Bud Conrad, Chefökonom von Casey Research, mit kritischen Aussichten der Weltwährungsreserve Dollar. C schätzt, daß um 2020 der Dollar von anderen größeren Volkswirtschaften nicht mehr zum Welthandel benötigt wird....
Sehenswerte Grafiken, die die sehr entgegenläufigen Entwicklungen der Wirtschaft der USA und Chinas darstellen.
"Case in point: US government debt is now over 100% of GDP, the level at which Greece became insolvent. The difference is that Greece couldn’t print euros to paper over its government debt, so it was on a much tighter leash.....
Because oil is priced in dollars, other countries need dollars to buy oil, even from the Middle East. That’s the #1 reason the central banks of the world have accumulated dollars as backing for their currencies: because dollars are useful for international trade. Plus, the US Treasury market is the largest and most liquid market on earth, so for foreigners, parking money in Treasuries is a logical choice, at least in the short term.
All of those factors helped America dominate the global economy. But other countries are catching up—like China, which is now the clear-cut #2 world economy. The US’s relative economic power has declined sharply in the past 30 years.....
Perhaps most importantly, the dollar’s reserve status is in steep decline too. In 2000, the dollar accounted for 55% of all foreign exchange reserves. In 14 short years, that number has dropped to 33%. By 2020, I project, it will drop to 20%. At that point, other large economies of the world won’t need dollars nearly as much for international trade. So America’s special privileges will continue to wane...“
http://www.caseyresearch.com/articles/the-dollar-under-siege
Grüsse
Edel
