Uran -- Märkte und Informationen

https://euobserver.com/climate/153891

edit: hier müsste der Artikel ganz zu lesen sein: t.co/2Fxt3iffVj

siehe Mittelteil

Commission experts call on EU not to label nuclear 'green'

Thirteen members of the EU Commission's Technical Expert Group (TEG) put out a petition on Tuesday (21 December) calling on nuclear energy not to be labelled as 'green'.
"We recommend that nuclear fission has no place on the EU taxonomy of sustainable activities," the group, led by Dawn Slevin, a financial expert and core member of the commission's financial stability TEG, wrote.
Dealing with the "do no significant harm" principle in the taxonomy, they concluded nuclear may damage the environment due to the need to store it in underground bunkers for thousands of years, and "because the risk of a severe nuclear accident cannot be excluded, even in the best commercially available nuclear power plants."
They also warn against politicisation of the rules. "Proponents of nuclear energy use the taxonomy to put a 'scientific' stamp on what is primarily a political position on nuclear fission energy aiming to satisfy the few EU member states that wish to promote the associated technologies," the petition states.
France is spearheading an alliance of 10 member states that argue that nuclear fission and gas-fired power plants should be included in the taxonomy.
The TEG members point out that France and Finland are currently the only EU countries actively building nuclear facilities.
The Finnish Olkiluoto-3 was meant to start generating power in 2009, followed by the French Flamanville-3 in 2012.
However, both are still not operational, tripling anticipated costs, the group wrote. The group includes Paolo Masoni, a nuclear engineer, and Eric Laes, a post-doctoral researcher specialising in atomic energy at the Technical University of Eindhoven.
Politicised debate
In recent months, the decision on whether to include nuclear and gas in the taxonomy has become politicised.
Last week, EU internal market commissioner Thierry Breton told five European newspapers, including Die Welt, that "it is a lie that the EU can become CO2-neutral without nuclear power."
French president Emmanuel Macron said last week that France and Germany will try to find a compromise on whether the EU should label nuclear and gas as green investments.

But on Monday, the German Greens, part of the new ruling coalition, came out strongly against nuclear, reiterating their opposition to the inclusion of nuclear in the taxonomy.
"The German government's stance is that nuclear power is not one of the sustainable forms of energy [that] remains," environment minister Steffi Lemke told fellow EU environment ministers in Brussels on Monday.
German climate and economics minister Robert Habeck later echoed his colleague on German radio Deutschlandfunk, saying: "I do not think nuclear power is the right technology."

Da sind die "Richtigen Hohlblöcke" am Werk

However, chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) did not make such a clear statement at the last EU summit on Friday - and admitted Germany will probably not be able to stop the French push for nuclear.
"France is taking a different path [than Germany]. Other countries do as well," he said.
"That is why it's important that you can follow your paths and at the same time stay together across Europe," he added.
The commission planned to present its decision on nuclear and gas on Wednesday, but this has been postponed until mid-January next year.
It now plans to consult a draft version of the taxonomy with member states before the end of the year or at the start of January 2022 - a process that will be clarified on Wednesday.
The Sustainable Finance Platform, a group of 57 NGOs, scientific and financial experts will also be consulted.
The commission has faced backlash in the past from some of its members, including one of the signatories of the petition, for allowing gas an nuclear to be considered in what was meant to be a science-led exercise.

ach alles halb so wild - "its transitory" also die preisanstiege und marktverknappung.

die dumschlandregierenden werden verdammt aufpassen müssen, nicht von ihrer revolution gefressen zu werden.

sogar bloomberg bringt alle tage bereits artikel...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news…-toll-on-heavy-industries

Europe’s Energy Crisis Is Taking Its Toll on Industrial Giants

• Metals smelters and fertilizer producers are curbing output
• European gas surged 800% this year, while power gained 500%

[Blockierte Grafik: https://assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/i_ZVOLy6N580/v2/pidjEfPlU1QWZop3vfGKsrX.ke8XuWirGYh1PKgEw44kE/620x-1.png]

... popcorn für die nächsten wochen & monate steht bereit.

its all set and ready to goblow

bg bh

https://tass.com/economy/1379311

Russia may face uranium raw materials shortage by 2030-2035, ministry says
The ministry noted that although Russia possesses significant uranium reserves, most of the ores are of low quality

MOSCOW, December 22. /TASS/. Russia may face a shortage of uranium raw materials by 2030-2035, due to depletion of developed deposits, the Natural Resources Ministry said in a report on the state and use of mineral resources in Russia in 2020.
"It possible that a shortage of uranium raw materials suitable for development in the current economic conditions may emerge in Russia by 2030-2035, which is due to the depletion of reserves of developed uranium deposits," the document says.
The ministry noted that although Russia possesses significant uranium reserves, most of the ores are of low quality. This makes it difficult or impossible to mine them in modern economic conditions.
According to the state report, as of January 1, 2021, the recoverable uranium reserves in the A+B+C1 categories total 327,100 tonnes, and in the C2 category - 383,500 tonnes. At the same time, the volume of production of uranium raw materials at the end of 2020 amounted to 2,897 tonnes, while the increase in uranium reserves due to geological exploration reached 281 tonnes.
In Russia, uranium is produced by the enterprises of the Atomredmetzoloto holding, which is part of the Rosatom state corporation.

--

nunja zum shortage - die zeit wird es zeigen, ich gehen allenfalls von einem shortage aus was den export angeht. nicht umsonst haben sie im juni/juli die entscheidung publiziert ELKON zu entwickeln:

Zitat von Blue Horseshoe

russland /rosatomprom bringt die größte uranmine der welt(elkon) wieder "online" und entwickelt sie weiter.
elkon reserve 357.000 tonnen.
geplante produktion ab 2025 - ausbau innerhalb von 10 jahren auf 5.000/t // 13.000.000 pfund per anno.

thebarentsobserver.com/en/indu…st-global-uranium-project

zu elkon:
Uran -- Märkte und Informationen

bg bh

https://nuclearforclimate.com.au/plants-for-australia/

Nuclear Plant Options for Australia

Edition 2, Revised 6/12/2021
Nuclear Plant Options for Australia
The field of options for nuclear power plants is increasing rapidly.
In Canada, Ontario Power Generation is pushing ahead with the new BWRX 300 small nuclear power plant. In the UK, Rolls Royce has secured government funding for their new 470MWe small nuclear power plant with the potential to construct sixteen units on their grid.
We advocate for building plants in the near term and certainly before Australia has torn apart its existing grid.
Our first plants should use a proven design with a proven supply stream of equipment. It is also vital that the vendor can team up with a contractor and project management team that has recently delivered plants.
Large Reactor Options

Much enthusiasm exist around small nuclear power plants often referred to as “Small Modular Reactors” or SMR’s.
In Australia we can use large and small plants together. Large plants could be built tomorrow were it not for politics and a badly designed energy market. We have suitable locations in NSW and Victoria at the strong nodes of our grid. Small nuclear power plants could complement these large units where the grid is weaker.
There are currently 51 nuclear power plants under construction worldwide not including prototypes. Only seven of these are being constructed using plants from the USA (AP1000) or France (EPR) which have incurred significant time and cost over-runs. This happens when countries try to restart the nuclear industries. The rest are of Russian, Chinese and South Korean origin that may reflect a truer benchmark cost.
Over 100 power reactors with a total gross capacity of about 120,000 MWe are on order or planned and only a couple in the USA are Small Modular Reactors.
Many of the nuclear power plants currently under construction or planned are in nations of far less wealth than Australia and/or with more constrained grids. These include Bangladesh, Argentina, Romania, Turkey, Egypt, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, Finland, Hungary, Slovakia, Ukraine, Belarus and Uzbekistan. It is not credible to assume that all these nations are failing to maintain competitive power prices with nuclear energy.
Reactors currently being built and/or exported around the world are:

1. AP1000 (1150 MWe) from Westinghouse.
2. APR-1400 (1400 MWe) marketed by Korea Electric Power Corporation.
3. VVER 1200 and 1000 models from OKB Gidropress in Russia.
4. EPR – Evolutionary Pressurised Water Reactor from EDF in France.
5. Hualong One 1150MWe pressurised water reactor from CGN/CNNC in China.
6. Candu EC 6 (700 MWe) from Canada.
7. ABWR – Advanced Boiling Water reactor from Hitachi GE.

Of these reactors, the Westinghouse AP1000, the ABWR and the APR 1400 are licensed by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission in the United States.

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bg bh

Zitat von Blue Horseshoe

6. japan`s muss die reactoren wieder hochfahren und sogar neue bauen wenn sie die pariser klimaschutzziele erreichen wollen bis 2030(soweit ich gelesen habe rangiert die zahl zwischen 25 bis 35 reaktoren)

https://www.afr.com/world/asia…GQnRILjs6jNP1ghopvkpZQ6tA

Japan says nuclear energy crucial to hitting net zero goal by 2050

Tokyo | Nuclear power will be essential if Japan is to reach its goal of net zero carbon emissions by 2050, the country’s energy minister has told the Financial Times, saying that power shortages this winter have helped to shift public debate over the sector.
Heavy snowfalls that brought Japan to the brink of power cuts last month underlined the continued need for nuclear, said Hiroshi Kajiyama, who is responsible for energy in his role as minister for economy, trade and industry.

The comments reflect a dramatic shake-up in Japanese policy as it shifts back to focus on reducing emissions after a decade of relying on fossil fuels in the wake of the Fukushima nuclear disaster.
METI is debating a new energy strategy to deliver Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga’s pledge of zero net emissions by 2050. But achieving this will mean big changes in a country where 88 per cent of the energy supply comes from fossil fuels, almost all of them imported.
Renewables will be the top priority, said Mr Kajiyama, but the limitations of Japan’s geography will require deploying all available technologies, including imported hydrogen, nuclear power and carbon capture and storage.
“Personally, I think nuclear power will be indispensable,” said Mr Kajiyama, who has previously worked in the nuclear industry.
Japan’s electricity supply was “touch-and-go” during heavy snowfalls last month, he said. “Solar wasn’t generating. Wind wasn’t generating.” Electricity prices rocketed and parts of the country were close to power cuts. “I’m trying to persuade everybody that in the end we need nuclear power,” he said.
...
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bg bh

SMRs: target 2030
23 December 2021

Deployment by the end of the decade could make small modular reactors (SMRs) an industrial power option
[Blockierte Grafik: https://image.digitalinsightresearch.in/Uploads/ImageLibrary/Active/2017Q3/5.PMI/NEI_2022/NuScale.jpg]
There are upwards of 70 small modular reactor (SMR) designs under investigation in 17 countries, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency. That is a huge amount of global development activity, but the world needs commercial rollout if those reactor designs are to make a useful contribution to our future zero carbon electricity mix. How close are we to full scale deployment of SMRs?
Recently there has been good news in crossing what is often referred to as the ‘valley of death’ in technology commercialisation – the leap from development to commercial rollout.
First, that is because a pipeline is building of reactor designs that, crucially, are licensed by national regulatory authorities. In September 2020, the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) issued Standard Design Approval for the NuScale SMR and in the next step the NRC invited comments on a rulemaking that would certify NuScale’s standard reactor design, which means that customers can move forward with plans to develop NuScale power plants. Comments closed on the rulemaking at the end of October.
Also, in October Kairos Power took a step on the same route when it announced that it had submitted the preliminary safety analysis report for its fluoride saltcooled, high-temperature reactor to the NRC as part of its application for a construction permit for the Hermes low-power demonstration reactor. The application to construct the test reactor at a site in Oak Ridge has now been docketed by the NRC and "barring unforeseen delays" staff expect environmental and safety reviews to be completed by September 2023.
The USA is not the only country moving forward. In Canada, Global First Power (GFP) has applied for a licence to prepare a site for its 15MWt Micro Modular Reactor (MMR) at Chalk River in Ontario and the application is in the technical review phase of the Canadian Nuclear Safety Commission’s (CNSC) licensing process. The UK’s Office for Nuclear Regulation, meanwhile, has modernised its Generic Design Acceptance (GDA) process to adapt it for advanced nuclear technologies. Rolls-Royce said its application to begin the GDA for its 470MWe small modular reactor has already been submitted, and the company hopes to be “in with regulators in January next year.”
The second reason for the leap is that operating experience is being amassed from plant that have already passed licensing review and entered operation.
Russia’s Akademik Lomonosov floating nuclear power plant marked its first year in operation in May 2021. In September, startup was achieved for China’s HTR-PM, which began construction in December 2012. This is regarded as an industrial demonstration plant, and it has two reactor units driving a single 200MW turbine. Also in an advanced stage of construction is the 27MW Argentine CAREM (a prototype of a 150-300MW commercial design).
Opportunity and challenge
SMRs present an opportunity to the nuclear industry but it should not be forgotten that they also represent a new challenge. Despite the aims of replication and series build, the existing industry is built on a model of major infrastructure planning akin to an international airport or rail hub: sites are agreed and planned in collaboration with government, as is funding and financing. An industry model that sees scores of reactors built, often on new sites, requires a different approach.
That is clear in the licensing process that has already been applied to SMRs, and in some instances it challenges long-held assumptions about how nuclear should be designed and operated. For example, one requirement that had to be suspended for NuScale specified a dedicated control room and minimum number of operators for each nuclear unit – but the NuScale design would see an array of small reactors operated from one control room. That issue will arise in a different form when other SMR or micro reactor designs, some of which use remote operation, enter the licensing process.
Similarly, a new approach to site selection will also be required, on an industrial model that is appropriate for sites in the tens and hundreds rather than one or two per country. Regulators have to be ready to manage that issue, as we are seeing the real beginning of a ‘fleet’ approach to SMRs.
A few months ago NuScale Power took a step in this direction by signing memoranda of understanding with two Polish organisations that could open up a fleet of potential sites. One is based on power generation sites that will need to be repurposed: together with Oklahoma-based integrated energy company Getka Group and Polish energy company Unimot it is scoping coal-fired generation sites in Poland that could house SMRs.
GE Hitachi Nuclear Energy, BWXT Canada Ltd and Poland-based Synthos Green Energy (SGE) have also signed a letter of intent to cooperate in deploying BWRX-300 SMR in Poland. SGE, together with its partners, wants to deploy at least ten BWRX-300 SMRs in Poland by the early 2030s.
John Hopkins, Chair and CEO of NuScale Power, said SMRs were “an ideal flexible clean energy solution to repurpose retiring coal fueled power plants and most importantly, retain and retrain the skilled power plant workforce already in place in these Polish communities.”
Similar arguments have been put forward in the USA for housing SMRs at sites where coal fired stations are closing or have already closed.
In addition to a skilled workforce such sites also are likely to have other key resources – grid connections, water supply and civil infrastructure – that could potentially reduce the capital cost of installing SMRs.
Similarly, another US SMR developer, TerraPower. is discussing plans to build its first-of-a-kind Natrium demonstration project at the site of a retiring coal plant in Wyoming. The design includes a molten salt energy storage system and it is being developed with GE Hitachi Nuclear Energy (GEH) and engineering and construction partner Bechtel.
A second route to securing sites would see SMRs take the place of small gas or diesel installations. This is of particular interest in remote or otherwise inaccessible sites where installing conventional power and transporting fuel supplies is complex and expensive. In practice, such sites help make the economics of early SMR units look favourable compared with current solutions.
Russia’s Akademik Lomonosov floating nuclear power plant, for example, is said to be planned for this purpose. Its two 35MWe KLT40S SMR units can power a city of about 100,000 people and provide heat alongside that can be used for local heat customers or for seawater desalination (producing up to 240 000 cubic metres of drinking water per day).
NuScale has also seen such remote sites as a potentially fruitful. It has joined forces with Polish copper and silver miner KGHM and with PBE Molecule to provide power to the mining company’s production plants. This co-operation would see the development and construction initially of four SMRs and potentially up to a dozen (with installed capacity of around 1GW).
What’s the in-service date?
These collaborations envisage 2030 as the target in-operation date. “The changes in the climate are forcing us to take decisive actions. We are already feeling the impact, including in a financial sense, connected among others with the increases in energy prices. The construction of small nuclear reactors by 2030 is a solid declaration and an element our energy transformation. We are pioneers in Poland, as we expect that the first of our nuclear power plants will come online in 2029,” said Marcin Chludzinski, President of the Management Board of KGHM Polska Miedz SA.
The UK is looking at a similar timeframe. Tom Greatrex is chief executive of UK nuclear lobby group the Nuclear Industry Association. In a side meeting on new nuclear at the Conservative Party’s annual conference he said there were still a number of decisions that had to be made by the Rolls-Royce consortium and SMRs were “Not able to be deployed in the next few years”. He added, “We may have the first in a decade but they are not available to be deployed tomorrow”.
In the USA, NuScale said it is “actively engaged with our manufacturing partners and will be ready to deliver the first NuScale power modules to a client in 2027”. It said that it expects the first NuScale 12-module reference plant to be fully operational in Idaho by 2030, with the first of 12 modules online by 2029 as part of Utah Associated Municipal Power Systems Carbon Free Power Project (CFPP),
In an interesting side note, Chludzinski also said SMRs will “substantially reduce the costs of operating our business,” raising the possibility that it could sell its excess to become a power supplier. “We plan to generate power commercially in order to assist in the green transformation of Poland and bring down costs for the average household,” added Chludzinski.
Models in which industry builds its own power generation and trades the excess have been commonly employed but they have been based on gas or renewables. It is an indication of how the potential industrialisation of nuclear, using SMRs, could revolutionise the sector.

bg bh

Also haben die alle die 70 im visier und da gibt es eine Pause? Oder keiner rechnet mit letzterem..

germanskis fürchten nix so sehr wie akw, dafür lassen sie sich sogar von den grünen sagen, dass sie im dunkeln zu sitzen haben.

dass es letztlich egal ist, wo ein akw hoch geht, ob in B, F, L, CH, A, CZ, PL, DK oder DE...können die Menschen mit german-boderline nicht verstehen, lieber läßt man den wind pusten und hofft, dass auch morgen die sonne wider scheint.

ist schon irre..

tenex!!!!:
https://tass.ru/ekonomika/13320011

"Die Rosatom-Tochter kündigte ein Rekordportfolio an Auslandsaufträgen in Höhe von 22 Milliarden Dollar an
Im Jahr 2021 wurden 31 neue Lieferverträge für Uranprodukte mit Kunden aus sieben Ländern unterzeichnet, so Techsnabexport

MOSKAU, 28. Dezember. /Russlands größter Exporteur und einer der weltweit größten Lieferanten von Uranprodukten Techsnabexport (Marke Tenex, ein Unternehmen der Rosatom State Corporation) hat für das Jahr 2021 einen Rekordbestand an Auslandsaufträgen in Höhe von 22 Mrd. USD bekannt gegeben. Der Umsatz von Tenex überstieg in diesem Jahr 2,6 Mrd. USD "dank der Arbeit in traditionellen und neuen Geschäftsbereichen", so der Pressedienst am Dienstag.

"2021 war für uns ein Rekordjahr in Bezug auf die wichtigsten wirtschaftlichen Leistungsindikatoren. Der Bestand an Auslandsaufträgen der Tenex-Gruppe hat 22 Milliarden Dollar erreicht", zitiert der Pressedienst Sergey Polgorodnik, Generaldirektor der TENEX, mit den Worten.

In dem Bericht wird betont, dass im vergangenen Jahr 31 neue Verträge für Uranprodukte mit Kunden aus sieben Ländern unterzeichnet wurden. Der Bericht hebt den Abschluss eines Vertrages zwischen der Uranium One Holding N. V., zu der Tenex gehört, hervor. V. und der kanadischen Alpha Lithium Corporation, um Zugang zur Erschließung einer Lithiumlagerstätte in Argentinien zu erhalten. Darüber hinaus verkaufte Uranium One Investments Inc. im Dezember 2021 alle Anteile an seiner Tochtergesellschaft Uranium One Americas, Inc. (USA) an Uranium Energy Corp. in den Vereinigten Staaten und setzt damit die Strategie der Optimierung des Uranportfolios von Tenex fort.

"Wir haben hart gearbeitet, um sicherzustellen, dass die Transaktion zu Bedingungen abgeschlossen wird, die für beide Seiten vorteilhaft sind. Die Tenex-Gruppe arbeitet im Rahmen ihres Kerngeschäfts weiterhin mit Partnern in den USA zusammen - wir liefern Uranprodukte pünktlich im Rahmen der bestehenden vertraglichen Verpflichtungen und beteiligen uns an Ausschreibungen mit wettbewerbsfähigen Angeboten. Ende 2021 haben wir fast das gesamte verfügbare Volumen an Exportlimiten bis 2028 im Rahmen der in SPAR festgelegten Mechanismen kontrahiert", kommentierte Sergey Polgorodnik.

Übersetzt mit http://www.DeepL.com/Translator (kostenlose Version)

bg bh

Heisst das nun dass die vor 28 keine Zusatzlieferungen mehr tätigen können , egal wie sich der Preis am Spot verhält?

EU-Kommission will Gas und Atomenergie als klimafreundlich einstufen

....womit ja eigentlich alle seit Monaten rechnen...

Denke, dass wird noch mal einen Turbo für die Uranaktien geben.
Der Plan einer strategischen Uranreserve der USA war auch lange bekannt, aber erst beim offiziellen Beschluß Ende 2020 legten die Uranaktien ein Feuerwerk hin. Bei SPUT lief es ähnlich. Nach Bekanntgabe der Übernahme im Frühjahr 2021 überschlugen sich die einschlägigen Kanäle mit Jubel, aber erst als die ersten größeren Urankäufe im Sommer getätigt wurden, reagierten auch die Aktien massiv....

https://www.golem.de/news/ener…us-japan-2201-162115.html

Ein großer Konzern und eine Behörde aus Japan wollen dem von Bill Gates mitgegründeten Startup Terrapower beim Bau des ersten Atomkraftwerks helfen.

Korea selected to participate in Egypt's nuclear power project

Korea has been selected to participate in the El-Dabaa nuclear power plant project in Egypt, playing a key role in the building of that country's first nuclear generator and adding another success in the campaign to promote Korea's relevant technologies and expertise overseas.
...

https://koreajoongangdaily.joi…aa/20220102155605169.html
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Uranium Story Part 16: Catalysts for 2022

The uranium market has corrected in the past month and we enter 2022 looking for near term catalysts. I will attempt to list those catalysts for 2022.
First, why the correction? The Omicron variant of COVID has spread across the world, throwing uncertainty into markets. In addition, the US Federal Reserve is tapering bond purchases and has made controlling inflation (no longer “transitory”) their prime goal. This means hiking up interest rates. On top of that, Sprott has been unable to buy more uranium through their trust, as share prices have corrected. The trust is frequently at a discount to NAV and unable to issue more trust units to fund uranium purchases. Finally, the uranium spot price has decreased to the low $40s per pound.
Uranium equities have taken as deep as 40% correction. Rough ride. But that’s expected in uranium. All in all, uranium mining shares couldn’t stay at recent all-time highs with a decreasing spot price plus all aforementioned events.
Uranium Catalysts for 2022:
So, what catalysts can get uranium out of this slump in 2022? Here is a list of 12 things:

1. Inclusion of Nuclear into the EU Taxonomy – Nuclear will likely be added to the EU’s taxonomy on environmentally stable economic activities in 2022. This would provide legitimacy for ESG funds, especially climate-focused funds, to pour money into nuclear-related equities. It is a high likelihood uranium mining stocks will benefit. I’m guessing it will be a trickle at first, and as the supply deficit balloons in subsequent years, the money will be huge in relative terms to sector market cap. Final inclusion should occur by the first half of 2022, after the European Parliament and the Council scrutinize it and accept it.

1. Climate Impacts in 2022 – A brutal winter storm which clearly reveals the dangers of dependency on imported fossil fuels and the intermittent renewables can inch nuclear energy into mainstream discussion. If anything, the high prices of electricity is driving Europe to review their energy policies. The same applies to brutal summers. These events can be significant when they occur but steering the masses to nuclear will take time. Early money will place their bets.
2. End of COVID-19 Pandemic – Omicron is so far proving the most transmissible variant thus far but data suggests it is less lethal than Delta. Vaccinations and improvements to treating covid have helped improve immunity and reduce probability of severe illness. Expect economies to bounce back and markets to climb.
3. Chinese Economy – Sometime in 2022, I expect the Chinese economy to prove once again it is the world’s growth engine. With the end of the pandemic comes the end of city-wide lockdowns of millions and a return to “normal”. This is important for the world economy. (The likes of Apple and Tesla obtain substantial percentage of revenues from China. Apple is 6.86% of the S&P 500. Tesla is 1.9%). China isn’t going anywhere, and they’re building the majority of new nuclear power plants and securing uranium supplies while it is cheap. Uranium bulls need China. As a side-note, the trade war will likely persist for all 2022. It is possible inflation tips the political cost-benefits and leaders call off the trade war, but I doubt it.
4. SPUT and URNM – Sprott expects a NYSE listing of their physical uranium trust (SPUT) by the first half 2022. The Northshore Mining Index URNM should also be taken over by Sprott in the next few months. I’m confident they’ll succeed in the NYSE listing. Since inception of the trust, Sprott purchased 23 million lb of uranium between July to the end of 2021. Based on this rate, I’m estimating Sprott buys at least 40 million lb U3O8 in 2022. The bulk of purchases will come after the NYSE listing. That’s a conservative estimate.
5. ANU Energy OEIC, Ltd. – The Kazakhstan-based physical uranium trust will continue to buy and sequester uranium. ANU is a private physical uranium fund, starting with $50 million, and expandable up to $550 million. The initial $50 million should be enough for 1 million lb of U3O8, assuming $50/lb. If private investors provide the other $500 million, that’s another 10 million lb sequestered from the market!
6. Yellow Cake PLC – This London-based physical uranium fund made an announcement on October 26, 2021 to raise $150 million for uranium purchases of about 3 million lb. I suggest investors monitor future announcements.
7. Incentive uranium pricing second half 2022 – John Borshoff, CEO of Deep Yellow and ex-CEO of Paladin Energy, has stated “incentive pricing is going to probably start clicking late next year – enough pricing to incentive new development.” That’s likely $60 per pound by year end, which is about a 50% increase from current prices. John’s reputation and experience within the uranium mining industry is significant. Note, at the start of 2021 until the end of 2021, the spot price went from $30/lb to $42/lb, a 40% increase. In that same period, URNM went up approximately 70%.
8. Long-term contracting begins for US utilities – 2022 will be the first year a portion of US utilities will not be covered for their requirements. As per Yellow Cake PLC, only 84% of US utilities will have their needs covered in 2022. We’ll watch and see how utilities behave.
9. Supply Chain – 2022 should see supply chain issues begin to ease. These issues will not be resolved by the end of 2022 but they theoretically will be improved. As it improves, it eases the capital required to develop uranium mines.
10. Energy and commodities – As the world economies get over covid, prices of oil, natural gas, coal, etc. will remain elevated due to lack of supply and increasing demand. The supply shortage comes from a lack of investment to find new reserves and replace consumption. The same can be said of many commodities such as copper, rare earths, etc. Energy security and independence (a.k.a energy sovereignty) may overtake climate action as the primary motivation to embrace nuclear power.
11. Inflation and interest rate hikes – The Federal Reserve is tapering bond purchases and will start hiking interest rates in the second half of 2022 to combat inflation. I suspect inflation will stick around longer than anticipated due to energy and supply chain woes. Generally, the more energy costs, the more everything costs. Supply chain hell makes it worse. End result, prices go higher. Based on these assumptions, will raising interest rates really curb inflation? The Fed knows this, but they have to raise rates just for legitimacy to its institutional missions (target inflation, maximize employment). Easy money is over and it can create pressure on the market. However, companies with cash flow, who can thrive with minimum input costs versus expansion of revenues will succeed.

Possible Positive Surprises:

1. The U.S. becomes interested in a major nuclear build out – This is unlikely but possible. The current administration has failed to pass the Build Back Better bill. Midterm elections are approaching. This means the US Congress (Senate and House of Representatives) can have a re-allocation of Republican and Democrat votes. We may get surprised if the U.S. leans heavily into nuclear power to lower carbon emissions.
2. China becomes extremely aggressive with uranium purchases – If this occurs, the long-term uranium contracting cycle may happen earlier than expected. The ultimate uranium catalyst. The last time they stepped in was around 2014. Securing long-term contracts a little early would not surprise me. China however has quite a stockpile of uranium already. Year 2024 to 2025 is still the expected time for uranium to take off. We’ll see.
3. If South Korea elects presidential candidate Yoon Suk-yeol, he has publicly said he will export 10 nuclear power plants by 2030 and to resume construction of two nuclear reactors at home. He is critical of the current administration’s nuclear phase-out plan. The election is in March 2022. So far, it’s uncertain who will win. Regardless who wins, the benefit I hope to see is nuclear power policy has more informed debate. Let science prevail in policy.

...

https://esurien.com/2022/01/ur…rt-16-catalysts-for-2022/

Schöne Zusammenfassung …

Link

TOKYO -- Reviving its research efforts in fast reactors, Japan will take part in a U.S.-led project to develop the facilities, seeking access to technology crucial to recycling spent nuclear fuel.
https://asia.nikkei.com/Busine…U.S.-fast-reactor-project

glaube das hatte ich schonmal eingestellt, im rahmen der aufnahme in die taxonomy aber durchaus nochmals einen blick wert
https://www.gen-4.org/gif/uplo…21-09-02_10-23-35_539.pdf

zb:
seite 42 - Table 5: Statistical Mean Total Lifecycle GHG Emissions for various sources of electricity
seite 45 - Table 7: Range of electric power technology emissions

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mit über ca 43% welt produktionsanteil ist kaz von großer bedeutung für den uranmarkt. das ist sicherlich keinem neu der den markt ein wenig kennt.

umso wichtiger ist es die politische entwicklung im auge zu behalten. bitte entschuldigt daher den doppelpost der information Uranaktien: Minen, Explorer, Produzenten, Anwender

https://www.reuters.com/market…er-fuel-price-2022-01-05/

Kazakhstan government resigns after violent protests over fuel price

ALMATY, Jan 5 (Reuters) - Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev accepted the government's resignation on Wednesday, his office said, after a fuel price increase in the oil-rich Central Asian country triggered protests in which nearly 100 police were injured.
Police used tear gas and stun grenades late on Tuesday to drive hundreds of protesters out of the main square in Almaty, the former Soviet republic's biggest city, and clashes resumed on Wednesday.
The protests shook the former Soviet republic's image as a politically stable and tightly controlled country, which it has used to attract hundreds of billions of dollars of foreign investment in its oil and metals industries over three decades of independence.

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