kleiner(!) Auszug aus dem Blog von Goehring & Rozencwajg vom 13.9.2024
ZitatAlles anzeigenToday, we find ourselves at a similar juncture.
Gold has rallied from its 2015 low of $1,051 to an all-time high of $2,500, while the HUI has risen from 100 to 312. Gold stocks now make up just 0.50% of the S&P 500, a figure reminiscent of the market bottom in 2015 rather than speculative tops.
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Their NAV has tripled, using a 10% discount rate and $2,200 gold price and their real option value has risen by a similar magnitude. Despite this, they currently trade at just 0.60x their DCF value and 0.38x their real option value—levels not seen since 1999.
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At the most extreme reading earlier this year, these companies were valued at just $292 per ounce of proven reserve, or 12% of the spot price—again, the lowest on record.
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By April 2024, gold stocks were as cheap as they have ever been. The only comparable period is the market bottom in 2015. However, unlike 2015, gold is now at an all-time high.
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saludos
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