Informationen über Öl

Zitat von Wurschtler

Bei Öl hatten wir ja nicht nur den Corona-Crash, sondern zusätzlich auch noch den (künstlichen) Konflikt Russland vs. Saudi-Arabien mit Fördermengenerhöhung statt Reduzierung.

ich sehe da keinen konflikt. der preiskampf dreht sich hauptsächlich um die ca 7,7 mio bpd ölproduktion der usa,
https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=847&t=6
die die letzten jahre (subventioniert) auf den weltmarkt gekommen sind.

sieht man auch an dem statement russlands(putin), keine verhandlungen über förderkürzungen ohne die beteiligung der usa an den produktionskürzungen.

bg bh

Bisher wurden alle Kürzungen der OPEC + Russland mit Erhöhungen des Outputs der Nordamerikanischen Fracker wettgemacht. Darauf hatten die Saudis + Russland wohl keine Lust mehr.
Deswegen haben sich gestern die Vertreter der US Ölindustrie bei Trump getroffen um deren Beitrag zur Kürzung der Fördermengen zu besprechen.

Vorletzte Woche hat der saudische König schon einen Anruf von 9 US Senatoren unter Führung von Ted Cruz erhalten, wo sie ihm mal erklärt haben wer die grösste Militärmacht der Welt ist und im Zweifel das saudische Öl verteidigt und was sie von einem solchen Freund erwarten-- nämlich nicht die Vernichtung von Hunderttausenden von Arbeitsplätzen in den USA durch einen ruinösen Preiskampf.

Nachdem sich jetzt die Hauptakteure "ausgetauscht" haben wird sich auf einen "Wohlfühlpreis" geeinigt (die Rede ist von 42 $). Sollte sich die Weltwirtschaft nach der Corona Krise wieder erholen und der Bedarf steigen wird der Preis sich auch wieder nach oben entwickeln.

Zitat von konterbande

Nachdem sich jetzt die Hauptakteure "ausgetauscht" haben wird sich auf einen "Wohlfühlpreis" geeinigt (die Rede ist von 42 $).

das wird sich zeigen, die meisten incl. walsltreet gehen doch noch davon aus,
das ende april der cov19 spuk beendet ist.
da wird das meiner überzeugung weltweit erst richtig losgehen.... -25+mio bpd verbrauch über mehrere monate, dann sehen wir mal wo öl steht, abgesehen von inflatorischer maßnahmen.... bei sich beschleunigender geldentwertung, ist vieles denkbar.

bg bh

Zitat von nicco

Kurzfristig wieder abwärts..

OPEC+ meeting delayed as Saudi Arabia and Russia row over oil price collapse: sources

Chance zum Sortieren am Montag. Wenn zwei (Ölprodutenten) sich streiten, freut sich der Dritte (Anleger).

oilprice.com Aramco Oil Pipeline Unit For Sale: Price War May Be Too Successful

saludos

Die Räuber ...
Der saudische Staatsfonds (Public Investment Fund) hat die Braderiepreise der letzten Wochen genutzt, um sich günstig bei diversen europäischen Ölfirmen (Equinor ASA, Royal Dutch Shell, Total SA und Eni SPA) einzukaufen.
April 9, 2020: Saudi Arabia's PIF buys stakes worth $1 bln in European oil cos amid industry downturn

Da kannste ja dran fühlen

saludos

Dr. Anas Alhajji sieht die Lage der US-Fracker nicht gerade optimistisch.
Egal was bei den OPEC+ Verhandlungen an Förderkürzungen hintenraus kommen mag.
Es gibt noch ein Problem mit zuviel Gas.

Trump’s Coming Oil Shock: Shale Can’t Cut Enough To Save Itself

saludos

Moin moin!

Zitat von Real de Catorce

Es gibt noch ein Problem mit zuviel Gas.

Ja, dieses Gas wurde lange Zeit einfach abgefackelt. Jetzt wird es über zwei neue Pipelines gesammelt und zum Teil als LNG exportiert. Eine dieser Pipelines soll mehr Gas befördern, als Shell in seinem größten Erdgasfeld im Golf von Mexiko fördert.

Saudi Arabien hat den von ihm ausgelösten Crash am Ölmarkt genutzt. Der Staatsfond hat für 1 Milliarde Dollar Aktien von Shell, Equinor, Total und Enel gekauft. Die Araber verstehen etwas vom Geschäft und haben die Börsenbubis über den Tisch gezogen. Der Killer an der Staatsspitze in S.A. darf sich jetzt über hohe Dividendeneinnahmen freuen.

Zum aktuellen Verhandlungsstand der OPEC+:

LG Vatapitta

Saudis haben diesen Crash selbst ausgelöst und haben sicher auch noch auf fallende Kurse gesetzt.

Ich glaube nicht, dass die Saudis wegen einer popeligen Millarde den Crash ausgelöst haben.
Entweder haben sie durch die Hintertür noch wesentlich mehr investiert, oder das war nur Zufall, weil sie ohnehin regelmäßig zukaufen.

PS: englische billion = deutsche Millarde

Here Is The "Secret Weapon" That Allowed Tiny Oil Producer Mexico To Defy Giant Saudi Arabia

It wasn't meant to be like this.
After the Saudis and Russia cobbled a historic OPEC+ oil production cut which at 10 million b/d was the biggest ever, and one which received the blessing - if not the participation - of Donald Trump, the rest of OPEC+ was supposed to applaud the two oil exporting giants who agreed to cut 23% of their, and everyone else's output, and fall in line agreeing to the terms that were imposed upon them in hopes of sending the price of oil slightly higher, because as a reminder even the agreed upon 10 million cut would do nothing to balance an oil market crushed by what Trafigura calculates was a record 36 million b/d drop in oil demand.

However, that did not happen because one country dared to stand up to not just Saudi Arabia, but also Russia and the rest of the OPEC cartel, and even forced Trump to bend to its will with the US president - desperate to get the price of WTI higher in hopes of avoiding mass defaults for the US shale industry - saying he would be responsible for Mexico's production cut balance.
That country is the southern US neighbor, Mexico, which pumps a relatively tiny 1.75 million b/d and which would have been forced to cap its output some 400,000 barrels lower to comply with the deal, however the most Mexico would agree to was a a minuscule 100kb/d cut - a number that is completely meaningless in the grand scheme of the oil market - yet one which openly defies Saudi Arabia which staked its reputation as OPEC's most powerful nation by guaranteeing that every OPEC member would agree to the 23% production cut.
What followed has been the most surreal "Mexican standoff", one which started during the OPEC teleconference on Thursday, continued on Friday when the G-20 was supposed to also join the production cut yet failed to do so over the confusion over Mexico's ongoing intransigence, and has not yet been resolved as of late on Saturday, with Mexico’s Energy Minister Rocio Nahle refusing to budge from her insistence that the country could only cut output by 100,000 barrels a day, 300,000 less than its fair share of 23% reductions by everyone in the OPEC+ group. On Friday morning, Mexican President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador said he had resolved the matter in a phone call with Trump. The U.S. would make an additional 250,000 barrels a day of cuts on Mexico’s behalf. But such a theatrical sleight of hand was not enough for the Saudis who would appear weak, and unable to reign in the cartel's members, would risk cheating and excess production by virtually every smaller OPEC member who would feel, rightfully so, that it is unfair for Mexico to get preferential treatment.
As a result, two days after oil surged on hopes of (at least) a 10mmb/d cut, the deal that was supposedly finalized on Thursday has yet to emerge, with the that come Sunday evening when trading reopens, Brent could plunge as the production cut ends in disarray.
But why is Mexico risking the collapse of OPEC, and another sharp plunge in oil prices, by refusing to comply with the deal - after all if Mexico cuts just another 250K barrels in output from its adjusted total it will unlock if not higher prices, then at least avoid an even sharper plunge in the price of oil. Sure, it may not balance the market, and $50 Brent won't come back for a long time, but avoiding another dramatic plunge in oil would be worth the cut, right?
Well, no because while that would be the reasonable economic equation for all other OPEC members, Mexico has always had what Bloomberg dubbed a "sector weapon" up its sleeve, one which incentivizes Mexico's president to either get his way, or watch as oil craters... and get paid billions.
We are talking of course about Mexico's famous annual oil hedge, which in recent years has manifested itself mostly in the form of billions of dollars spent on oil puts, which we profiled extensively back in 2016 and 2017.
As Bloomberg's Javier Blas, who has closely followed Mexico's oil hedgers in the recent past writes, for the last two decades, Mexico has bought "Asian" style put options from some of the most prominent US investment banks and oil companies, in what’s considered Wall Street’s largest - and most closely guarded - annual oil deal. The options give Mexico the right to sell its oil at a predetermined price. They are the equivalent of an insurance policy: the country banks all gains from higher prices but enjoys the security of a minimum floor. So - unlike all of its OPEC peers - if oil prices remain weak or plunge even further, Mexico will still book higher prices.
In 2016, Mexico spent $1.03 billion to protect itself from a downturn in prices, according to data released in the quarterly budget balance. In recent years, Mexico has spent an average $1 billion buying the hedges. The hedge first appeared in 2001, when Mexico made a tentative showing, spending just $217.3 million on put options, a fraction of the approximately $1 billion a year it would spend later. In 2003 and 2004, with oil prices rising, the country opted not to hedge at all. The strategy came into its own in 2005: Mexico has hedged every year since without interruption, giving it a unique peace of mind that should a worst case scenario happen, it would be able to sleep soundly a t night. Agustín Carstens, who later became head of the central bank, was finance minister when a massive $5.1 billion payout came in 2009; some government officials also refer to the annual oil bet as "the Agustínian hedge"; then in 2015, after the OPEC Thanksgiving massacre of 2015, the hedge made $6.4 billion and another $2.7 billion in 2016 after Saudi Arabia waged another failed price war aimed to crushing US shale producers.
Mexico's annual spending on its hedge with Wall Street banks is shown in the chart below.

[Blockierte Grafik: https://zh-prod-1cc738ca-7d3b-4a72-b792-20bd8d8fa069.storage.googleapis.com/s3fs-public/styles/inline_image_desktop/public/inline-images/cost%20of%20hedging.jpg?itok=PCUxiMDn]
Unfortunately for the rest of the world's oil producers, only Mexico had the foresight to hedge an outcome such as the one we are seeing now, and that is giving Mexico unprecedented leverage to demand... pretty much anything, even preferential treatment from its OPEC peers.
...
Slashing 400,000 barrels a day to comply with the OPEC+ deal, rather than the 100,000 barrels a day that Mexico has counter-offered to Saudi Arabia, would put on hold his ambitious plan to return Pemex to its former glory.
But a token 100,000 cut - one which flaunts the Saudi demands for equal sacrifice by all the cartel members - is unacceptable to Crown Price MbS, hence the Mexican standoff continues.

The insurance policy isn’t cheap," Mexican Finance Minister Arturo
Herrera told broadcaster Televisa on March 10. “But it’s insurance for
times like now. Our fiscal budget isn’t going to be hit." Pemex, the
state-owned company, has its own separate, smaller oil hedge.
As Bloomberg reports, Mexico has disclosed very few details about its insurance for 2020 after it declared the sovereign hedge a state secret. However, based on limited public information, alongside historical data about previous years, it’s possible to make a rough estimate of the potential payout if prices remain low. The government told lawmakers it has guaranteed revenues to support the assumptions for oil prices made in the country’s budget - of $49 a barrel for the Mexican oil export basket, equivalent to about $60-$65 a barrel for Brent crude.
Mexico locks in that revenue via two elements: the hedge, and the country’s oil stabilization fund. The fund historically has only provided $2-$5 a barrel, so one can assume that Mexico hedged at $45 a barrel at least for its crude. In the past, Mexico has hedged around 250 million barrels, equal to nearly all its net oil exports in an operation that runs from Dec. 1 to Nov. 30.
Putting these calculations together suggests that if the Mexican oil export basket were to remain at current levels, the country would receive a multi-billion dollar payout. Since December, the Mexican oil basket has averaged $42 a barrel.
In other words, if current low prices for Mexican oil continue until the end of November, the average would drop to just above $20 a barrel, and the hedge would pay out close to $6 billion, according to Bloomberg News calculations.
In short, Mexico may be far more incentivized to see oil prices stay low, or drop lower, than rebound modestly while also losing out on an additional 250kb/d in potential output.
It is this math that is threatening to collapse not only the production cut deal, but OPEC itself because if the Saudis are seen as too weak to get even tiny oil exporters Mexico to heel - and absent MbS paying AMLO billions they won't be able to - then all bets are off as Riyadh loses what little respect it had before the deal. and the "cartel" becomes an every oil producer for himself free for all.

https://www.zerohedge.com/comm…o-defy-giant-saudi-arabia

bh bh

Danke @Blue Horseshoe,

Mexiko hat sich mit seinem Angebot nur um 100.000 Barrel zu kürzen Dank der Absicherung seiner Rohölexporte durchgesetzt. Die freuen sich immer über besonders niedrige Preise, da sie dann einen Ausgleich von den US-Banken erhalten.

Sputnik schreibt am 11.04., dass es bis Jahresende eine Kürzung von 8 Mio. Barrel täglich und ab Januar 2021 von weiteren 6 Mio. Barrel täglich geben solle.

In Cash hatte ich am 12.04. gelesen, dass man sich auf eine Kürzung von 9,7 Mio. Barrel täglich geeinigt habe, die schrittweise bis April 2022 zurückgefahren werden solle.

Wir werden noch erfahren, was tatsächlich vereinbart wurde.

LG Vatapitta

@vatapitta bitte, gern geschehen - freut mich wenn andere auch etwas rausziehen können.

ich möchte derzeit meine positionen noch nicht weiter ausbauen... ich halte stärkere rücksetzer bei öl und gas für möglich. alleine der globale tourismus steht für 10% des welt gdp.

manche schätzungen gehen ja von -30% bpd aus, also bei ca 90mio bpd verbrauch vor der krise eher ein negativ-wachstum von 25-30 mio bpd.

da ist es bei voll- laufenden öllagermöglichkeiten etc auch nicht mit einem production cut von 9,7 mio bpd getan...

was passiert dann noch sollte eine zweite covid wave im herbst umlaufen...

spannende zeiten...
bg bh

FIRST STAGE OF OIL DEMAND DESTRUCTION: U.S. Supply Of Petroleum Products Down 7 Million Barrels Per day

The U.S. is only in the FIRST STAGE of the country’s oil demand destruction. Since the nationwide shutdown announced by the U.S. Government in mid-March, domestic oil demand has fallen more than 7 million barrels per day. In just the past three weeks, the total U.S. petroleum products supplied to the market fell by 33%.
However, I don’t believe we have seen the low yet in U.S. total oil demand. According to the EIA – U.S. Energy Information Agency, total petroleum products supplied to the market on April 3rd were 14.4 million barrels per day (mbd) compared to 21.5 mbd for March 13th.

[Blockierte Grafik: https://srsroccoreport.com/wp-…ly-Apr-3-2020-768x511.png]

Over the next 3-4 weeks, I see the total U.S. petroleum products supplied to the market falling to the 12 mbd level (or even lower). With 96% of U.S. airline passenger traffic now lost and a 65-75% reduction of domestic vehicle traffic, the data released for April 3rd still haven’t factored in all the demand destruction.
For example, U.S. gasoline supplied to the market is down 48% while Jet fuel is off 56%. When U.S. gasoline supplies fall by 60-75% and Jet fuel down by 80%, then we will likely reach a bottom. However, this doesn’t include other petroleum products such as Propane/Propylene (1.1 mbd) and other oils (3.7 mbd):
[Blockierte Grafik: https://srsroccoreport.com/wp-…ly-Apr-3-2020-768x524.png]

As we can see, gasoline supplies fell the most in volume, followed by jet fuel. If we just focus on U.S. gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, the total products supplied fell 5.8 mbd, or 38%. Diesel supplies are holding up rather well due to the critical transportation via semi-tractors, rail, and ship… all which use diesel fuels.
Unfortunately, there are secondary negative impacts that are now taking place due to the massive drop-off in gasoline demand. U.S. ethanol production has also fallen off a cliff because most gasoline sold in the country is blended with 10% ethanol. So, if there is less gasoline demand, there will be less ethanol needed.
[Blockierte Grafik: https://srsroccoreport.com/wp-…ly-APR-3-2020-768x512.png]

And what about the petroleum products that aren’t used for transportation??? What about the millions of barrels of petroleum that are used to make thousands of products, such as PLASTICS and PAINTS, for example?
With the U.S. Automobile Industry at a virtual standstill, how is this impacting the demand for petroleum products?? Good question. Well, according to ROAD & SHOW article, COVID-19 and plant closures: The automotive industry’s response to the pandemic, most of the auto-plants in the country will be shut down for at least a month. So, how much plastic goes in each vehicle today??
In the article, Plastics use in vehicles to grow 75% by 2020, says industry watcher, the typical car will incorporate about 350 kg of plastic, or 772 pounds of plastic. I did some rough calculations and found that about 2.5 pounds of plastic come from a gallon of oil. Thus, each car will consume more than 7 barrels of oil just for the plastic used in each vehicle.
With approximately 1.5 million vehicles not produced in a month due to the shutdown of auto-plants in the United States, that would equate to a loss of 10.5 million barrels of oil. And, this is just one product in the entire supply chain. So, as we can see, there is a great deal of petroleum product demand destruction taking place, besides what is burned in cars, trucks, trains, and ships.

vollständiger artikel https://srsroccoreport.com/fir…-million-barrels-per-day/

bg bh

Wird der Ölpreis dieses Jahr nochmal über 20 Dollar steigen?

Zitat von Goldmeister99

Wird der Ölpreis dieses Jahr nochmal über 20 Dollar steigen?

steht er doch, zumindest brent steht bei knapp 30.

[Blockierte Grafik: https://www.finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?t=QA&p=d1&rev=637225164742068024]
[Blockierte Grafik: https://www.finviz.com/fut_chart.ashx?t=CL&cot=067651&p=d1&rev=637225165359520443]

krasser spread(knapp 50%) von wti auf brent....

bg bh