fact, the global resource across EFR’s properties (press releases and SEDAR are the best places to get property info for EFR) probably totals something like 40-50 million pounds of uranium, even if it has to be relegated to the historical category, for the time being.
EFR management will not waste all of their shareholders’ money on expensive drilling programs to prove up these historical resources to 43-101 standards, when they already know that the material is there. What they will do is monetize the rock!
Production and Cash Flow
EFR is currently negotiating with International Uranium for the use of their White Mesa Mill. Both parties interests are aligned because IUC cannot feed the mill to its running capacity by 2008 and EFR feed will provide extra revenue while IUC develops its projects in the region. It is anticipated that a deal will be signed in late 2006, or early 2007.
At that point, EFR will begin stockpiling ore, ready for roughly a 100-day mill campaign in mid-2008 at IUC’s mill, which will produce about 1 million pounds of uranium and 5 million pounds of vanadium to EFR’s interest.
Vanadium has been as high as $22 in the last 18 months, and analysts see prices somewhere between $10-$15 going forward. Even at its current $8 per pound, the vanadium credit received by EFR totally offsets mining, transportation and milling costs, giving Energy Fuels a cost base of zero on its uranium production.
With 47 million shares outstanding post-financing, and at current uranium prices, 2008 cash flow would equate to $60 million, or well over C$1 per share!
EFR has already started the process of laying the ground-work for building a mill of their own, a development which will go full speed ahead in 2007, and it is anticipated that this new mill, call it the Energy Fuels mill, will be ready to roll by mid-2009. The cost of building a mill is about $50-$60 million but typically one can debt finance with a split of 70/30 debt to equity.
In addition to producing 1 million pounds of uranium and 5 million pounds of vanadium per year through the IUC mill under what will probably be a 3 to 4 year contract with International Uranium, EFR will also produce the same amount through their own mill, for a grand total of 2 million pounds of uranium production and 10 million pounds of vanadium production in 2009.
Simple math tells you that at current uranium prices, it is at least $120 million in cash flow, or well over C$2 per share!
We need not go into growth plans beyond that, to the 3-4 million pounds per annum level of uranium production, or contemplate what would happen if uranium prices were higher, because the above alone justifies a major multi-bagger return.
Conclusion
EFR’s current dramatically oversubscribed financing should provide enough money to take the company into production at IUC’s mill.
Some dilution may be needed to finance the equity portion necessary for the building of EFR’s proposed mill. Acquisitions of deposits with pounds in the ground (the company’s experienced and connected team is looking at some interesting properties which will excite the market), could also result in some dilution.
Despite this, at $3+ per share, which is where newsflow should take this story in short order, even another $30 million financing in 6 months time (which would be more than enough money to do everything) would have only a very small impact on the share structure, adding 10 million shares for a total of 57 million shares outstanding.
For that reason we believe that EFR can achieve C$1 in cash flow per share in 2008, and C$2 in cash flow per share in 2009 based on current uranium prices of $60, their cost base of $0, and projected production of 1 million pounds of uranium/5 million pounds of vanadium in 2008, going to 2 million pounds of uranium/10 million pounds of vanadium in ‘09.
Companies that have hedged out some of their uranium in long-term contracts, and companies operating in far less mining-friendly countries are achieving valuations of 30X to 60X cash flow per share thanks to the dearth of listed uranium producers. That being the case, it is fair to say that EFR, currently trading at only 2.6X 2008 cash flow at current uranium prices, is going much, much higher.
With those numbers in mind, and given a very conservative multiple of cash flow, an 18-month target of C$15 per share should be placed on EFR, assuming that the price of uranium stays flat.
If we go to $80 or $100 on yellowcake, hold on for the ride!
Quelle: Resource Investor, 7. Nov. 2006