Adam Hamilton spricht in seinem wie üblich sehr detailreichen aber auch langatmigen Artikel auch einige Punke an, die hier aktuell erörtert werden. Dabei geht er ins Detail mit den Komponenten des GDX, Details mag jeder dort entnehmen.
U.a.spricht er sinkende Produktion an, die hier zuvor der CEO von Gold Fields Telfer mit anbahnendem Peak Gold erwähnte, auch sehenswert die Übersicht der Kosten, insbes. AISC und CF
Einige wichtige Auszüge aus meiner Sicht:
"GDX is effectively the gold-mining industry's blue-chip index, including the biggest and best publicly-traded gold miners from around the globe...
GDX's 34 largest components now account for a whopping 92.1% of its total weighting! These elite miners dominate world gold mine production, which ran 770.0 metric tons in Q1'18 according to the World Gold Council's recently-released Q1 Gold Demand Trends report. The top 34 GDX gold miners reported collectively mining 286.5t of gold last quarter, nearly 3/8ths of the world's total!...
Overall these top 34 GDX companies mined 9.2m ounces of gold in Q1'18, which was down a sharp 4.6% YoY. This was actually contrary to the industry trend too. The World Gold Council's new read on Q1's fundamentals showed global gold mine production actually rising 1.4% YoY! Yet the top 10 GDX stocks commanding 60.3% of this ETF's total weighting all saw gold declines averaging a major 7.4% YoY....
So even the world's biggest and best gold miners are struggling to grow production. While that isn't good for those individual miners, it's super-bullish for gold. ... Some analysts even think peak goldhas been reached, that world mine production will decline indefinitely...
With the top 34 GDX gold miners' production down 4.6% YoY in Q1, I would've bet their AISCs would've risen a proportional 4% to 5%. Yet their cost control was outstanding, as these elite gold miners reported average AISCs up just 0.7% YoY to $884 per ounce! ...
So overall the major gold miners' fundamentals looked really strong in Q1'18, a stark contrast to the miserable sentiment plaguing this sector. Gold stocks' vexing consolidation since early 2017 isn't the result of operational struggles, but purely bearish psychology. That will soon shift as stock markets inevitably roll over and gold surges, making the beaten-down gold stocks a coiled spring overdue to soar dramatically..."
http://www.321gold.com/editori…ilton/hamilton051818.html
Grüsse
Edel