GOLD : Märkte und Informationen

Peter Degraaf,Trader mit 50 Jahren Börsenerfahrung, mit Gold und -Aktiencharts -- und seine Meinung über Elliottwellen....

Gold ist keinesfalls "überpreist", wie es oftmals dargestellt wird.
Wie schon früher hier hereingestellt, ist der Chart und die Betrachtung Gold vs andere Währungen besonders beachtenswert.

"....Featured is the weekly chart that compares the price of gold to the long bond price. In an article I wrote in September (archived here), I wrote about the likelihood of an upside breakout occurring from the 8.50 level. The implications of this breakout are that bond holders will begin to realize the futility of holding bonds (as inflation is eating up all of the increase in price), and the need to switch into gold.
This breakout at 8.50 is from beneath an area of resistance that has lasted for almost two years and completes the formation of an ‘inverted head and shoulders’ pattern that has a target at 1150. As I mentioned in my previous article, this target coincides with a target for gold at $1,500.00, with a time frame of November-December 2010.

The reason this target makes sense is because fundamentals for a rising gold price have never been stronger......
As long as the holders of the long positions (primarily hedge funds), are satisfied that gold is not overpriced (having just broken out above the magic $1,000 level), the gold price can continue to rise.

Quoting from the most recent Hulbert letter: “The Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Indicator (HGNSI) has been stuck at 53.8% since Oct. 7. It has been as high as 89.58%. This lack of movement from the lower level is not consistent with a blow-off”.

Seine Attaccke gegen Prechter und seine Anhänger ist schon sehr heftig:

"...The most important drivers for gold are the unprecedented US budget deficits and the inexperience of the people in charge to deal with the problem. To paraphrase Sir Winston Churchill “Never in the history of mankind have so few thrown this much money at so many problems.”
Hardly a day goes by that I don’t receive a letter from someone who is spooked by the negative picture painted for gold by some analyst who subscribes to Elliott Wave Analysis.

Pay no attention to the Elliott Wave crowd that warns you of collapsing gold prices!
Their most popular guru is Robert Prechter who has been down on gold for the past 6 or 7 years, and has been wrong all this time! ...
Elliott Wave analysis works best when viewed in retrospect!
No phenomenon based on human action is a straight line up, down, or horizontal.
Substituting numerology for the harder work of thoughtful analysis is fool's play! ...."

http://www.kitco.com/ind/degraaf/oct222009.html

Grüsse

Zitat von wassergeist

... warum fällt mir hier der hofnarr ein.

edel - elli u. prechter da ist feuer erlaubt.

wg

Tja, die Elliotter sind momentan hier etwas ruhig geworden, schade eigentlich, so also weiter:

Noch jemand, der die Wellen nicht für Gold gelten läßt:

"I know the hard-core deflationists and Prechter followers are still waiting for Gold to collapse when the stock market takes its next brutal leg down. While I agree with such persons when it comes to the stock market, I disagree on Gold. Gold has started another strong bull leg higher. The stock market won't stop it from happening. A rise in the US Dollar Index won't stop it from happening. The Gold bull market is an independent secular bull market with its own drivers that include things besides US Dollar weakness...."

http://goldversuspaper.blogspot.com/

Grüsse

Eric Hommelberg, Gründer von GoldDrivers.com (EH), bereits hier zitiert --- GOLD : Märkte und Informationen ---
mit besonderen Anlageempfehlungen:

1. Die sicherste Anlage: 100 % in Gold physisch.
2. Die eigene Anlage.... : 50 % in Gold und Silber physisch, 50 % in PM Aktien.

„….TGR: What percentage of physical gold should be in a portfolio?

EH: That's very personal. It depends on how much risk you're willing to take. If you come up to me and you say, "I'm not willing to take any risk at all, nothing. I want to have the safest bet." Then I would say you should invest 100% of your money into physical gold. But if people ask me what I am doing, I'd say half of my money is in the physical metals— about 30% in physical gold, 20% in physical silver. I just split the remaining 50% in half—25% in senior shares and 25% into junior shares. And I spread the juniors' share among at least 10 different companies.

TGR: So your portfolio is all in precious metals, either physical or equities?

EH: Yes, that's correct….”

http://www.theaureport.com/pub/na/3183

Hinweis:
--- Sollte in einzelnen Punkten Übereinstimmung mit der Auffassung des Beitragsverfassers bestehen, sind diese rein zufällig.---

Grüsse
Edel Man

So eine Zusammenstellung von Argumenten für den weiteren Goldpreisanstieg.

Die Begründungen sind uns im einzelnen nicht so neu, aber sollten durchaus gelegentlich, wie hier, in Erinnerung gehalten werden. Hier zielen sie eher auf den weitestgehend desinformierten US Bürger.....

Die Empfehlungen zu ETF´s oder ABX sind mE. mehr als kritisch anzusehen.

Nach Einschätzung des Autors währt die sekuläre Goldhausse noch bis 2018; schaun wir mal...

"...Gold is in a Secular Bull Market.

Gold’s price has increased every single year since 2001. This is a clear signal that we are currently in the middle of a secular bull market for gold. A secular bull market typically last about 17 years and ends with a mania stage where investors throw the concept of supply and demand out the window and frantically invest in gold. We’ve seen this same pattern repeat itself over the last hundred years of investment history and we’re about to see a major run up in gold prices...."

http://www.moneymorning.com/2009/10/21/gold-report/

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Sinclair hat für dessen Einstellung wenig Verständnis, ich möchte da noch weiter gehen :
Was Roubini über Gold verbreitet, kann mit seinem Wissen und angeblicher Reputation nur als vorsätzliche Destruktion angesehen werden.

Zitat

So all the gold bugs who say gold is going to go to $1,500, $2,000, they’re just speaking nonsense. Without inflation, or without a depression, there’s nowhere for gold to go.

Sinclair meint offenbar diesen Artikel mit einem Crashszenario von Nouriel Roubini.

http://www.indexuniverse.com/s…rash-coming.html?Itemid=5

"Many in the gold family have their shorts in a knot concerning an article quoting Professor Roubini that unless we get extreme inflation or extreme deflation those like myself who say gold is going to $1224, $1650 and on to Alf’s numbers are wrong.

Professor Roubini admits that he has never favored gold which means he did not nor would he have owned it at any price.

Professor Roubini did not mention gold’s role as a currency nor its relationship to the US dollar.

Professor Roubini’s interview did not address the fact that extreme currency inflation has occurred in monetary history while debt was failing. That is the definition of hyperinflation, a currency event that will drive the gold price much higher than even I anticipate."

http://jsmineset.com/2009/10/24/in-the-news-today-349/

Grüsse
Edel Man

Zitat von sakura

Umgekehrt wird ein Schuh draus. Das kann man genauso als vorsichtige Ankündigung für eine Depression/Inflation lesen.

Ja, natürlich ist er clever genug, diese nicht auszuschließen. Umso verwunderlicher sein Seitenhieb auf die Gold Bugs, nunja, er ist mit Sicherheit keiner...
Sinclair weit ja zu recht darauf hin, daß Gold inzwischen eine bedeutende Rolle als monetäres Element gewinnt, unabhängig von Inflation / Deflation.
Hier der ganze Schlußabsatz des Interviews :

".... Roubini: I don’t believe in gold. Gold can go up for only two reasons. [One is] inflation, and we are in a world where there are massive amounts of deflation because of a glut of capacity, and demand is weak, and there’s slack in the labor markets with unemployment peeking above 10 percent in all the advanced economies. So there’s no inflation, and there’s not going to be for the time being.

The only other case in which gold can go higher with deflation is if you have Armageddon, if you have another depression. But we’ve avoided that tail risk as well. So all the gold bugs who say gold is going to go to $1,500, $2,000, they’re just speaking nonsense. Without inflation, or without a depression, there’s nowhere for gold to go. Yeah, it can go above $1,000, but it can’t move up 20-30 percent unless we end up in a world of inflation or another depression. I don’t see either of those being likely for the time being. Maybe three or four years from now, yes. But not anytime soon."
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Zitat von Waechter der Zeit

http://seekingalpha.com/articl…es-gold-is-he-wrong-again

Danke, und dann folgen noch 38 Leserkommentare. Auf die Schnelle: soweit ich das sehe, folgt keiner Roubini voll, aber viele kritisieren zu Recht, daß Robini sowohl die wirkliche Rolle des Goldes vs Dollar- und Fiatwährungen ignoriert, und verschweigt oder nicht erkennt, daß Gold inflationsbereinigt völlig unterbewertet ist.

Hier aber noch festzuhalten der nette Chart Öl + Gold

Grüsse

NS:
Hier der Kommentar eines wirklichen Fachmannes mit 50 Jahren Börsenerfahrung, Degraaf:

"Roubini is a smart guy. Having said that: He's schooled as a Keynesian and so you can't blame his ignorance for gold aswell as the fact that he concludes that the current spending policy has saved us from depression....

Look outside, look at the Hoovervilles poppin' all over America, look at the U6 unemployment... no depression like phenomenons?

I think he should make a move towards Austrian economics. Never too late to learn some more in my opinion. Roubini is still young compared to Summers. He should retire instantly."

http://seekingalpha.com/articl…source=article_sb_popular

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Moin

CIGA Eric bei Jim Sinclair mit seinem Kommentar zur fragwürdigen Goldeinschätzung des N.Roubini:
Beeindruckend die Kaufkraftentwicklung des $ über die Zeit.....

""Many in the gold family have their shorts in a knot concerning an article quoting Professor Roubini that unless we get extreme inflation or extreme deflation those like myself who say gold is going to $1224, $1650 and on to Alf’s numbers are wrong."

"Professor Roubini did not mention gold’s role as a currency nor its relationship to the US dollar."

No he didn’t. It reveals a picture of devaluation.

CIGA Eric"

http://jsmineset.com/2009/10/25/jims-mailbox-259/